A Pattern of Incumbent Presidents Losing

Discussion in 'Elections' started by EvanJ, Dec 1, 2020.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I thought of the fact that starting in 1800 and going in multiples of 44, all six incumbent presidents weren't re-elected (or weren't elected for the first time if they became president during a term):

    1800: John Adams became the first incumbent to lose when he lost to Thomas Jefferson. Adams was a Federalist, and it led to the end of the Federalist party. Jefferson was a Democratic-Republican, which became the Democrats.

    1844: John Tyler was kicked out of the Whig party while he was president and didn't get to run. He became president on April 4, 1841 when William Henry Harrison died a month into his term. At that time presidents and Congresses started on March 4, not January 3 for Congress and January 20 for president like it is now. James K. Polk was elected.

    1888: Grover Cleveland became the first incumbent to win the popular vote and lose the election. That has now happened five times, and it's still the only time that an incumbent lost. Benjamin Harrison won, but Cleveland beat Harrison in 1892. Cleveland is the only nonconsecutive president. He's the 22nd and 24th president, and I don't like that he gets two numbers. Because Cleveland has two numbers, Trump is the 45th president, but he's the 44th person to be president. Trump wants to do what Cleveland did and beat Biden in 2024.

    1932: Early in the Great Depression, Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

    1976: Gerald Ford, who is the only president who wasn't elected president or vice president, lost to Jimmy Carter.

    2020: Trump lost.

    Two became president without being elected, and two left during horrible economic times. Adams and Cleveland were the only incumbents to lose without one of those things. I wonder what will happen in 2064. I'm 35, and I hope to be alive then.
     
  2. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    That is a crazy coincidence! My life is more fuller knowing this odd factoid.

    The Sun also has an 11- (or 22-) year activity cycle. However, I think that has only been regular over the last century-ish. 88 years is another solar cycle.
     
  3. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Here is another crazy coincidence. Diego Maradona always said that Fidel Castro was like a father to him. They both died on November 25th. (4 years apart).
     
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  4. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    So Bernie is safe for at least another 51 weeks.
     
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  5. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [​IMG]

    Patterns
     
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  6. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    When I was a kid, I was VERY VERY VERY aware that the presidents elected in 1840, 1860, 1880, 1900, 1920, 1940, and 1960 all died in office.

    Then Reagan made it through.

    Good luck Joe!
     
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  7. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    He barely made it through.
     
  8. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    But then W got through it okay from 2000.

    Well, in terms of being alive. The country, on the other hand . . .
     
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  9. Pauncho

    Pauncho Member+

    Mar 2, 1999
    Bexley, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Reagan broke the pattern and made it through only because of advances in emergency room medicine.
     
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  10. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    And declining standards for assassins.
     
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  11. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Yeah. Jodie Foster was not impressed.
     
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  12. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    But she had an "Army"!

    (Oh, 1980's Arizona skate punk)
     
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  13. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Holy shit, I never knew this.

    TIL...
     
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  14. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    Thanks Obama.
     
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  15. Dyvel

    Dyvel Member+

    Jul 24, 1999
    The dog end of a day gone by
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ireland Republic

     
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  16. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Blatant Localism was one of my favorite 7" EPs as a teenager.
    Cokes and Snicker!
    (actually a pretty terrible combination)
     
  17. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Speaking of meaningful patterns: the Crew won MLS Cup in '08, and Obama was elected. The Crew won MLS Cup in '20, and Biden was elected.

    Need I say more?
     
  18. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    #18 song219, Dec 16, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2020
    It's one of those causation paradoxes in which something that happened later in time causes something that happened sooner. In 2016 the MLS Cup was played on foreign soil and a foreign team played in it. We all know what else happened that year.
     
  19. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And the Dos a Cero streak was broken in '16.

    I mean, seriously, you can't argue with hard data.
     
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  20. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    I'm normally against xenophobia myself but the science speaks for itself.
     
  21. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    This is a good one. The correlation between the consumption of margarine and the divorce rate in Maine -

    [​IMG]
     
  22. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    But does divorcing make people eat margarine or does eating margarine cause people to get divorced?
     
  23. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    If my wife brought margarine home, I would divorce her. So I say the latter, albeit with a sample size of one.
     
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  24. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    We are just discovering all types of things in social science today.
     
  25. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Cause and effect. Less divorces result in more people who can afford to buy real butter.
     
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