Pre-match: 6/12/26 9PM EST USA vs Paraguay: Game 1 of the big show

I poked around for some more info and it’s still the same basic story as the strong Paraguay teams from a couple decades ago. They don’t quite have the raw talent to compete on the same footing with Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay et al, but they make up for it with relentless defense and a very effective counterattack. Over 18 qualifying matches, they scored only 14 goals but conceded only 10.

And even without Enciso they have real capacity to counter. The player through whom transition runs is Miguel Almiron, who had a great run for Newcastle for about six years and recently returned to Atlanta Utd. He’s past the peak of his career but still effective. Scored 6 goals in 31 games for Atlanta last year. There’s also Antonio Sanabria, who seems to be a traditional 9 and a good (not great) one, having played for Serie A and La Liga teams for the past decade. He too seems to be on the decline a little too, not having scored much for club or country since 2023.

 

All 4 teams in the group believe they have the ability to get out of the group. Which means at least all the games are going to be fun to watch.

 

And we won 2-1.

(That goal was also largely caused by Scally apparently losing a ball in the air visually and cutting to the sideline to header something that wasn't there. The cross never ever happens if he plays that right.)

 

I think I see this game a bit differently.

• The big difference in Paraguay between our friendly and this competitive match won't be that Paraguay's attack suddenly gets much better; it's that their defense will almost certainly be more tougher in some way. I suspect they will be more compact, more conservative, mor physical but I don't know enough to rule out something more aggressive.
• But either way -- it's less that they will be a bigger threat than they will be harder to score on.
• For me, that means I'd really consider starting Reyna at the 10. He picked apart Paraguay last time. He's the best we've got at attacking a bunker. He's not the best player there, and perhaps the strategy is to better attack via press, etc. and play more for a 1-0, but I think he's likely to play a role. I'd rather go up 2-0, then take him off the field than put him on late chasing a goal.
• Our rest and transition defense has been far better than what it seems based on what people focus on. Based on %s, I'm more worried about set piece dysfunction, turnovers in our end and when the other team has possession. It's not that we can't give up transition, but aside from the first Mane goal, that hasn't actually been the issue in terms of transition from the other side of the field. It's not great ... it's just not actually a disaster.
• Same lineup as Germany except replace Miles. Other than the mistakes, he hasn't been bad, but you can't "other than" those mistakes. Then I'd probably start Reyna over McKennie and perhaps slide McKennie over or back, replacing Tillman or Dest. I don't know. When you type those, they all seem insane, but I think Reyna needs to be out there.
• I would probably not be as aggressive with numbers in non-transition moments. I'm not sure the guys you'd bring up -- especially Freeman and Jedi -- are all that helpful once the defense is set. They are great when there's a bit of chaos, but neither is a really a possession guy.
• I start Turner, but I do not think we will see that. For this game, Freese might actually make more sense, but I think Turner should be the guy for this World Cup. We're going to need a big save sometime and I don't see it from Freese. He's not even making the kinda big saves right now.

 

In 2025, the US gave up 6 set piece goals out of a total of 16 goals. But so far in 2026, the team have given up only 1 set-piece goal out of a total of 11. Of course, the 11-goal total is troubling.

Paraguay had 44% possession in the US friendly. When considering Paraguay's recent competitive history, they'll probably set a deeper block, with the possession coming in in the 30 percent range.

As for the US approach, a 343 would seem a reasonable bet for this group under Poch. Sit Ream, Miles, and Freese. But I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 start, given they had all started in the 2-1 friendly win over Paraguay. Actually, the only US starter from that match who didn't make the WC team was Tessmann.

 

In a 2025 WCQer.....................Paraguay ceded 73% possession to Uruguay

Uruguay got 0 shots on goal and lost the game.

This game has the potential to be like Panama in the Nations League for us.
We will hopefully have learned from that experience.

 

Or Panama in the Copa. After watching some of Weah's antics yesterday. Made me a little nervous.

 

Who is Paraguay?

Been around awhile and the general themes on BS is point, counter point, and if I we are lucky enough the deviles advocate. We might lose tie or win. No overbearing confidence because if you have that then it’s bad voodoo. Our fans try to act like the English fans who are overtly critical and might hate their own team. Because that shows true fandom Instead of say anywhere else who give full support. So yes we should beat Paraguay. Will we. No clue. But going in believing we will.

 

Weah makes me nervous too. If Dest has to come out then Poch should use Zendejas instead of Weah.

 

Reyna starting against a low-block is a good shout. An interesting question would be that of Pepi vs Balogun. Balogun did score in that Paraguay friendly, but they will likely sit deeper this time. Pepi, Reyna, and Dest would possession and creativity in the attacking half.

 

Fun fact: Paraguay have more MLS players in this tournament than any other nation that doesn't consider MLS a domestic league. 4 players total, and 2 expected starters: Andres Cubas of Vancouver and Miguel Almiron of Atlanta.

A little more speculative, but Australia might have more MLS-based expected starters than any team in the tournament (including even the US and Canada): Kai Trewin and Aiden O'Neill of NYCFC, and Lucas Herrington of Colorado.

 

I concur that Reyna's best attributes align with playing a team like Paraguay. But I have two issues with starting him.
1. Can he go at least 45 minutes AND not just sit in the attack but come back and support the defense?
2. Who do you take off in order to start him? I think we suffer elsewhere on the field more than any attacking bump Reyna gives us.

 

[QUOTE="Mt Stone@, post: 43701873, member: 292515”]\After watching some of Weah's antics yesterday. Made me a little nervous.[/QUOTE]

Yeah thought the same. Here's a player who basically single-handedly tanked the most important tournament we had to play prior to the WC, resulting in one of the worst tournament performances since WC98, all because he couldn’t contain his temper. But despite that, Weah was really hot under the collar and making some big tackles and getting into scraps. Pretty sure my ravaged memory is correct that he got a yellow (ETA: confirmed, though apparently it was for dissent).

For all his sincere contrition and admirable responsibility-taking after the Copa, if he does that shit again I’ll be livid. Once you can forgive, twice no way.

 

1. He can likely go 45, which would be fine given the 5 available subs.
2. In 343, either Wes or Tillman would partner Adams. One could sit for Reyna but then sub in at the half.

 

I’m not clear on who should start along Pulisic in attack.
Weston isn’t great, but maybe best option.
Malik is up and down, and often quiet. Likely to be at DM alongside Adams.
Gio has his moments but has no match play over last 12 months.
Brendan is a hard worker but doesn’t have the technical finesse.
Weah is a speed demon who can get on through balls but not known for his passing.
Haji hasn’t been given a chance next to Pulisic behind a striker.

having seen them all, I’d actually go with Gio as the starter against Paraguay, and hope for that moment of magic.

 

Given Paraguay is likely to sit deep I want Wes in the more attacking role crashing the box for potential headers.

 

what do you do if it’s 0-0 after 60 min or we go down a goal.

 

Dest needs to start on the right. No one else is more dynamic in the attack besides Pulisic.
Flo
Pulisic McKennie Dest
Adams Tillman

 

Probably still the same. If it’s too crowded for Balogun to do his thing maybe bring Pepi on in his place. Or maybe then Gio for Wes

 

never under estimate a team from south america; they always have a player or two that can send in a cracker if you lose focus.

 

And we do sometimes allow some space for those type of shots.

 

Dest.

Though I get the thinking with starting Reyna vs Paraguay, I'd be a hard no. That game is likely to be physical & scrappy.

I want Tillman & Wes out there with Adams. If we can't crack them by the 65th, then bring him on.

Weah makes me nervous.

------------------------Turner-------------------
Freeman--Richards/McKenzie--Ream--Jedi
-------------------------Adams-------------------
---------------McKennie-----Tillman--------
Dest------------------Balogun-------------Pulisic

Jedi will player higher than Freeman, who will be in the back during build up.

Poch won't start Turner. But I think the starters vs Germany is the XI save for MRob.

 

By position Paraguay goals and assists of the past 20 matches.

Goals
FW CM LB CM LM CM FW CAM LM CAM LM LM CAM LM CAM LB CAM
LM CB FW CB FW FW

Assists
RM LM RB LM CM RB RM CM FW CAM RM RB LB

The lack of more direct contributions from their strikers stands out. Sanabria had a brace against Venezuela back in Oct '24. But that was last big flourish.

 

I think we see this

 

GB put out an all Berhalter lineup v Paraguay. Glad he is having fun with this very proud moment for him.

Da Bruce started Berhalter over Tillman in his lineup.

BB had likely one of the community consensus starting lineup, in its 4-3-2-1 guise it looks like

Balo
Pulisic Tillman Dest
McKennie Adams
Jedi Ream McKenzie Freeman
Turner
​

See 5:38