I only use friendlies during FIFA windows. And if a team has 0 first team players (like was the case with yesterday's friendly) I dont count it either. This is why ELO rankings are very poor, especially when it comes to ranking African sides who play far more matches with B or C teams than any other confederation. They have entire tournaments with C teams that can seriously effect your ranking even though it's not the real team.
I didn't know Elo rankings included such results. I think any reliable ranking should not include friendlies whatsoever.
ELO use the below weightings 60 for World Cup finals; 50 for continental championship finals and major intercontinental tournaments; 40 for World Cup and continental qualifiers and major tournaments; 30 for all other tournaments; 20 for friendly matches. Fifa use the below 05 Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows 10 Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions 25 Qualification matches for Confederations final competitions and for FIFA World Cup final competitions 35 Confederation final competition matches up until the QF stage 40 Confederation final competition matches from the QF stage onwards; all FIFA Confederations Cup matches 50 FIFA World Cup final competition matches up until QF stage 60 FIFA World Cup final competition matches from QF stage onwards You can argue the relative weightings but I think friendlies should be counted (at a reduced weighting). FIFA differentiate between non window friendlies and window friendlies which they should. They also weight friendlies less than ELO. Friendlies happen less often these days in some parts of the world but they are still pretty important in others and also amongst lower ranked nations. FIFA also has some point savings conditions for knockout matches in major tournaments.
Thanks, I remember now that FIFA use weightings depending on the game's status, definitely helps make the ranking more accurate.
There's the major flaw of Elo and why the African teams are so off. Major tournaments 40 All other tournaments 30 Those tournaments for strictly domestic based players are worth nearly as much as the afcon. I think friendlies should be counted (fifa window only). The non window friendlies shouldn't count at all, but I actually think FIFA doesn't make the fifa window ones count enough. Their system is very unreactive overall, while Elos is overreactive.
Going back to our discussion about Indonesia. They just drew a friendly match with Tanzania 0-0 at home. The Tanzania team had 2 starters from their last afcon Match, while Indonesia had 6 starters from their last world cup qualifier where they beat Vietnam 3-0. This leads to the obvious conclusion that Tanzania is a stronger side. Your rankings have Indonesia at #110 and Tanzania at #115 Mine have Indonesia at #146 and Tanzania at #92 FIFA has Tanzania at #119 and Indonesia at #134
I watched the game. Tanzania played actually with 3 starters. (Manula, Husseini and Mkami - all these players started all 3 games at AFCON 2023) These are the goalkepper, the left back and a center mid. But doesn't change much on the narrative. Indonesia was previously 64.5 rated by me. I bumped up their rating to 67 for having beaten Vietnam home and away last window. I had sensed that that upgrade was a tad bit too generous (should have rather upgraded them to 66.5 at best) Well, both teams had chances. Indonesia hit the crossbar in the second half and was overall slightly closer to win. Tanzania are for now slightly better than them. But Indonesia have great potential and will if not in the next months certainly so in the next 1-2 years surpass Tanzania. You definately gotta fix up your ranking for Indonesia. While it's possible to argue that I have them slightly too high as of now you have them significantly too low I feel.
Indonesia is on an upward trajectory, so as long as they get results similar to what they have been getting and not results like (Libya 4 Indonesia 0, Iran 5 Indonesia 0, Iraq 5 Indonesia 1, Australia 4 Indonesia 0) then they will go up. But as you can see, some very poor results even very recently, so no I don't think my ranking is particularly harsh on them.
totally agree with you. friendly matches are nonsense to be used for ranking and also other historical data. so many reasons for that. 1) teams are in different phases, for one team it is a tournament prep, for the other just a friendly 2.) 2nd line players used for testing 3.) different rules on substitutions
Indonesia 0 Iraq 2 They lost to Iraq at home. Went down to 10 men around the 55th minute and it was 0-0 at that point. Well at least it's better than 5-1 they lost to Iraq last time.
It was expected that they would lose. I predicted a 1-0 Iraq win. They had their chances though. I counted three very good chances. One of them when they were one man down. They show that they are a side who treatens to break through in the next couple of years. For now they are not top 100 material. But the potential is there. And they'll get there.
My updated ranking after Summer matches World Cup qualifying, Euro, and Copa World Soccer Rankings July 2024 1. Argentina – 87 2. Spain – 84 3. Colombia - 79 4. France - 77 5. Netherlands - 73 6. Japan – 73 7. Portugal – 72 8. England - 70 9. Uruguay - 68 10. Brazil - 68 11. Germany - 67 12. Croatia – 63 13. Morocco – 63 14. Austria - 60 15. Belgium - 60 16. Senegal – 59 17. Switzerland - 57 18. Ecuador - 55 19. USA - 55 20. Hungary - 54 21. Australia – 53 22. Italy – 52 23. Turkey - 50 24. Slovenia - 50 25. Denmark – 49 26. Venezuela - 49 27. Ukraine - 48 28. Mali – 48 29. Serbia – 47 30. Tunisia - 47 31. Ivory Coast - 46 32. Iran – 46 33. S. Korea – 46 34. South Africa - 45 35. Poland - 45 36. Norway - 45 37. Cameroon – 44 38. Mexico – 44 39. Nigeria – 43 40. Canada - 43 41. Panama - 42 42. Slovakia - 41 43. Scotland - 41 44. Czechia – 41 45. Peru - 41 46. Greece - 41 47. Algeria – 40 48. Sweden – 40 49. Wales - 40 50. Cape Verde – 40 51. Russia – 39 52. R. Congo – 39 53. Georgia - 39 54. Chile – 39 55. Ireland Rep - 39 56. Ghana - 38 57. Egypt – 38 58. Saudi Arabia - 37 59. Jordan - 36 60. Angola – 36 61. Finland – 36 62. Albania – 35 63. E. Guinea – 35 64. Romania - 34 65. Guinea – 34 66. Qatar – 33 67. Paraguay - 33 68. Uzbekistan – 32 69. Costa Rica - 31 70. Jamaica - 31 71. Zambia - 29 72. Burkina Faso - 29 73. Bulgaria – 29 74. Montenegro – 29 75. Bolivia - 29 76. Namibia - 29 77. Iraq – 28 78. N. Ireland - 28 79. Gabon – 28 80. Mauritania - 28 81. Kosovo - 27 82. Benin – 27 83. Kenya - 27 84. Bosnia & H – 27 85. Macedonia - 27 86. Comoros – 27 87. Israel – 26 88. Togo - 26 89. Iceland – 25 90. Tanzania - 25 91. Luxembourg – 25 92. Mozambique - 24 93. Madagascar - 24 94. Kazakhstan - 24 95. Gambia – 23 96. Rwanda - 23 97. Azerbaijan – 23 98. Guinea Bissau – 23 99. Sierra Leone – 23 100. UAE - 22
the rest 101. Ethiopia – 22 102. New Zealand - 21 103. Honduras - 21 104. Bahrain - 21 105. Armenia – 21 106. Central Africa Rep – 21 107. Malawi - 21 108. Lesotho – 21 109. Libya – 20 110. Sudan - 19 111. Guatemala – 19 112. Oman – 19 113. Zimbabwe - 19 114. Haiti - 19 115. El Salvador – 19 116. Uganda - 19 117. Moldova - 18 118. Burundi - 18 119. Botswana – 18 120. Syria – 17 121. Tajikistan - 17 122. Liberia - 17 123. Belarus – 17 124. Niger - 17 125. Congo – 17 126. Latvia – 17 127. Lithuania – 17 128. Trinidad & T - 16 129. N. Korea – 16 130. Eswatini - 16 131. Estonia - 16 132. China – 15 133. Curacao – 15 134. Lebanon - 15 135. Faroe Islands – 15 136. South Sudan - 14 137. Cyprus - 14 138. Chad – 14 139. Malta – 14 140. Vietnam - 13 141. Thailand - 13 142. Kuwait - 13 143. Eritrea – 13 144. Indonesia – 12 145. Palestine - 12 146. Malaysia – 11 147. Turkmenistan - 11 148. Kyrzgyzstan - 11 149. Andorra – 11 150. Suriname - 10 151. Nicaragua – 10 152. Somalia - 10 153. India - 10 154. Hong Kong - 9 155. Bermuda – 8 156. Leichenstein - 7 157. Guyana - 7 158. Cuba – 7 159. Phillipines – 7 160. Yemen - 6 161. Mauritius – 6 162. Sao Tome - 6 163. Djibouti – 6 164. Singapore - 6 165. Afghanistan – 6 166. Puerto Rico - 5 167. Grenada - 5 168. Dominican R – 5 169. Gibraltar – 5 170. Montserrat – 5 171. Seychelles – 4 172. Tahiti - 4 173. St. Kitts & N - 3 174. Solomon Islands - 3 175. Barbados - 3 176. Antigua & B – 3 177. San Marino - 2
I like the list. Not sure Colombia is 3rd but I will not complain. Heading into 2026 I think they can be 3rd though. Still lots of younger/inexperienced guys that can contribute to a good World Cup run that have not established themselves yet or played much.
Given that the Finalíssima will likely feature the top rated teams in the world, how will you treat it for your ranking @vancity eagle ? As a regular friendly, or do you give it a higher multiplier?
I believe this is the highest Colombia has ever been in my rankings. Higher than the 2014-2018 period, even though I believe that Colombia team was better than this one. Combination of things, Colombia has just got a lot of good results, and there are a lot of big wins against higher rated teams. Also as I said in another thread I believe many teams are worse off post World Cup. Colombia is one of the few exceptions.
This team has more potential than the 2014-2018 team. Although the individuals were better during that Pekerman run the tactics and team cohesion is better now. Plus the depth and endurance will be better once those aforementioned younger players get more experience.
I ranked Colombia 10th end of May. That was even before the pre Copa America friendlies started to roll on. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g9VCtXZ3hOePWaLo-UQe2CRbQk_qwYxDFhTpl50rsPE/edit?usp=sharing Taking Colombia's performances and results as a whole at this Copa and the trajectory they are on I see them currently as top 5-6 nation. I definately think Argentina, Spain, England and France are higher than Colombia. With Portugal it's really close, a tossup. Portugal made the quarters of the last World Cup and they played France toe to toe in the quarterfinals of this EURO. I'd take right now Colombia over Germany and the Netherlands. And the rest is for sure not as good as Colombia.
I totally agree with your sentiment. I think Colombia's ceiling for 2026 is a semi-final finish. Anoybody feel free to vote in my poll. If 🇨🇴 Colombia keep going this direction under Nestor Lorenzo they can do very well at the 2026 World CupIf talents like Jhon Durán and Yáser Asprilla make the next step + James maintains his level I could see 🇨🇴 Colombia go on a semi-final run in 2026That's IMO their ceiling— International Football Guru ⚽🇩🇪🗺️🌏 (@sk_football1907) July 15, 2024 How far do you think 🇨🇴 Colombia could go at the 🌐 2026 World Cup?They just finished runners-up of the Copa América, are unbeaten in WCQ sitting in 3rd place and their historical best has been a quarterfinal finish in 2014 in 🇧🇷 Brazil#CopaAmerica2024 #LosCafeteros— International Football Guru ⚽🇩🇪🗺️🌏 (@sk_football1907) July 15, 2024
The latest (18 July 2024) FIFA rankings are out. On the whole, they seem pretty reasonable to me, although among the top 20 each of Belgium, Italy, Mexico, and Iran seem 4-5 places above where I would put them. https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men 1. Argentina 2. France 3. Spain 4. England 5. Brazil 6. Belgium 7. Netherlands 8. Portugal 9. Colombia 10. Italy 11. Uruguay 12. Croatia 13. Germany 14. Morocco 15. Switzerland 16. USA 17. Mexico 18. Japan 19. Senegal 20. Iran 21. Denmark 22. Austria 23. S. Korea 24. Australia 25. Ukraine 26. Turkiye 27. Ecuador 28. Poland 29. Sweden 30. Wales 31. Hungary 32. Serbia 33. Russia 34. Qatar 35. Panama 36, Egypt 37. Venezuela 38. Cote d'Ivoire 39. Nigeria 40. Canada 41. Tunisia 42. Peru 43. Chile 44. Slovakia 45. Romania 46. Algeria 47. Czechia 48. Scotland 49. Costa Rica 50. Norway ...
I was looking where would Mexico be if they are 20 places behinde - and I see Russia. They are still ranked and are still that high? They are without a game for more than two years. Or FIFA do count their friendlies against puppet states although they suspended them from their competitions?
when comparing FIFA to my rankings here are the most overrated teams by FIFA. I'm just keeping this to the top 50 1. Qatar 32 places overrated 2. Mexico 21 places 3. Egypt 21 places 4. Costa Rica 20 places 5. Sweden 19 places 6. Wales 19 places 7. Romania 19 places 8. Russia 18 places 9. Italy 12 places 10. Iran 12 places Now the most underrated teams in FIFA's top 50 1. Norway 14 places underrated 2. Japan 12 places 3. Hungary 11 places 4. Venezuela 11 places 5. Tunisia 11 places 6. Ecuador 9 places 7. Austria 8 places 8. Ivory Coast 7 places 9. Scotland 5 places