A Look at the teams in World Cup 2018 through the Statistics that Matter

Possession stats are totally meaningless. When the score is even, it might indicate which side has more interest to win the match and is more willing to take risks committing greater numbers to win the ball. But it doesn't mean that team is better. The same way, all things being equal, a side the defends with 9-10 players behind the ball should do better defensively than a side that doesn't, by the same token, a side that is committing more numbers in midfield and pressing up will naturally have more possession of the ball. The price they pay for that is they will leave space behind them to be exposed. That doesn't make them better but simply more willing to take risks.

Shots on goal are also not all that telling. Belgium was far more dangerous against England (before their 2nd goal) even if they didn't get too many shots on goal and fumbled many of their chances. That would be true even if England (I haven't checked) had more shots on goal that didn't much test Courtois but technically required that he catch the ball.

As for what you mentioned about a side that bunkers not being exposed as often in the back, the IMPECT measure looks at the net figures ultimately. Meaning if you bunker and don't allow an opponent more than say 10 situations where the opponent gets behind your defense, but aren't able to threaten the opposing side at all by getting behind their defense either because of the lack of numbers you commit upfront, you will still end up with a negative balance or net statistic.

All that said, as I explained earlier, the most telling stats are those that have the greatest correlation to the result that is achieved between two teams. If a side that has more possession wins 9/10 of the matches, then possession stats would be important. But when the actual figures show that teams with more possession are quite often on the losing end of the scoreboard, there is no real correlation established between possession and the result.

I don't know how well the IMPECT will do in the long run. But I certainly would add their stats on top of the slew of stats that clearly show less correlation and are frankly less telling.

 

Those are interesting stats too. But no particular statistics tell you everything. All of them tell you something and ultimately we each have our own sense who did better or worse.

 

Although I am not a Carlos Queiroz fan, and don't like our style that much, the rankings based on possession should tell you why possession isn't all that telling. Iran was clearly and indisputably not #32. Saudi Arabia even more clearly wasn't #4. Tunisia wasn't #13. And Spain and Germany were far from #1 and #2 respectively. If the game is decided by the scoreboard, and exceptions are meant as exceptions not the rule, you can't possibly find much correlation between the possession stats and how the teams did in this World Cup in terms of their results.

You need to find the statistical measure that has the closest correlation to the results.

 

The credit shouldn't go to me as much as the Carlos Queiroz fans who used the IMPECT statistics in response to his critics in Iran who used others which were far less flattering to Iran. They are the ones who basically introduced me to IMPECT but I was impressed by how close the R16 and quarterfinalists matched their top 10.

I am content with Iran being regarded anywhere between #17-#20 and that is how I would rate us.

 

Our possession stats are mostly because of strategy and tactics. I am sure of that. The best way to understand it is how Iran used to play South Korea and how we play them now. Before Queiroz, Iran's h2h record against South Korea was more or less even, but Iran would usually dominate possession and be the more aggressive side offensively. Under Queiroz, our h2h record against South Korea has been lopsidedly in our favor but in terms of possession, South Korea usually has more possession. But even with that greater possession, they would end up with 0 shots or chances against us (or 1-2 in S.Korea), while we would have plenty more. You can go and watch Iran-South Korea games from different eras and periods and see what I mean.

Or you can contrast how we began our game in World Cup 2006 against Mexico, dominating possession in the first half, to how we began our games against Nigeria and Morocco in World Cup 2014 and 2018. The tactics Queiroz prefers might actually work better for us, but they also influence both the kind of players he selects, the kind of players he leaves behind, and the kind of stats you find.