We pick 11 players and 4 subs to play the best PAC12 all star team. Who you got? I don't have a strong feeling at GKer. Following are the ones I have a strong feeling about. Backline of Fox, Bell, Berkely and Madrill. Either Madrill or Bell would move out wide. Howell at the 6. Robbins at the 7 or 10. Pinto at the ? Spaanstra 11 Who else you got? Jarrett? Godrey? West? Zhao? Nighswonger? Jones????
@Respect the Game 3-5-2 to start... GK Dickey CB Bell - Berkeley - Madril RWB Spaanstra LWB Fox CDM Howell Jones CAM Ekic FWD Cox Jarrett Subs - Zhao, GK, Pinto, M Morris LF and RF set piece taker Toughness Leadership Wingbacks who can defense a bit, but dont have to Good enough in the MF areas to outpass a press Pace and strength at FWD to get behind or come short. Tactical flexibility off the bench. Need a back up GK. That team would be very hard to beat in a best of 3
Good team. Hard to argue, because it's all "eye of the beholder", iow opinions. GKers are the hardest. The GKers for FSU and UNC did not face many tests. How well would a GKer from other teams do? I gotta' have Robbins in there. She play makes, scores, defends and is tactically sound and clever. She would push Ekic to sub status IMO.
@Tom81 Every position is hard unless you have seen a lot of the payers concerned. Full disclosure, I have seem most of these players for a very long time. Long before College. Ive seen Madril the least. I picked a 2 GK for squad reasons. Cant risk a GK getting injured. For me, Dickey is well ahead of the other ACC GKs. I tried to pick a team. Robbins is a fine player, but I need a creator in that role for my choice of formation. Pinto is more versatile and could easily start over Jones or Ekic. Im not picking my favorite GK, 4D, 4M and 2F. I would start Zhao over Ekic if i knew she could 75 minutes. I left out several players i like for squad reasons. I also tried to out as many players in a position to play to their strengths as I could. College soccer rules really favor CAM type players. I want players who excel at something. PS without a formation, its hard.
007 " picked a 2 GK for squad reasons. Cant risk a GK getting injured. For me, Dickey is well ahead of the other ACC GKs." Not saying you're wrong, but why do you think Dickey is well ahead of the others? Roque gave up 6 goals, 2 of which were PKs. Heck one of the other GKers who faced a lot more pressure might deserve the position. Dickey did not look great against us. We should have had AT LEAST one more goal. Can't wait to see if the spring season and NCAAT actually happen. I like FSU's chances, but a lot can happen between now and then.
"Roque gave up 6 goals, 2 of which were PKs. Heck one of the other GKers who faced a lot more pressure might deserve the position. Dickey did not look great against us. We should have had AT LEAST one more goal." There are statistics that try and normalize almost all of these questions - xG vs Actual and others. You dont need to only rely on perception alone. Players have good and bad games. The more data you have, the better. We all have bias, its what makes us fans. FSU 3 - 2 UNC:Catching up a bit - here is the ACC title match. FSU not really creating anything after they went up 3 and let UNC get back in it with 2 goal. UNC aided in the simulation by the penalty pic.twitter.com/Kzmi0PsWkP— Women's Soccer Visualizations (@WSOCViz) November 18, 2020 Stats suggest a slightly different picture
Let's see. They got a PK, legit, but still not a run of play goal. The last 1 minute goal was a clear offsides not called. The 3-2 score was as deceiving as the 4-0 score over Duke. Additionally their GKer came out twice and either got a handball, or came very close each time. Not called. Not called. Not called. I'll be honest, I don't get all those stats. What picture is it painting? Summarize it please.
Lot of information there. Search xG soccer, I'm sure you will get articles that explain it better than I can on a forum. The one I found most interesting was that if you simulate every shot taken 1000x, the probabilities were UNC win 77pct Draw 16pct FSU win 7pct Same analyst on the Duke game FSU 4 - 0 Duke:FSU creating a ton vs Duke, with Duke getting some of their own as well. But FSU was the best throughout the match and pulled away as 4 goal winners pic.twitter.com/VpZUgYh05z— Women's Soccer Visualizations (@WSOCViz) November 15, 2020 As you can see, the advanced metrics from that game totally contradict your opinion. Im not saying one is right or wrong. Im pointing out that different people look at games in very different ways.
I'm not a stats guy. But if the conclusion of those stats are that UNC had a 77% chance of winning and FSU only a 7% chance, then I can only conclude that it's a faulty system. FSU dominated the first half and had best chance not scored with a little over a minute to go in the half. We scored early in the 2nd half (run of play) and then we got a little conservative, especially the last 20 minutes. I can only assume that their flurry of activity trying to get the 2nd goal must have generated stats the above system likes. There were very few really close calls that UNC had other than the late offsides score. Now I don't like playing defensive 'hold the lead' soccer. That said, me telling Mark he should have done differently is like my 8 year old grand daughter telling Einstein he needs to rework his numbers. If it makes you happy to tell me that UNC should have won that game, then God Bless You! Stats aside, I'm guessing the large large majority of people who saw it either in person, or on TV would disagree. I like Mark Twain's take. "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."; "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments.
"If it makes you happy to tell me that UNC should have won that game, then God Bless You!" Not what i said at all. I showed you analysis that provided a different PoV. I even said " Im not saying one is right or wrong. Im pointing out that different people look at games in very different ways." After the game I wrote that I was happy to see the side who tried to play the most progressive soccer won. I also said you have to watch the games. I know that when I watch a team I root for play, my bias can come into play. I recall a thread praising FSU for having so many players near the top of InStat ratings. InStat is using a statistical model to do that. Its not based on watching the games at all. Does that mean we only use the stats that confirm our existing views? I enjoy reading @cpthomas posts because many of them are statistical. They provide a great balance to the majority of posts here that are more personal opinions.
As a complete outsider, I watched most of the Duke game. My take on the game was that it almost was like women playing girls, FSU was that much better. (And, I do not intend that as a critique of Duke.) I did not watch the FSU v UNC game, notwithstanding that I thought it would give a good read on how good UNC is. As an aside, I also watched the UNC v Virginia game. My take on that was that the UNC first team was significantly better than Virginia, but Virginia was significantly better than the UNC second team.
UNC 2 - 0 UVA:Catching up on ACC as the final is on ESPNU now - open play was fairly tight with UNC grabbing the edge in simulation through the penalty pic.twitter.com/1ENSu2lZJ5— Women's Soccer Visualizations (@WSOCViz) November 15, 2020
cpt. Time permitting take a look at the FSU North Carolina game. I would like your take on that. The stat suggesting North Carolina had a 77% chance of winning were stunning to me. I think they will be stunning to you as well.
I feel the ACC got it wrong for goalkeeper selections for the All Conference teams. Dickey from UNC, Roque from FSU, and Kouzelos from Louisville are all solid. But the best goalkeepers based on their individual performances were Lysianne Proulx from Syracuse and Hensley Hancuff from Clemson. Hancuff is an imposing 6'3" figure in net and can back that up with game changing saves. Proulx is a Canadian national team goalkeeper that was very good on shot stopping, breakaways, crosses, and distribution. Proulx won't get considered because of how bad Syracuse is but she made some amazing saves for a team that couldn't hold the ball or defend in front of her. If I had to draft for a team I would take those 2 goalkeepers over Roque, Dickey, or Kouzelos in a heartbeat.
Hensley Hancuff not making an All-ACC Team when there are THREE of them is absolutely criminal.— Chris Henderson (@chris_awk) November 13, 2020 Hensley Hancuff of Clemson is sitting on 2 goals allowed on 9.14 xG faced this season (factoring out penalties).Putting up a pretty strong case as the nation's best keeper for the Fall college WoSo season.— Chris Henderson (@chris_awk) October 19, 2020 I know several people that agree with you on Hancuff. I will try and look at Proulx metrics.
That logic can be applied all over the field, which is why some people use statistical metrics to assist in making objective judgements on players who are in differing situations. Apologies if I am stating the obvious, but the analyst above is saying that basis stats Hancuff has faced shots that should add up to 9g and conceded only 2. Usage (being tested, facing more shots) is relevant in that it increases sample size. A keeper who faced double the xG and conceded 4g would be equivalent. There is a lot more to being a GK than stopping shots and xG does not directly measure, so you can avoid actually watching the games.