On paper Iran should have been destined to make it out of the group this time after they came close to do so in 2018. Qatar is one of the countries in the region that holds better ties to Iran. By en large Iran is sending the same crop of players as in Russia. The team has experience on their side and a striker partnership in Azmoun and Taremi that is well respected not only within Asia but also beyond. But it seems missmanagement, internal issues and injuries are holding them back. I called it after they were handedly beaten by South Korea on the penultimate matchday in WCQ that they won't get anywhere with their current coach. Iran's main achilles' heel is imo their defence and the way they defend as a team. Very poor. They don't come even remotely close to the solid defensive unit they were in 2018. Injuries have plagued them too. Morteza Pouraliganji, one of their major centerbacks hasn't seen the pitch for like almost over a year. As a result he stops still at 44 caps. Iran's personel in defence has also changed quite a lot compared to Russia. As a consequence they don't have a well-rehearsed defence. If you look closer at their squad not a single defender has hit 50 caps so far. Successfull teams have very often a spine that starts from the back with a couple of players with over 50 caps. In defence it's an asset if you have plenty of experience and players that played with each other for many years. Iran doesn't have that. They aren't well coached either. I predict that their forwards won't get many goalscoring opportunities either because they don't know how to feed them against World Cup level type of opposition. Iran lost also a friendly to an experimenting Algerian side. It's imo never a good look if a side that is qualified loses to a side that isn't qualified. In my mind there's little doubt that Iran would finish bottom of their group if the World Cup was to start now.
What you say is reasonable, correct in some respects, but also relies on -- at best -- questionable examples and criteria. You are also very wrong about somethings. Because you have taken the time to watch Iran play, I wanted to help you avoid some of your mistaken conclusions. Otherwise, I really couldn't care less, especially since I don't dispute your conclusion about how Iran would do if the World Cup started today. When it comes to Iran's defense, a defense is truly like a chain only as strong as its weakest link. Even one weak link or mismatch, and the whole team (especially defenders and midfielders) start trying to compensate, miss other assignments, become nervous and start looking like a mess. Iran has had glaring weak links recently, mostly forced by injuries and suspensions of our best center-backs. But also because a goalie I used to trust despite few caps for Iran, namely Amir Abedzadeh, has been making horrendous gaffes almost single-handedly changing the complexion of our games. Otherwise, while caps are indicative of experience and can be telling when it comes to quality, remember in WC-18 we started with Majid Hosseini against Spain and Portugal -- a hitherto uncapped 20 year old then getting his first ever start against Spain. And was completely comfortable with him even before his first cap. I had seen him regularly at the club level and knew he was going to be fine. But at the same time I was literally horrified by Queiroz's sudden first choice center-back for WC18, Rouzbeh Cheshmi, who I had also seen regularly at the club level and knew wasn't good. Queiroz had crossed out before the World Cup, for no real reason other than personal spite against the coach of the club Seyed Jalal Hosseini captained, namely Branco Ivancovic's Persepolis, our then best and by far most experienced center-back. And replaced him with Rouzbeh Cheshmi! Iran was saved from embarrassment when Rouzbeh Cheshmi was injured in practice between the Morocco and Spain matches. Anyway, a side that uses a 4-back formation has a pair of center-backs. In AC19, that pair for Iran were: 1- Morteza Pouraliganji (CB) (just signed with Persepolis) : current Age: 30 Caps: 43 2- Hossein Kananni (CB) (Al Ahli, Qatar): Current Age: 28 Caps: 31 These would be our best center-backs who I rate highly, neither available during the June window. In WCQs, in Pouraliganji's absence due to injury, our starting CBs were: 1- Hossein Kananni (CB) (Al Ahli, Qatar): Current Age: 28 Caps: 31 2- Shoja Khalilzadeh (CB) (recently moved from Al Rayyan in Qatar to Kanaani's club, Al Ahli) Age: 33 Caps: 23 Neither of them were available in the June window either. (Khalilzadeh, although an excellent defender typically, is liable to commit a 'brain-fart' now and then. Majid Hosseini (CB) (Kayserispor, Turkey) now Age: 25 Caps: 16, is more reliable and better in some ways and not as good in others. But he needs to be paired with another center-back who is at an acceptable level and Iran's backline can't have clear weak links like in the games you want to rely on to make your judgments). Before you make any conclusions about our defense, you need to do so when we don't have clear weak links. Have patience: all these missing players should be available soon.
Saudi Arabia was the best Asian side in the 90s. After 2006/7 they declined a bit but they have now come back strongly and are more or less a top 4 Asian side again.
Saudi Arabia was the best Asian team for a while in the 90s. They were especially the best in the 1993-94 period. That was also one of the very few times they beat Iran (4:3 in WCQ94) looking anything like the better side. There results between 1996-2002 were largely undeserved and can be misleading for someone who didn't follow them carefully. Which is why I rooted for them in WC94 but rooted passionately against them in WC-98 and WC-02. When Germany beat them 8:0, it almost made up for the disappointment of Iran failing to qualify.
My own impression from my reading about AFC football is that the Asian Games tournament was actually taken more seriously by many nations than the Asian Cup up until relatively recently. Eventually the AFC's flagship Asian Cup won that debate, so people retrospectively treat the earlier Asian Cups as the undisputed premier Asian tourneys of their day, but as you allude to that is not at all clear when you dig deeper into the history of the Asian game. For example there was the Afro-Asian Cup of Nations, held irregularly between 1978 and 2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Asian_Cup_of_Nations#Finals Both Asian Cup winners and Asian Games winners appear to have been invited to various editions of this cup.
The Asian Cup was the more prestigious of the two even before the Asian Games took an age-restricted Olympics format from 2002, but the Asian Games used to also count and be regarded as an Asian championship as well. Which is why, depending on which year the Afro-Asian championship, or subsequently the short-lived AFC-OFC championship were being held, the most recent Asian champion (either Asian Cup winner or Asian Games winner) would represent the AFC. But, regardless, titles aren't always a good indicator of who was best. For instance, between 1988-1996, Iran had really become a 2nd tier Asian team, yet we beat S.Korea against the run of play in the semifinal to then lift the 1990 Asian Games gold. Conversely, some of the Iranian teams that failed to win the Asian Cup deserved it more than the eventual champions. There is no perfect barometer to judge quality, but for me, overall results are usually more reliable than a single tournament game, more so when Iran (for instance) has often stumbled at the Asian Cup merely losing on the penalty lottery (e.g., 1984, 1996, 2004, 2007, 2015).
True. I hope they can play a good football this world cup. The first match against Argentina will determine how the next 2 games will be. I just wished Argentina game would have been the last game and not the first.
I have never been a huge fan of the "winning is the only thing that matters" attitude in football and life in general, but at the same time at some point if you keep failing when it matters, that does need to be taken into account too in my opinion. You can get unlucky once, twice, even thrice. If you are "unlucky" over several decades and tournaments, there must be a deeper problem. My view on football is that it is best to use the law of averages. The best teams will not win every game, but over a large sample of games probability dictates that they will win most of them. If you aren't doing that, you don't deserve to be considered elite. With all due respect to your perspective which I have always greatly appreciated and found quite insightful, Iran's overall results to me indicate that they are a consistent top 4 side in Asia, sometimes slightly higher and rarely slightly lower. They are a respectable but by international standards ordinary side in intercontinental play and a perennial contender at Asian level. However, I see nothing in the body of evidence that suggests that Iran should be placed in a different class altogether from the likes of, say, Japan or South Korea, over the past three decades.
Thanks. Your evaluation of Iran isn't different than mine. I don't rate Iran a tier above either S.Korea or Japan. Nor would Iran so rate based on its overall results. In fact, based on overall results since WC98 as reflected in ELO average ratings in that period, the best team in the AFC has been 1- Japan (26th ELO average). Iran (32) and S.Korea (33) are neck-and-neck. Saudi Arabia's average in this period is (54). On the "law of averages", that only applies with large samples such as overall match results. Take a coin and flip it 2-3 times, and you might get 2-3 tails. Otherwise, based on law of averages, a side should win close to 50% of penalty shoot outs. Iran has never won a penalty shoot-out to advance further in the Asian Cup but has been eliminated by penalties 5 times at the Asian Cup (1984, 1996, 2004, 2007, 2015). In fact, the only penalty shoot out it has won at the Asian Cup (1/6) was a 3rd place consolation match in 1984. That isn't the "law of averages" at work. But there is probably a reason behind it, I call it "nerves", especially since 3 of those pk losses came in games with hugely controversial refereeing reducing Iran to 10 players on bogus red cards (2015, 2004) or disallowing a goal for offside (1996) before there was VAR of even good camera coverage to settle the issue.
Iran has sacked their coach Dragan Skocic. Long due move imo. It was the only way to keep any glimpses of hope to reach the Round of 16 in Qatar.
Any thoughts on who will take over? Burt is probably available. He is at least probably familiar with your players having coached UAE most recently. Or maybe there is a good local coach who can take over.
Van Maarvijk has had also a spell with Saudi Arabia. Other names that come to my mind are obviously Carlos Queiroz and Laurent Blanc. Both are without a team at the moment.
I just mentioned him because after Saudi Arabia sacked him after qualifying for 2018 we hired him for that world cup after our coach quit. I thought as he coached against us in the qualifiers back then he would at least know the players, and he would be in the same position with Iran now.
@almango @Kamtedrejt Reports about Skocic being sacked are a bit premature, although the ground is being set for his dismissal in the coming days. The only real justification for dismissing Skocic isn't the speculative and baseless arguments made against his record and tactics, but the fact that he isn't savvy enough or confrontational enough to stand up the enormous pressures created to see him ousted, leading to a situation where his authority within Iran's national team was already severely undermined. We had a situation where a large number of players were known to oppose him, including our best player, Mehdi Taremi and our captains (Haj Safi, Jahanbakhsh, and Ansarifard). On the other side, there were more than half a dozen players who were staunchly opposed to efforts to dismiss or undermine Skocic, including Sardar Azmoun, Sadegh Moharmai, and Vahid Amiri. Iran's 2 goalkeepers were also in opposing camps: Alireza Beiranvand in the pro Skocic camp and Amir Abedzadeh in the anti-Skocic group, although the latter most likely due to the fact that it had become clear that Abedzadeh had lost the confidence of Skocic after his mistakes against S. Korea in Seoul and against Algeria. As for his replacement, the only foreign coach with a chance would be Carlos Queiroz. Given that the anti-Querioz faction in Iran is almost as determined as the pro Queiroz faction, I doubt Carlos Queiroz will be appointed as the national team coach. I would be absolutely against it myself. That leaves us with a choice between 3-4 domestic Iranian coaches with different strengths and weaknesses. One of the leading candidates, who in principle should have a great future ahead of him, is former Iran captain Javad Nekounam. Nekounam is perhaps a bit too young, ut he has done well with the clubs he has guided in Iran and has long experience against top opposition as a player with both Iran's NT (playing in 2 World Cups) as well as playing for 8 years in La Liga against clubs such as Real Madrid and Barcelona. More experienced now, but more divisive and less successful as coach, would be Iran's legendary center forward, Ali Daei. He is the Iranian version of Carlos Queiroz when it comes to his character with all that entails. Other possibilities include Persepolis, coach, Yahya Golmohammadi who played for Iran in Wc06 as a defender (and scored our goal against Mexico). Until this season, Golmohammadi had an excellent record as a coach both with Persepolis (several domestic titles) and other clubs, including in the AFC CL. But this season, his club failed to win the domestic title for the first time in the past 5 years and while Persepolis finished runner up, its record and performances fell well short of expectations. Finally, there is Amir Ghalenoi, who has the best overall record among coaches in Iran's domestic league but has almost as many as strong a group of detractors as Skocic. There is no chance IMO for any of the other coaches being discussed here.
I had said this a bunch of times, CQ is not the best coach tactically, but he is the best fit for Iran's football culture. We need a coach that the players can respect and who can motivate the players. CQ is that coach like no other for us. Psychology can be more important than tactics. His fellow Portuguese Mourinho's man management skills are also superior and in my opinion the main reason for his early success and his relatively poorer coaching record later on in his career (he is not as good in terms of tactics and man management alone can only get you so far). As a bonus, CQ fixes our defense, which has traditionally been a problem. Also, at the world cup, we simply lack the quality to play an open game and get ahead (against at least 2 out of 3 teams in the group usually), so CQs tactics, as much as I personally dislike his style, are typically going to be the most fruitful for us in terms of results. Having said that, CQ's style is hit or miss. In 2014 we saw what happened against Bosnia, the same thing could have happened had Cristiano Ronaldo converted the penalty in 2018, but didn't, and we went on to draw. CQs style requires some luck and is hit and miss. For the Asian Cup, this is not a good tactic for us (see AC 2015, though to be fair to CQ in 2019 AC he cleaned up his act; see his failure to quality with Egypt), but in the world cup it's our only choice. I think CQ coming back would the world cup would be a good thing. It's not that unlikely that he comes back, because he has not had success recently result-wise and he might not have much other offers.
IMO: Queiroz, and more so the intense cult created by some of his followers, is like a cancer that destroys everything around it. When Egypt faced Senegal in AFCON and WCQ, I had to worry about how it would affect Iran because of the "Queiroz factor"!! If Egypt had won, the cult created around Qeuiroz would find justification for its cult worship. If Egypt was eliminated and Queiroz was left without a job, it was predictable that even a then undefeated coach who had rescued Iran from early elimination, winning 4 straight games in Bahrain in the preliminary rounds (including beating Bahrain 3:0 there), and who had guided Iran to its fastest qualification in the final rounds, clinching qualification without a loss with one draw (against S. Korea in an empty stadium in Tehran) and otherwise only wins, would face the issues we faced. Iran has participated in 5 World Cups. I have watched and rewatched each and everyone of our games. More than that, I know our players and their capabilities well. Of course, Iran can't play a very open game against its opponents. But this idea that "park the bus" is the only way to play them flies in the face of the evidence of decades of football played by Iran before Queiroz. Since WC98, until Qeuiroz, Iran never trailed an opponent at halftime. In none of those games since WC98, was Iran thrashed. None of them saw Iran "park the bus" except in the last 20 minutes against the US in WC98 when Iran had the lead. Even against Germany, where Iranian fans were critical of our conservative tactics, we played defensively but we didn't play this ugly football Queriroz is famous for. No one knows the style or tactics Skocic will choose for the World Cup. It is all speculation. Until Irran clinched its qualification, and before the entire edifice of our football was thrown into utter disarray on all fronts (from a federation whose president is sacked, to internal issues, to injuries and suspensions and Covid, to lack of any preparations etc) whatever tactics he choose, it gave us the required results. He was successful then because at that time, he led a team no one else wanted to coach because it was on the verge of elimination. So Skocic's quiet demeanor was what we needed. He guided Iran to wins over Bosnia (2:0), Syria (3;0 in friendlies and to wins over everyone ef our opponents in competitive games except the draw in Tehran against South Korea. Skocic isn't perfect, but his biggest mistake has to do with a player who Sardar Azmoun rightly lambasted because he knows that this player is behind a lot of issues Iran has faced. Let me be blunt: Skocic treated Ramin Rezaian wrongly, not inviting him to the national team and preferring to keep his former pupil, Sadegh Moharami, shielded from any potential competition. Ramin Rezaian is a friend of our best player: Mehdi Taremi. Naturally, he filled Taremi's impressionable ears with all the nonsense about Skocic that ipasses as football wisdom in Iran, creating a negative atmosphere between Skocic and Taremi. Rezaian is like a cancer but Skocic should have handled that issue better, especially since he had 'conflict of interest' issues when it comes to his competitor, Sadegh Mohrami. By that one mistake Skocic made, he sowed the seeds of finding himself in a situation he is now. The rest of the players who are against him are the ones who know they have not played well and are worried they may not be taken to Qatar or will not get to start.
On tactics, this idea that Skocic can't see the issues even ordinary fans can see, is ridiculous. He knows Iran's team and players very well. Under ordinary circumstances, he would be focused on what he should be focused on: trying to find the arrangement and tactics that would work best against our opponents. My own idea which I would like to see Iran test (but tactics are the last of Iran's problems right now!!) would have been for Iran to test a 5-3-2 formation testing several players outside their normal position. For instance, I like to see Allahyar Sayyadmanesh become our next Mehdi Mahdavikia and see Skocic do what Mayeli Kohan did with Mahdavikia: move him from a forward position and see if he can be our right wingback? Test him in that position. Test Ghodoos there too. Sadegh Moharami to me is a good player, but he might even do better in a central midfield type position better. Test him there since we have weakness in central midfield, where Moharami's technical skills and hustle can help, while his comparative lack of speed compared to the wingers we face at the World Cup won't hurt as much. Jahanbakhsh remains an excellent offensive weapon, but don't use him in midfield. He can't hold possession and is liable to cough up the ball a lot. Mehdi Taremi's best position is as a centerforward, but he is our best player overall and we will need him more to help our midfield initially in the first half of our games. Use him there. This is the formation I like Iran to test:: Beiranvand -- Sayadmanesh; Khalilzadeh, Kanaani, Hosseini; Amiri -- Ezatolahi (Ebrahimi), Moharami (Ebrahimi), Taremi -- Jahanbakhsh, Azmoun. Maybe Skocic has a better idea but that is what he should be focused on, not the bs he has faced since we clinched our qualification. Anyway, unless a miracle allows us to find someone who can unify our team, we aren't simply good enough to go to the World Cup without much preparation with a side divided into different opposing camps. We can't cut those players either. Each camp has some of our very best players!
What about Mohammad Mayeli Kohan? He managed Iran's futsal team to a fourth place finish at the 1992 World Cup and was cruising with Iran at the 1996 Asian Cup until they got knocked out by Saudi Arabia in the semi-finals on penalties. I wonder why he isn't in the picture at all when it comes to could succeed Skocic?
Mohammad Mayeli Kohan belonged to another time and age. He was treated worst than Skocic, despite guiding Iran to 3rd place at the Asian Cup with a young team beating Saudi Arabia 3:0 and S. Korea 6:2, losing the semifinal to the Saudis on penalties. His team continued to do well in qualifying, until the same divisions and tactics against him eventually saw the team fail to produce results. The Iranian coaches I mentioned are the best choices. Regardless of how they do, the younger ones especially will be able to gain experience and exposure that in the long run will pay dividends within Iran.
This Farsi report about the meeting between the IFF Board of Directors and Skocic yesterday is translated by "google translate". I have excerpted the most salient parts. Skocic looking for the name of the head coach! Detailed details of the decisive meeting of the national team The meeting of the managers of the football federation and the head coach of the national team has ended with the ambiguities being resolved and of course without a definite conclusion. .... In the completely vague statement of the football federation about the decisions of this meeting, it is stated: "The members of the board together with the general secretary of the federation raised their points of view and concerns regarding the conditions of the national team in a conversation with Dragan Skocic. In this meeting, the head coach of Iran's national football team gave explanations about the events and issues raised, as well as the questions of the board members. After Skocic's explanations, it was decided that the members of the Football Federation's Board of Directors will decide on the conditions and plans of the national team in another meeting .... According to what was heard, Skocic raised complaints about the events in his speech and expressed his displeasure with the way he announced his dismissal from the head coach of the national team and stressed that after two years of continuous and round-the-clock efforts for the national team and passing through difficult conditions, he expected such behavior. has not had In order to comfort this Croatian coach, the directors of the federation have emphasized that the members of the technical committee are not the main decision-makers and only give their advisory opinion, and also the final decision is taken by the board of directors, and for this reason, they have scheduled this meeting with Skocic to get his point of view about the conditions. come to hear In this meeting, Skocic presented a full report about his and his colleagues' efforts to the board of directors and reminded that he took over the national team in a situation where there was an equal possibility of elimination from the Asian Nations Cup and the World Cup. He mentioned cooperation with the federation and interaction with this group despite many problems, and according to him and his assistants, they have not received their salaries for months, but this has a negative effect on their efforts towards the success of the national team and technical preparation. has not had In today's meeting, Skocic defended his record and explained to the board about the match with Algeria and the conditions of the national team. But the most important question of the federation managers to this coach is about how he wants to control the strange atmosphere of the dressing room and the differences with several players, and what are the technical ideas and plans for the national team in the World Cup in three tough games against England, America and Wales. had. .... In this meeting, Skocic was asked questions about the occurrence of some irregularities and problems in the national team by the members of the board of directors, and the managers asked their questions about the reports they received from inside the team . I am the team, but I haven't had the task of checking and controlling the most private events related to the players and the events inside the camp, and until one or two o'clock in the morning, I am analyzing the opponents, watching videos and planning tactical and technical for the national team. .... The head coach of the national team also gave examples of how he dealt with the indisciplines and sidelines of the national team to the members of the board of directors or the marking of some players for disciplinary reasons and emphasized that he now knows what decision to take to take a united and motivated team to the World Cup. The margins inside the national team's dressing room should be controlled and managed. In today's meeting, referring to the two factions within the national team, Skocic said that he did not agree with the story [social media posts] of some players' support for him, nor the story [social media posts] of some other players who implicitly opposed the actions of his supporters. He emphasized that the players should behave professionally and focus only on technical issues, and he emphasized that what happened was not his heart's and professional desire, and the personal action of the players was without coordination with him. ... As a result, in this meeting, there was no agreement to officially end or continue cooperation, and Skocic was informed that the board of directors will hold another consultation meeting with other managers and members of the technical committee to make a final decision, and also in response to Skocic's question that the members He asked which coach you want to bring who knows the national team and players' conditions as much as I do and has complete control over the opponents of the World Cup, no important answer was given. One of the members of the board of directors emphasized the details of this meeting in response to the "Varzesh Se" reporter: "No decision has been made yet regarding the official dismissal or continued cooperation with Skocic, and the decision of the federation will be announced soon in this regard after further investigations."
The IFF announced today that Skocic will remain Iran's coach. While it now looks that the efforts to unseat Skocic have failed, and only managed to damage the unity of Iran's team, putting in question the fate of players who gave interviews and posted messages that where implicitly critical of Skocic (among others), I should note that this coaching controversy saga can resurface after September once the IFF has held elections to elect the president of the federation.
Seems a very unstable situation and can't really be helping the squad much at this stage. Sometimes things like this can help a squad bond, I hope thats the case for Iran. If they can get their act together they have a chance of making the last 16. Lets just say the preparation since qualification has been less than ideal.
Haven't said anything about the Australian team so far, mainly because I didn't expect us to qualify. Now that we are there I'm still not sure what our best lineup or formation is. That's mainly because the squad and team had so many changes and disruptions during qualifying it was rare that we had the same side from window to window. We even had our coach in covid isolation during parts of the last two Asian windows. Maybe I will use the Peru game as a starting point. In that game we played a variation of 4-3-3 with a defensive midfielder, two central midfielders, a central striker and 2 wingers moving from midfield to attack. In defence this reverted to a 4-5-1 formation. This is probably the formation that suited that lineup the best. Will we change it? Probably not, although Arnold often uses 4-4-2. WHo are the best players? Not sure. Definitely Matt Ryan in goal. He is a very good keeper/sweeper and his shot stopping has improved in recent years. In defence we have a few options with lots of players of similar ability. We used Wright and Rowles and they did a good job and hopefully Harry Souttar is fit for the World Cup and Sainsbury is also available. Left and right back positions are far from settled as we seem to use different players each game. There are no standouts there in my mind. Aaron Mooy is probably a must in the defensive midfield role. He provides some stabilty as he is good on the ball and his distribution is generally pretty good. Hrustic and Irvine are my picks for the two central midfield roles. If Tom Rogic comes back for the World Cup (I've no idea why he pulled out of the playoffs) he can also be used here, either as a starter or a sub. Probably be more effective as a sub at that level. Martin Boyle is a must in one of the two winger roles. He may not be the most skillfull player but his energy and determination are invaluable. Matt Leckie plays on the other side. Awer Mobil is cover for this type of formation. If two of those 3 aren't picked I think we revert to 4-4-2. Striker is where we are a bit weak. Jamie McLaren is probably my pick from what's available. I think our goals in general play (if we score any) will come from midfielders, but any goals we score will more likely come from set piece plays. I would grade our performances based on squad and opposition as zero points F one point C two points B three points A- Four points A Qualification for round of 16 A+
Despite of having possibly the most talented, experienced squad since 2010, I am really preoccupied with our central midfield and fullbacks. Our depth is very thin in both positions and level of play is far below FIFA World Cup standard than any others. Our opponents in June friendlies exposed such vulnerabilities. Paulo Bento has got his hands full to mitigate them by no later then end of October. While I do not agree with idea of so-called 'Parking the Bus' (We do not have right personnel to begin with), we would need to deploy a lone striker with mobility and high-work rate. That being said, 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1 type of formation should be ideal for us to get some positive results.