So I've been really bored and have put together a spreadsheet with some different stats to look at the Supporters Shield race and the playoff race. I had originally set the Eastern Conference teams needing 48 points for the playoffs and the Western Conference at 47 points. I may change that after this weekend though. If anyone sees that any of the numbers are incorrect, let me know. Code: Eastern Conference PPG Max Pts PPG of Last 7 PPG of Club Pts GP W L T PPG to 48 Possible RMNG Teams Last 7 PPG RMNG Teams Sporting KC 46 25 14 7 4 1.84 0.22 73 1.47 1.86 1.76 NY Red Bulls 44 25 13 7 5 1.76 0.44 71 1.46 1.86 1.46 Houston Dynamo 41 25 11 6 8 1.64 0.78 68 1.27 2.29 1.32 Chicago Fire 41 25 12 8 5 1.64 0.78 68 1.39 1.86 1.54 D.C. United 40 24 12 8 4 1.67 0.80 70 1.27 1.43 1.29 Montreal Impact 36 27 11 13 3 1.33 1.71 57 1.43 2.14 1.47 Columbus Crew 33 23 9 8 6 1.43 1.36 66 1.31 1.57 1.34 Philly Union 24 22 7 12 3 1.09 2.00 60 1.43 NE Revolution 23 24 6 13 5 0.96 2.50 53 0.29 Toronto FC 20 24 5 15 5 0.80 3.11 47 1.00 Code: Western Conference PPG Max Pts PPG of Last 7 PPG of Club Pts GP W L T PPG to 47 Possible RMNG Teams Last 7 PPG RMNG Teams SJ Earthquakes 47 25 14 6 5 1.88 0.00 74 1.17 1.57 1.10 Real Salt Lake 42 26 13 10 3 1.62 0.63 66 1.38 1.29 1.45 Sounders FC 40 24 11 6 7 1.67 0.70 70 1.29 2.00 1.24 Whitecaps FC 37 26 10 9 7 1.42 1.25 61 1.24 1.00 1.18 LA Galaxy 37 26 11 11 4 1.42 1.25 61 1.33 2.00 1.23 FC Dallas 32 27 8 11 8 1.19 2.14 53 1.53 1.86 1.49 Chivas USA 27 22 7 9 6 1.23 1.67 63 1.47 1.14 1.42 Colorado Rapids 26 25 8 15 2 1.04 2.33 53 0.57 Timbers 21 24 5 13 6 0.88 2.60 51 0.29 Some of the other things I put in here are combined average points per game of remaining opponents, points per game for each teams previous 7 games, and combined average points per game for remaining opponents previous 7 games. I didn't complete some of the categories for some of the teams that look like they are out of the race.
A couple of observations: If DC continues at the pace of their last 7 games(1.43 ppg), they will end at about 54 points. If Montreal wins out the rest of the season, they end at 57 points. Also Montreal's remaining opponents are averaging 1.43 ppg, while DC's are averaging 1.27 ppg. Montreal vs DC this weekend is huge. Meanwhile if Columbus continue at the pace of their previous 7 games(1.57) they will finish at about 50 points. With only 1 remaining game against each DC and Chicago, they're going to need to pick it up. In the west, if Vancouver doesn't turn it around and they keep going at their most current pace(1 ppg in last 7 games), they will end at 45 points. If FCD continue at their most current pace(1.86 ppg in last 7), they will also end at 45 points. What Vancouver has going for them though is the combined ppg of their remaining 7 opponents is 1.24, while FCD's is 1.53. Even though LA is even with Vancouver, their current pace is very good, but anything could happen. And although Chivas have a bunch of games in hand, their current form(1.14 ppg in last 7 games) is terrible. Even if they average their overall ppg(1.23), that will only put them at a little under 42 points. They also have a pretty difficult schedule coming up.
Nice work here. I'm sure others will chime in with additional comments and their own analysis/approach. One thing that might be worth tacking on to the right of you table for each team, especially as the season winds down, would be "remaining schedule" (i.e. for DC -- @MTL, NY, @RSL, NE, @PHI, CUSA, @POR, @TOR, CLB, @ CHI).
Great analysis, Thanks! I'd just make it PPG to 50 or 51 in the East. I don't think 48 points will get you a ticket to the playoffs unless Columbus, DC, and Chicago cool off and Montreal also can't keep up (although they could easily end right around this mark or just below). In terms of the DC - Montreal game, its big, but bigger for DC. Even if Montreal wins, they've played so many more games that I think DC or Columbus will likely beat them by the end of the year. But, I suppose, if they do win and Columbus loses as well, that at least gets them into the race. If they lose to DC, I don't see a way for them to pass DC.
Nice stuff. Thanks for posting it. We all have our favorite ways to look at things and I'm no different with my Schedule Adjusted Table (thread found in MLS:General). The Schedule adjusted table has, the last two years, accurately predicted the point total needed to make the playoffs early in the season. The teams change positions but the point offset doesn't change until the last week when it can go either way by a few points. Currently, it is showing a +1 in the East (52 points) and -2 (49 points) in the West. FCD is like MTL. Both of those teams have only 3 home games left with four road games. FCD needs to run the table to make the playoffs. MTL cannot afford to drop more than about 3 points. In both cases it is extremely improbable. VCW could swoon and make it easier on FCD and CHV. Another big question is finishing #3 or above because the path to the Cup is so much more improbable from #4 or #5. In the East the offset is at +5 (56 points) and in the West it is +4 (55 points).
Excellent thread all around. Good work to all posting here. I have to agree with DonJuego's sentiment that the point total needed to make the playoffs in the East will be higher than 50 points as things stand now. There is a pretty significant PPG gap right now between 5th and 6th.
Will the point total needed be greater than 50, or will the fifth place team finish with more than 50? As you point out, the gap between 5th and 6th is growing. To qualify a team only needs to finish ahead of the 6th place team.
5-6-7 all got closer today, at least in the East. The East could easily have 7 teams with 50+. I'm gonna unscientifically estimate 54 will be enough to get into the playoffs, potentially 53.
Updated rankings and stats after this past weekends games. I'll post my thoughts on the playoff race and Supporters Shield race later. Code: Eastern Conference PPG Needed Max Pts PPG of Last 7 PPG of Club Pts GP W L T PPG to 51 Possible RMNG Teams Last 7 PPG RMNG Teams Sporting KC 47 26 14 7 5 1.81 0.50 71 1.44 1.57 1.75 NY Red Bulls 45 26 13 7 6 1.73 0.75 69 1.40 1.86 1.27 Houston Dynamo 42 26 11 6 9 1.62 1.13 66 1.32 2.00 1.27 Chicago Fire 41 25 12 8 5 1.64 1.11 68 1.38 1.86 1.46 D.C. United 40 25 12 9 4 1.60 1.22 67 1.27 1.00 1.17 Montreal Impact 39 28 12 13 3 1.39 2.00 57 1.38 2.57 1.40 Columbus Crew 36 24 10 8 6 1.50 1.50 66 1.32 2.00 1.31 Philly Union 25 23 7 12 4 1.09 2.36 58 1.14 NE Revolution 23 25 6 14 5 0.92 3.11 50 0.29 Toronto FC 21 26 5 15 6 0.81 3.75 45 0.71 Code: Western Conference PPG Needed Max Pts PPG of Last 7 PPG of Club Pts GP W L T PPG to 48 Possible RMNG Teams Last 7 PPG RMNG Teams SJ Earthquakes 50 26 15 6 5 1.92 -0.25 74 1.20 1.86 1.27 Real Salt Lake 43 27 13 10 4 1.59 0.71 64 1.42 1.00 1.43 Sounders FC 43 25 12 6 7 1.72 0.56 70 1.31 2.29 1.33 LA Galaxy 40 27 12 11 4 1.48 1.14 61 1.34 2.00 1.14 Whitecaps FC 37 27 10 10 7 1.37 1.57 58 1.30 1.00 1.35 FC Dallas 32 28 8 12 8 1.14 2.67 50 1.55 1.86 1.50 Chivas USA 27 23 7 10 6 1.17 1.91 60 1.44 1.00 1.42 Colorado Rapids 26 26 8 16 2 1.00 2.75 50 0.57 Timbers 24 25 6 13 6 0.96 2.67 51 0.71
I've added remaining schedules to my spreadsheet, but it would have taken me a while to clean up the post to make it readable and I don't really have the time right now. I'll probably include them after this weekends games.
Even with Vancouver's loss, the west is starting to settle on it's top five. With LA's form lately they'll probably start to pull away and challenge for one of the top three spots. I could definitely see them catching RSL. They are averaging 2 ppg in their last seven games versus RSL's 1 ppg. Also, LA's remaining schedule is much easier with five out of their last seven games at home(RSL three out of seven) and the most recent form of their remaining opponents is much lower(1.14 over last seven games versus 1.43 for RSL). As far as that final playoff spot in the west goes, if FCD averages their most recent form(1.86 ppg last seven games) and Vancouver averages their's(1 ppg), FCD finishes with 43 points and Vancouver with 44 points. Even with four tough remaining games(Seattle, @LA, @FCD, and @RSL), with home games against Colorado, Chivas and Portland, I don't see Vancouver only getting 7 points from their last seven games. At worst I think 8 and at best 12. If Vancouver can settle in the middle at 10 points from their last seven games, that will put them at 47. If Chivas was playing even halfway decent they could really make things interesting. They would need to average 1.91 ppg to hit 48. Even with games in hand(four on Vancouver), I don't see them getting there. They are averaging 1.17 ppg over the season and 1 ppg in their last seven. Their remaining schedule is one of the toughest, with the average ppg of the their remaining opponents at 1.44 ppg(1.42 ppg over last seven games). Also seven out of their last eleven are on the road.
In the east, it's starting to get pretty tight. Only 6 points separate third through sixth. Even though Montreal's recent results are the best in the league(2.57 ppg over last seven), their schedule is really working against them. If they continue their current form they would finish with 54 points which would surely put them in the top five, but two out of their last six games are on the road and the form of their remaining opponents is pretty good(1.4 ppg over last seven) . Their next two games are huge, playing away to two teams that they are in direct competition with for a playoff spot(@CLB, @CHI). DC really needs to pick it up. They only need 1.22 ppg to finish with 51, but they are only at 1 ppg over their last seven. Even with that, I really think it's going to come down to DC and Columbus. DC's remaining schedule is fairly easy with a 1.27 ppg for their remaining opponents(1.17 ppg over last seven). Five out of their last nine games are away, but three of them are very winnable(@PHI, @POR, @TFC). Out of DC, Montreal, and Columbus, I'm starting to think the Crew have the best shot of grabbing that final spot. They need 1.5 ppg to get to 51, and they are at 1.5 ppg for the season and 2 ppg over their last seven. Their schedule isn't that bad either, with five away games and five home games and the average ppg for their remaining opponents at 1.32(1.31 ppg over last seven). They can gain on DC and put Montreal in a big hole with a home win against the Impact in their next game. Based on current form, I'm not sure if I see Chicago or Houston finishing below fourth. Their overall league form puts them finishing in the 55/56 point total with their most recent form putting them even higher. As far as the Supporters Shield goes, if San Jose doesn't win it, it would be a pretty big collapse. They are 3 points clear of the next closest team(SKC) and have one of the easiest schedules left(four home and four away), playing home and away with both Chivas and Portland, and playing away against Colorado. The average ppg of their final opponents is 1.2(1.27 over last seven). Their ppg is 1.91 which would put them at 65 points to finish. To match that, Sporting KC would need to average 2.25 ppg over their last 8 games and New York 2.5. Even if San Jose slump a little and average 1.5 ppg over their final 8 games, SKC and NY would still need to average right around 2 ppg to catch them.
Updated rankings and stats after last nights games. Code: Eastern Conference PPG Needed Max Pts PPG of Last 7 PPG of Club Pts GP W L T PPG to 51 Possible RMNG Teams Last 7 PPG RMNG Teams Sporting KC 47 26 14 7 5 1.81 0.50 71 1.43 1.57 1.63 NY Red Bulls 46 27 13 7 7 1.70 0.71 67 1.37 1.57 1.27 Houston Dynamo 42 26 11 6 9 1.62 1.13 66 1.30 2.00 1.18 Chicago Fire 41 25 12 8 5 1.64 1.11 68 1.38 1.86 1.41 D.C. United 41 26 12 9 5 1.58 1.25 65 1.21 1.14 1.07 Montreal Impact 39 28 12 13 3 1.39 2.00 57 1.39 2.57 1.43 Columbus Crew 39 25 11 8 6 1.56 1.33 66 1.34 2.00 1.30 Philly Union 25 24 7 13 4 1.04 2.60 55 0.71 NE Revolution 24 26 6 14 6 0.92 3.38 48 0.43 Toronto FC 21 26 5 15 6 0.81 3.75 45 0.71 Code: Western Conference PPG Needed Max Pts PPG of Last 7 PPG of Club Pts GP W L T PPG to 48 Possible RMNG Teams Last 7 PPG RMNG Teams SJ Earthquakes 50 26 15 6 5 1.92 -0.25 74 1.20 1.86 1.30 Real Salt Lake 43 27 13 10 4 1.59 0.71 64 1.41 1.00 1.47 Sounders FC 43 25 12 6 7 1.72 0.56 70 1.30 2.29 1.35 LA Galaxy 40 27 12 11 4 1.48 1.14 61 1.34 2.00 1.14 Whitecaps FC 37 27 10 10 7 1.37 1.57 58 1.29 1.00 1.37 FC Dallas 32 28 8 12 8 1.14 2.67 50 1.54 1.86 1.55 Chivas USA 28 24 7 10 7 1.17 2.00 58 1.50 1.14 1.54 Colorado Rapids 26 26 8 16 2 1.00 2.75 50 0.57 Timbers 24 25 6 13 6 0.96 2.67 51 0.71
The last few minutes of Philly-Columbus and New York-D.C. last night were huge. In that time a potential 6 point gap shrunk to a 2 point gap. The Crew's numbers are now very similar to D.C.'s, 1.58 ppg for D.C. versus 1.56 ppg for Columbus, and 1.25 ppg needed to 51 points for D.C. versus 1.33 ppg for Columbus. D.C. have an edge on the strength of their remaining schedule but Columbus is on much better form at the moment(2 ppg in last seven versus D.C.'s 1.14 ppg). I'm really looking forward to the final stretch in the east. Only 3 points separate third through seventh. Chivas really needed a win last night. Their next three are at San Jose, at Seattle, and home versus San Jose. I wouldn't be surprised if they came away with 0 points from those three. If they do lose all three, that would leave them needing 2.86 ppg over their last games to reach 48 points.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html This site has TFC already eliminated. But I'm pretty sure the following gives TFC a slim hope of qualifying possibly even in fourth in the East. Assume all Eastern teams lose all remaining games against the West. KC, Red Bulls, and Chicago win any intraconference games. Philly and New England lose all extraconference games and games to the top 3. TFC wins all remaining games to finish with 45 points and: Houston: Beat Impact (45 points) Columbus: Beat DC and lose to Impact 42 points Montreal: Lose to Houston, defeat Columbus 42 points DC United: Lose to Columbus (41 pts) New England currently has 48 points possible and plays New York and Chicago. So I've not factored them in yet. Philly has 55 points possible, but has enough losable matches not to be factored in. This even leaves Toronto the ability to drop points in a game. As a TFC fan, I like to watch us get kicked out of the playoffs every year .
Obviously, the first team likely to clinch mathematically is San Jose. A San Jose win on Sunday versus Chivas would leave San Jose with 53 points compared to Chivas's 28 (with Chivas having 55 available) also eliminating Portland, Colorado, and Dallas from any shot at first. So it would not theoretically clinch the spot for SJE.
Toronto now has only 42 possible points. However, there's still a chance if Houston wins today: Houston: Beat Impact, Beat Fire (48 points) Columbus: Beat DC, Beat Fire 48 points Chicago: Tie DC, Lose to Dynamo, Lose to Impact (42 points) Montreal: Lose to Houston, beat Chicago 42 points DC United: Lose to Columbus, Tie Chicago (42 pts) I think a tie offically knocks TFC out as then two of Chicago, Columbus, and DC would have to be able to reach 43 points (along with Houston). A Chicago win leaves a faint hope, however there's a slight change in who needs to win.
This is going to be the tightest race in the east ever, I think. Can anyone think of another year where there were this many teams in the hunt and nearly even on PPG going into the final stretch? Wild.
I don't see a race at all. At this point, San Jose would have to basically collapse not to win the Shield. In the case that they do collapse, I would be shocked if anyone other than Kansas City wins it. I don't see anyone else in play at the moment.
In terms of the playoffs in the east, only TFC, Philly, and New England are out of the playoff race, 7 teams are competing for 5 spots, but the Impact have used up a lot of their games, so 6 teams would be more likely, the race for the shield has San Jose and SKC at level points but with one more game played by SKC.