Looking quickly over your rankings, what caught my eye was Egypt among the top 20! That looks very off to me. I recently saw the same Tunisia that would lose badly to S. Korea and Japan, beat Egypt (with Salah and co.) 3:1. Egypt didn't look like a top 20 team to me.
Tunisia didn't lose badly to Japan. 2-0 away to Japan is not a bad scoreline, especially considering Japan's devastating form recently. They lost badly to Korea, but I would say that match was an aberration more than something that would get repeated again. We can play the same game and say Korea lost to Ghana in a much more important and neutral territory match. Ghana has had more problems with the likes of Comoros and Madagascar than Korea. I dont necessarily think Egypt is top 20, but just because the lost to Tunisia, who lost to Korea isn't a great argument.
Some of these rankings are quite ridiculous. Korea is no way 29 places above Cameroon. Both teams finished with 4 points in Qatar. Both teams won their only match against an unmotivated super power. Surely these two teams are much closer than your biased opinion. You even have Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia above them. LOL. Saudi Arabia was completely outclassed by a half strength Mali side. Scoreline could have been 5 or 6 to 1. Cameroon is better than Mali. They are also better than Ghana who Korea lost to.
We can go in circles all day. My view (almost alone here in that assessment) was that Tunisia was a pretty solid team last cycle heading to the World Cup, but now (based on what I have seen) they have declined. And Egypt is not a top 20 team in performances I have seen or based on their overall results. They rank 47th per Elo, 33rd per FIFA, and somewhere around that in my eyes.
It really has to be asked how can FIFA be so off in rating Mexico so high ? A team that failed to qualify from the easiest group in Qatar. I've told people many times. If they just go to the first FIFA ranking POST reset. You will find that most teams haven't moved much, regardless of their form. The rankings are highly flawed. Mexico has been consistently ranked around the same place, as have most teams. It's very hard to move up or down. It's a pathetic ranking honestly.
I can cherry pick results as well as you can, like the Uzbeks beating Cameroon 2:0 last year. My rating of Cameroon right now is influenced by what I saw from them against Russia (1:0 loss), a side I don't rank that highly and which the Uzbeks showed better against (draw). In any case, I have all of them (Uzbek, Saudi, Cameroon, Mali) in the same cluster, meaning they are all around the same level IMO. S. Korea has been in an upward trajectory, btw, and right now rate higher than in the past. Just because Ghana beat them last year in WC22 (in a match where xG and stats favored the Koreans in a group S. Korea advanced while Ghana got its only points against the Koreans) doesn't change that. No more than UAE beating S. Korea means UAE is better than Tunisia much less Uruguay or Portugal!
So you are cherry picking friendlies over World Cup matches ? There is no way Korea is 30 places above Cameroon. Same Korea who recently couldn't beat Wales, and only beat Saudi Arabia 1-0. Sorry. You are either way overanking Korea or under ranking Cameroon. Those 2 teams are much closer than you want to admit.
I am looking at everything I have seen and in the context of overall results. I actually hope S. Korea will show that their sudden rise in form, starting with their narrow win over Saudi Arabia (Klinsmann's 1st with the Koreans) but then continuing with impressive wins over Vietnam (6:0), Tunisia (4:0), Singapore (5:0) and China (3:0), is an aberration. They are Iran's rivals and we will probably face them in the Asian Cup. But right now they look pretty good.
FWIW these are the already updated confederations after the November break In bracket => change rating to last month CONMEBOL 1. Argentina 88 (-1) 2. Uruguay 84.5 (+2) 3. Brazil 84 (-1) 4. Colombia 83 (+1) 5. Ecuador 81 (-0.5) 6. Venezuela 77.5 (-0.5) 7. Chile 77 (-0.5) 8. Paraguay 77 (+0.5) 9. Peru 74 (-2) 10. Bolivia 69.5 UEFA 1. France 89.5 (-0.5) 2. England 88 (-1) 3. Spain 87 4. Portugal 87 5. Italy 84.5 (+1) 6. Netherlands 84 (+1) 7. Belgium 84 8. Croatia 83.5 9. Austria 82 10. Denmark 81.5 11. Hungary 81.5 12. Germany 81 (-2.5) 13. Ukraine 80.5 (+0.5) 14. Türkiye 80.5 (+1) 15. Scotland 80 16. Switzerland 79.5 (-0.5) 17. Norway 79 18. Greece 78 (+1) 19. Serbia 77.5 (-1.5) 20. Czechia 77.5 21. Slovenia 77.5. (-1) 22. Poland 77 (+1) 23. Wales 77 (-0.5) 24. Albania 77 (-1) 25. Sweden 76.5 (-2) 26. Slovakia 76.5 (+0.5) 27. North Macedonia 76 (+1) 28. Romania 75.5 (+1.5) 29. Finland 75.5 (+1.5) 30. Russia 75 31. Georgia 75 (+1.5) 32. Ireland 73.5 (-1) 33. Armenia 73.5 (+1.5) 34. Kazakhstan 73 (+1) 35. Kosovo 73 (+1) 36. Montenegro 72 (+1) 37. Israel 70.5 (-2.5) 38. Luxembourg 70 (+0.5) 39. Iceland 69.5 (+1) 40. Northern Ireland 69 (+1) 41. Azerbaijan 69 (+1.5) 42. Moldova 67 (+1) 43. Bulgaria 66.5 (+3) 44. Belarus 66.5 (+0.5) 45. Bosnia 66 (-2) 46. Cyprus 65 47. Latvia 64.5 48. Estonia 63 (+0.5) 49. Malta 63 (+1) 50. Lithuania 62.5 51. Faroe Islands 61.5 (+0.5) Updates for AFC, CAF and CONCACAF are pending.
My ranking rates quality, performances, chemistry and results. It's not a strictly results based ranking. In some way it shows similarity with a power ranking. However I don't use that term for my ranking. I see my ranking as 80% of a world ranking. Maybe to 20% it has the features of a power ranking. Egypt are ranked very highly for the following reasons I. They misses out on the World Cup to Senegal on penalties. That's the closest of margins you could miss out. Senegal I consider a borderline world class team. Last month they were ranked in 9th by me. My next update will see them in 14th. My point is that Egypt were very close to eliminate a top 15 nation and a nation that made the knockout stage with 6 points from the World Cup. II. Egypt finished runners-up of at the last AFCON and beat some heavyweights in the process. They beat Ivory Coast on pens, beat Morocco after extratime, beat hosts Cameroon on penalties before they came short on penalties against again Senegal in the final II. Egypt have been experiencing a radical shift in playing style from a cautious approach and pragmatic style and a to a much more proactive high press style that sees them taking the game to the opposition. Egypt show some very good runs in attack and play positive and entertaining football. The mastermind behind all this has been the new coach Rui Vitoria. Under him Egypt beat Belgium 2-0 in a warm-up friendly on the eve of the World Cup. It was a very impressive performance. Hailed by Egyptians as the best football they saw their team play in a very long time. Egypt qualified for AFCON in style. Many experts and pundits see Egypt as favourites or at least contenders to win AFCON 2023. I have circled Egypt among the four favourites alongside Senegal, Morocco and hosts Ivory Coast. So the results they achieved against high quality opposition + their fresh new proactive style of play have brought them all the way up to 21st place. The 3-1 loss to Tunisia is deceiving. Tunisia were super clinical on that day and scored from all their shots. Egypt while they weren't at their best on that day looked better than Tunisia on the balance of play. But they didn't capitalise on their chances.
Kam I saw Egypt tie against Algeria last window, and they were down to 10 men for almost the entire match. I thought they would surely lose but they held on and even had chances to win. I haven't really been thinking of them as a potential winner in the upcoming afcon, but they are always one of those consistent teams that aren't as flashy as others.
I obviously am not going to insist how teams that I only follow haphazardly should be rated. I have my own impressions which I have shared here. I saw Egypt at home against both Tunisia and Algeria, although as a neutral I wasn't glued to either game. I just didn't come away with the impression they were better than in the recent past under Queiroz (I watched almost all of their matches under him). (I also saw their post CQ/pre-World Cup win over Belgium, but frankly didn't come away thinking Egypt are world beaters as much as thinking Belgium w/o Lukako may have serious problems advancing from its group). Anyway, Egypt are certainly solid, have Salah and more, and are a good enough side. But I don't think they are top 20.
Honestly right now it would seem that there's a sort of consensus (reflected in all of your rankings and FIFA's*) about who the top 18-20 teams are but, besides those, I feel like any team between 20 and 50 could beat each other any given day. Take Egypt as an example, you could place them anywhere between 21 and 45 and it would look justified to me... *with Mexico as the outlier.
Teams I would rank 20-40 are almost indistinguishable in overall strength. Egypt falls somewhere between 20-40. The 40-60 category would be slightly weaker but, of course, they too could pull results against the former. The overall record and the consistency in results is, however, what would ultimately distinguish between teams both in the same cluster and teams from different clusters.
I can announce now which nations will conclude 2023 in my top 20 (ordered by confederation) UEFA - 11 Teams France 89.5 England 88 Spain 87 Portugal 87 Italy 84.5 Netherlands 84 Belgium 84 Croatia 83.5 Austria 82 Denmark 81.5 Hungary 81.5 CONMEBOL - 4 Teams Argentina 88 Uruguay 84.5 Brazil 84 Colombia 83 CAF - 3 Teams Morocco 83.5 Senegal 83.5 Egypt 81.5 AFC - 2 Teams Japan 84.5 South Korea 81.5 Changes to last month Out Germany USA Ecuador In South Korea Egypt Hungary
When I compare your top 20 with my top 20 there are 3 differences. I see Germany, Ecuador and USA in your top 20. My top 20 has Austria, Hungary and Egypt.
My top 20 shows some differences with the FIFA Rankings FIFA has USA, Mexico, Germany and Switzerland in it. My ranking has South Korea, Austria, Hungary and Egypt in it.
If I assume that the first two clusters + the four highest listed teams in cluster three make up your top 20 there are 3 differences to my top 20 You have USA, Germany and Switzerland in your top 20. I have Denmark, Austria and Egypt in it. To me it's head-scratching why Egypt are only 32nd aka at the top of cluster four. I think Egypt will surprise you at AFCON.
Germany's name aside, the differences between the others isn't substantial enough, nor my feelings or views about any of them so strong, to merit a big debate. Among your top 20, Egypt was the only one that surprised me but all I have to go by about them recently are impressions from a couple friendlies I really wasn't all that focused on.
Just an update on Colombia and my statistical justification of their ranking in my eye test rankings: Finished the year undefeated. I believe this is the first time this has happened for Colombia in the modern era of Marathon Qualifiers. Lorenzo this Cycle is on an unbeaten streak of sixteen matches. Overall Colombia as a team has not lost in nineteen consecutive matches. The last loss was to Argentina... ...the eventual World Champions that cycle. I dare say Colombia is the hottest team on the planet. And the scary thing is they can play better. At least have the potential to play better and bring in new, younger players at key positions.
Well said, though an argument could be made for Uruguay being just as hot. 7 wins (including 2-0 over both Bra and Arg), 2 draws, and 1 loss (at Ecuador) this year. They are also at +8 goal differential in the qualifiers while Colombia is at +3. Uru is also 1 point ahead of Colombia. This is not a knock on Colombia, both are playing great. Argentina, though leading the qualifiers, just looks to be going through the motions, doing just enough to get the results while not playing particularly well (for their standards) I wonder if they will ramp it up in Copa America. I guess the moral of the story is hire coaches from Argentina.
Uruguay is very hot and is better at scoring/ attacking. They also have a good crop of youngsters. I am not going to really argue with people who think they are better as I said earlier in the thread. From my point of view though Colombia just seems to be on the precipice of a significant moment that can be really, really special (Like potentially better than 2014 when they went to the Quarters of the World Cup type of special.) It has that vibe to it for me at least, and the coach was a part of that journey which really does tie it together sentimentally. Logically, Colombia has a good mixture of old vets and young players contributing while Uruguay's best leaders and captains from the last few cycles are being phased out, discarded or retired. That may be the difference. But who knows? The Copa America could be a pretty good barometer of how each team is progressing. And the funny thing is Colombia and Uruguay can face each other and prove it on the field.
I don't know how Colombia will be doing next year but the comparison with the 2014 team is crazy. The gap in individual quality is big (in favor of that team). No one from the current team except Diaz would start in the old one. Obviously James and Cuadrado were better players back then. Then Ospina, Yepes, the wing backs, the crazy striker options...