Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 After the doom and gloom of the last few weeks, I think the San Jose faithful should be ecstatic to have a 50% chance. And for AEG to acknowledge the existance of a local investor, you folks should be giddy. To be honest, I beleive most of us have been thinking the Quakes had absolutely no chance and now you got at least half a chance. That's good news, if you ask me.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Point is there are plans for a stadium, and alternatives should the current plans fall through. The team may move out of DC proper, but its pretty unlikely they move to another market all together.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 That's exactly my point. We'll know in 2-3 years time if DC United will have a stadium deal or not. That's why I rate DC United as safe for the next 2-3 years. In 3 years time, if there is no prospect of a SSS and it looks like DC United will not break even until 2020, I think the owners will put the team for sale like KC/SJ. At least that how I would do it if I am the owners. However, it looks very good that DC United will have a SSS by 2008 or 2009. My beef is with people that believe DC United will NEVER move. 99.5% chance of not moving is not NEVER.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Unlike DC United, the Yankees actually make money. If the Yankees continue to lose millions years after years with no prospect of profit without a Yankee Stadium, and they could make a profit by moving it to City X, there is a chance that Yankees will move. How much of a chance? I don't know. People who refuse to believe that MLS will not move a team even if it can't make a profit for the foreseeable future is living in fantasy land. Look at the NFL, they moved out of Los Angeles TWICE. Look at baseball, they moved a lot of teams around. Look at NHL, they moved some teams out of Canada and into the SUn belt States.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Will the Yankees move if plans for a new ballpark fall through? (See, the criteria for the Yankees moving is a bit different than the KC Royals, MN Twins or TB Devil Rays -- and the issue is not just micro economics) I don't want to hijack this thread any further so I'll let it go with this, but DCU has too much brand identity to MLS to ever move the team, even if as a stand-alone entity, they lose a modest amount of money. MLS is not the NFL. It's not even the NBA or NHL. It can't afford to lose its most well-known brand, and one with one of its most consistent fan bases, at least at a time when it's struggling to make itself and many of its clubs a known brand. Now if DCU's fanbase disappeared and attendance stopped being strong, that would be a different story. (Again, the relevance of attendance is not just monetary, it's an issue of image for the league. Perhaps the Green Bay Packers would be a similar analogy, with the exception that the NFL has reached a point where it could survive the loss of a marquee brand like that. MLS hasn't reached that point.)
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Again, I'd like to know when you audited DC's books? I also disagree with your statement that the Yankees make money. I believe they actually operate in the red as a stand-alone entity net of their YankeeNets media arrangements. If MLS were the NFL, MLB, NBA or NHL, then that might be true. But it's not. (sorry, this really will be my last hijack post. )
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 You're right about that, but DC is the flagship franchise it would be like shutting the Cosmos or Yankees or Cowboys down (See the NASL which is the only league to actually have their flagship go under). While you can envision that scenario happening or even a scenario where it is even plausible, but it would likely also signify the deathknell of the league (since it would by your timeline have to occur within the next few years with either a stadium or they're gone). MLS cannot do without LA, DC and a team representing the NYC metro area and have any hope of keeping Madison Ave $$$ funneling into the coffers. DC United is MLS to most people from the outside looking in. You can't clip your brand and hope to succeed. Anheiser Busch can't just say we're not making Budweiser anymore because it isn't profitable as we hoped. If they did it to Michelob or Busch it wouldn't look good for them, but they could live with it. Doing that to Bud or Bud Light would either send their company under or be a good prognosticator that they're already on their way. DC, LA and Metrostars are currently the "Budweisers" of MLS.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 You obviously have no idea what the ******** you are talking about. As several other posters have pointed out, it is all about the control of revenue. Ticket sales is just one piece of the puzzle and not the largest by any means. Parking, concessions and signage, not to mention luxury boxes are the big ticket items. You need 100% of those dollars, and you don't get that playing in someone else's house. Then there is the local sponsorship package (which Chivas USA understands) and local TV (which the folks in LA have done with Fox). Kevin Payne undestands this, AEG understands this and deep down inside paranoid Earthquake fan gets this. That's why the threat of moving ANY team without its OWN SSS is real. 17K will not keep anyone around in today's economy jacka$$!
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 I will just say this: MLB might not be able to afford to lose the NY Yankees (even if the team lose tens of millions each year) but MLS can afford to lose DC United if the team lose $2-3 million each year with no prospect of breaking even. In business, firm/company can lose money for a number of years but if it has no prospect of breaking even for the next 10-15 years, it will likely go bankcrupt. DC United is a business with owners who are looking for a return. Here's what DC United's future might hinge on "We are going to create a large neighborhood," boasted Payne. "The first phase which will come even before a stadium is built will cost up to $700 million. We are 100 percent convinced that the project we will undertake will not only dramatically change the fortunes of DC United, it will also change the fortunes of the Anacostia community as well." One key difference between the fight over a new stadium for the Nationals and the proposal for Poplar Point is that the baseball stadium project depends on a gross receipts tax on major businesses in Washington, in other words, public financing. Payne’s plan calls for all private funding, and he notes that a few potential lenders have expressed interest in helping him finance the project. Will Payne and the other owners of DC United get $700 million from the potential lenders? Yes, but it's not a certainty. I wouldn't rate DC United chance of staying in DC as a 100% 'sure thing' if there is no prospect for a stadium in the forseeable future. I agree. Let's stop with the hijacking of this thread and get back to the original topic. It's pointless to discuss the view that DC United will NEVER move and the view point that there is a small chance that DC United will move. Let's hope that in 3 years time, the DC United SSS is a reality.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 arghhhhhhh MLS without a DC franchise would be like MLB without a NY Franchise ( Yankees)
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 This isn't even remotely relevant to the discussion - mainly because the Yankees already control most of the revenue from their current stadium. Please try again.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Let's say in March that we knew in November that the Quakes would still have no announced owner or stadium. What would we have said their approximate odds of survival were? It might be for a series of negative reasons - no buyer, no suitable stadium deal in another city, no chance of making a profit elsewhere in the near term - but I think the Quakes will be back in Spartan for yet one more year. Or if not in Spartan, the South Bay equivalent of Dragon Stadium. If someone isn't interested in buying your used car, you might not get new upholstery, but you don't push it over a cliff, either.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Spot on. Now let the speculation begin on what the South Bay equivalent of Dragon Stadium will be. Bye bye, Spartan Shops.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Agreed. I think that by December 1st we should know where both teams are playing next season. If San Jose is moving, I'd think they'd wait until after MLS Cup weekend to announce it. If either team is being transfered to new local ownership, I'm guessing they'll want to introduce the new ownership - if possible - during MLS Cup weekend. If Kansas City is doing a move now and expand back when a stadium is built, I can see that announcement being next weekend as it is a "win-win" scenario. In short, good news next weekend, bad news by December 1st. If we've heard nothing by December 1st on either team, the time frame for relocation begins to get prohibitively small for 2006. I don't see contraction as an option, whatsoever.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Time for a reminder. San Jose Earthquakes have been an institution since 1974. The MLS chose San Jose for the FIRST game to be played here. Obviously, the Quake fans know full well the core fan support and the potential to easily double the current range. Plagued with AEG favoritism for other teams, the MLS league bending over to corporations like AEG with deep pockets, Quakes continuous GM turnover, SpartanShops hijacking our stadium for $$ parking & $$ concessions, AEG manipulating players locations, and our own lame duck Gonzo Mayor favoring the Oakland A's long-shot & unlikely move to San Jose over the existing QUAKES team........only us Quake fans know what it is like to survive these past years with a roller coaster. To try to say that us Quake Players & Fans should be "ecstatic for 50% chance" to continue to have a team is ridiculous. We expect only to continue to be part of the league, the other consequences? We join the A league soccer league and kiss MLS goodbye forever.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Boy, you DC United (you & bofahey) fans sure have a bloated sense of self worth!! MLS Doesn't HAVE any "flag ship" franchises, and if they do, its probably the LA Galaxy. MLS has either franchises that are good for the league or bad for the league, but none are irreplaceable today. Lee
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 Bridgeview aren't getting 100% of naming rights. They are getting a large percentage, but not 100%.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 The Earthquakes were the only team that stayed in business as an outdoor team after the folding of the NASL. The San Jose area has had a team at the highest existing level of US professional outdoor soccer for 29 of the last 32 years. 1993-5 is the only gap.
Re: AEG: Odds of Quakes Move 50-50 DC has no chance no of moving, because they are 99% sure to get a stadium. Any talk of moving from Payne is obviously a scare tactic.