Well, US fans certainly overrate the quality of the player pool. Phrases like "best American talent ever" or "golden generation" have shown up quite frequently. The problem is, those mean little if not contextualized to the rest of the world. St. Kitts and Nevis might be having their best generation too for all I know, but they won't be WC semifinalists. The hype isn't usually expressed in these terms, but I'd say people talk about it as though we're maybe the 10th best talent -- close to even money WC quarterfinalist, at worst 5th in the Western hemisphere. In reality Transfermarkt values our guys 16th in the world, and that is biased toward future value hence toward youth. The Guardian does a top 100 players every year, and no American has been on there any time recently. (They published the 2023 voting spreadsheets and Pulisic was like 160th or 170th if memory serves; 2024 could be a lot better.) It's just not world class talent. But this doesn't have much to do with MLS or with changing the pecking order, such as selecting an entirely new starting XI.
Our pool is filled with many, many solid professionals in different leagues and in a wide array of club situations all over the globe. Its an interesting problem for us fans. It must seem like an impossibly complex puzzle for any manager. Ideally, you'd have a camp where you could split the top 100 players into 5 rosters of 20 and do lots and lots of scrimmages. Mix and match. Have different tactics for different groups of players. Try to figure out who compliments who, etc. But, that's impossible. I do like the fact that the guy from ESPN who rates the players has a rubric that he uses. Maybe the way he weights things isn't perfect, but I'd guess a new manager would almost have to do something like that. If we had a national team manager who could adjust the weights away from their own biases and towards reality that would also be ideal, but probably un realistic. People are stubborn. For example, if I was USMNT manager, I would probably start with too much weight on form the month before a tournament. For me, Pepi on the WC roster was a no brainer. Maybe that's wrong headed. I'd have to observe and adjust. I would probably also over weight technical ability versus physical attributes at the start of my tenure. This tends to lead me towards Euro bias, but not always. I heart Diego Luna due to this bias. Then, you have to accept reality. For example, I think it would have been best for all concerned if Tyler Adams had been left off of the Copa roster.
Both sides of the issues on the extremes are overstated, but of our top flight players: Turner, Ream, Reyna, Musah, Weah and Luca de la Torre were all bench players, benched by the end of the season or rotational at best. De la Torre had a starting run but saw his minutes slide with a coaching change, IIRC. Also, like Weah, he didn't play in his USMNT spot much. Adams was hurt most of the season. Brenden Aaronson was rotational with bigger minutes at the end. Balo was a starter at Monaco, but a sub at the end. So that's 9 of our Top Flight players on the roster who were some level of bench player. Pulisic was a starter and key player. Weston earned back a starting spot and would be an effective complementary player. Jedi is a clear starter and had a good offensive year. Johnny Soccer was a starter. Chris Richards was a stopgap at CDM but has carved out a starting spot at LCB in a back three. Joe Scally had a rough year at times but is still playing for Gladbach. If I had to just take the Top 4/5 players, it'd be: 3 key players for their clubs 3 guys ending at solid/passable starters in limited roles 9 guys of various bench/rotational players None of this is definitive to quality -- Reyna is better than say, Scally, but is in a "worse" bucket. But merely listing league or club ignores the roles some of these guys are playing -- and ignores the fact that guys on the bench here overlaps in ability with lower leagues. We do have guys who are key players at lower leagues -- Dest, Sargent, Haji, CCV, Miles. Tillman, McKenzie, Lund, Moore and Horvath start, etc. But we definitely had a number of guys take a step back for various reasons / not reach the expected potential so far. We had three guys who are important to their Top 4/5 club. One is unassailable. One is important, but he's a LB whose best skill is in defensive transition. And the third is more productive than important to his club, who is actively shopping him. I don't think any of these clubs would bat an eye at anyone leaving. They might flinch at Balo and Musah's potential, maybe Johnny the same? But no one's worried about replacing their production.
Good points. To me, I think of Musah, Weah, LDLT, BA, etc. as rotational players which is different than someone not getting any minutes at all which is where Reyna, Turner, and Ream were at near the end of the year. Now, if we talk about "key players" that's different to me. I think the benchwarmer implication is more simple - lack of minutes contributing to "rust". But, perhaps, this is just a case of nuance being lost on the internetz.
Great post. The downside of assessing form is that it's very subject to statistical noise. One month isn't much sample -- in practice, pre-2026 it's even worse, like 3-4 friendlies right? There are obviously changes in true form. For example Pefok had a tremendous August-September 2022, then a small injury, then struggled to the point of losing a starting job by the time of the Qatar roster. That's easy to explain, although half our fans didn't care because why turn down a flimsy reason to bash Gregg? I agree with taking Pepi but it's sort of a risky, high-reward gamble which is appropriate for your 25th or 26th spot. A coach is in a position to evaluate practice which is a much bigger sample than a month of games, even league games.
Yeah, benchwarmer versus bench versus rotational is all different. I think the actual key here is that even within a top league or top team there's a large difference in player quality and impact. I'd also argue that there's decent overlap between quality of individual players in Top leagues and the next tier down (and so on). There's very few of our players whose current teams would worry about replacing their production if they were to leave. At this point, I think that'd be about 3 guys max at the top level. That doesn't mean they can't be good for us, but the reality is that perhaps being a key player for second tier squad is more valuable than being say, in Tim Weah's role. Tim's up there because he is skilled, he is athletic enough to keep up, but ... would we rather see Haji up top because of how many balls go in the net (and I say this as someone who generally prefers Tim. But not because of club.)
Elite sports is the right tail of a bell curve. From Milan's perspective, there are 10 replacement-level Musahs per one replacement-level Pulišić. So yeah, the non-starting guys may be worthy but replaceable cogs in the machine. Thank you, Bill James, for teaching me this sometime in the 1980s.
but should our eyes override what "the market" (for lack of a better term) says? i think youre making a very valid argument, and i agree its a matter of very small degrees between these two particular players outside of club play/level. but the fact is we are all currently hoping morris gets a fair shake at boro- which sucks (that we have to hope he gets minutes at that level)- while luca has shown and proven enough over time to be where he is. so to repeat myself, and hopefully clarify- there is a gap there.. we can think morris would also do well at a bottom half big 4 all we want but none scraped together the $4m to sign him. im not saying clubs are infallible or the final word but its not like they generally overlook cheap, young options. and its a big world man, a whole lot of teams are wholly indifferent to aiden morris. and luca couldnt get a match at fulham anywhere on their pro/rel (over his time there) spectrum. went to a not-good eredivse side (in a not good eredivise) and showed enough for someone to take a chance on him. hes made the most of it. there arent a bunch of rumors of "bigger" teams coming in for him, and theyve sold some really good players opening up minutes he has been able to step into- there is a ton of good luck that goes into finding a right situation but it makes all the difference. after all the noise of this league vs that league luca is playing almost every week against la liga comp. and a la liga manager is calling his number. thats not theoretical. look, if two academy kids start looking strong enough it could strangle his minutes or even show him the door tomorrow. but he is a proven player at that level. but back to morris- he just isnt yet, at a solidly lower level. he hasnt shown anybody enough yet. i mean us, with hope in our hearts sure, but no one with a really big checkbook. we havent seen him play a minute in the colaship yet. so, for me, luca holds a whole lot of "tiebreakers" in that comparison. and im very much a "feel" guy but that cant override everything. im not saying la liga wins period- shaq moore cashed a few checks there. but we arent talking about a guy whos just there, not playing at all, fighting just to stay up every year. club pedigree can be misleading, but i dont really think it is here. mostly i think morris just isnt there yet. and even divorced from that (club play/level), do you think morris is likely to make a huge impact on the nats right now? in comparison to luca? i mean, hes only marginally behind him (says my eyes), but luca cant even get minutes for us. so unless you think theres a better argument beyond that (meaning cardoso or musahs minutes) is it really a "problem"?
milan, meanwhile, are refusing to entertain any interest in musah (napoli and fiorentina were the two clubs mentioned in an article youre 100% going to have to google yourself if you want verification), so maybe any of us being pissy yunus was pretty crappy against uruguay doesnt influence milans perspective quite as much as youre implying. eta: actually it was way easier to find than i expected, though this isnt the exact article i read its the same story https://sports.yahoo.com/longo-milan-betting-heavily-non-180000768.html "non-transferrable" and "replaceable cogs in the machine" arent synonymous.
The market should be an input. But we should remember the market for players is not the same as a commodities market or the stock market despite people (not necessarily you) often portraying it that way. This is not thousands of people buying and selling the same item to establish a price. This is one person choosing to buy a unique item. The error term is vastly different. The price of a stock is set by thousands or hundred of thousands of transactions coming to a consensus. When Roma buys Bryan Reynolds, the sale price is set at the highest price basically one single team will buy them out. What was the next best bid for Reynolds? In the stock market, it's likely the same price or a penny less. For Reynolds, it might've been half the price he sold for. In other words, errors are far more common. Market efficiency is set by volume, not by expertise. These also aren't financial instruments, to belabor the obvious. Real life considerations like fit on a team, team need, etc. factor in. The transaction fees on selling a stock are existent but small. The cost of changing a player is much larger. Scally is playing for Gladbach but if Scally weren't on Gladbach, would Gladbach venture out to buy him? So yeah, market price and purchases have value in evaluation. But people treat them like they are a consensus market price and they aren't.
I'm not taking any position on Yunus's standing at Milan. It's just an example. The general point is that we're on the right tail of a bell curve, not a full bell curve. For every Bellingham there are 10 Pulisices For every CP there are 10 Musahs. For every Musah there are 10 ... whatever. Even a 4th division benchwarmer is miles ahead of the population mean in soccer skill.
I don't know that you have to construct some MLS vs Europe conflict to see that in many ways the players are overrated by many. I think the MLS group can be overrated as well when people think they can just step in and everything will be OK with good ol' fashioned grit. We have a lot of players at big clubs, but a lot of them don't play much and when they do they're in supporting roles. That's fine and with many of them still young, expected. There is still the potential that some of them become top players. Pulisic has become an important player on a big team, but he is 2-3 years ahead of most of the bunch. But not all of them will pan out and some will always be fill in the gap types, which is fine as you need those to build a team. I think partially we underestimate what it takes to become a really important player on a big team. You need to be as good as Pulisic for that. He's the norm for an impact player at a top club, not a shining exception. Every big team has at least one guy arguably at or above his level and the bigger teams go up from there with multiple guys at his level and usually multiple guys above. And it's clear he's a cut above the rest of the team at this point. So, a lot of our guys have a long way to go. I don't know that Hudson is wrong: “They don’t have a huge amount of depth and they’re still building,” Hudson said. “But unfortunately the perception is because all these players are in big clubs around the world, but they’re not key players in their clubs in Europe. This is where I think it’s a little bit of an illusion about where they’re at." https://prosoccerwire.usatoday.com/...hudson-players-at-big-clubs-creates-illusion/ But, as he also points out, there is a lot of ability and potential. We're just no where near having a squad full of top players. We have one top player and a decent number of role players who are still young and some could eventually be more. And I think we overlook how many national teams have top players. The US pool only stands out in CONCACAF and even here more teams than we admit have at least a few players as good as most of ours.
In Yunus' case, the fact that they won't transfer him is a matter of potential, not production. Which is fine; I'm super excited about Yunus. But if they had to replace his production, there would be zero concern.
Shrug. I think the Euro players on the USMNT are only over-rated if one is comparing them to the best of the best. I don't think anyone is comparing our squad to the ones of Spain and England we'll see today, and think our talent is at that level. I don't see any poster who is that delusional. A USMNT coach has an opportunity throughout a cycle to bring in the foreign and domestic players. Judge them side by side. Its HIS job to evaluate a Euro bench player versus a Liga MX or MLS starter. Its HIS job to evaluate Jack McGlynn or Aidan Morris versus.............say Lennard Maloney. To evaluate Zendejas versus Mihailovic versus Paxten Aaronson versus Taylor Booth and on and on. We judge that coach on the results. People seemed to agree with about 95% of Berhalter's Copa America squad. People quibbling about one or two selections. Shaq Moore and whomever. Now and until the end of time people will be quibbling about selections. There will always be selections we don't agree with. The problem under Berhalter this cycle hasn't been the guys who actually played when the games mattered. Its more about putting those players in a better position to succeed.
Potential is great but it’s more about future versus current production and does nothing for us right now.
1. I know that there was a moment back in 2021 when I was amazed by the club profile and accomplishments of our players. I expected them to be better today than they ended up being. Did I overrate them then, or did their development stall? Probably both. 2. I want our players to start at their clubs, and ideally to be crucial for those clubs. That's not necessarily an MLS v Europe issue -- it could be an EPL v Eredivisie issue, or whatever.
I'd be interested to see a broader context of percent likelihood of development and timelines. I think a LOT of young players stall. A lot of young players get bought and dropped. Is the US % worse than most? I dunno. I think there's no doubt there was overrating by some. Musah's a good one -- fans saw the speed, ball control and dribbling and largely ignored that he simply isn't a very good passer -- poor vision, mediocre execution, and has almost no final third skills. A lot of the folks who would mock final third Nagbe raved about Musah Maneuvers completely ignoring, without irony, that they almost never generated any danger. I still remember early on when Musah held off like three guys in the midfield, dribbling them in circles, and BS and Reddit and TSS was going nuts about him ... and a few of us were like, but he took too long and we didn't even generate numbers? And the reality is that quality and incisive passing isn't EASY to develop. It's not guaranteed to come along. There's a lot of dudes who just are what Musah is. Which is valuable in the right context, but not nearly as valuable as someone who can break lines and create danger far more regularly. What Valencia and Milan are buying on Musah is a gamble on him developing more of that. And if he doesn't, he's still a fine player they can use or sell ... but there's some % chance of him being a really dynamic player. But there's a another, probably larger chance, he doesn't add very much in that space.
I agree that you have to know how people are rating players to say they are overrated. I guess I use the metric that we should make it past the round of 16 which seems pretty common and makes sense if you consider this the best group of USA players ever as often touted. For me, making the round of 16 is a reasonable expectation for this group of players, but anything beyond that will take a very fortuitous draw. And honestly, lots depends on the expanded format. With the expanded format and a #1 seed as host, we should make it out of a group easily. But that round of 32 game could be a real crap shoot. There will be plenty of teams we should beat in that round and as a #1 seed we are likely set up to face one of them. But a couple upsets and a heavy hitter drops a first round game and we could face a lot of really good teams even at that stage. For me, any expectations beyond beyond the final 16, which would put this team in the top 8 teams in the world, is probably overrating this team regardless of the coach.
Aaronson for my money is the most overrated of our Euro players. He went the Salzburg and looked good in part of the fact he was an attacking player on a dominant team. Then small sample Champions League pixie dust (including the two matches against Bayern) et voila you have a pedestrian typical worker bee player touted by some around here as a star.
I don’t know I’d those players are overrated and more that they haven’t quite hit their top potential. Dest had a great season for PSV for instance but his level is not starting right back for Barcelona like we hoped. Musah has a ton of potential but hasn’t really realized it, Reyna same thing plus injuries, and Pepi same thing. Tillman hasn’t really shown it with the US but the talent is definitely there and we’ve seen it with PSV. But that’s all about what those players may do in the future versus what they can do today.
We have to keep reminding ourselves how young most of our players in Europe still are. Think how much better Jedi Robinson is now vs when he was messing around at Wigan when he was 22.