Here's the ELO ratings for the teams from CONCACAF and AFC for comparision: 1.= ranking in confederation (1) = ranking world wide * = still in tournament CONCACAF -------------- 1. Mexico (10) * 2. U.S. (19) * 3. Costa Rica (39) * 4. Honduras (49) 5. Jamaica (55) 6. Guatemala (59) * 7. Cuba (68) 8. Canada(69) 9. Panama (79) * 10. Trinidad and Tobago (87) * AFC ------ 1. Japan (11) * 2. Iran (22) * 3. South Korea (38) * 4. Saudi Arabia (53) * 5. Uzbekistan (55) * 6. China (57) 7. Bahrain (62) * 8. Oman (64) 9. Jordan (65) 10. Iraq (75) 11. Kuwait (77) * 12. Qatar (85) 13. North Korea (86) * ALL MIXED UP ------------------ Mexico (10) * Japan (11) * U.S. (19) * Iran (22) * South Korea (38) * Costa Rica (39) * Honduras (49) Saudi Arabia (53) Uzbekistan (55) * Jamaica (55) China (57) Guatemala (59) * Bahrain (62) * Oman (64) Jordan (65) Cuba (68) Canada(69) Iraq (75) Kuwait (77) * Panama (79) * Qatar (85) North Korea (86) * Trinidad and Tobago (87) * Anyway, rating systems are BS. The US beats both Mexico and Japan on the field.
Here's the FIFA rankings for teams from Concacaf and AFC. These too are all mixed up. Mexico (8) * USA (11) * Japan (17) * Iran (20) * South Korea (24) * Costa Rica (27) * Saudi Arabia (30)* Jordan (39) Iraq (45) Bahrain (48) * China (49) Uzbekistan (51) * Jamaica (53) Oman (55) Honduras (58) Kuwait (60) * Guatemala (62) * Trinidad and Tobago (64) * Thailand (72) Cuba (81) UAE (88) Syria (89) Turkmenistan (93) Canada (95) North Korea (96) * Haiti (98) Indonesia (99) Panama (101) * El Salvador(102)
Ignoring all of the serious external problems with the plan, there are essentially two huge problems that kill the idea: 1) If North Korea qualifies, most of the unified team will be South Korean anyway, so what would be the point. 2) North Korea's not going to qualify. They snuck in from an easy group despite only getting one point from their main rivals in the group the UAE.
USA wins 7-1 in Pyongyang, the news of who scores the hat trick is kept under wraps until a week later...
To answer the original question, the most likely 4th place finishers in CONCACAF are Costa Rica, Guatemala, or Panama. IRN-CRC would be a toss-up, but IRN would be favored over GUA or PAN. That said, I would expect IRN to qualify directly. The most likely 5th place finishers in AFC are Saudia Arabia, Uzbekistan, or Kuwait. CRC or GUA would be favored over all three. KSA would be favored over PAN, and UZB-PAN or KUW-PAN would be toss-ups.
I think that guatemala,costa rica and panama would be able to beat the asian 5th.Im not sure about Trinidad and tobago(there not at the best level right now and i think they can do better wit their talent).
A year from now, we'll be able to see how these predictions pan out. One thing that's not been mentioned is the momentum factor. The way the AFC and CONCACAF final stages are set up, I think the Asian team could come into the play-off matches with a bit of an edge. CONCACAF directly qualifies its top 3 teams. Let's say the 4th place team loses out on goal difference or fails to get a needed result in its final match which puts it in that dreaded 4th spot. That team would enter the playoffs on a "downer". Now look at Asia's system. With two groups of four teams each, the top 2 in each group go directly to Germany. The two teams that finish 3rd will have a home-and-home playoff to determine who will play the CONCACAF team for a trip to WC 2006. That team may come into such a playoff a bit fatigued, but with the adrenaline rush of knowing that they still have a chance to make it. Based on that, and the current FIFA rankings, I think Asia has just as good a chance to qualify 5 teams as CONCACAF has to qualify 4. Having said all that, it would be great if Guatemala or Trinidad & Tobago could avoid the playoff and qualify directly. To me, they are the most unlucky teams when it comes to qualifying. Something good has to break their way sooner or later! The same could be said for Bahrein in Asia. Panama and Uzbekistan haven't been to a World Cup either, but they would be considered "gatecrashers" compared to the overall past successes (or failures) of the other 3. So for now, I would go with Guatemala vs. Bahrein for the final CONCACAF-AFC showdown, with Guatemala coming out on top.
Fair point that my use of the term "tradition" was probably ill-advised. All I meant by my post was that there seems to be an AFC "big four" that is likely to qualify out of this group.
point taken. Oh, and I agree with you. They (the big four) should, and would advance given a qualifying tournament akin to that used in CONMEBOL. But we don't know what the Asian draw will look like do we? We could get two or three of the big four in the same qualifying group. Also there always seem to be conspiracy theories floating around Asia about these draws-- the Saudis aways seem to awarded a cakewalk. Or so I've been told by a disgruntled Iranian friend. I seem to remember this Iranian friend of mine being upset because the Saudis offered free cars to every member of some minnow, if they beat Iran (Or so he said). The minnow duly won the game (a real hack-fest), Saudi Arabia went to the World Cup, and the Iranians stayed home.
that would be classic. By Summer 2005, I'm pretty sure that George Bush would have already have his eyes set on Iran.
Replace Guatemala with Honduras and Panama with Jamaica and it doesn't sound so ridiculous anymore. But even that doesn't matter since the two teams that qualified did so legitimately at the expense of those that did not. Regardless of who choked and who didn't in our semi-final round, the last world cup proved that CONCACAF deserves 4 spots. Unlike Asia, whose #3 and #4 teams were outscored 0-21 in their six games. And before you guys automatically give Saudi Arabia one of the 4 (?!?!?) automatic Asian spots, consider that they didn't qualify for the Asian Cup Quarter-finals as they finished third place in their first round group that was topped by........Uzbekistan.
Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia's 5th.which asian team do you think the 4th placed team will vs?
Re: Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? Are you f****** kidding me? It will be between Costa Rica and Guatemala. US and Mexico finish top two and Trinidad and Panama struggle to get more than four. Costa Rica and Guatemala will decide the third and fourth place spots. Whichever one of these teams does not get AT LEAST four points against T&T and Panama will slip to fourth. And as for the question? Yes, I think our fourth will beat Asia's fifth in a home-and-home. I'm looking forward to seeing Iran or Saudi Arabia or whomever play in the sweltering jungle of Mazatenango or the rabid atmosphere of Saprissa Stadium. Of course, Tehran ain't no walk in the part either.
Re: Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? I think it is tough to say...Panama, Guatemala, and T&T are all pretty average...so I think it depends on who will be 4th in Asia (I have absolutely no idea on that one). I think it is very reasonable to think almost any team COULD beat the 4th team from Concacaf as there is a major major dropoff after the first 2 or 3. T&T are basically a bunch of amateurs with one good player. Guatemala and Panama are better, but still basically teams made up of players of which only a very very small number could actually even play in MLS.
Re: Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? US and Mexico will have a tough time against Iran let alone a 4th place team. Right now my bet is Iran over US or Mexico if they played. I seriously doubt Iran will be Asia's 5th.
Re: Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? US: Quarterfinalists in World Cup 2002. Mexico: Went out in the second round; won what was considered second-toughest group. Iran: Failed to qualify for World Cup 2002. I seriously don't understand why you think Iran would beat the US and/or Mexico. The US would beat Iran here 2-0 and go to Tehran and not lose by more than two. Mexico, well, they'd probably thrash Iran 3-0 or 4-0 in Azteca.
Re: Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? No. I think it will be: It will be Mexico Costa Rica Guatemala USA US didnt look to impressive in the first round. They seemed to have a tough time on the road. We shall see...
Re: Is concacaf's 4th able to beat asia' 5th? If by a tough time on the road you mean not losing then I agree with you. Costa Rica has struggled all through qualifing, first with a "powerful" Cuban team in the first round, they needed the away goals rule to limp into the semi's. Guatemala doesn't have the depth to finish ahead of either the US or Mexico, Costa Rica is a different story because they're so Jeckyl & Hyde. Lastly Mexico's semi group was so pathetically easy, their media dubbed it "Mexico's caribbean vacation". No way in hell does the US finishes lower than third in the hex.