211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

Not sure about the most but we played 22 matches to qualify for the 2018 World Cup and we had a bye in the first round of AFC qualifying.

 

I was talking about rounds against one opponent. You had two two-leg series then. I was excluding group stage games.

87. Bermuda (Jamaica 3-0 Bermuda made Bermuda be 8 points behind second with 2 games left)

That is all of the eliminations this month. 28 teams have qualified. 58 teams may or may not qualify. 14 will qualify in November, 22 will be eliminated in November, 6 will qualify in March, and 16 will be eliminated in March. 38 teams were eliminated this month.

 

Probably Latvia was first, as the second half of that match started earlier, and the referee just gave 2 minutes of additional time (that is why England qualified before Saudi Arabia).

 

Ok, misunderstood you. 3 two leg series in 1993 is the most we have had (New Zealand, Canada and Argentina. Unfortunately we fell at the last hurdle.

 

Here are Concacaf's elimination scenarios for Thursday 13 November:

El Salvador will be eliminated if they lose at Suriname.

Trinidad and Tobago will be eliminated with:
A loss hosting Jamaica and a Curacao win or draw at Bermuda or
A draw hosting Jamaica and a Curacao win at Bermuda
Since Curacao will probably win, Trinidad and Tobago probably needs to win.

Nicaragua will be eliminated with:
A draw or loss at Honduras or
Haiti vs. Costa Rica in Curacao has a winner or
Suriname wins at El Salvador and Guatemala vs. Panama has a winner. That would prevent Nicaragua from being one of the best two second place teams.

 

Tomorrow (13 November), the first two eliminations will be in CAF. There are two neutral site games in Rabat, Morocco that advance the winner. Nigeria vs. Gabon is followed by Cameroon vs. DR Congo. In between CAF and Concacaf is UEFA.

In Group D:
Azerbaijan must win hosting Iceland and have Ukraine lose at France. Azerbaijan vs. Iceland is first. Azerbaijan has no realistic chance because even if France qualifies and does not use their best players at Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan would probably have to win by many goals to catch Ukraine's goal differential.
Iceland will be eliminated if they lose at Azerbaijan and Ukraine wins or draws, or if Azerbaijan draws and Ukraine wins. Stated differently, Iceland needs at least as many points as Ukraine. If Ukraine wins and Iceland does not, Iceland and Azerbaijan will be eliminated.

In Group F:
Ireland will be eliminated if they lose hosting Portugal and Hungary wins at Armenia, and Hungary plays first.
Armenia will be eliminated if they lose hosting Hungary, or if they draw and Ireland defeats Portugal.

In Group I:
No teams can be eliminated by games within the group. Israel and Moldova can be eliminated by games in other groups guaranteeing that they cannot make the Playoffs from the Nations League. Group K's games could make Israel one team away from being eliminated, meaning that they would need four other teams not currently in the top two to finish in the top two.

In Group K:
No teams can be eliminated. If Serbia loses at England and Albania wins at Andorra, Serbia will be eliminated from the top two, and will need at least three of the teams I referred to about Israel to move up to the top two. Those teams are Wales, Romania, Sweden, and Northern Ireland. None of those teams play tomorrow, and Northern Ireland plays the next day on Friday 14 November.

Including CAF, UEFA, and Concacaf, there are two guaranteed eliminations, and seven possible eliminations.

 

86. Gabon

They were tied with Nigeria 1-1 after 90 minutes, and lost 4-1 in extra time.

 

85. Azerbaijan

They needed to defeat Iceland, and it was Azerbaijan 0-2 Iceland.

 

85. and 84. Armenia and Azerbaijan

I missed that Armenia was eliminated at about the same time as Azerbaijan, and I do not know which game ended first. Armenia could not lose, and it was Armenia 0-1 Hungary.

 

83. Cameroon

Lost 1-0 against DR Congo in the CAF play-offs. Haven't checked but I think Cameroon is the only team that participated in the 2022 World Cup that has been eliminated for the 2026 World Cup

 

82. El Salvador

They could not lose, and it was Suriname 4-0 El Salvador.

With Suriname's win, Nicaragua needs the last three games at the same time to go right including winning.

 

Yes, they're the only one though Serbia is hanging from the smallest of threads right now.

 

81. Trinidad and Tobago

They needed at least as many points as Curacao. Bermuda 0-7 Curacao meant that Trinidad and Tobago needed to win. They trailed for 32 minutes, and scored a late goal to get a 1-1 draw.

 

80. Nicaragua
79. Guatemala

I think Haiti vs. Costa Rica in Curacao ended before Guatemala lost. Scores were Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica and Guatemala 2-3 Panama.

 

82. Israel

I missed that they were eliminated yesterday when Serbia was eliminated from the top two. Wikipedia lists three teams above Israel in Nations League order for playoff spots, but there are also three teams in Group J above Israel, which means at least one of them will not finish in the top two.

That makes me renumber Concacaf from yesterday:

81. El Salvador
80. Trinidad and Tobago
79. Nicaragua
78. Guatemala

77. Finland

They needed to win, and it was Finland 0-1 Malta. That means Netherlands and Poland with be first and second in Group G in some order. They play today in Poland.

Faroe Islands needs a win or draw at Croatia to survive, but even if they do, they will not qualify because on the last matchday Czech Republic will win hosting Gibraltar. That is today's only remaining possible elimination.

Northern Ireland will be eliminated from the top two if they lose at Slovakia, but Northern Ireland can still make the Playoffs from the Nations League.

Here are UEFA's scenarios for tomorrow:

At the same time, Georgia hosts Spain, and Turkiye hosts Bulgaria. Georgia must win and have Turkiye lose.

Slovenia must win hosting Kosovo.

 

76. Faroe Islands

They needed to win or draw, and it was Croatia 3-1 Faroe Islands.

 

I believe Serbia, San Marino and Moldova could also be eliminated tomorrow.

Serbia can only enter the playoffs via the Nations League ranking, but right now there are already 3 teams with a place ahead of them: Northern Ireland, Moldova, and San Marino. Then, Serbia would be eliminated if either one of the following 3 things happen:

(a) In group J, either (i) Belgium wins at Kazkhstan (and qualifies to the WC), or (ii) if they tie but Wales tie or lose at Liechtenstein, or (iii) if they lose but Wales also lose. In either case, one of North Macedonia or Wales will not finish in the top two, but will advance to the playoffs via the Nations League.

(b) In group H, Romania lose at Bosnia-Herzegovina. With that result, Romania will not finish in the top two, but will advance to the playoffs via the Nations League.

(c) In group B, either (i) Sweden tie or lose at Switzerland, or (ii) Sweden win, but Kosovo win or tie at Slovenia. In either case, Sweden will not finish in the top two, but will advance to the playoffs via the Nations League.

If two of cases (a), (b) and (c) happen, then San Marino would also be eliminated, as there will already be 4 teams ahead of them in the Nations League ranking.

If the three cases (a), (b) and (c) happen, then Moldova would also be eliminated, as there will already be 4 teams ahead of them in the Nations League ranking.

 

Wikipedia pointed out that Serbia is eliminated. Yesterday's Slovakia 1-0 Northern Ireland guaranteed that Northern Ireland will finish outside the top two. Them, San Marino, Moldova, and a Group J team are above Serbia in the Nations League rankings. Group J has Wales and North Macedonia that can each pass Belgium (who hosts Liechtenstein, so they will qualify), but they cannot both pass Belgium because they play each other. That means:

75. and 76. Serbia and Faroe Islands in an unknown order

What I said about Group J means that if Belgium clinches over Wales today is irrelevant to San Marino and Moldova. After CAF's groups ended last month that advances four second place teams excluding results against sixth place teams, UEFA still makes it complicated.

 

Slovenia vs. Kosovo will eliminate:

Slovenia if they do not win
San Marino if both of Switzerland winning and Romania losing do not happen or end after Kosovo wins or draws
Moldova if one of Switzerland winning and Romania losing do not happen or end after Kosovo wins or draws
Nobody if Switzerland winning and Romania losing happen and end before Kosovo wins or draws

Spain leads Georgia 4-0, so Georgia will be eliminated in under half an hour.

Edit:

74. Georgia

They needed Turkiye to lose, and it was Turkiye 2-0 Bulgaria. Georgia 0-4 Spain ended later.

64 teams will be alive at the end of the month, so nine more will be eliminated this month.

 

Hurtling towards 64 by the end of this window.

CONCACAF will eliminate 2 more. CAF & AFC one each. The rest will be UEFA.

 

73. Slovenia

They needed to be beat Kosovo, and it was Slovenia 0-2 Kosovo.

Here are tomorrow's elimination scenarios, which are simple. CAF's only game has Nigeria plays DR Congo in Morocco. The winner goes to Playoffs, and the loser is eliminated. UEFA has three sessions, the first two of which are before CAF. Hungary hosts Ireland, and one of them will be eliminated. Hungary needs a draw, and Ireland needs a win. Portugal vs. Armenia is relevant to qualifying or finishing second, but not to eliminations. The second session has four games. Group K is irrelevant, as England qualified, Albania finished second, and everybody else is eliminated. Group D has Ukraine host Iceland, and one of them will be eliminated. Ukraine needs a win, and Iceland needs a draw. Azerbaijan vs. France is irrelevant. The last session will not have eliminations. Italy hosts Norway. Norway wins the group and Italy goes to Playoffs unless Italy wins by at least 9 goals. Either way, neither of them can be eliminated, and Israel vs. Moldova is between two eliminated teams. Chronologically the eliminations will be Hungary or Ireland, Ukraine or Iceland, and Nigeria or DR Congo. The amount of teams remaining will go from 72 to 69.

 

Also San Marino and Moldova are eliminated, as they are already 4 teams that will get to the playoffs via Nations League ranking: Romania, Sweden, Northern Ireland, and either Wales or North Macedonia.

 

That means I do not know order of games ending that eliminated San Marino, Moldova, and Slovenia. San Marino was eliminated before Moldova.

71., 72., and 73. San Marino, Moldova, and Slovenia

UEFA will eliminated two teams tomorrow as I already posted, which will leave UEFA with 28 teams that qualify or go to Playoffs. The last two days are Monday 17 November and Tuesday 18 November, and UEFA will not eliminate any teams then. UEFA is the only confederation that plays on Monday, so nobody will be eliminated then.

70 and 69 will be in UEFA, 68 will be in CAF, 67 will be in AFC, and 66 and 65 will be in Concacaf.

 

70. Hungary

They needed to win or draw, and it was Hungary 2-3 Ireland. Troy Parrott scored in the 90+6th to win it. I wonder if that is the latest goal by a player to save his team from elimination and give him at least 3 goals that game. Hungarian fans who are hungry to make the World Cup will have to wait four more years. Irish fans will hope Parrott repeats his heroics in Playoffs.