Pre-match: 6/12/26 9PM EST USA vs Paraguay: Game 1 of the big show

What a great story. Thanks for sharing it!

Most (or many) of the folks in this forum have grown up in an era when our players/teams were good enough to give us some amazing wins, but were not at a level of stardom they would have experienced in most of the rest of the world. So I imagine guys like Joe Max and Serginio are more happy than many sports stars to happily oblige their fans in public.

 

You mean “Edu”?

 

I entered the lottery thinking that if I got this game, I'd probably give them up or re-sell given the cost. But I did get this game and then changed my mind. I regret over-spending, but I think in the long run I'll regret it less than not going.

This is one of the subtle ways that you get some home cooking. CONMEBOL refs swallow the whistle, but FIFA assigned us a UEFA Elite ref from the Netherlands. There's reason to suspect he was picked on purpose, and that he's not going to take kindly to that way of playing.

 

One can hope.

 

Players I want to give inspiring speeches to US team before kickoff:

Eddie Johnson
Eddie Pope
Brian McBride
John O’Brien - he’s actually a sports psychologist.
Tony Sanneh
John Harkes
Ernie Stewart
Frankie Hejduk
Clint Mathis

 

One of the funny twists of history and something I've occasionally thought about is....

Would you trade the Howard/Jozy/Dempsey/Landon moment for Edu's goal being rightly called a goal? Would you trade that moment or that moment+ Dempsey's probably a goal goal vs Algeria for a better rested team for the Ghana game?

OTOH, I can tell you, I remember exactly what I did an hour before game start vs Ghana when I saw the lineup Bob chose for the Ghana game. I agreed to a hike, during the game because the second I saw how Bob was setting us up for Ghana I was absolutely positive our central midfield behind Bradley would cost us the game, more specifically going away from Edu for Ricardo Clark....I remember looking at the defensive set up, and CM, and thinking, "It's just not worth it to start a game this angry." Went on the hike, and sure enough, found out that we got blitzed right through that weak central point after the hike....

Funnily enough, nine years later I'd have EXACTLY the same feeling when Tab Ramos went away from his set up for the shock upset of France in the Round of '16, starting meekly defending Chris Durkin and Mendez centrally against Ecuador, and sure enough, they would be the weak point that Ecuador would exploit for their opener in their 2-1 win.

It's rare that I'm that convinced of something, and normally I'm probably wrong lol, but in those situations I was positive it was an absolutely horrific unforced error that would cost us, and pretty bitter that I ended up being right both times.

 

Oh, btw, I forgot one other detail lol. My wife shushed me when I was celebrating Landon's goal. If you remember it was early in the morning, and back then we were dating and in an apartment complex where some old people lived a few houses down. I lost my mind and was screaming, and my girlfriend was pissed I was so loud and shushed me hard, and I was, lets just say, quite bitter about her lack of history as a sports fan in that moment to understand what was happening (one of the two greatest moments in 20 years of watching the USMNT, and at this point, 35 years) and why shushing me was insane....Too bad I didn't have a live stream feed of like NY city bars celebrating for her to get what was happening lol.

 

i threw a bottle of tums at the tv when agoos scored in the portugal game in 2002.....my wife was expecting at the time. now i have a 23 year old daughter who gives me headaches....

 

From your keyboard to God's eyes!

 

First, enjoy the match, and remember to file your BS report before you go to bed. Thanks in advance!

I think we need to be careful ourselves (with a better/tighter referee), as we have a few players of our own who need to master their emotions and control their behavior.

 

I would not regret overspending; that's not the issue. It's just every time I think about it, I lack energy in large part because of the principle of it. I just really got turned off by the money grab and it's not simply rational; it's basically killed the energy.

I absolutely envy you your tickets and excitement to go!

We will get home field advantage from crowds and other sources, but I really, really doubt there's any ref in the World right now going to give us home cooking on that account.

Especially after we kept one of their brethren from entering the country and realizing his dream (and making a shitload of cash).

 

I don't think any FIFA ref is going to give "home cooking" anyway--they are evaluated each game, and how they are evaluated determines whether they get further and better games. Every FIFA ref there is going to be focussed on getting calls right and doing a good job. That said, I would not be surprised if FIFA did put thought into the ref for this game. Not to favor the US, but because it would be bad for the cup if a host's initial game became a s*** show. A solid UEFA ref was both my hope and expectation for this game.

 

We don't need a home cooking ref. All we need is one who actually calls the game correctly and doesnt' allow CONCACFERY (same with CONMEBOL).

 

Highlights from Paraguay's most impressive away result in qualifying (2-2 in Colombia). All I can say is thank goodness Enciso isn't playing against us. He would give our defenders fits.

 

I don't think so. With this format, not all 3rd place teams will advance, and since many other groups have that 'minnow' team, I do not think that finishing with 3 pts total and a zero GD will advance. Honestly believe the US needs to have at least 4 pts to advance.

 

He is very good but he also did play in our win over them.

 

Home cooking is probably the wrong term. I don't expect what Korea got. But two things I believe are a) FIFA knows who the good refs are and b) they are not assigned at random. So I don't expect, as @ifsteve put it, CONCACAF/CONMEBOLery.

 

The simulations I'm seeing give the US a 75% chance to advance when finishing 3rd. Maybe they are wrong, but that's what they show.

I'm not able to sim the entire tournament right now, but I have built the group. Here is a point distribution of our 3rd place finishes:

1 - 3%
2 - 13%
3 - 39%
4 - 41%
5 - 0.4%
6 - 3%

If we assume (for simplicity) that 4+ points is guaranteed to advance, that's only 44%. If we further assume that 2 or less is never advancing, that leaves the 3 point finishes. In order to get to 75% total advancement, it implies that when the USA finishes 3rd on 3 points, we advance 79% of the time. Could be wrong, but that what the math says.

 

I think the gut logic is that only 67% of third place teams get through and some of the other groups will have punching bags that allow for goal differential exploitation.

On the other hand, no one is our group is likely to beat us 4-0 (knock on wood) so perhaps there's less creampuffs than we think via the models.

 

I have a couple 2nd Gen Turkish friends and they expect to win the group easily.