Pre-match: 6/12/26 9PM EST USA vs Paraguay: Game 1 of the big show

Yeah my feeling precisely.

 

I will feel a hell of a lot more comfortable leading 1-0 than losing 1-0.

 

Does Peacock allow you to record a game and watch at leisure? (I use Hulu and it seems to have some odd blocks on recording sports sometimes—I’ve sometimes started a game late and found it turns off my recording when the broadcast window ends. So pondering getting peacock between now and Friday just for the cup. Any advice?)

 

Man. Paraguay only conceded 10 goals in qualifying in CONMEBOL. That is a world-beating defensive performance. Has me depressed already. Game has a 0-0 draw written all over it.

No way you can concede that few goals in CONMEBOL and not break both pulisic's ankles in the first half and be next-level at time wasting.

 

Yeah, my many years as a soccer fan says it's really tough to win if you don't score, even if you have a great defense, let alone a mediocre one as we do.

I'm not sure I'd want to rely on 3 0-0 ties to grab a possible third-place advancement in this tournament…

 

You're right to feel that way about Paraguay. I think people are severely underestimating the quality of Paraguay and our World Cup group as a whole. Should we advance out of it? Sure. But should we win it? Man, I just don't know that. The first two games are likely going to be very ugly and boring, where 1 or 2 moments decide the winner.

Gun to my head, we draw Paraguay, beat Australia, and it all comes down to the Turkey game for who wins the group.

 

Paraguay also don’t score any goals.

And arguably their best attacker just got injured and will miss the USA game.

Also, we played pretty much their first XI in November and were clearly the much better side.

Yall are afraid of your own shadows.

 

I would also note, other than an idiotic red card inflicted defeat, if we can't get at least 4 points out of our first 2 games, we deserve last place anyway, and I really dgaf at that point.

Also an important an interesting detail that just popped into my head. I believe we were red carded three times between June '23 NL and June '24 Copa America, under Poch, zero. That's helpful.

 

Remember when almost lost to Slovenia in 2010, and almost didn't score against Algeria the same year? This group could be sneaky good like that group.

 

Home field and coming off 2 confidence boosting performances, I feel our offense will find at least 1 goal. Don't think Paraguay can sit back and absorb 90 minutes of us coming at them and get away with a 0-0 tie.
Unlike just 5 years ago, we have lots of guys who have the confidence to go at goal and try shit, Pulisic, Flo, Dest, McKennie, Pepe, Berhalter, and even Freeman have shown they'll attack when they see an opportunity.

 

Honestly if we draw the first two games I'll be relatively happy. Will still give us a chance to advance in last game with a draw or win.

 

I'd rather see us going out and being "brave" and trying to impose our will on the other team and end up going out of the tournament earlier than we'd want then being conservative and going for ties and such. We're really only talking about 1 additional game, 4 or 5 this tournament. I think looking back the place we finish won't matter as much as how we tried to play. Would rather push forward and attack and get caught on the counter then sit 10 behind the ball and what not. Round of 32 or round of 16 won't matter as much as how we attempted to play.
That's my view.

 

Hope so. I think our team does have tremendous upside. I think we have about a 60% chance of scoring vs. Paraguay, but anything could happen. I also think the game will be decided in 1-2 key moments. An early goal would be absolutely great for confidence-building for the tournament.

 

I didn't say we'd lose. I watched the highlights of that game and Paraguay was pressing way higher up the field that I remembered. I doubt they do that again after being burned in the friendly. Paraguay isn't going to try to keep the game 0-0. They are going to count on hitting us on a goal similar to the one they got against us last time. Game is likely to be 1-1 or 2-1 IMO.

 

I think there is a big difference between "underestimating" Paraguay and an honest assessment that this is a match we should win.

Score in the first 30 minutes and the complexion of the game changes immensely . Paraguay and Australia both think they can advance. And there,s a good chance that one of them does for sure. But both those teams also know that they need to win the head to head match and may also need a point in their matches between the US and Turkiye.

Australia has a fair advantage here since their match is the day after US and Paraguay. The Aussies will know how much risk they need to take against Turkiye. Paraguay has to be careful in just sitting back hoping for a 0-0 draw or a counter to take a lead. And if we score early then they will have to open up.

 

Just because Paraguay might be in a lower block doesn't mean they are playing for a 0-0 draw. We have already seen this US team open to the counter and bone-headed mistakes multiple times. Now if they score a quick goal? Yea, they're going to be behind the ball all day long. But people making it seem like they are never going to send numbers forward are fooling themselves.

 

Yep. A low block does not equate to a team bunkering. And I would not be surprised to see Paraguay move Almiron to RM to run at Ream.

 

Probably didn't say it very well. I was trying to say that while Paraguay will mostly defend that they are not going to do that for 90 minutes and hope for the best. Too much risk for them to do that. They will push forward on occasion and I hope they do. Then our midfield takes the ball away and we get numbers advantage going the other way. Key is what you said. Don't make a bone headed mistake. If we do that I think Paraguay is in trouble.

 

If there's no Richards, he can run at either one of them.

 

Paraguay only won 1 road game in 9 attempts in WCQing.

A 0-1 in Peru.

Our game is in LA.. not Ascunion... and it will be 80-90% USA fans.

They scored less in WCQing than Bolivia.

Is it possible they beat us? Sure but we don't need to act like they are some scary force.

 

Well now I don't know what to think...

 

Paraguay, as my Peruvian dad pointed out, is a very dirty team. Always has been. Our guys need to know this (I'm SURE that Poch knows this). But our guys need to be smart about it and prepared to take the fouls. Adams needs to NOT get a stupid yellow for whatever grievances he'll have. We're going to get cut down, hard, anytime we've got a good play developing. Pulisic needs to get himself up off the ground and finish the play before complaining to the ref. It will be a slog.

 

This could be an underrated disadvantage to not playing qualifiers. The team is less sharp on the dealing with the gamesmanship that we know will happen.

Tbh, I will be nervous if Weah starts. If I am Paraguay, I definitely think I can get him carded with only a moderate amount of instigation.

 

The Slovenia game checks out as remarkably bizarre, we were run through the woodchipper that first half, like the Dutch game, they must have seen something on the tape, but of course, we actually won that game, until Coulibaly whistled the wrong team for the foul on Edu's goal. We also had Algeria beat via a Dempsey goal I'm about 90% was legit, but waived off, then had to chase the game. This, not coincidentally, is probably a big reason we lost (exhaustion from chasing back to back games along w/losing Davies and J. Jones) in the Round of 16.

 

Doesn't every host not play qualifiers? We're not the first, right? For the most part other hosts seem to overcome this disadvantage...