This thread will serve as the place where I'll share going forward my women's international teams ranking For now it's a top 50 ranking. I don't rule out that it may be a top 70 ranking someday The next update will come mid/end of April Here is it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-O_MJQcN3WShMH5ULUnl6LliiydraaQGg1zBkTD4OfQ/edit?usp=sharing
Is it based on available data through any kind of calculations (as the numbers of the rankings would suggest) and how? Or is it mostly just "impressionistic"?
It is data based and 'impressionistic' at the same time I divided the 50 teams roughly into tiers from the get-go based on my knowledge and the results they obtained in the last 3 years. I compared the results over the course of three years and came up with a rating based on the totality of the results. I rewatched highlights of the women's World Cup, checked match stats, squads and I watched also very much extended highlights if availabe of the latest Nations League (primarily League A). I catched also several games of the Gold Cup. I have a file for every single of these 50 teams where I can see the results since April 2021 against fellow top 50 ranked teams by me. I don't consider much results against minnows or very lowly ranked sides. I did add to my database the losses against by me unranked sides. The more you have of these results the more it impacted your ranking to the worse obviously. Data wise I had of all teams these features: - All results against fellow top 50 ranked sides by me => calculating somewhat of a point ratio per game while also considering the strength of the opponents - 3 results (draw or win) within the 3 year period against by me highest rated sides - 3 wins against be me highest rated sides -3 best medium results (basically the same as the very first point but wins of the first catgeory not weighed again but the next best victory) -3 worst losses (losses against the lowest ranked sides in the 3 year period) - If available losses against by me unranked (outside top 50) sides - Blowouts suffered (loss by at least 4 goals) The World Cup as the holy grail served as sort of a tie-breaker when two teams were very close to each other according to my stats and my estimation. Based on the estimated ratings for all teams which later become more and more like the actual ratings I was able to calculate an index/factor for each of these categories. Then I calculated the average rating and adjusted it based on the footage (full games and highlights) I checked out. My rankings are always partially stat / data based but also to a very noticable extent based on eye test.
Here some data of my database for Italy for example 13-7-12 ~ 1.44 Pts / game 21/32 games vs Top 20 nations ~ 65.6% Got results vs ESP 1 Win (C-A) (2023) SWE 3 Draw (C-A) (2023) NED 9 Win (F-H) (2021) Best wins vs ~ 85 ESP 1 Win (C-A) (2023)__________92 NED 9 Win (F-H) (2021)_________83.5 DEN 12 Win (F-N) (2022)________79.5 Best medium results ~ 81.33 SWE 3 Draw (C-A) (2023)_______88.5 NOR 15 Win (F-N) (2022)_______78.5 COL 17 Win (F-H) (2023)________77 Worst losses ~ 75.67 RSA 24 Loss (C-N) (2023)_________74 SUI 20 Loss (C-H) (2021)_________76 AUT 23 Loss (F-H) (2022)________77 Blowouts suffered - 3 N FRA 1-5 (2022) (C) N SWE 0-5 (2023) (C) H ENG 1-5 (2024) Abbrevations C => Competitive game F => Friendly H => Home A => Away N => Neutral I ended up with a 79 rating for Italy based on what you can see here. It would have been 80 if Italy had not had a setback in the last window. That 5-1 loss to England showcased against some major weaknesses such as defending set pieces etc....
Highly data based approach I know but that was needed in order to set up the ranking and mask flaws that would come from the fact that I didn't follow women's football permanently very closely in the last 3 years. From now on I don't need such calculations. I have laid the foundation by my ranking. From now on the idea is to update the ratings based on future results and performances. Results are selfexplanatory. Performances will be rated based on the footage I check out. I will make sure to watch at least highlights of these 50 teams if possible in some cases full games if I find them online and I have the time. Basically same method as for my men's ranking.
Nice. I am interested in how you do your ratings. Given you assign numbers for home field advantage and ties, I am guessing your system is statistics-based.
Today the international break for women's gets underway Due to a dense schedule I wasn't able to update my Top 50 women's ranking. The next update will come just before the Summer Olympic Football Tournament (25 July to start)