Pre-match: 6/12/26 9PM EST USA vs Paraguay: Game 1 of the big show

Traditionally hosting is a big advantage.

Yet somehow the narrative with the US is it is a disadvantage…

People are just negative tbh.

 

We won the Group that year and had a pretty favorable QF (Uruguay) if we'd have beaten Ghana. We got the the Final of Confed Cup (beating Italy and Spain) and had a 2-0 halftime lead on Brazil.

The 2002 and 2010 teams were the best in my lifetime in terms of WC I have seen (everything after 1950). If Davies & Jones are healthy, I think we are SF bound.

 

There are very few walks in the park at the World Cup.
Of course, Paraguay is going to be a tough contest.
Just like Wales and Iran were in 2022.
Both, by the way, ranked way higher than Paraguay is right now.
[In FIFA rankings anyway.]

The last time we played Paraguay in a game that mattered was also at home.
2016 Copa America under Klinsmann.
Hard-fought 1-0 win.

 

Not really. Ream is a special level of immobility.

 

Since they so badly diluted the field, I have issue with your opening statement.

 

Watch out for Cape Verde they're no walk in the park... what mighty team could possibly beat Jamiro Monteiro and CJ Dos Santos

 

and yet Germany could not exploit Ream. To what do you attribute that?

 

Referee assignment:

United States : Paraguay - MAKKELIE (NED)

 

I was there! Weren't you the guy with the 'I LOVE ALEXI!' shirt?

 

ChatGPT response:

For USA–Paraguay, I think Makkelie is about as good a draw as the U.S. could get.

A few things I'd expect:

• The game should flow. He generally doesn't whistle every little contact and is comfortable with physical play as long as it doesn't become reckless. His long-term card rate is roughly 3–3.5 yellows per match, which is moderate by international standards.
• He's not intimidated by gamesmanship. South American teams often test referees with tactical fouls, surrounding the referee, and managing the tempo. Makkelie has seen everything in the Champions League, Euros, and World Cups.
• He will make big calls. If there's a penalty, DOGSO, or VAR intervention, he tends to make a decision rather than avoid controversy. That's been a hallmark of his career.

From a tactical perspective, I actually think this slightly favors the current USMNT:

• Adams, McKennie, Richards, and Robinson generally benefit when the match is allowed to be physical.
• Paraguay traditionally likes duels, fouls, and disrupting rhythm. A referee who isn't easily manipulated can take away some of that edge.
• If Pochettino wants an aggressive press, Makkelie is unlikely to stop play repeatedly for minor contact.

The one thing I'd watch is set-piece wrestling. Makkelie is willing to award penalties and has a relatively healthy penalty rate compared with many elite refs. If either team gets grabby in the box, he won't ignore it.

If I were handicapping the match strictly on the referee assignment, I'd call it:

• Slight positive for the U.S.
• Slight negative for excessive Paraguay shithousery.
• Neutral on cards (I wouldn't automatically bet over cards just because of the referee).

 

To put a finer point on that, let me present the Complete History of multi-goal wins by the USMNT at the World Cup:

1930: Group: 3-0 over Belgium
1930: Group: 3-0 over Paraguay
2002: Rd16, 2-0 over Mexico

That is the list. One in the last 95 years. Let me know if I missed one.

 

32 --> 48

 

Not me. I was there with a German exchange student.

 

Paraguay finished 6th. They'd have been in the IC POs undercthe old format. And likely they anyway, though not guaranteed.

Australia is hard to tell with a different format. They finished 2nd in their group but 5th on Pts of the 6 direct qualifiers. But were in the toughest group on paper with Japan & Saudi Arabia. 5th would also be IC POs.

Turkey is the toughest foe in group and they are the ones who arguable snuck in under the new format with UEFA getting extra spots. Though the groups would have been different, of course.

 

My general experience with Peacock is weird. On some games, it won't let you rewind at all if the game has started (or start behind). Then sometimes it takes a few hours to show up.

The games have generally been accessible for a while, but that really depends on the contract with FIFA.

So, yeah, I'm not super helpful here. I don't think it's a tech issue so much as a contractual issue.

 

I agree in general and also specific on this team. Playing for low scoring ties is largely asking for it for our tendency to make mistakes and let up at the ends of halves. We may still need to do that against very good teams, but we should be trying to go 2-0 up on our first two games for safety if we end up scoring first.

 

I think they will largely play for the counter. It will only be situational to see more than three or four attackers streaking forward, I think, especially if Enciso is out.

Obviously, if they are down late, or down 2-0, it changes. But I would have to think the smart money, if I'm the other manager, is to be patient. We're a team prone to dumb defensive mistakes -- I'd take my time and frustrate the US, looking for an error, and only try to force it when the clock makes me.

 

I hear you. Good thing Wes in particular is a team player. If I were Poch, I'd be pencilling in Wes to start the game against Turkey and letting him know that.

 

I don't even think it'd be Wes that is an issue. I think it would just rattle the team a bit.

 

It was a friendly. Teams don't game plan for friendlies like they do for competitive matches.

 

I agree with this. If I’m coaching against this team, I’m waiting to pounce on one of our inevitable boneheaded plays.

i do find the confidence people have to be interesting. We have won 6 games total in World Cups since 1990. Winning 2 games, even with the watered down groups, would be a massive achievement. It’s highly likely we tie one of Paraguay or Australia.

 

the thing about Aus is they hate the US with an Iranian/Mexican-like passion. I mean hate.

 

I heard on a podcast that the only European opponent we've beaten under Poch or Berhalter was N. Ireland. Turkiye is going to be a tough draw.

 

I think it’s funny because get exercised about this.

Like, we’re not as good as Portugal/Germany/Belgium..they are some of the best teams in the world.. not sure why people expect us to beat them.

Then with Switzerland and Turkey last summer it was a pathetic squad… with maybe 2 starters from the Switzerland game starting in the WC.

 

Two most important things in this game will be defensive transitions and offensive corners.

Looks like Poch is practicing with the starting 11 we all expect. My question is if the game is tied in the 60th minute who comes on to find a goal? Reyna? Pepi? Berhalter? Weah?