Adu and other hot prospects-lessons from tennis.

From The Times (March 1, 1988)

"The youngster with the best chance of real success is Peter Sampras, aged 16 ... another contender is Michael Chang ..."

 

Jimmy Arias was a top ten player before his knee blew out IIRC. If Adu becomes a top ten player, just not number one, I would take it.

I see your point, but I don't think it's any reason to give up hope, or even to temper our enjoyment. Ture, he may not complete his ascent, but why shouldn't I enjoy his skill and ability while it's ripe?

In the recent rash of high school players who have gone directly to the pros, how many are definite failuters at this point, and how many are all-star-ish caliber players? Garnett, Kobe, McGrady, Jermaine O'Neal. Expect LeBron James to pan out. True , there's always a Johnathan Bender, and the jury is still out on Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. But it's a pretty good track record.

 

I'm always amazed at how quickly players get written off. Bender is only in his fourth season as a pro, and people are calling him a bust. The same thing happened during Jermaine O'Neal's first four seasons, too.

 

Lessons? Barring injury or early drug use, these guys tend to pan out.

 

back off bender, the pacers are bringing him in slowly. Just look what they did with O'neal and Harrington. Bender will get there, too.

 

Yeah, I remember Jimmy Arias. I saw him play in the D.C. tournament in the mid eighties, when it was still on clay.

He lost.

 

Re: Re: Adu and other hot prospects-lessons from tennis.

May be the writer for Time magazine was ahead of this time. Between 1988 and 1989, Agassi shot up to number 2 in world ranking. Chang took the French Open title and became the youngest player ever to take a Grand Slam. Back then, Sampras was better known as Chang's double partner. And there was Jim Courier -- better known as Agassi's roommate. Yes, I was tennis freak in the late 1980's. Yes, I know Jimmy Aris.

These players are in their late teen by 1988 and 1989. Their chance of failure will be smaller given their age. We should look at players who were discovered when they were 13. The Williams sisters, Diego Maradona and Tiger Woods came to mind. But again, I only heard of the Williams sister when they were 13 year old. There are probably millions of atheltics who did not make it after being discovered when they were 13. Just look at the number of stars who emerged from the Little League World Series.... Chris Drury???

 

Re: Re: Re: Adu and other hot prospects-lessons from tennis.

IIRC, a big part of the reason that Sampras didn't break through until later was the fact that he held off on going pro. If you have access to an old news database, go check out what Tom Gorman was saying about Sampras. The description was essentially "Jimmy Connors but with perfect technique."

 

Firstly, Adu is already good enough to play in the highest pro league here in the US. He hasn't made it YET, but that is only a technicality due to his age. Memo, Gaven and Ashe have all been selected for the MLS already, and Freddy is clearly at the same level that they are. He isn't going to get worse.

Playing for an MLS team is much different than playing professional tennis, where you are totally on your own out there. Teammates provide emotional and physical support. If Freddy were to suddenly go abroad, burnout might be more of a concern, but that isn't going to happen for a few more years. Comparing Freddy to arguably the best US athlete of the late 80's and early 90's (Pete Sampras) is a bit far-fetched at this point.

Also, if you were involved in competitive junior tennis, than you must know that it ISN'T always the better player who is considered superior, and gets the benefit. Tournament seeding and regional training selections are subjectively based in many instances, and they certainly can affect a players USTA junior ranking. I will admit that the effects of politics are easier to overcome due to the 1v1 (or 2v2) nature of the competition in tennis, but you can still get screwed.

The bottom line is that there is no way to tell how good someone will eventually be when they are still a teenager. Freddy COULD be the next Pele, or something horrible could happen and he could quit soccer and become a doctor. Who knows?

 

Re: Re: Adu and other hot prospects-lessons from tennis.

Oops, I guess you can guage stardom at an early age. A better example is to look over at England a see all the 15 yr olds signing on with youth teams. What percentage of those "hot prospects" make it through to the Premier League and the English national team? I don't know, it'd be an interesting study. However, in the US Adu is going to get much more press because there has never been such an American soccer prospect. However, if you ask the English I am sure they have seen it all before. This is not to say that I am not thrilled about Freddy!

 

Here's the thing while I agree that the relationship:

Young star -------> Future hall of famer

Is by no means solid the relationship:

Future hall of famer -------> Young star

I'll use baseball as an example since I know the most about it and it's players. The average Major League Rookie is usually about 23 or 24 years old.

Here's a list of the top players careerwise in OPS+ (a fairly well respected stat in rating overall hitting prowess) that played mainly in the 20th century, and when they were rookies:

Babe Ruth, debuted at 19, rookie year 20.
Ted Williams, rookie 20.
Lou Gehrig, debut: 19, rookie: 22
Barry Bonds, rookie 21.
Rogers Hornsby, debut: 19, rookie: 20
Mickey Mantle, rookie: 19
Joe Jackson, birthdate in question
Ty Cobb, debut: 18
Jimmie Foxx, debut: 17, rookie: 19
Mark McGwire, debut: 22, rookie: 23
Frank Thomas, rookie: 22
Stan Musial, debut: 20, rookie: 21
Hank Greenberg, debut: 19, rookie: 22
Johnny Mize, rookie: 23
Tris Speaker, debut: 19, rookie: 21
Manny Ramirez, debut: 21, rookie: 22
Dick Allen, debut: 21, rookie: 22
Willie Mays, rookie: 20
Hank Aaron, rookie: 20
Joe DiMaggio, rookie: 21
Mel Ott, debut: 17, rookie: 18

In other words, the best hitters in the history of baseball universally were recognized as major league caliber players ahead of the average major leaguer.

In particular, Bonds started to get pub at around 14 or 15 (largely because of his dad, he was able to stand out), but the whole lot of them were highly regarded youth players (McGwire and Thomas were record holders at their Colleges, Ramirez had Indians fans drooling as early as two years before his debut). The biggest advantage in this list is that it uses an objective measure and still holds true.

So while highly regarded youth players don't necessarily become superstars. Players who become superstars are almost invariably youth superstars as well. A big point in Freddy's favor.

 

Kirovski is the poster boy for US Soccer players that were much hyped as Youths and just plateued early.

Anyways, HS players drafted into the NBA since '95, brithyear in parens:
Kevin Garnett (76)
Kobe Bryant (78)
Jermaine O'Neal (78)
Tracy McGrady (79)
Al Harrington (80)
Jonathon Bender (81)
Darius Miles (81)
Deshaun Stevenson (81)
Kwame Brown (82)
Tyson Chandler (82)
Eddie Curry (82)
Amare Staudemire (82)

Of the ones I think its pretty safe to draw conclusions for, Garnett Bryant and McGrady all go into the superstar category, with Oneal being a very good pro.

As for the rest, well the jury is still out, but I dont expect as many to develop into the star group as the first HS players to break in the league. McGrady was the slowest to show superstar potential of the 3, and that was apparent by his 3rd year in the league.

 

I'm in Phoenix and Staudemire's the real deal. If he develops a jump shot he'll be unstoppable.

Also note that in many of the above cases, talent wasn't the main reason why they were out early, eligibility for a college program was.

 

The difference between the basketball player example and Adu is that the kid is 13. Soccer is a younger mans game than basketball. When you look at the key players on world cup rosters, they're typically 22-27. With basketball, there are a lot of guys who are key players into their 30s. Stockton and Malone. Jordan. Even a lot of the players who aren't option one take a larger role or become "the man" for their teams in the playoffs--Reggie Miller for one.

That said, there's still a lot of difference between an 18 year old's talent to 28 and a 13 year old's talent at 22 or 23. Take a look at the McDonald's All-America team or Street and Smith's high school all-stars. For every Kobe Bryant there are 10 Jamie Brandons and Lawrence Funderburkes. Jamie who? Exactly. These all-Americas are 18. How many of these guys were projected to be superstars at 15 or 16 even?

Take a look at the best starting five of the last 25 years in hoops: Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Bird, Magic, and Jordan. Only one was identified as an unbelievable talent at 15 or 16: Magic.

If Adu is what we think he is, we will probably know at 17 or 18 in a younger man's game like soccer. Not until then.

 

Yeah, and he still managed to play in the Champion's League with Borussia Dortmund and score goals in the Premiereship. Not a 'superstar' career, but also not a guy who never made it to the upper levels of the sport.

 

I really can't comment on all of the basketball or baseball players since I don't follow either of the sports, but traditionally, in the rest of the world, the development path of soccer is very intensive in the teenage years, much more so than our amateur baseball and basketball leagues here in the U.S. That's another reason IMHO why more youth prospects show up in soccer than in any other sport.

 

Well I dont think there is any question Adu will be a good player (baring injury, knock on wood), the question is "how good?"

 

Who knows. The road to pro stardom is long and treacherous -- injury, burn-out, drug use, you name it… Personally, I'm just glad we now have an extremely exciting young player to follow. The rest of the story, we will see....

 

???? Did you perhaps mean another exciting young player to watch? We've got--Beasley, Donovan, Convey, Quaranta, Johnson, Gonzalez, Gaven, Spector, Casey, Buddle, Clark, etc.

 

Adu is 13. All those guys mentioned were in tehir late teen. Amare Staudemire is actually 20.

I don't think we can draw a line.

Agassi got a Grand Slam.... that's not bad. Chang was constantly in the top 10 at his peak. So that is not so bad for a career.

 

That's right. Adu gets the most buzz right now but he may or may not be the best of the bunch down the road. Again, we will find out...

 

From a European perspective, Kirovski did pretty much what was expected. He was never a standout prospect in ManU's youth system, and he didn't become a good reserve team player until age ~20. For a player like that, you expect him to end up as a marginal first-teamer for a top-level team.

That's when we're talking about an attacker who's in a pro environment from age 15. It only looks like he "plateaued early" when you compare him with the guys who stay in school until their early 20s.

 

He was quoted as being better than Giggs and Scholes by Man U. youth coaches when they were all on the same youth teams. If that counts for anything.