Pre-match: 6/12/26 9PM EST USA vs Paraguay: Game 1 of the big show

I rarely get very envious, but I am very envious. Enjoy it, record it, make memories. I still remember Sweden v Romania from 1994 at Stanford Stadium very, very well, and I wasn't even a fan of either team.

 

Weahs tackle was a message. Germans are historically dirty intimidators. They were physical during the match taking shots at Pulisic. Weah let them know, we can be physical too. Especially late in the match when both teams decided to concede and play kick around. But the Germans have got to German. Hopefully Weah said “that was for Battison.”

 

The tackle was fine with me. Good, clean, hard tackle.

All the afters had me worried.

 

Weah was jogging back in defense, Baum ran after him, then the bench cleared.
I love it. Sure, Weah knew what he was doing, the second Baum came in he was stirring shit so Weah let him know what’s up.
What he can’t do, ever, is lay hands on an opponent. As long as he knows enough not to do that, I can live with it.

 

Unless Jedi is much more injured than it seems, I would be surprised to have any lineup changes from the last game, other than to put Richards in if he's healthy, and if he's not, to hopefully play someone other than Miles.

 

If Chris Richards can’t go, Austin Trusty should be the guy to fill in. We’re going to have a lot of the ball against Paraguay and we’ll need to be careful about getting countered. Trusty plays under those circumstances literally every week, all season.

 

__________freese
_freeman_mckenzie_ream
____________adams
_____malik____________jedi
weah_______gio_____puli
___________pepi

i would obviously rather start trusty but why even bother? malik/wes is a tough choice for me (while gio, in this particular match, isnt)- but what i want is whoever poch sees as the better play as the deeper partner for adams? let them get this match without any confusion between the two.

two big variables i could imagine (outside of poch consistently picking the wrong guys, which isnt a variable) are sitting tyler and going with wes and malik, or starting arfsten if jedi even has a vague memory of discomfort in his lower extremities.

like most of you i think the non-miles 11 vs ger +richards is our "home base" according to poch. trusty over ream and weah over dest (and clarifying wes/malik one way or the other) would be my only changes to that. this the team best suited for paraguay imo.

my rotation/better matchups against aus would be seb as the right-sided 6/8 and wes/malik for gio. as for ream- even if hes a "starter" for poch (which isnt really a question) i really, really, really hope we sit him one of these first two matches. talk about 6 days between matches all you want- 38 is the number we have to manage. that has nothing to do with anyones feelings on how well hes still capable of playing- if we want him able to play later he needs to sit sooner. i dont think going with dest or weah in that one makes much difference.

which brings me to richards. turkey would be the goal for me, but i want to get him a 20ish minute runout in one of these (ideally aus so we can give him all the rest we can reasonably afford).

but against paraguay ability to defend speed in open space and pulling their backline apart are the keys. we dont need a lot of high pressing or dribbling into crowds. we have to chip away, work their defense, move it around (not let it rely on its horizontal/hand-off rotations). they have a very disciplined, deep-set defense that is more a zone defense than a try-hard bunker like we see in concacaf- thats going to be australia.

 

I think there will be some lineup changes from Germany. We actually had a lineup that tilted toward defensive security against Germany. An interesting hybrid of defensive player selection but aggressive pressing tactics. I think the tactics will stay against what I expect to be a Paraguay team that will be mainly playing for a counter. If anything, I expect an even more aggressive press.

In terms of personnel, I think we will tweak to get more attackers on the field. This might mean Dest to RB and Freeman to the bench. It would open up a spot in the lineup for a more attacking player. I also wonder if we will see some substitution patterns that involve putting both Balogun and Pepi on the field at the same time. They are both in good form and in theory have complementary games.

 

Reyna needs to start for this one as the fulcrum for a structured approach to break down Paraguay's low block. More so than how we play Australia where I think we'll have loads of opportunities on the counter.

Subs:

• Wes & Pepi at the 60 for Reyna and Balogun
• Arfsten at the 70 for Jedi
• Then dealer's choice for the 4th sub depending on where we're at

We need to manage our rotations aggressively.

 

I am sure my memory is selective -- but it is hard to remember occasions when the US has done this. Maybe some qualifier from the 2014 cycle? I am afraid for the US get three points, the team will have to be better in all phases.

 

I really thought there would be no way I wouldn’t be there but I’ve been so turned off by the complete cash grab this is from FIFA and the fact that this game has a such a high price just to get in.

 

WC games are usually decided by a single goal. I think Richards can make the difference between 1-0 win or a tie of 1-1 and dropping points.
Obviously if he is not ready, then he is not ready and will have to make do with what we got.

Because of our defense, we are going to have to score in each game to have a chance to advance.

 

I think this is the type of game you bring on Zendejas for. Obviously, depends on how the game shapes up, but if Paraguay plays the way we think, I think he is a better option than Brenden, or Weah. With 8 out of 12 3rd place teams advancing, I cannot really imagine any scenario they really open up in the first game.

I would go with the Senegal lineup from the start with Tillman over Seb, and Richards over McKenzie if he's ready. I'd like to see Turner, but I suspect that ship has sailed.

 

Richards should do at least one 30 min sub appearance before starting. He is vulnerable to re-injury.

 

I think we'll want Pepi over Balogun against the low block.

 

This is mine, I think, but I would start Turner. I do really struggle to put Weston on the bench and I'm not sure it's a good locker room move even if a good tactical move.

@deejay brings up Pepi or Balogun and that's valid, I think, given the possible lack of space to run in behind.

 

Iran if nothing else.

 

I think the US was better than Iran that game. Pulisic's goal was much more about execution than any sort of grit or willpower (not to undersell the finish of course). It wasn't a case where the team had to manufacture a goal from a scramble or a second ball in the box. There was some hanging on at the end, so maybe that's what you are focused on.

 

The things that have lead me to be pretty suspicious of the side are pretty straight forward:

#1 They were absolutely horrible at Copa America '24, like totally inept, matching how poorly they started they started qualifying leading up to Copa America (1 win in 7 matches, 4 total points at home in 4 matches to start qualifying that win being over moribund Bolivia which is basically a forfeit for that side whenever they leave their 13,000+ foot elevation home stadium, I think they've won like 1 or 2 games on the road in WCQ in the past 5 cycles combined) beaten by Brazil 4-1, Colombia 2-1 and Costa Rica 2-1.

#2 If you combine the '22 WCQ campaign after covid with the first 40% of '26 qualifying you get a horrific record, 4-10-11 in 25 matches. So it seems pretty clear something happened after they fired their coach following Copa America '24, as they went from that clip, essentially 80% of results being losses or draws from Fall '20 to Spring '24, to a run of 6 wins, 4 draws and just 1 loss?

#3 So the question then becomes, what the hell happened, and is it a small sample size trap+ a good coach? Is it a scheduling break that benefited them, what the hell happened?

First 7: 1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses -2 GD
Last 11: 6 Wins, 4 draws, 1 loss: +6 GD

The only thing I can find to help in scheduling down the stretch is that they had 6 of their final 11 games at home, and of their 5 roadies, only 2 were against top sides (Brazil and Ecuador) having already lost away to Argentina and Colombia, and tied Uruguay pre-Copa America and coach firing.....


Results w/the new coach in qualifiers:
September '24 Window:
0-0 draw at Uruguay that I keep making associating with the previous coach, when it's with the new guy....
1-0 home win over Brazil

October '24 Window:
0-0 away draw at Ecuador
2-1 home win over Venezuela

November '24 Window:
2-1 win over Argentina at home
2-2 away draw with Bolivia (pretty impressive in a weird elevation way)

March '25 Window:
1-0 home win over Chile
2-2 road draw with Colombia

June '25 Window:
2-0 home win over Uruguay
0-1 road loss to Brazil

September '25 Window:
0-0 Home draw with Ecuador
1-0 road win at Peru

Side note, Enciso, the player now knocked out of the opener against the US scored 3 goals in qualifying, 2 of which provided key equalizers in road draws on matchday 12 and 14 against Bolivia and Ecuador, and a 3rd which clinched a 2-0 win over Uruguay at home.....

For me, I think it's clear Paraguay is substantially better w/this coach, then whomever was running it from the start of '22 qualifying in the fall of '20 through the run up to Copa America two years ago. There's no arguing that, the results are significantly better...

They basically looked like the fourth best team in Comnebol in the last 2/3's of qualifying, and probably 9th of 10 in the first third.....There were some new players bled into the team under the new coach, 4 attackers, 2 defenders, though I think only 4 of them were brought in during qualifying, none of them scored during the campaign....

So it's hard for me to figure, just how hard are they going to be? Obviously they are a defense first side, but beyond that, how good are they? It's unclear. Getting multiple results against Uruguay when Uruguay was imploding post Copa America probably isn't terribly persuasive, but the road draw with Colombia looks good, and while this is the worst Brazil ever, playing them tight in a loss on the road, and winning at home looks good. Interestingly they played Ecuador home and away under the new coach and both matches were 0-0 draws....

I think my biggest take away is a superficial, this team was put together well by the new coach who seemed to instil enough self-belief that they pulled points out of every single match save a road trip to Brazil in the last 2/3's of qualifying.....

Here is theathletic's helpful breakdown, edited down a bit.....:

link: A team-by-team guide to the 2026 World Cup: What to expect and who to watch - The Athletic

Who is the coach?

Gustavo Alfaro, a new national hero.

The 63-year-old was in the dugout for Ecuador at the last World Cup, but he has since taken over at Paraguay after they crashed out of the Copa America in 2024, failing to pick up a single point in the competition for the first time in 99 years. The turnaround under the new boss has been remarkable, winning 24 points from a possible 36 in World Cup qualifying, with just one competitive defeat, a narrow 1-0 loss to Brazil, to his name.

Alfaro went viral in Paraguay earlier this year after cameras captured a greengrocer approaching him and breaking down in tears at a supermarket in Asuncion. “Thank you for giving us another chance to go to the World Cup,” he said. Alfaro recalled the incident at a press conference, and invited the fan to their 1-0 win over Chile the following month.......

How do they play?

Paraguay already had a reputation as one of the stingier South American sides, but since Alfaro took over in August 2024, they have kept seven clean sheets and conceded just seven goals in 12 competitive games. Famous home wins over world champions Argentina and Brazil, averaging just 23 and 29 per cent of the ball in each, showed them at their stubborn best.

The team is anchored on towering centre-backs; Gustavo Gomez is the long-standing captain of Brazilian giants Palmeiras, while Omar Alderete has impressed since joining Premier League side Sunderland. The midfield is packed with tough-tacklers and willing runners, while there are flashes of excitement out on the wings, with the rapid Ramon Sosa and the ever-inventive Julio Enciso looking to provide the inspiration on the break.

Who is their key player?

Defensive pillars aside, Enciso is that one player who possesses the ability and drive in attack to win games by himself. He took 14 shots and created six chances in just three games during their dismal Copa America 2024 showing, playing an active part in almost half of Paraguay’s attempts on goal.

Fizzing with energy, the 21-year-old can overdo it at times; former national team coach Daniel Garnero told Enciso that he does not always need to “save” the team or “take charge of every moment” after a 4-1 defeat by Brazil in that same tournament. That said, he is able to strike the ball magnificently from distance — winning the Premier League goal of the season award in 2022-23 — and remains the most likely to blow a cagey contest apart.

What are the key things to know about their final squad?

There were few surprises from Alfaro, and nor should there have been, given the team’s strong form in competitive action. Box-to-box midfielders Damian Bobadilla and Diego Gomez bring combative defensive work and well-timed runs into the box, while Andres Cubas is a more defensive option in midfield, having taken just 19 touches in the attacking penalty area for Vancouver Whitecaps in MLS across the past five years.

It will not be easy for any of their Group D opponents — Australia, Turkey, or the USMNT — to break through........

Newcastle United fans will be glad to hear that Miguel Almiron has featured in 11 of Paraguay’s last 12 competitive games.

Look out, too, for the promising Gomez, who scored four sensational goals for Brighton & Hove Albion in a League Cup tie at Barnsley this season........


I have us winning 2-0 or 2-1....considering how the friendly went, red cards a possibility?

 

Good thing Enciso is (likely) to miss the game.

 

We haven't.
We are still bleeding goals. Our best chance is to outscore our opponents. I won't feel comfortable with 1-0 lead.

 

even the few tailgate parties before the games are not free, you need to pay.

 

Ah, ok. We're talking about different things -- from @CyphaPSU 's post, I focused on the well-organized element of the opponent. I think that game took a decent amount of grit as well.

We've had a real lack of competitive matches this cycle, and that's where grit tends to come up. And then if the standard is that the other team is better than us and well organized, etc.

We gritted out the 2021 Gold Cup Final, perhaps, from that perspective.

 

I could technically swing it but I just can't get energy around going because of the cash grab aspect.

 

Balogun did score against Paraguay in the fall.

The lesson from the bunkering teams we've played over the last two years is that we need a central midfielder like Reyna in there.

When we played bunkering Panama with McKennie, Tessmann, and Adams in central midfield we absolutely dominated possession. I'm talking about the Nations League game. Panama could barely get out of their own half. Adams, in particular, was a monster in that game. HOWEVER, we didn't have anybody that could beat that block with a key, incisive pass. We weren't creating enough chances.

De la Torre did that very well against a bunkering Uzbekistan earlier in the cycle. Probably his best game in a US uniform until he busted his face. Just played beautifully in those tight spaces.