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Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Kevin Lindstrom, Jun 28, 2005.
Good job Kevin.
How on earth is United ranked 4th when they would be out of the playoffs if they began today, and being -8 on pace (nice idea, BTW), while other teams below them have better records and are closer to pace? Sorry, this poll is flawed.
In that middle pack, things are tight. And when DC beats the best and second best teams in the East, that gets taken into consideration. Since they didn't play last week, and I didn't see a team do anything to tell me they could do what United had done the week before, they stayed where they were. Now if Metro had beaten the Rev, then you might have seen a move. Or if LA had beaten SJ, possibly (or possibly not).
Thanks for the positive comment on the Pace. I've used it for years and really like it.
Shut up, you. ()
Definitely keep pace (nyuk, nyuk). I guess I see DCU's high power ranking and I don't think it's reflective of the team's play over the season, this past week notwithstanding.
Look more carefully. DCU has games in hand on every team above them in the standings (3 on Chicago!). Maybe it's not the poll that's flawed. On points for games played, it's Metro that would be out of the playoffs, and not DC.
There are three teams behind them with more ppg. For KC Wiz and Sj Quakes, it's within any reasonable margin of error (they've both looked good at times and crap at times, too), where it isn't a reach to use recent form as a tiebreaker. The third is the Gals, who can't do crap on the road, and who have gotten 4 of their 7 wins from the expansion teams.
If you calculate by points per game you get:
So at best, we'd switch places with the Metro.
OK.. so you edited while I was posting...
Here's my contention: United isn't the 4th best team in the league. ESPN had them 3rd and I'm not sure what CNNSI has. Two sterling halves of soccer sandwiched between a pretty atrocious one and a strong one are not the makings of a solid frontrunning team. I'd rate us 5th or 6th personally.
At any rate, FCD and NER have distanced themselves from their conferences.
After that, there's a large pack of "pretty decent, but inconsistent" in which all Chicago, DC, Metro, KC, and SJ, and LA all fall. (SJ also has four games against the expansion teams, but only 1 win and 3 ties).
Then there's Colorado, Columbus, RSL, and Chivas in the " generally bad" category.
Sorry, extra thoughts come to me that way
Anyway, you've done half the work: who do you rate above us that Kevin ranks below?
My contention is that using your method of analysis, there isn't a fourth-best team in the league. (I think it comes from looking at your own club more closely than anyone else. Remember the KC game at KC? DCU wasn't great in that one, but KC was terrible. They've all been terrible in their turn except for FCD and NER).
Behind who? That was my problem. Certainly not LA - they are showing their true colors with every road game. Maybe behind Metro and Chicago, but I still have a bad taste in my mouth about Metro and their inconsistency at home. San Jose and KC aren't that great, and have benefitted from recent games against weak teams (esp. KC and Chivas). And San Jose couldn't beat Chivas..... (I know, I know, the ref and all that, but it shouldn't be that close, folks.)
I don't really do a points system like Sagarin does to reflect the distances between the different teams, but if I did, it would show a pretty big gap between the top two and the middle pack. Right now United is getting the benefit of the doubt because they played well against good teams while the other teams in their pack didn't.
It could change as of this weekend.
Ironically, FCD needed an 81st minute goal against Chivas at home to win the game on 6/22/05. For an elite team at home, that game really should not be that close Now if the sideline official had incorrectly ruled that the game-winning goal was offside, that game would probably have ended up as a draw. It shouldn't be that close.
I'm just giving you a hard time. The rankings appear to be appropriate. In terms of getting results, the Revs and FCD are above the pack, with the Revs ahead of FCD due to Dallas' recent "struggles" against lesser opponents (Chivas, Colorado where an 85th minute GWG was necessary). Below those two teams are 6 teams that have been inconsistent (Metros, Fire, DC, KC, LAG, Quakes). Rankings of those six teams will vary.
ESPN.com ranks them:
Chicago, KC, DC, Metros, SJ, LAG
Grant Wahl of CNNSI says:
Chicago, SJ, DC, KC, LAG, Metros
Sagarin has it:
DC, KC, Chicago, SJ, Metros, LAG
And of course 3rd Degree:
Chicago, DC, KC, SJ, Metros, LAG
The rankings are all over the map. Thankfully, this will all be settled on the field...eventually.
On the DC discussion - interesting that they are no lower than fifth in any of them, and third in one and fourth in the other.
FYI - Chicago seems like a very loose third right now. A strong push by teams behind them might get them caught, imo.
As much as I agree that they're a loose third, their feeble hold should continue to be enough for a couple more weeks due to the sheer volumes of games played. Barring a terrible run of form, decent showings will be enough to give them far more points than 4th-8th.
With games this Wednesday (hosting DC) and Saturday (@Chivas), the Fire will have played their 18th game of the season, while the likes of New England and Metro have played just 14 (15th to come on Sunday). At only 5 points behind, Chicago could even grab the Eastern Conference lead with two wins without the Revs getting a chance to regain it until Sunday. With an astonishing 4 additional games played over 3-4 months, that's just lunacy.
Chicago will maintain that leg up of 2-4 games on the rest of the East well through August. Looking at the remaining schedule, they really don't drop games until late August and early September. I'm hearing some early reports that Chicago was actually scheduled for 36 games in error.
I think those rankings are pretty accurate. Though.. I might put Chivas in front of colorado.. jk
One of the comments made was a good one.. When FCD and Revolution play it's not the game that it should be.. Many are going to be lost for the Gold cup unfortunatly
Duh... its because the FC Dallas beat them!
no joke...that should be the game of the season so far but it probably won't...i still believe the Hoops can take the Revs
Adding the Power Poll from the San Jose Mercury.
Slightly OT but I'd like to note that there seems to be more power polls than ever before. I wonder if this is an indication of either more folks following the league, or else more folks following it in a more close/sophisticated manner?
Yeah, right. And wins over Chicago and New England don't matter. But hey, if you don't see that, get used to disappointment.
As I've mentioned a few times on the Revs boards, the Revs/FCD will most likely not play a full-strength game during the regular season. First due to the Gold Cup, and the second time will be due to WCQ.
Now with the 4th place CONCACAF team playing in mid-November (on the 13th IIRC), there's a chance that Dallas (Ruiz) or the Revs (Avery John) could be missing someone as well.
Too bad... because the league would benefit from two teams that play fun attractive soccer playing each other with all of their best players available.
(jk-alert) Same old Monty - already making excuses.
Then again, maybe the championship game will benefit from the suspense.
Truly, I think that both teams will be very strong come the Cup - although Dallas may or may not be without Ruiz. I certainly wouldn't volunteer to play the game without him, but I'm not going to say Dallas has no chance simply because he isn't in there. That is a long way down the road - who knows if Dallas and NE will stay at the top of their divisions by then? Or make it to the Cup final?
Even without Ruiz in the Cup...Dallas should be alright..they have played pretty well so far in his absence...but I would bet some $$ that he will be back by then...