You misread or misunderstood my post. I don't care which players a team chooses to field; that is up to them. The rule is simple: if clubs are required by FIFA rules to release players for a match or tournament, and you play a game representing your country under the helm of your national team coach, that game counts regardless of who you choose to field. Otherwise, if a match or tournament isn't important enough to force clubs to release players, then it isn't important enough to use in the rankings either. p.s. the part you have quoted in bold, refers to something else. It refers to having a side qualify to a tournament like the Arab Cup based on their national team ranking, but fielding not just different players but using a different coach too and calling it something other than their full national team. That point doesn't relate to ranking but rather the fact that the tournament rules in the Arab Cup shouldn't allow such a thing.
Yes, that requirement is what my post was directed towards. If you're going to require a team to field their full national team for the tournament or be disqualified, how would you enforce it when teams have to deal with injuries, ongoing lineup changes, other commitments, etc.? It just seems to me like it would be opening up a can of worms that wouldn't be worth the trouble.
I think you still misunderstand what I am saying, probably because you aren't familiar with what I am referring to re the "FIFA Arab Cup". What I am specifically referring to in that particular context, isn't meddling with what players a side chooses to represent their "full national team". Rather, it refers specifically to teams like Algeria, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia, in contrast to say Tunisia or Egypt or Iraq or Syria etc, coming to the tournament with a team they like to refer to as something other than their national team. In the case of Morocco and Algeria, calling it "Morocco A"/"Algeria A" (by which they mean not what the "A" should mean, but rather that this is NOT our national team), or in the case of Saudi Arabia calling it their U23 team. These teams could use the same exact players if they wished, but with their regular national team coach, and for my purposes and the purposes of the tournament, that would be their choice. But "Morocco A", or "Saudi U23" under a different coach isn't the side that qualified to the tournament based on their FIFA ranking. If I were organizing the event, I wouldn't let them participate in that manner. It is not about players. It is about basically allowing these teams to 'have their cake and eat it too'. Contrast that with the US in the Gold Cup. The US fielded a "C" team in terms of its players, but it was officially their full national team. Under their head coach. That is fine.
It's all a simple fix and this is something that FIFA actually has right and Elo has totally wrong. FIFA counts only 1 continental tournament, the official one by a ratio of x35 whereas these small tourneys count as non FIFA friendlies with a ratio of x5. Therefore these tournaments never have any serious effect. However I have not seen any official info as to what ratio FIFA will use for the Arab cup, because it is an official tournament. I've read that it will be counted as friendly matches but even at that not sure if they will be counted as FIFA window friendlies or non FIFA window friendlies which is a difference of either x5 or x10.
Whereas my ranking is simple World cup matches x3 Continental tournaments x2 Qualifiers, Nations league, FIFA friendlies x1 Non FIFA friendlies, other tournaments are not counted entirely.
I too would give ZERO weight to any match or tournament that takes place without a FIFA mandate for clubs to release players. But if that mandate exists, then the match would have an appropriate weight. For instance, if the "FIFA Arab Cup" included a mandate on clubs to release their players, and was to serve as a stepping stone to the ROW tourney we both want, I would give it a weight similar to 'continental tournaments'. But as long as that condition isn't met, I would give it zero weight.
On the other hand I don't want to completely ignore the Arab cup which will have many teams with decent squads. I dont consider it a "mickey mouse" tournament on the level of the cosafa cup or the home based afcon. I'm thinking I'm going to count them as friendlies with the exceptions of the Morocco, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia squads.
Even though it was their C team, the US actually said "this is our full national team"? How is there even a process for that?
The US participated in the Gold Cup tournament as the US national team, under the head coach of the US national team. Its results were and are counted as official results of the US national team. The fact that it used players that usually don't play or start for the US doesn't change any of that. But there are times when you have tournaments when a country decides to field a side that isn't officially its national team and lists that officially as something other than the full national team It is often coached by someone else and comes to the tournament in a capacity that is meant to indicate this isn't officially our national team. That is what Algeria, Morocco and Saudi Arabia tried to do in the FIFA Arab Cup. edit: I am not sure if their attempt to have their teams classified as something other than their full national teams ultimately was allowed/succeeded. Morocco and Algeria initially were listed as "local teams" (A) (but later added some foreign based players from regional leagues) and Saudi Arabia as U23, but I think the organizers probably didn't allow those designations at the end
My Updated Rankings for December. These include the November Window and the Arab cup (did not include matches for Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Algeria) World Soccer Rankings December 2021 1. Brazil - 79 2. Argentina – 78 3. England - 76 4. Belgium – 75 5. France – 74 6. Italy – 74 7. Spain - 68 8. Denmark – 66 9. Portugal - 66 10. Germany - 59 11. Algeria – 58 12. Holland – 57 13. Switzerland - 54 14. Colombia – 54 15. Uruguay - 54 16. Sweden - 53 17. Serbia - 49 18. Chile – 49 19. Ecuador – 48 20. Peru - 48 21. Croatia – 47 22. Senegal - 47 23. Mexico – 47 24. Poland - 47 25. Iran – 47 26. USA - 46 27. Paraguay - 46 28. Hungary – 46 29. Norway - 45 30. Morocco – 44 31. Czech. Rep. - 44 32. Ukraine – 44 33. Wales - 44 34. Japan - 43 35. Ivory Coast – 43 36. Tunisia – 43 37. Egypt - 43 38. South Korea – 43 39. Turkey - 43 40. Nigeria – 42 41. Russia - 41 42. Ireland R - 41 43. Finland - 41 44. Ghana - 39 45. Australia – 39 46. Austria – 39 47. Venezuela - 39 48. Canada - 38 49. Cameroon - 37 50. Burkina Faso – 37 51. Scotland - 36 52. Romania - 36 53. Mali - 35 54. Greece – 34 55. Saudi Arabia - 34 56. Bolivia – 34 57. Slovakia - 32 58. Bosnia & H – 32 59. South Africa – 32 60. Qatar - 31 61. R. Congo - 31 62. Benin – 31 63. Uganda - 31 64. Macedonia – 30 65. N. Ireland - 30 66. Georgia - 30 67. Cape Verde – 30 68. Panama - 29 69. Costa Rica – 29 70. Slovenia – 28 71. Zambia - 28 72. Israel - 28 73. Gabon - 27 74. Albania – 27 75. Angola – 27 76. Bulgaria – 27 77. Kosovo - 27 78. Bahrain – 27 79. Madagascar - 27 80. Jamaica - 26 81. Comoros – 26 82. Kenya - 26 83. Iceland – 25 84. Iraq - 25 85. E. Guinea – 25 86. Guinea – 24 87. Zimbabwe - 24 88. Montenegro - 24 89. Armenia – 24 90. Mozambique – 24 91. Namibia – 24 92. New Zealand - 23 93. Honduras - 23 94. El Salvador – 23 95. Sierra Leone - 23 96. Gambia – 23 97. Togo - 23 98. Libya – 23 99. Tanzania - 23 100. Haiti – 22
I have tried to correct some errors in my previous ranking, reconsidered the issue on some others, and updated my rankings as follows: (A) 1- France (A-/A) 2- Germany 3- Brazil 4- England 5- Italy 6- Spain 7- Argentina 8- Belgium 9- Portugal (B+/A-) 10- Denmark 11- Switzerland 12- Holland 13- Croatia (B+) 14- Serbia 15 Colombia 16- Sweden 17- Morocco 18- USA 19- Mexico (B/B+) 20- Algeria 21- Senegal 22- Iran 23- South Korea 24- Turkey 25- Russia 26- Ukraine 27- Ecuador 28- Czech Republic 29- Nigeria 30- Peru 31- Wales 32- Uruguay 33- Japan 34- Poland 35- Canada (B) 36- Australia 37- Chile 38- Tunisia 39- Saudi Arabia 40- Austria 41- Scotland 42- Egypt 43- Hungary 44- Greece (B-/B) 45- Ivory Coast 46- Bolivia 47- Cameroon 48- Norway 49- Ghana 50- Venezuela
What's your reasoning behind putting Germany as high as 2nd? That seems a bit flattering to me given that Romania and North Macedonia (both not in your list) were the toughest opposition they played so far under Flick.
Maybe I have been more exposed to the games Germany has played well recently, and stream rolled over the opposition, than the matches you allude to, but while I could change my mind, right now I feel the Germans are back on track. But I moved them up even further mainly because of a conversation here about possible World Cup draws and the realization that occurred to me that I rate Germany that highly.
Here are my updated rankings including the AFCON and the January world cup qualifying matches. 1. Brazil - 82 2. Argentina – 79 3. England - 76 4. Belgium – 75 5. France – 74 6. Italy – 74 7. Spain - 68 8. Portugal - 66 9. Denmark – 66 10. Germany – 59 11. Holland – 57 12. Switzerland – 54 13. Uruguay - 54 14. Sweden - 53 15. Colombia - 53 16. Algeria – 52 17. Ecuador – 50 18. Serbia - 49 19. Peru - 49 20. Iran - 48 21. Croatia – 47 22. Poland – 47 23. Senegal - 46 24. Chile – 46 25. USA - 46 26. Ivory Coast - 46 27. Hungary – 46 28. Mexico – 45 29. Norway – 45 30. Paraguay - 45 31. Morocco – 44 32. Ukraine - 44 33. Czech. R – 44 34. Wales - 44 35. Japan – 43 36. Cameroon - 43 37. South Korea – 43 38. Turkey - 43 39. Canada – 42 40. Egypt - 41 41. Nigeria – 41 42. Russia - 41 43. Ireland R - 41 44. Finland - 41 45. Austria – 39 46. Venezuela - 39 47. Australia – 37 48. Mali – 37 49. Tunisia – 37 50. Burkina Faso - 36 51. Scotland - 36 52. Romania - 36 53. Ghana - 34 54. Bolivia – 34 55. Saudi Arabia – 33 56. Slovakia - 32 57. Bosnia & H – 32 58. E. Guinea – 32 59. South Africa - 32 60. Qatar – 31 61. R. Congo - 31 62. Gabon - 31 63. Cape Verde - 31 64. Benin – 31 65. Georgia – 31 66. N. Ireland - 30 67. Macedonia – 30 68. Uganda - 30 69. Bahrain – 29 70. Panama - 28 71. Costa Rica – 28 72. Slovenia – 28 73. Zambia - 28 74. Gambia – 28 75. Israel - 28 76. Bulgaria - 27 77. Angola - 27 78. Albania – 27 79. Kosovo – 27 80. Madagascar – 27 81. Sierra Leone - 26 82. Comoros – 26 83. Kenya - 26 84. Jamaica - 25 85. Iceland - 25 86. Guinea – 25 87. Iraq - 25 88. Armenia – 24 89. Montenegro – 24 90. Mozambique – 24 91. Namibia - 24 92. Honduras – 23 93. Jordan – 23 94. Zimbabwe - 23 95. Togo - 23 96. Tanzania - 23 97. El Salvador – 22 98. New Zealand - 22 99. Haiti – 22 100. Malawi - 22
Some thoughts.... Canada are a better football team than it's stated in your rankings. Nice to see teams like Ecuador, Serbia or Iran as high as you have them. They deseve it. You're more accurate on Mexico than FIFA and ELO as well. Even as someone who cheers for Croatia the best team from the Balkans is indeed Serbia at the moment. Burkina Faso and Equatorial Guinea are ranked quite nicely now after their AFCON success. Yeah, World Cup hosts Qatar are as mediocre as 60th. I know some guy who thinks that the next EURO winners in Germany 2024 will be a certain nation that is ranked 52nd in your list.... Last but not least. We should be ranked much higher than fellow Kosovo. Your ranking on Albania is off. We are off the back of having beaten the #27 in your list home and away in WCQ. Where's our benefit for that in your list? Did you have us somwhere close to the 100s or why we don't move up as much?
@vancity eagle The results from your rankings, with few exceptions, are pretty good. I would have thought, however, that Algeria would have dropped significantly in your ranking system after AFCON.
I personally believe Canada are better than where I have them at #39, same as I also believe Nigeria is better than where I have them at #41. But the formula is the formula. No ranking is perfect. The reason Canada is not higher in my ranking is because Gold cup games are worth double the amount the WCQ games are. Canada still has poor results from the last 2 Gold Cup tournaments in 2021 and 2019 bringing their average down. Once these results start to get replaced their average will go up. Ecuador is playing in Conmebol which is the Confederation with the most amount of points to be won on average, by far. They've proven themselves against many top teams there. So even though my rankings had them very low roughly a year ago (same as FIFA) they were able to climb highly from getting many good results against top 20 teams. FIFA takes forever to react whether positive or negative. Serbia has always been a very good team. Iran believe it or not are still benefiting from their WC2018 showing in my rankings. Those will soon be replaced and they will likely drop. the main beneficiary of FIFA's flawed rankings is Concacaf. Equatorial Guinea shot up, but Burkina Faso are actually roughly where I had them before the tournament. So I guess my rankings were generally right about them. very very poor results against the Euro teams in that WCQ group they took part in made them skyrocket down. I had them in the 20's after their Asian Cup win in 2019. at one point according to my rankings Kosovo was the most underrated UEFA team by FIFA. They are still at #111 while I have them at #79 With regards to Albania, they just have too many losses to bring their average down. Their 2 victories against Hungary alone cannot overcome such a low average. They would have to consistently beat or tie against stronger teams (which they did not play in Nations League)[/QUOTE]
they dropped 5 places. they still have a very strong showing at AFCON 2019 and their winning streak holding them up. Same way Iran's WC 2018 is still holding them up even after losing to Bahrain and Iraq.
You mean Iran going undefeated throughout 2021 (one of only 3 teams in the world, the others Argentina and Algeria), and having a record of 14 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in its last 15 matches. has nothing to do with it? I think I like the results from your rankings more than the methodology you explain. Iran did lose to Bahrain in Bahrain, and Iraq in Iraq. But that was a couple years ago. At that time, Iran's ranking should have suffered (and did). But soon thereafter, we faced Bahrain in Bahrain again (AFC moving our home WCQs to Bahrain!), beating them 3:0. We have since played Iraq in 3 WCQ games, beating them each time including 3:0. Never mind Algeria going against the same exact teams that beat them in AFCON, and beat them convincingly in the same venue: if you had Algeria at #16 after they (hopefully) win their playoff against Cameroon, I wouldn't be as surprised. But at this very moment in time, Algeria being rated #16 perhaps shows they weren't #11 before AFCON either -- and can't claim being 16th today.
In the last 4 plus years, going back to the 2019 Asian Cup Iran hasn't even beaten one top 50 team. Not one. The closest was beating Bosnia in a friendly. Bosnia are usually a team that hovers just outside the top 50 in my rankings. In that same time period, Algeria has beaten Senegal twice in afcon Nigeria once in afcon Nigeria once in friendly Ghana once in a friendly Qatar at the Asian cup Tunisia twice in a friendly Colombia in a friendly thats 9 victories over top 50 teams for Algeria and ZERO for Iran in the same time period. If Algeria shouldn't be #16 then Iran definately shouldn't be #20. Like I said Iran in my rankings is being boosted from their World Cup performance. Once they lose or draw games these games will be wiped out and they may even drop quite drastically. simply winning games against any opponents doesn't get you that far in my ranking. Unless you beat them by many goals, which more often than not Iran hasn't done.
I'm saying after this AFCON, it is surprising that Algeria would still rate as highly in your formula. If we want to also use friendly results and go back a little further in time when friendly games were more prevalent before Covid, teams that Iran has defeated the past 5 years include: Chile (2:0 in 2015 in Europe), Macedonia (3:1 in Macedonia in 2016), Montenegro (2:1 in Montenegro in 2017), South Korea (1:0 in WCQ-2018 in Tehran), Venezuela (1:0 in Europe in 2018), Algeria (2:1 in 2018 in Europe), Morocco in WC98, Bolivia (2:1 in Tehran in 2018), Qatar (2:1 in Qatar in 2019), Bosnia (2:0 in Bosnia in 2020), along with the likes of Panama, Trinidad & Tobago et al and a few others I must have missed. I should mention, in any case, that I think numerical rankings are misleading. They overstate and exaggerate differences between roughly comparable sides and, in other instances, don't properly illuminate on the real differences between teams that are proportionally more apart in points earned than their numerical rank. I prefer grades informed by ELO/FIFA points earned by each team, adjusted when I think there are issues to consider in some cases (e.g. CAF teams).
I can see both sides of the argument on this point. But while some of Iran's wins have been narrow wins, Iran has had many high scoring games against these Asian teams: 5:0, 3:0, and 3:0 against Syria the past couple of years; 3:0 against Bahrain, 3:0 against Iraq, not to mention 14:0 type scores against minnows.
Well they would have been rewarded for those wins with decent points. Iran's point average right now is 48. They'd get around 50 points for a 3 goal victory over Bahrain or a similarly ranked side. Beating them by a lone goal would only be worth 30 points and not much help to their average. The 14-0 against really weak teams count for nothing. You've got to at least be a minimum standard.
IMHO, you shouldn't make a priori judgments or ignore any results: just give them much less weight. The Cambodia team Iran beat 14:0 and 10:0, nearly snatched a draw against Bahrain (lost 1:0 at the end) and gave Iraq a lot of trouble despite losing to them 4:1. Once upon a time, back in 1997, Iran broke the then record for the must lopsided WCQ match, beating the Maldives 17:0. And while the Maldives improved and even upset S.Korea in one WCQ game to earn a draw, until Queiroz, Iran still had no problems running up the score against them. But a few years later, Carlos Queiroz managed only a 1:0 win against them.
You seem to assume that Iran can't match their 2018 performance. Maybe they schedule friendlies with Top 30 sides and get positive results and go to the World Cup and make it out of the group this time. That would cement their status as a solid Top 20 team at the very least. Albania will play Russia, Israel and Iceland in the Nations League. I'm hopeful we'll achieve results that will see us rise further in all rankungs.