ELO ranks Belgium 10th, Italy 14th, and Mexico 25th. About right and close enough to how I would rank them. (Iran is ranked similarly as FIFA at 21 by ELO).
Maybe I'm reading too much into their Asian Cup run, but why the skepticism on Iran? I'll hear arguments for Denmark, Austria and Türkiye being better, but I'd bet on Iran against any of the rest of the 10 sides below them.
I am not terribly optimistic about the future partly because Iran's younger talents have so far failed to impress much while the team on the whole will have to begin the process of transitioning many of its older veteran players. But as of here and now, your evaluation and impression sounds correct. Iran is basically a top 30 team, and based on its overall results, around how it is ranked by FIFA/ELO.
Well 3 of those remaining 7 teams I also consider overrated according to my rankings (Sweden, Wales, Poland) So yeah they'd be in around the same company as Iran IMO. I dont think Iran would be favored against Ecuador either, although that game could go either way. I also don't know if I'd favor Iran over Asian competitors South Korea or Australia, but again any result is fairly likely. Iran IMO had one really good game in the Asian Cup (victory over Japan) The rest was mediocre. Drawing against Syria, losing to Qatar, and barely beating Hong Kong. Those 3 teams are very poor.
Yeah I don't really agree with this after Japan's Asian Cup. Their world cup results are keeping them very high. While other teams who had good world cups are having those results replaced at a faster rate than Japan's. In my formula your results don't get replaced until you lose or draw matches. Other teams in more competitive confederations are more prone to losing and drawing matches.
Iran's record at the Asian Cup is more accurately described as follows: Iran won its group with maximum 9 points defeating Palestine 4:1, Hong Kong 1:0, and the UAE 2:1. It then eliminated Syria on penalties (after a 1:1 draw a.et), defeated Japan 2:1 in the quarterfinal but lost to hosts and eventual champions Qatar 3:2 in the semifinal.
The loss to Qatar (the only loss Iran has suffered in 21+ games since the World Cup) was clearly disappointing but Iran did alright overall. In fact, if anything, Iran's results and performances since WC22 have surpassed my guarded expectations. But the trajectory of things might not be as bright for Iran looking ahead. In fact, despite getting the WCQ group that on paper is arguably the most straight forward one for Iran, I know the slightest complacency (or any of the kind of extraneous pressures and largely self-made controversies that constantly lurk just underneath the surface of Iranian football), can easily see Iran stumble. The gap between Iran and these teams is not as great as the historic h2h results and rankings would suggest. To beat most of them, Iran will have to play at its best. That is very obvious to me.
Updated ranking after last September window World Soccer Rankings September 2024 1. Spain - 87 2. Argentina – 86 3. Colombia – 81 4. Japan - 74 5. France – 73 6. Portugal - 72 7. Netherlands - 72 8. Germany - 71 9. England – 70 10. Uruguay - 66 11. Brazil – 65 12. Morocco - 63 13. Croatia - 62 14. Austria – 61 15. Senegal - 58 16. Belgium – 57 17. Switzerland - 55 18. Italy - 55 19. Ecuador - 54 20. Denmark - 52 21. Australia – 52 22. USA - 51 23. Turkey - 51 24. Slovenia – 50 25. Venezuela - 50 26. Hungary – 49 27. Ivory Coast – 47 28. Tunisia - 47 29. Iran – 47 30. Norway - 47 31. Mali – 47 32. Serbia – 46 33. Ukraine - 46 34. Canada – 45 35. Mexico – 45 36. Nigeria - 44 37. Cameroon – 44 38. Poland - 44 39. Georgia – 44 40. Greece – 44 41. South Africa - 44 42. Algeria – 43 43. South Korea - 43 44. Peru - 42 45. Panama - 42 46. Czechia – 41 47. Slovakia - 41 48. Cape Verde – 41 49. Sweden – 40 50. Egypt - 40 51. Wales - 40 52. R. Congo - 40 53. Ireland R – 39 54. Russia - 39 55. Scotland - 38 56. Angola – 38 57. Romania - 36 58. Paraguay – 36 59. Saudi Arabia - 36 60. Chile - 36 61. Albania – 36 62. Ghana – 35 63. Jordan - 35 64. E. Guinea – 35 65. Guinea - 33 66. Bolivia – 33 67. Finland – 33 68. Qatar - 32 69. Costa Rica – 32 70. Jamaica – 32 71. Uzbekistan - 32 72. Burkina Faso – 31 73. Zambia - 30 74. Bulgaria – 30 75. Mauritania – 29 76. Namibia - 29 77. Gabon – 28 78. Macedonia – 28 79. N. Ireland - 28 80. Montenegro - 28 81. Comoros – 28 82. Kenya – 28 83. Kosovo - 27 84. Iraq - 27 85. Iceland - 27 86. Benin – 27 87. Bosnia & H – 27 88. Togo - 27 89. Kazakhstan - 26 90. Israel – 25 91. Mozambique – 25 92. Tanzania - 25 93. Rwanda - 24 94. Luxembourg – 24 95. New Zealand – 23 96. UAE - 23 97. Honduras - 23 98. Gambia - 23 99. Armenia – 23 100. Azerbaijan – 23
The Rest 101.Sierra Leone - 23 102. Bahrain – 22 103. Guinea Bissau – 22 104. Madagascar - 22 105. Central Africa R – 22 106. Zimbabwe - 21 107. Uganda - 21 108. Lesotho - 21 109. Guatemala – 20 110. Libya - 20 111. Ethiopia – 20 112. Malawi – 20 113. Sudan - 19 114. El Salvador – 19 115. Haiti - 19 116. Burundi – 19 117. Oman - 18 118. Moldova - 18 119. Syria - 17 120. Congo – 17 121. Niger - 17 122. Liberia - 17 123. Belarus – 17 124. Botswana - 17 125. Latvia -17 126. Trinidad & T - 16 127. N. Korea – 16 128. Tajikistan - 16 129. Eswatini - 16 130. Lithuania - 16 131. Estonia – 16 132. Indonesia - 15 133. Cyprus - 15 134. Chad – 15 135. Faroe Islands – 15 136. Lebanon - 14 137. China – 14 138. South Sudan - 14 139. Malta - 14 140. Curacao – 14 141. Kuwait – 13 142. Palestine – 13 143. Thailand - 13 144. Eritrea – 13 145. Kyrzgystan – 12 146. Vietnam - 12 147. Malaysia – 12 148. Turkmenistan - 11 149. Suriname - 10 150. Nicaragua - 10 151. Andorra – 10 152. India – 10 153. Somalia - 10 154. Cuba – 9 155. Hong Kong - 9 156. Bermuda – 8 157. Guyana – 7 158. Sao Tome - 6 159. Mauritius - 6 160. Leicheinstein – 6 161. Phillipines – 6 162. Djibouti – 6 163. Yemen - 6 164. Singapore - 6 165. Afghanistan – 6 166. Dominican R – 5 167. Puerto Rico - 5 168. Grenada – 5 169. Montserrat - 5 170. Gibraltar – 5 171. Seychelles – 4 172. Tahiti - 4
Check out my Top 150 Ranking down below via the Twitter posts or visit Kassiesa.net (link down below) if Tweets are not visible for you. Thanks https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?p=606031#p606031 🚨👮 BREAKING❗⚽🌐 Top 150 Ranking1. 🇪🇦 ESP 89.5 (+3.5)2. 🇦🇷 ARG 88.5 (-0.5)3. 🏴 ENG 88 (-0.5)4. 🇨🇵 FRA 875. 🇩🇪 GER 86.5 (+1.5)6. 🇵🇹 POR 85.5 (-0.5)7. 🇳🇱 NED 85 (+3)8. 🇨🇴 COL 85 (+1)9. 🇧🇷 BRA 84.5 (-1)10. 🇮🇹 ITA 84 (-1.5)11. 🇭🇷 CRO 83.5 (+0.5)12. 🇲🇦 MAR 83 (+2)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 13. 🇨🇭 SUI 83 (+4)14. 🇺🇾 URU 82.5 (-1.5)15. 🇯🇵 JPN 8216. 🇦🇹 AUT 82 (-1)17. 🇧🇪 BEL 81.5 (-1.5)18. 🇩🇰 DEN 81.5 (+2.5)19. 🇨🇮 CIV 81 (+1.5)20. 🇸🇳 SEN 80.5 (-2)21. 🇹🇷 TUR 80.5 (+2.5)22. 🇸🇰 SVK 80.5 (+2.5)23. 🇪🇨 ECU 79.5 (-1.5)24. 🇷🇸 SRB 79.5 (+0.5)25. 🇸🇮 SVN 79.5 (+2)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 26. 🇰🇷 KOR 7927. 🇮🇷 IRN 7928. 🇺🇦 UKR 79 (-2.5)29. 🇺🇲 USA 78.5 (-0.5)30. 🇵🇱 POL 78.5 (1.5)31. 🇪🇬 EGY 78 (+0.5)32. 🇷🇺 RUS 78 (+0.5)33. 🇭🇺 HUN 78 (-4)34. 🇵🇾 PAR 78 (+1)35. 🇨🇦 CAN 77.5 (+1)36. 🇨🇿 CZE 77.537. 🇨🇩 COD 77.5 (+1)38. 🇳🇴 NOR 77.5 (+1)39. 🇲🇽 MEX 77— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 40. 🇳🇬 NGA 77 (-1)41. 🇦🇱 ALB 77 (+1.5)42. 🇬🇪 GEO 77 (+2)43. 🏴 WAL 76.544. 🇸🇪 SWE 76.5 (+1)45. 🇬🇷 GRE 76.5 (-0.5)46. 🇦🇺 AUS 76 (-2)47. 🇬🇭 GHA 76 (+4)48. 🇸🇦 KSA 76 (+1)49. 🏴 SCO 76 (-2)50. 🇷🇴 ROU 76 (+2)51. 🇻🇪 VEN 76 (-2.5)52. 🇩🇿 ALG 75.5 (+1)53. 🇨🇱 CHI 75.5 (-4.5)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 54. 🇿🇦 RSA 75.5 (+0.5)55. 🇺🇿 UZB 75.5 (+0.5)56. 🇨🇲 CMR 7557. 🇹🇳 TUN 75 (-1.5)58. 🇵🇦 PAN 75 (+2.5)59. 🇮🇸 ISL 75 (+0.5)60. 🇦🇴 ANG 75 (+0.5)61. 🇨🇷 CRC 74.5 (+3.5)62. 🇮🇶 IRQ 74.5 (-1)63. 🇧🇫 BFA 74 (-1)64. 🇵🇪 PER 73.5 (-0.5)65. 🇲🇰 MKD 73.5 (-0.5)66. 🇯🇲 JAM 73.5 (-1)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024
67. 🇶🇦 QAT 73 (-2.5)68. 🇲🇱 MLI 73 (-4.5)69. 🇫🇮 FIN 7370. 🇦🇲 ARM 7371. 🇳🇿 NZL 72.572. 🇧🇴 BOL 72.5 (+3)73. 🇮🇪 IRL 72.5 (-1)74. 🇬🇦 GAB 72.5 (+0.5)75. 🇯🇴 JOR 72.576. 🇬🇳 GUI 72.5 (-1)77. 🇦🇪 UAE 72 (+2)78. 🇧🇦 BIH 72 (+4)79. 🇬🇲 GAM 72 (+2.5)80. 🇲🇪 MNE 71.5 (-2)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 81. 🇨🇻 CPV 71 (-4)82. 🇧🇯 BEN 71 (+5.5)83. 🇿🇲 ZAM 71 (+1.5)84. 🇽🇰 KOS 71 (-2.5)85. 🇭🇳 HON 71 (+0.5)86. 🇲🇿 MOZ 70.5 (+1.5)87. 🇰🇵 PRK 70.5 (+3)88. 🇦🇿 AZE 70.5 (+2)89. 🇰🇲 COM 70.5 (-1)90. 🇮🇱 ISR 70 (+0.5)91. 🇬🇧 NIR 70 (-1)92. 🇧🇬 BUL 70 (+2)93. 🇸🇩 SDN 70 (+4)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 94. 🇬🇶 EQG 69.5 (-6)95. 🇳🇦 NAM 69.596. 🇱🇺 LUX 69 (-2)97. 🇰🇪 KEN 69 (-2)98. 🇲🇬 MAD 69 (+2.5)99. 🇬🇹 GUA 69 (+0.5)100. 🇮🇩 IDN 69 (+2.5)101. 🇧🇭 BHR 68.5102. 🇰🇿 KAZ 68.5103. 🇹🇿 TAN 68 (+2)104. 🇸🇾 SYR 68 (+0.5)105. 🇭🇹 HAI 68 (+1.5)106. 🇨🇫 CTA 68 (+1.5)107. 🇴🇲 OMA 67.5— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 108. 🇺🇬 UGA 67.5 (+2.5)109. 🇹🇬 TOG 67.5 (-2)110. 🇬🇼 GNB 67.5 (+1)111. 🇵🇸 PLE 67.5 (+1)112. 🇹🇭 THA 67.5 (+0.5)113. 🇲🇩 MDA 67.5 (-1)114. 🇧🇾 BLR 67 (+1.5)115. 🇲🇷 MTN 67 (-3.5)116. 🇷🇼 RWA 67 (+3.5)117. 🇸🇷 SUR 66.5 (+1.5)118. 🇹🇯 TJK 66 (-1.5)119. 🇱🇾 LBY 66 (-3)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 120. 🇿🇼 ZIM 66 (-1)121. 🇨🇾 CYP 65.5 (+1)122. 🇨🇳 CHN 65 (-1)123. 🇳🇪 NIG 65 (+2)124. 🇧🇮 BDI 65125. 🇸🇱 SLE 65 (+1)126. 🇰🇬 KGZ 65 (+2)127. 🇱🇻 LVA 64 (-1)128. 🇱🇹 LTU 64 (+0.5)129. 🇲🇾 MAS 64 (+1)130. 🇹🇹 TRI 64 (-3)131. 🇱🇧 LBN 63.5132. 🇰🇼 KUW 63.5133. 🇨🇬 CGO 63.5 (-4)— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024
134. 🇲🇼 MWI 63.5 (-0.5)135. 🇫🇴 FRO 63.5 (+1)136. 🇨🇼 CUW 63137. 🇳🇮 NCA 63 (+1.5)138. 🇱🇷 LBR 63 (+1.5)139. 🇪🇪 EST 63140. 🇱🇸 LES 63 (+0.5)141. 🇲🇹 MLT 63 (-1)142. 🇻🇳 VIE 62.5 (-0.5)143. 🇸🇻 SLV 62.5144. 🇪🇹 ETH 62.5 (+0.5)145. 🇧🇼 BOT 62.5 (-1.5)146. 🇩🇴 DOM 62 NEW— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024 147. 🇸🇿 SWZ 61.5 (+0.5)148. 🇨🇺 CUB 61 NEW149. 🇹🇩 CHA 61 NEW150. 🇲🇺 MRI 61 NEWOverview Top 15051x 🇪🇺 UEFA48x 🌍 CAF24x 🌏 AFC16x 🌎 CONCACAF 10x 🌎 CONMEBOL 1x 🌏 OFC🚨 Next update: Early November— International Football Guru SK ⚽🇩🇪🗺️ (@sk_football1907) October 5, 2024
In my TOP 30 18x UEFA (60%) 5x CONMEBOL (17%) 3x CAF (10%) 3x AFC (10%) 1x CONCACAF (3%) vancity eagle 16x UEFA (53%) 6x CONMEBOL (20%) 4x CAF (13%) 3x AFC (10%) 1x CONCACAF (1%)
In my TOP 50 29x UEFA (58%) 7x CAF (14%) 6x CONMEBOL (12%) 5x AFC (10%) 3x CONCACAF (6%) vancity eagle 24x UEFA (48%) 11x CAF (22%) 7x CONMEBOL (14%) 4x AFC (8%) 4x CONCACAF (8%)
In my TOP 70 33x UEFA (47%) 14x CAF (20%) 9x CONMEBOL (13%) 8x AFC (11%) 6x CONCACAF (9%) vancity eagle 31x UEFA (44%) 16x CAF (23%) 10x CONMEBOL (14%) 6x AFC (9%) 6x CONCACAF (9%)
In my TOP 100 42x UEFA (42%) 27x CAF (27%) 12x AFC (12%) 10x CONMEBOL (10%) 8x CONCACAF (8%) 1x OFC (1%) vancity eagle 43x UEFA (43%) 29x CAF (29%) 10x CONMEBOL (10%) 9x AFC (9%) 7x CONCACAF (7%) 1x OFC (1%)
Looking at the slots per confederation there's an interesting picture. For the top 70 and top 100 there's no very significant differences. Yeah, to my surprise vancity eagle actually doesn't inflate CAF teams' ranking overly much in his top 70 and in his top 100. The major talking points are the differences in the top 30 and top 50. UEFA are much more representated in my top 30 (7% difference to vancity eagle) and especially top 50 (a whopping 10% difference to vancity eagle). The only section where vancity eagle's ranking is guilty of overrating CAF is in the top 50. While he has 11 CAF teams in that section it's only 7 for me.
Overrated by vancity eagle Mauritania - 40 places Mali - 37 places Cape Verde - 33 places Ethiopia - 33 places Lesotho - 32 places Equatorial Guinea - 30 places El Salvador - 29 places Tunisia - 29 places Venezuela - 26 places Australia - 25 places Sierra Leone - 24 places Rwanda - 23 places Malawi - 22 places Togo - 21 places Botswana - 21 places Republic of Ireland - 20 places Peru - 20 places Namibia - 19 places Cameroon - 19 places Eswatini - 18 places Bulgaria - 18 places Liberia - 16 places Chad - 15 places Kenya - 15 places Zimbabwe - 14 places Congo - 13 places Panama - 13 places South Africa - 13 places Kazakhstan - 13 places Northern Ireland - 12 places Jordan - 12 places Tanzania - 11 places Guinea - 11 places Japan - 11 places Zambia - 10 places Algeria - 10 places
Underrated by vancity eagle North Korea - 40 places Indonesia - 32 places Suriname - 32 places Thailand - 31 places Palestine - 31 places Armenia - 29 places Iceland - 26 places Slovakia - 25 places New Zealand - 24 places Paraguay - 24 places Iraq - 22 places Russia - 22 places Sudan - 20 places Albania - 20 places Dominican Republic - 20 places Kyrgyzstan - 19 places Egypt - 19 places UAE - 19 places Gambia - 19 places Malaysia - 18 places South Korea - 17 places Uzbekistan - 16 places DR Congo - 15 places Ghana - 15 places China - 15 places Syria - 15 places North Macedonia - 13 places Nicaragua - 13 places Azerbaijan - 12 places Honduras - 12 places Cyprus - 12 places Saudi Arabia - 11 places Czechia - 10 places Tajikistan - 10 places Oman - 10 places Haiti - 10 places Guatemala - 10 places
In an ideal world it would be extraordinarily exciting if someone could call Mauritania, Mali, North Korea and Indonesia and their FAs and organise some four nations tournament. The by vancity eagle two most overrated sides vs the by him two most underrated sides. If we go off his ranking the African sides would be supposed to smash both Asian sides. The reality though I'm pretty sure would be very different. Among these sides I rate still Mali overall the strongest. But North Korea and Indonesia would give them a run for their money. Mauritania would probably finish last in that tourney. Their little AFCON 'run' is extremely overrated. They are not a good side. Prove of that has been the World Cup qualifiers were they've been doing poorly.
Our top 30's aren't all that different. I just have 1 extra CAF and Conmebol team than you. 2 less Uefa, and same AFC and Concacaf. It's very minor differences. The biggest difference appears to be how we see the top 50. I have 5 less UEFA teams and 4 more CAF teams. Tunisia, Cameroon, Mali, and South Africa are the teams you don't rate in the top 50. I think you are wrong here. You've continued your disregard for Cameroon from before the last WC when you were embarrassed as they defeated Brazil and drew against your dark horse pick Serbia. Cameroon is definately better than you have them, as are Mali who embarrassed Saudi Arabia (who you rate above them) by beating them 4-1 in a friendly played in Portugal where they were missing half of their squad and still missed many chances. Algeria will also beat quite a few teams you've rated above them. South Africa might be the only team I'd question their top 50 status. Their record is very on and off.
Statistical breakdown Average rating of top 10 ranked teams by me per confederation UEFA ~ 85.40 CONMEBOL ~ 79.55 CAF ~ 77.90 AFC ~ 75.95 CONCACAF ~ 73.05 I think these figures show pretty much the current pecking order of international football currently
Like I stated earlier Mali already trounced Saudi Arabia 4-1 (missing half their squad) not even a year ago. It could have been much uglier if Mali could finish better. Saudi Arabia is substantially better than both North Korea and Inonesia.