WBA and Sunderland are going down, barring a major miracle. The bigger question is, who'll join them? I've looked at the remaining schedules for the teams placed 13-18, and come to the inescapable conclusion that Bolton will be relegated. They have a very difficult schedule. West Ham on the other hand have the easiest schedule of the 6 teams 'fighting' the drop. Okay, Fulham is pretty far clear, but they've got a tough schedule too and are sure to be dropping backwards. I did my analysis based on the average points per game scored by the remaining opponents of each team. The League average is 1.373 points/game and this neatly divides the top half from the bottom half. Results: West Ham 1.294 Birmingham 1.314 League 1.375 Aston Villa 1.451 Leeds 1.489 Fulham 1.583 Bolton 1.684 Thus, West Ham and Birmingham look to have an easy run-in, and the rest of them have harder than average run-ins. Bolton has only 2 matches left against teams in the bottom half of the table. They're against Man City and West Ham. These are both must win matches for Bolton, and by beating West Ham, they give themselves a chance, however small, to relegate West Ham instead. Here are my final points guesses for these teams: (They are certainly underestimates, since it's hard to account for the 2 points difference between a win and a draw.) Fulham: 43 Birmingham: 43 Aston Villa: 42 Leeds: 41 West Ham: 36 Bolton: 34
If West Ham stay up there'll be no justice. They're shite, we're probably worse but we absolutely battered em the other week and lost thanks to two ridiculous refereeing/linesman decisions. So i want Bolton to stay up, i like Bolton anyway cos they don't like the Dingles.
Please God let it be West Ham that are humbled by the nationwide and then disappear to obscurity. Bolton should stay up solely for the achievement of beating Man U at OT 2 years running. The sound of Bolton fans singing "Can we play you every week" to the Stretford End personified everything that is great about football.
Updated after a couple weeks from this original post, what do you think now? Aston Villa 38 -1 Leeds 38 -2 Fulham 38 -11 Birmingham 38 -13 Bolton 35 -12 West Ham 32 -19 West Ham plays at Bolton this Saturday. In my opinion, if one of them LOSE, they're probably going to go down. If they draw, it's still up in the air. However, given the fact that Fulham are rudderless right now and that they play a brutal schedule down the stretch against Newcastle, red hot Leeds, Chelsea, Everton and Charlton, it is quite conceivable that they go pointless the rest of the campaign. Stuck on 38 points and with a GD that would likely balloon to -20 or more, that gives a chance to both Bolton and West Ham to get clear.
I really hope Bolton win this weekend. It's going to be a hell of a match. I just think it would be good for comedy purposes if Wham went down. but as you said, the 3'rd spot has a good chance at being decided this weekend. I'm just glad we (Leeds) have pulled ourself away from it a bit.
yeah.... now that Kewell is in the right position and Smith is up top. Smith being used as a striker and Matteo in midfield has made most of the difference. Viduka is playing about the same, but things are finally going his way. Reid is getting Kewell to not be so lazy as well.
If West Ham win on saturday they'll still be in the bottom three (unless they give Bolton a dicking). All a West Ham win means is that more teams get dragged into the relegation battle.
I agree that a Bolton loss doesn't put them into the relegation zone because they'd be equal on points but still ahead by goal differential. However since Bolton has a tougher schedule left than does West Ham, they'd be hard pressed to stay equal points and take advantage of that goal differential. So the loser of this match is at a disadvantage. However, if West Ham does win putting both Bolton and West Ham on 35 points -- it really draws all those teams left on 38 into the fight -- particularly Fulham. Aston Villa can save themselves with a win v. Sunderland. Leeds is hot and can draw clear with a win v. Fulham. Birmingham should have good chance at some points v. Middlesbrough and/or West Ham to draw themselves clear. Fulham has almost zero chance of getting points. If West Ham can get to 38, they may very well send Fulham back down. But that's still a reasonable large IF and this weekends game is a big part of them getting to 38 or 39.
I think Fulham are in deep ************, they're in freefall and both Bolton and West Ham are on a good run of form. They could be the surprise package to go down.
Just want to take this chance to agree with Prenn, since I normally tug his beard about the relative quality of the England side. I agree. Both West Ham and Bolton have so much quality throughout their sides. Even Tomos Repka (penalty notwithstanding) is playing well. Over the last ten weeks, Roeder has picked his team and stuck with it and the Hammers have played with so much more consistancy. DeFoe has really worked well with Ferdinand since he came over. And Bolton can play with anyone, so long as they don't give up cheap goals. They have so many flexible players - if only they had a true goalscorer. Think what Michael Owen would do if he had Djorkaeff and Okocha pulling the strings for him. But Henrik Pedersen is at least playing with confidence. West Ham and Bolton both have the quality to win matches. I don't care how tough Bolton's run-in is. They have played well against top teams all season - whether it is ManU or Chelsea (two weeks ago). They don't fear anyone. And West Ham has players who can run rings around lower quality sides, even if they show poorly against top-notch opponents. Anyway, my gut (why are emotional determinations by guys associated with gut instincts, but in girls attributed to feminine intuitions?) tells me that West Ham and Bolton are both going to be able to pull through. Fulham on the other hand . . . has many skillful players, but the best ones know they are likely to be gone next year. What incentive do Malbranque, Marlet, et al have to play out the season strong? What was Al Fayad thinking when he handled Tigana's situation the way he did? Maybe he thought they were safe, but if it were not for Maik Taylor, they would have lost to ManU and Liverpool by silly scores instead of the solid drubbings they received. And Fulham has a murderous run-in as has been illustrated above. Can you believe that this team has only 1 win away from "home"? Leeds seem to have turned the corner (we Liverpool fans know it when we see it, right Prenn?). You know that Peter Reid is going to use telekinesis to will them to win, just so he can rub the extra £500,000 in the face of Mr. Murray at Sunderland. He certainly has tapped into pride or something at Elland Road. If he manages to stay on as manager and earn them an upper-half placing next season, his reputation as a motivator/miracle worker will be further cemented. Even if he doesn't have the technical savvy to direct a championship run or carry a team into a strong run in European competition. And Birmingham might be able to squeak by. They desparately need to improve their defense - the players they have simply aren't reliable. Steve Bruce deserves a lot of credit for holding them together with duct tape and baling wire (twine), as the saying goes here. That and his ability to attract a player of the quality of Dugarry to help with the run-in. Aston Villa is my dark horse for relegation. They have been able to reduce the losses, but they still are not showing the ability to win or score goals. Graham Taylor deserves credit for putting quality players in positions where they have more of an impact on the game (Gareth Barry for instance). But he still doesn't have the team playing as a unit and they simply struggle to score. Plus, their run-in is almost as bad as Fulham's (both play Everton, Newcastle, Leeds and Chelsea!). Six points (between West Ham and either Fulham or Aston Villa) are a big turnaround within 5 games. However, at the bottom of the table (as unpredicatable as these teams are) six points is a precious thin cushion when you are not on form and you enter the strength of schedule into the equation.
Aston Villa has one thing going for it that Fulham doesn't (aside from not having a lame duck manager that doesn't care any more) -- they still get to play Sunderland. After getting an unexpected point at West Ham, being able to get a point or 3 at Sunderland will probably save their season. Fulham doesn't have that. They're done and cooked. If West Ham can pull out six points and make up the goal difference, Fulham gets dropped. But West Ham getting six points is nowhere near sure.
Hold the presses -- Tigana is walking away -- and that's probably the best thing that could happen to Fulham. Looks like Fulham management decided that it's quite possible they could drop if they don't do something. Article here http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=264353&cc=5901 What the hell are they thinking / smoking? There is no way they are going to get maximum points from the remaining games. Fortunately for them, they likely only need 1 or 2. Heck even no points but limiting losses to 1 goal losses would probably do it.
Well i for one most definitely hope not. I would much rather see the back of West Ham. Although Fulham are proving that money alone can't do in the EPL what it did for the Florida Marlins a few years back. Oh the joy if the hammers go down
My two cents (sorry pence) Basically the same as what everyone else is saying. I think its gonna be west ham or fulham. (one less London team is never a bad thing). West ham is playing better and I think has the better side but they have used up all there get out of Jail free cards. But they have a quality team and still have home support. Also they have the emotional advantage of being on a good run right now. They have known since november that they were gonna be in the fight. If back on christmas day you had said with 4 weeks left to go you'll still have a good chance at staying up they would have taken it. So for them they see the light at the end of the tunnel and its getting closer. Fulham is on the other side of that equation. The light at the end of the tunnel they see is the train which is gonna run them over. This wasn't supposed to be a relegation year, yet here they are. And the more they loose the tighter that noose is gonna feel. So I think Fulham is going to go down (wonder if they would move back to craven cottage if they went down).
Well, talk about everything going to hell in a hand basket for West Ham this weekend. Not only did they lose to Bolton, but Fulham and Aston Villa both post HUGE upsets and move clear of the "traditional" relegation zone. They got a win today, but with Bolton also getting a point and Leeds playing at home tomorrow, the points today are probably a case of too little too late. They needed to get some points on Saturday against their closest rival.
Agreed. Bolton are playing well (did us a huge favour by getting a draw at Blackburn) and I'm sure Leeds will pick up a point or two from somwhere. West Ham
And the question is....who will defoe be playing for next season? He would fit in rather well with Sheff Utd.
ALthough what about Joe Cole and Lee Bowyer? Can the hammers afford to keep them on Nationwide league revenue?
Doubt it really.But, isn't the thug out of contract at the end of this season? One thing they will have going for them though is they will still pull in crowds in excess of 30,000.
After the Easter Monday matches, it looks like it's still up in the air. Leeds is in deep doo-doo if they don't win Tuesday. Any of Bolton, Leeds, or West Ham look to be the 3rd team to drop. I think West Ham will get more points off of Man City, Chelsea and Birmingham, than Leeds will get off of Blackburn, Arsenal, and Aston Villa. Bolton finishes against Arsenal, Southampton, and Middlesbrough. Congrats to the boys from Birmingham. We'll be getting to see more of those Birmingham derbies next year. Can't wait! Okay, they still need one point, or West Ham to drop a point, but that's almost a certainty.