http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JA29Ak03.html France is opening a navy base in UAE. So some big boys playing game?
China will always be Iran’s ally but we our proud of our independent status and as a result we will protect our sovereignty in any circumstances. Arabs will always rely on Western nations to protect their interests but we don’t need any help from any nation. Not long ago, our country couldn’t even produce coke bottles without outside help. But because of our sacrifices on the Islamic Revolution we are producing everything and this shows we are independent and fit to take care of ourselves. Having a foreign base on Iranian land will serve no purpose; it will only hurt our image and make us look weak. We are not Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or Israel. Iran is the only true independent state of the Middle East .
The whole story/analysis is based on two faulty premises: First, it completely ignores Iran's ideological doctrine, or assumes certain level of desperation on behalf of Iran which is itself faulty based on the current events. Second, France is part of EU. If France, or better said Neocon's friend (Sarkozy), decides to put up a base it would have to have EU approval and then it would become EU's base which itself is against EU's policy of economic and political decoupling, and using soft power to gain influences. Militarilly speaking, with all the naval presence and land bases US has in the region, how is one more base from France going to change the formula?? And if it's another political chest-beating, again it would have to be within EU agreement which is contrary to EU's principles.
I totally agree with you and think maybe there is some fear mongering in West camp. In reality, it will be more like a Sino-Iran strategic partnership with military cooperation. I don't think a Navy base for China is possible, but I do think the joint-military operation excises in Persian Gulf and in lands of Iran are very possible. More frequently port calls too. It doesn't mean that Iran will lose its independent domestic and foreign policy. But in the reality, Iran needs China diplomatically just in UN, and also economically in financial system. For example, Iran has to move all its money to Shanghai and Hong Kong due to American led economic war.
I would think Iran should do all it can to wait for Bush/Cheney out of the stage. Not exactly against Iran's ideological doctrine, but as I said that even a small military joint excises with China will send a long signal. Such as anti-terror operations between both Navies. Or even better, get Pakistan aboard to do an excise from Gawdar to Hermuz. In this case, EU wants to be a major player in Mid East too. It foresees a power decline from US, and tries to fill the vacuum. In this case, EU is not exactly in bed with US and also has its own agenda. What agenda? Energy independence from Russia.
a base will never happen. it is forbidden to have a foreign military base according to the islamic republic law
While I am aware of the EU attempts to create collective defense, I do not think that precludes any sort of individual national military pushes, meaning France could go ahead with this if it desires. But there are enough intricacies to EU policy that I surely could have this wrong. China is looking to expand its global presence and be a player in international discussions and negotiations on a wide range of fronts (including much closer to the US - Haiti). It wouldn't surprise me much that they would want something permanent in Iran, though I can't see Iran wanting the same thing. But a formal exchange (and quasi-permanent posting) of observers is in the realm of possibilities.
Almost as much as America... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt In recent years, the debt has soared and inflation has stayed low in part because China has been willing to accumulate reserves denominated in U.S. Dollars. Currently, China holds over $1 trillion in dollar denominated assets (of which $330 billion are U.S. Treasury notes). In comparison, $1.4 trillion represents M1 or the "tight money supply" of U.S. Dollars which suggests that the value of the U.S. Dollar could change dramatically should China ever choose to divest itself of a large portion of those reserves.
Happy New Year, Andy. Party likes it's 4706! I'm leaving for China today and am grateful they still take our worthless paper. Too bad you Brits can't be so generous.
I think China is not trying to create a "us vs. them" league in Mid East. So far, China is able to keep good relationships with most of rivals, in this case, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are to be good friends of China, and hope China can use its influence on all three to create a multilateral framework that ensures the peace and progress of region. I am fully against any Chinese military presence in a confrontation manner in Mid East unless China's energy security is in the risk. But if in short time, if a Chinese base in Iran, or in Israel, can stop Mr. Vice President to do anything stupid, then be it. We need more diplomats in Mid East not more soldiers.
So far, Chinese energy imports went through 4 major sea routes and 80% of them went through Maracca. At 2003, US proposed through Singapore to give US the exclusive military right to monitor Maracca, and China objected through Malaysia and Indonesia (hard to imagine this with most Singaporeans are ethnic Chinese). The result is a joint-forces from three countries of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. China has three ways to reduce this choke point. First is the to build a pipeline from Gwadar of Pakistan to transport the oil to Northern China; Second one is to build a pipeline from Sittwi of Burma to transport to Southern China; 3rd one is to build a Chinese Panama Canal in Kra of Thailand. The first two are going well--no wonder why some forces want Pakistan and Burma be in trouble and China tries to maintain stability in both. The 3rd sees some of stalling due to Thasin's ouster (who is ethnic Chinese). But with Thasin's party winning now, it maybe back to schedule. Another way is to pay ransom to US Navy by giving some of market shares to Exxon which already happened. Getting more oils from Iran, Russia and Central Asia through land based transports. Switch to clean energies of water, wind and nuclear that will counts for about 16-20% of all energy. Also on Liquid Gas which is a better solution and Southeast Asia is the 4th largest in the world which is China's sphere of influence. One more important area is to work with US, Japan and EU to work for more efficient energy technology to reduce the demands on oil. Bottom line, China should use influence to reduce the conflicts and avoid an all out war in Mid East.