According to SportsClubStats the probability of the Quakes making the playoffs has dropped to 23.7%: "One in four, that's not so bad" you say... But that's based on probabilities, here is the reality, or more accurately the history. According to the March 18 edition of ExtraTime Radio: Andrew Weibe: "[SKC 2023] was the way outlier. Generally, the data shows where you start in the first month or the first two months is probably where you're going to finish." Matt Doyle: "In the history of MLS, only three teams have ever started the season with zero points through four games and gone on to make the playoffs. Two of them were in 2020 in the eastern conference, the Covid year, when 10 of the 14 teams in the east made the playoffs. That was Inter Miami and NYCFC, and Inter Miami made the play-in, not the playoffs." ... [Something about the impact of Covid on the 2021 season] ... Doyle: "So during a real season in MLS history, a non-Covid impacted season in MLS history, zero teams have started off with zero points through four games and made the playoffs. The Revs are already facing a must-win, and we're not even a month into the season." Weibe: "San Jose is in the same boat, 0-0-4..." Doyle: "Did anybody expect the Quakes to make the playoffs though?" Weibe: "No, not really, just saying. They're in that position." Doyle: "It unfortunately says a lot about the Quakes that we're not concerned about them, because this is just relatively speaking what we thought they would be." Ouch... that is not great! Wish we could say good job and good effort in 2024, but this has been a complete failure all around from Fisher's ownership to GM Leitch to coach Luchi to pretty much every player. Better luck to the Quakes in 2025, which is only one year from 2026 when Chris Leitch expects us to win MLS Cup while he's signing a soon to be 34 year old Amahl Pellegrino who has done nothing and trying to sign a 35 year old Carlos Vela who is pretty much retired as a DP for $3 million.
#neversaydie? Season's over after 4 games . I trust the probabilities more than I trust the history. Besides, we don't even know what the denominator is. How many teams have started 0-4? Three have made it, how many have not made it? Also usually a team that starts the season 0-4 is plainly bad. The Quakes have had 3 competitive games, and lost the first one in the final seconds of that game. Right now the Quakes are 4 points away from the playoff line and 6 points out of a tie for 3rd in the west. Obviously not good, but hardly insurmountable. If it was like 6 games away from the end of the season, we'd be thinking we have a shot, being 4 points out. So what's different? It would have to be the idea that a 0-4 start is indicative of a terrible team. Maybe, maybe not. I don't think we're terrible, and we have a DP slot in our pocket (maybe we'll use it some day). We'll find out if we're terrible or not over the course of the season.
Last year Kansas City after 10 games had zero wins, three points, and three goals scored, and then reached the conference semifinals. That's probably the all-time bad start for a playoff team. So you're saying there's a chance.....
But what about the -6 GD Jazzy!!?? Well, the best GD you can have as an 0-4 team is -4, so I guess as an 0-4 team we are not that bad . We are just 2 goals away from a perfect GD for an 0-4 team!
If the Quakes were a decent team they could climb out of this hole. But they’re not. So they won’t. Hope they prove me wrong.
SKC has a *. They were missing almost their whole starting unit until game 15. Were missing Tsakiris and Akapo.
done and dusted. well done everyone. time to find other things to focus on that don’t include politics, news in general (best in small doses), and Quakes soccer…all of which are terribly depressing. hmmm…
https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings-which-teams-can-catch-the-columbus-crew 29 San Jose Earthquakes The Wooden Spoon is calling. Through four games, the Quakes have no points and a negative-6 goal differential. They’re the only team with less than three points that isn’t in CCC or… uh… Seattle.
Politics are only a problem when people get their feelings hurt and when their 'opinion's aren't facts.
against the Predators, right? I watched a little but who can sit through a whole sharks game these days? add that to the also depressing list.
they’re playing for some kind of first round draft pick consolation prize so you’re looking at it all wrong. They’re actually doing great.
Most of this thread, including most obviously the title, is about giving up hope on the team after 4 games.
I have not given up "hope". As I said I hope I'm wrong in realistically assessing that the season is effectively over. I'm also planning to attend all the home games, and hoping to attend the St. Louis road game and possibly others. And I intend to renew my season tickets for next season. As I posted previously, when the team when was only 0-2 (instead of now 0-4), I told my rep I will still be here when they're 0-34. Which was and is my expectation for their record -- until they prove me wrong.
You would be one of the very last to give up on supporting the team. No doubt about that. I could get into the semantics of some other things you wrote but I don't think it's worth it.
Exactly. Everyone here is a Quakes fan. I'm sure we are all hoping the team goes undefeated over the remaining 30 games. But in any case hoping for that or not hoping for it has no impact on the likelihood of it happening, which is close to nil. The probability of making the playoffs at all is "this has only happened three times in MLS history and never before in a non-Covid-impacted season, and two of those three were with 10/14 teams making the playoffs and one of those was only the play-in game." See above.
This is not an expression of "hope". It's an expression of doom. "After 4 games the 2024 San Jose Earthquakes season is already over" That's not a probability, that's a statistical study. It all comes down to whether or not you believe the Quakes are a bad team and that they won't get better. I think they're an OK team and have the prospect of getting better, if we can ever sign a reasonably good DP attacker.