A Statistical Look at Championships

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Colonial717, Nov 14, 2005.

  1. Colonial717

    Colonial717 New Member

    Aug 5, 2004
    Arlington, VA
    Okay, in order to figure out how the league looked after 10 years I tried to find a statistical formula for championships. This is what I came up with.

    Interamerica: 7 (because you have to win the CCC, and then win against the Libertoras champion, which is harder than just winning the CCC, and it was a huge feather in MLS' cap early in its existance. The problem is that from what I can tell, LA did not have a chance to win this. But thats how it works sometimes, if DC won the Sudamerica this year you can bet that it would be worth a whole lot more than anything here even though no other MLS team had a chance)

    CCC: 6 (1 and 1/2 of the importance of the MLS Cup)

    MLS Cup: 4

    US Open: 3 (3/4 of the importance of the MLS Cup)

    Supporters: 2 (1/2 of the importance of the MLS Cup)

    Runner-Up: 1 (this is because looking back in thirty years this is what is going to be remembered after the rest of things mentioned. I wondered about putting it in, but it really does add something as it rewards consitancy (LA has the most of these) and correctly imho puts some teams ahead, i.e. NE is better than the Metros).
     
  2. Colonial717

    Colonial717 New Member

    Aug 5, 2004
    Arlington, VA
    And the results are:

    DC: 37 (7,6,4,4,4,4,3,2,2,1)
    LA: 27 (6,4,4,3,3,2,2,1,1,1)
    CHI: 14 (4,3,3,2,1,1)
    SJ: 10 (4,4,2)
    KC: 10 (4,3,2,1)
    CBus: 5 (3,2)
    DAL: 3
    NE: 2
    COL: 1
    NY: 0
    CHV: 0
    RSL: 0

    Also with points in this system but not in the league:
    Rhinos: 3
    Tampa: 2
    Miami: 2
     
  3. Colonial717

    Colonial717 New Member

    Aug 5, 2004
    Arlington, VA
    Talking Points:

    Are the wieghts correct? I am trying to find the best way to do this, and am open to logical arguements to persuade me. It would be cool if we could come to some sort of an agreement on correct wieghts, but this is BigSoccer so I am not that hopeful. ;) I was most wary about the InterAmerica (because I am a DC supporter) and the Runner-up, (maybe just drop it?)

    Does this correctly show how good the teams are historically? Keeping in mind some teams good now have sucked early on (NE and SJ) and vice versa. While allowing that the league is young so there will be some outliers.

    LA has better attendance and is the money maker of the league right now and in the recent past. This is important to note so this doesn't degenerate into a LA is better, no DC is better thread. I am giving LA the money making status but thats a different thread, this thread is about championships. And you might have a valid point about the wieghting, so lets argue it that way and not bring in other random things that don't realate nearly as much.
     
  4. Rocket

    Rocket Member

    Aug 29, 1999
    Chicago
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It might not be a bad idea to notch up pts for runner-up.

    After all, making it to MLS Cup is a good accomplishment for your team even if you end up losing in it.

    I would give half the points to the runner-up as you do to the champion, and round down if its not a whole #.
     
  5. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    You could put Copa Sudamericana in there. If we're going to play in it, anyway.

    Perhaps that would be as much as 15 points.

    Do they still play the Interamerican Cup? For some reason I didn't think so.
     
  6. Short Corner

    Short Corner Member

    Jun 28, 2001
    Supporters Sheild and runners up should get more.

    CCC and Inter-American are greatly overrated, especially since they are a double dip: DC's run to the Interamerican nets 13 points in your system, more than 3 MLS cups. Since the clubs participating in the CCC routinely blow it off, such a weighting is perverse. The Interamerican cup was a single game against a team that did not take it seriously-it should not count for as much as an achievement that takes an entire season.

    I would use these weights:

    MLS cup: 4

    CCC: 4

    CCC + InterAmerican 6

    Open Cup: 3

    Supporters' Shield: 3

    Finalist: 2

    Results:

    DC: 33
    LA: 30
    Chi: 17
    SJ: 11
    KC: 12
    CBus: 6
    Dal: 3
    NE: 3
    Col: 2
     

Share This Page