Pre-match: 6/12/26 9PM EST USA vs Paraguay: Game 1 of the big show

The US goes for it and Paraguay plays for the tie.

 

Peacock is a standalone streaming service. They don't have a channel on your cable or directv or youtubeTV.

I think they have the Spanish language streaming rights so would be showing the Univision/Telemundo feed (which is what you'd find on cable or streaming "television.")

But if you want to watch ALL the games on a standalone app, you either go Fox One (English) or Peacock (Spanish).

But yeah, most games are going to be on Big Fox or Fox Sports, I assume.

 

You can move Dest back to RB and bring in an attacker for Freeman (or one of the other CBs). Probably Zendejas or Weah. But Reyna, Aaronson or even Arfsten work as well.

Arfsten for Jedi adds offense (spectacular one timers notwithstanding).

Pulling Adams and having Wes/Tillman in CM and adding another attacker is also an option..

But Pepi, Weah, & Reyna seen like the top 3 choices to me. Then Arfsten, Aaronson, Zendejas, & Berhalter in the next tier. Then Wright.

If we need pace or physicality, then Weah or Pepi. Unlocking a low block is more Reyna, Arfsten, Berhalter, or Zendejas. Aaronson & Berhalter are your energy guys. Wright is rolling the dice real late and playing with 2 strikers.

 

According to info from Wikipedia he's got a good bit of high-level reffing, including most recently the Champions League semifinal between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal:


He took charge of the final of the 2012 UEFA European Under-19 Football Championship as a UEFA Elite referee.[2] On 18 August 2020, UEFA named 37-years old Makkelie as the referee for the 2020 UEFA Europa League Final between Sevilla and Inter Milan.[3] Previously, he was an additional assistant referee in the 2018 UEFA Europa League Final. He also refereed the semifinal between Brazil's Palmeiras and Mexico's UANL in the 2020 FIFA Club World Cup in Qatar.[4] Makkelie was selected as a referee for the UEFA Euro 2020, where he was in charge of two group stage matches, the R16 clash between England and Germany and the Wembley semi-final between England and Denmark. Makkelie was also present as a referee during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in which he was the referee for two group stage matches.

In April 2024, Makkelie was selected to officiate at UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany.[5]

In April 29, 2026, he officiated the semifinal game of the UEFA Champions League, between Athletico Madrid and Arsenal in Madrid.


Controversially, he also did this:


Makkelie also officiated the match between Italy and Croatia in the group stage of Euro 2024, in which he controversially added 8 minutes of injury time to the end of the match. This allowed Italy to equalize 1-1 in the 98th minute. The 8-minute addition seemingly went directly against UEFA referee chairman Roberto Rosetti's mandate before EURO 2024: "We have asked the referees to speed up the game." According to some, there were no major delays that justified the length of added time.[9] Makkelie was subsequently removed from UEFA competitions.[10] [11] [12] [13] Subsequently, Makkelie also awarded 6 yellow cards to Croatia team, while Italy team got 0 yellow cards until the 90th minute. [14]

 

The replay of the USWNT Brazil is available. But it is the Telemundo/Spanish feed.

 

Prediction time:

Most likely goal scorers: Balogun or Dest.

Most likely to get assist: Pulisic or Jedi.

Most likely to make a bad mistake: Ream or Adams.

Most likely to get yellow-card: Adams.

Most likely to be subbed off first: Malik Tilman or Balogun.

Most likely first sub in: Brendan or Gio.

Most surprising player to see less than 10 minutes of field time: Weah.

 

Okay, I didn't think he was asking about a Spanish broadcast when he was asking about Peacock.

But you are right, they provide some broadcasts in Spanish, because if I recall correctly, I watched some of the US games at the U 20 World Cup on Peacock, and they only provided them in Spanish, and I couldn't find them anywhere else.

 

Peacock is NBC -- so they aren't going to have Fox-owned broadcasts, not when Fox has their own. It's going to be the Spanish Feed. I think it's only there because the Spanish language channels don't have a streaming app of their own, perhaps, so they sold it?

Same with the friendlies -- HBO/Turner/Warner didn't buy the Spanish Language rights so the Spanish is on Peacock.

 

im not into gambling- like, dont understand over/under not into gambling- but i bet people like gambling with you.

...no pun intended.

 

Yes, obviously, but what I meant was that you probably wouldn't choose sub on Weah for tactical reasons to get a goal against Paraguay or Australia. If you did, it would be for fitness reasons.

If we're up a goal or two, then it's a move that you well might make for tactical reasons.

 

As we all know, soccer is hard to predict because in any single game the correlation between the teams’ quality of play and the game’s score is weaker than in most other sports.

That said, if we’re just talking about points and not how well we play, if the US manages to get 5 points from this group, I’ll think we’ll have done a pretty darn good job.

6 or more points would be friggin’ great. And, as you say, far from guaranteed.

 

Way to represent our humble forum!!

 

guess i'll be watching most games in spanish...just like 94, before i even had cable. watched some games in italian too. all i have is streaming now and i am not paying fox one red dime. if you have an antenna, you can get spanish feeds and some of the fox games in english.

 

Don't know if this has been posted here yet. Bruce, Bradley and Berhalter talking about the Paraguay game with either their preferred or predicted lineups (a bit unclear about that).

Bradley clearly comes off as the most knowledgeable, Bruce as the most out of touch, Berhalter trying to protect his legacy*. To be fair Bradley is not coaching a team right now, so he has a lot more time on his hands. It's a bit fluid but I think the best way to represent what we've been playing is 3 in the back. Only Bradley represented our lineup that way. Bruce didn't even mention Richards. He's the obvious choice for center CB if he can go. Bruce also made a comment that indicated that he's not confident in Freese.

* As for Berhalter and trying to protect his legacy, after Bradley went on a long comment about how Poch's teams are physical, Berhalter jumped in and talked about how physical we were against England in the last WC - and that was just about how much we ran. I don't think Bob's comment was just about running. But clearly Berhalter didn't like the comment about Poch having the team playing physical because it implies that that gives us something we were missing before.

Berhalter also lobbied for Dest in the back and Weah at winger, Freeman on the bench. That's the setup Berhalter had, but Poch is not doing that. It's more of back 3 with Freeman as a kind of hybrid RCB / RB. Bradley is also right on the money when he said that Dest is a better option at RW / RWB than Weah specifically against Paraguay because they're going to be packed in, and Weah's speed is therefore more or less neutralized. Dest is much more technical and creative in tight spaces.

 

Sure, I am expecting that

 

hmm, I wonder why Klinsi was excluded from this former coaches panel. I can only imagine his starting lineup would have featured Jermaine Jones, Brad Davis, and John Brooks.

 

If Chris Richards' health situation is such that Mauricio Pochettino should not start him against Paraguay, here is the line-up I think Pochettino should start:

4-2-3-1
------------------------------------------Freese--------------------------------

Freeman----------McKenzie (or Trusty)-----------Ream---------A.Robinson

--------------------------------Berhalter-------------Adams---------------------

Dest--------------------------------------McKennie---------------------Pulisic

---------------------------------------------Balogun-----------------------------------

1. Goalkeeper

Whether Pochettino should start Matt Freese or Matt Turner is a hard decision for me. On Germany's first goal, Freese should have come farther—and quickly—off his line. If he had done so, he likely would have been able to catch the ball or punch it away, which I think Turner would have done had he been in instead of Freese. Turner has good judgment about when to come off his line, and he’s quick at doing so.

In addition, on Germany's goal, in the wall that Freese set up, perhaps he should have had three—rather than four—players in it. It would have enabled the US to have one additional defender in the box to mark Germany’s runners.

In addition, this season in MLS, Turner has better goalkeeping statistics than Freese. For instance, Turner has a higher save percentage (76.9 versus 70.4), fewer goals conceded (18 versus 21) and more goals prevented (6.0 versus .5). Turner also has considerably more international experience (55 caps versus 15) and has already played in a World Cup.

However, at a feelings level, I feel more comfortable starting Freese. From December 2021 until August 2025, Turner did not play that regularly at the club level. In addition, in the US friendly against Belgium in March, I remember Turner not looking that good. I remember thinking that Freese might have saved some of Belgium’s goals. Also, I think Freese has been better than Turner at playing the ball with his feet. So, I would probably start Freese against Paraguay.

But a friend of mine who has good judgment about soccer thinks that Pochettino should start Turner. And, at a purely intellectual level, I can see a strong case for Turner. Freese not coming off his line against Germany is a major reason. I don’t see Turner having made that same mistake. But I’m going to go with my feelings here. They have a solid track record.


2. 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1?

For the June 6 friendly against Germany, Pochettino started the US in a 4-2-3-1. Here was what I think was the US's starting line-up and formation for that match:

https://www.fotmob.com/matches/usa-vs-germany/1xjgfc#5084645:tab=lineup

Moreover, against Senegal, Pochettino started the US in a 3-4-2-1 (not a 4-2-3-1). Here was the line-up and formation against Senegal:

https://www.fotmob.com/matches/senegal-vs-usa/1f5mor#5098971

So, the US beat Senegal when starting in a 3-4-2-1 and lost to Germany when starting in a 4-2-3-1. Moreover, when Pochettino has started the US in a 3-4-2-1 (rather than in a 4-2-3-1 or any other formation), the US’s record is 5 wins, 0 losses and 1 draw. He started the US in a 3-4-2-1 against Japan, Ecuador, Australia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Senegal. Here was the US’s starting line-up in the November 2025 friendly against Paraguay:

https://www.espn.com/soccer/lineups/_/gameId/758376

The US’s winning-percentage in those games was .888 (I count draws as .333 points). In contrast, when Pochettino has started the US in anything other than a 3-4-2-1, the US’s record is 10 wins, 10 losses and 0 draws, for a winning percentage of .500. So, I can see a case that it would be a good idea for Pochettino to start in a 3-4-2-1 against Paraguay.

However, especially if Richards does not start against Paraguay, I’m uneasy with the idea of Pochettino starting with only three players in the back against Paraguay. I think it would be a lot to ask of Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty or Tim Ream to start against Senegal as the most central of three center-backs against Paraguay in a 3-4-2-1. First, Trusty has only 8 caps. Moreover, neither McKenzie nor Ream is super athletic. So, Pochettino’s starting four in the back against Paraguay might be a little safer.

Also, the US started in a 4-2-3-1 against Germany without Richards, and the US played well in the match against a world soccer power. So, perhaps Pochettino should stick with what has just worked reasonably well against the team that Elo ranks as the 10th best in the world (https://eloratings.net/) and Nate Silver ranks as the 6th best (https://www.natesilver.net/p/pele-international-football-rankings-soccer-ratings-projections).

However, if Richards is healthy enough that Pochettino should start him, should Pochettino then start the team in a 3-4-2-1? Even if Richards is healthy enough to start, I still feel like Pochettino should start the team in a 4-2-3-1. I want more solidity and numbers in defense. I feel like we have enough quality in the attack to score some goals against Paraguay. So, if we can be good enough defensively, I think we can win the match. And I have more confidence in our defense with 4 players in the back than with only 3. In a 4-player backline, there are four designated defenders. In a 3-player backline, there are only three.

It should be noted, however, that a 3-player backline can be more defensive than a 4-player backline. In the former, the wingbacks can stay back, so that the team is essentially playing a 5-4-1. Still, for a 3-4-2-1 to work well, the wing-backs have to consistently make good decisions about whether to go forward or stay back. They don’t have much margin for error. In contrast, with a 4-player backline, the outside backs don’t have to be as outstanding with their defensive positioning in order for the team to win. They have one more player back there to cover for them if they get caught too far forward.


3. Center-Back

It’s important for Chris Richards to be frank with the staff and himself about how healthy and fit he is. It’s important that the US not put any injured or unfit players on the field against Paraguay. Also, if he were to play against Paraguay and not be 100 percent, he could aggravate his injury so that we would not have him for the rest of the tournament.

If Richards should not start, it’s hard for me to decide whether Pochettino should start McKenzie or Trusty. McKenzie has significantly more international experience than Trusty. The former has 29 caps with many starts, whereas the latter has only 8 caps with (I believe) just 3 starts. However, Trusty is more athletic and taller than McKenzie. I can’t decide between the two right now. My head says Trusty; my feelings say McKenzie.


4. Berhalter

I would start Sebastian Berhalter as the defensive-midfielder next to Tyler Adams, with Weston McKennie at attacking center-mid. In a 4-2-3-1, I believe that gives the US the best possible combination in central midfield. Berhalter is a better defender than McKennie and Malik Tillman. He’s better both in terms of his defensive positioning and his ball-winning. In addition, when Weston McKennie has played as a defensive midfielder, he has been prone to giving the ball away in bad spots. Moreover, Tillman hasn’t made much of an impression on me as a defender. For instance, he doesn’t have the relentless and intense commitment to defense that Berhalter does. Finally, although Tillman was okay against Germany, he didn’t stand out. And he has sometimes failed to stand out for the US.

Although McKennie may be better as a box-to-box midfielder than as an attacking center-mid, I think that, against Paraguay, starting him at attacking center-mid in a 4-2-3-1, with Adams and Berhalter at defensive-midfield, gives the US its best chance to win the match. McKennie is good at scoring and creating goals. So, I want him closer to goal. Also, I'm uneasy starting Tillman. Sometimes he's just been too quiet.


5. Dest

Against Germany, Sergiño Dest was good at right midfield. And he provides the US with another player capable of creating and scoring goals. Moreover, against Senegal, he scored a nice goal as a wing-back in a 3-4-2-1. So, even though his best position may be right back in a 4-player backline, I’m comfortable starting him closer to goal.


6. Balogun or Pepi?

Against Paraguay, I would start Folarin Balogun over Ricardo Pepi. Balogun is faster, and he has tended to be goal-dangerous for the US over the last couple years. In addition, since November 2024, Pepi has played only four matches for the US, namely against Paraguay, Belgium, Senegal and Germany. His only start was against Senegal. In contrast, over that same period of time, I believe Balogun has played 10 matches for the US, with 5 starts, 4 goals and 1 assist. So, between Balogun and Pepi, the former has been the more productive over the last couple years.

 

We should. And then have 90 minutes to pull a win against outsider Australia. High probability of Turkey winning both first games and playing second team against us. D-W-D would get us the second which is probably better than the first.

 

I know sharps love that kind of data with enough sample size, but I do kinda feel like its pretty easy to explain away:

2022: We played Wales and England. We should've beaten Wales, but choked (like the whole World Cup we always gassed out in the second half, surrendering a stupid penalty they made), England was a draw, that's actually a good result.

2023: We lost to Serbia in cupcake who cares, Germany swamped us 3-1.

2024: We lost to Slovenia in Cupcake, who cares,

2025: Turkey and Switzerland beat our Gold Cup backups and some starts team collective 6-1, that's actually alarming in terms of our depth (and how many freaking guys made the team from that roster except for the second best attacker, lol, Luna),

2026: The Belgium and Portugal beat downs were brutal, in a similar way, I think 7-2 collectively?

So the context is what matters, we were fine in '22, the results were actually good other than the choke against Wales. The two cupcake loses in '23 and '24 are totally irrelevant, but the Germany beat down, and the 4 friendlies in '25 and '26 are context that matters. We got curb stomped in 4 of those 5 games. So yeah, the only bit of the data that bothers me would be the June '25 friendlies and the March '25 friendlies, but the good news w/those results would be that the friendlies a year ago featured exactly 1 starting attacker that's relevant (Tillman), more alarming is that elements of the entire backline was actually involved, the Swiss match was more of the same, no attacking relevance whatsoever, the defense, thankfully, was not particularly relevant (Arf, McKenzie, Zim, and Harriel).....


So I don't know. We always here these kinds of streaks, but it does matter that we barely ever play UEFA sides because of qualifying and Nations League requirements and so the material importance of the results and interrelatedness is totally open to question. For us, the only results that really matter are the last 5, all of which were lost, and the context within: experimented with backups and non-entities other than the D versus Turkey, and we got sandblasted by them and Switzerland, Belgium and Portugal were much more alarming, I'll leave the interpretation of those games to you guys, though it sounds like he experimented and the games got out of hand in particular after the mass sub ins, the German game was actually a strong performance in a lot of ways so......

Turkey bothers me mostly because they are playing like a top 8-10 team in UEFA at this point. ELO has them 9th, which makes them in reality, probably a top 11-13 team in the world. Their performance in the Euro's was kind of erratic, but they did make the quarters which is a credit to them. They were good in WCQ, but ugly against Kosovo (Kosovo definitely could have won that playoff, xG says that game was largely even: 1.2-1), I don't know how to weight what they did in Nations League (split with Montenegro home and away, beat Iceland home and away, and tied Wales home and away to finish in 2nd place).......

So? I don't know. Since we're at home, and unlike last June, we will be rolling out most and possibly all of our first XI, and as such, it should probably be a draw, with us winning more likely than us losing.....

We'll see. The big problem we have is we seem highly tied in to knockout matches with UEFA and Conmebol for that situation going forward....the knockouts look like they do not have a friendly option for a 2nd or 1st place side out of D, the friendly paths to the quarters potentially are elsewhere.....

 

Dempsey vs Ghana, O'Brien vs Portugal, Mathis vs South Korea basically.....

 

We played w/ 3 in the back in both games... there was a window in the Germany games of about 5-7 minutes where th4e injury/cramp to Jedi forced us to 4 ATB and what resulted was absolutely atrocious on-the-ball... e.g. pass the ball from FB to FB around the back until one of said FBs gets pushed too tight to the sideline and has to boot it off the opposing player or to no one forward in particular. It is my main gripe w/ 4 ATB in possession when you can't fully trust the 2 CBs to be both good-on-the-ball and superior from a defensive/athletic perspective. The passing angles from the CBs are different and more difficult down-field. With 3 ATB in possession it's easier to skip the center CB to get from one side to the next and the center CB can often pass it straight to the WBs on the edge. Their are also easier passing lanes forward for the outside CBs. But my preference aside... under Poch, our ability to maintain possession and break lines from the back has been night-and-day better w/ 3 ATB... whether that be with 3 CBs or with the FB-hybrid.

 

I'm fascinated by the ticket situation for this match. Get in prices have come way down and there are still a lot of tickets to clear. Is there going to be true price discovery on the resale market in the next 48-72 hours or does FIFA rather give them away to groups in chunks and not face a ton of angry fans who paid 4X clearing market rate.

You'd think FIFA will just simply take the extra revenue (either on their marketplace or on resale) -- I think they're holding a good % of the leftover tickets vs professional resellers who didn't love the initial price (given their ability to make profit was seriously dented). The reason why I think that's the case is if you look for 6 tickets together on resale (which is often a sign of professional touts) you see way less of that than for the US Australia game.

Just some idle thoughts, I'm by no means an expert but am eagerly awaiting what will happen in the lead-into the game.

 

Thank you for the break down. Hope we roast Turkiye.

 

One other thing about the open practice. Where we were in line, Joe-Max Moore was standing next to the line doing an interview (he spent much of his youth in Irvine). He talked to us fans in the most humble way. Such a nice guy. The friend I was with was making chitchat and mentioned that Seb Berhalter had gone to her school. Moore: "My son played with him in club!" Like, Joe-Max Moore was trying to find common ground with my school teacher friend. Nicest guy you could imagine. On that note, I recently ran into Klejstan at a local cafe. Told him I was a big fan and used to watch his matches in Belgium. He was very friendly and down to earth.

 

Fox Sports World on the old G5 to G9 satellite was amazing...