211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

Thank you. I hope every team attempts to qualify for World Cup 2030, and nobody drops out after groups are made.

Mauritius 0-0 Libya did not eliminate anybody because Eswatini could win to pass Mauritius, but Cabo Verde 3-0 Eswatini qualified Cabo Verde for the first time, and made Eswatini finish last. Cameroon 0-0 Angola made Cameroon finish second with 19 points, including 15 points not against sixth. Madagascar is done with 13 points not against sixth, and four teams have at least 14 points not against sixth that cannot have the sixth place team change. Cameroon led the group in goal differential, but they have to go through two rounds of CAF playoffs and one or two rounds of interconfederational playoffs.

Now half of the 96 remaining teams have qualified or will qualify.

 

96. Luxembourg (they needed to win, and it was Slovakia 2-0 Luxembourg)
95. Kazakhstan (they needed to win, and it was North Macedonia 1-1 Kazakhstan)

Luxembourg's game ended first.

 

Nobody can be eliminated in Concacaf tonight. Here are tomorrow's elimination scenarios:

The day starts with Seychelles vs. The Gambia in Mauritius, and both of them are eliminated. Then there are six games at the same time. Estonia hosts Moldova, with Estonia eliminated, and Moldova only able to qualify from the Nations League. Qualified Algeria hosts Uganda, and Uganda must win to have a chance at being one of the best four second place teams. Guinea vs. Botswana in Morocco and Somalia vs. Mozambique in Algeria are in the same group, and all four of them are eliminated. Group C ends with South Africa vs. Rwanda and Nigeria vs. Benin. Rwanda is eliminated, and the other three may or may not qualify. I think it makes sense to do scenarios by the outcome, not by the teams:

If Benin defeats Nigeria:
Benin qualifies, and South Africa and Nigeria are eliminated

If Benin draws with Nigeria, and South Africa draws or loses:
Benin qualifies, and South Africa and Nigeria are eliminated

If Benin draws with Nigeria, and South Africa wins by at least 3 goals:
South Africa qualifies, and Benin and Nigeria are eliminated

If Benin draws with Nigeria, and South Africa wins by 2 goals with at least as many goals scored as Benin:
South Africa qualifies, and Benin and Nigeria are eliminated. If Benin and South Africa tie in points, goal differential, and goals scored, South Africa wins the head-to-head tiebreaker.

If Benin draws with Nigeria, and South Africa wins by 1 goal or by 2 goals with fewer goals scored than Benin:
Benin qualifies, and South Africa and Nigeria are eliminated

If Nigeria defeats Benin by at least 2 goals or 1-0, and South Africa draws or loses:
Nigeria qualifies, and Benin and South Africa are eliminated. Nigeria winning 1-0 would make Nigeria and Benin are tied in points, goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head points, head-to-head goals, and Nigeria wins the head-to-head away goals tiebreaker

If Nigeria defeats Benin 2-1, and South Africa draws or loses:
Benin or Nigeria qualifies depending on the disciplinary points tiebreaker. The other one and South Africa are eliminated.

If Nigeria defeats Benin by 1 goal with at least 3 goals scored, and South Africa draws or loses:
Benin qualifies, and Nigeria and South Africa are eliminated. Nigeria winning by 1 goal with at least 3 goals scored would make Nigeria and Benin are tied in points, goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head points, head-to-head goals, and Benin wins the head-to-head away goals tiebreaker

If Nigeria defeats Benin and South Africa wins:
South Africa qualifies, Nigeria may or may not be one of the best four second place teams, and Benin is eliminated.

I hope I did that correctly. Two of them will be eliminated unless the last scenario happens.

Next is Qatar vs. United Arab Emirates:

If Qatar wins, Qatar qualifies, UAE plays second place from Group B in Round 5, and Oman is eliminated

If it is a draw, UAE qualifies, Qatar plays second place from Group B in Round 5, and Oman is eliminated.

If UAE wins 1-0, UAE qualifies, Oman plays second place from Group B in Round 5, and Qatar is eliminated. Oman wins the goals scored tiebreaker over Qatar.

If UAE wins 2-1, UAE qualifies, and the tie between Qatar and Oman is decided by disciplinary points, with one of them playing second place from Group B in Round 5, and the other team eliminated.

If UAE wins by 1 goal, and Qatar scores at least 2 goals, UAE qualifies Qatar plays second place from Group B in Round 5, and Oman is eliminated. Qatar wins the goals scored tiebreaker over Oman.

If UAE wins by more than 1 goal, UAE qualifies, Oman plays second place from Group B in Round 5, and Qatar is eliminated.

Then we have seven UEFA games at the same time. Andorra vs. Serbia, Italy vs. Israel, Portugal vs. Hungary, and Turkiye vs. Georgia cannot eliminate any of those teams. If Israel loses, they will be eliminated from the top two, and they will need a ton of help from other groups in order to make the Playoffs from the Nations League. If Wikipedia shows them as eliminated, I will check the other groups then.

Latvia will be eliminated if they do not win hosting England.

Ireland will be eliminated if they lose hosting Armenia, and Hungary wins in Portugal.

Bulgaria will be eliminated if they get fewer points at Spain than Turkiye does hosting Georgia.

Then there are five CAF games at the same time. Group B ends with DR Congo vs. Sudan and Senegal vs. Mauritania. Senegal has 21 points and +15. DR Congo has 19 points and +8. I am going to ignore the possibility of Senegal drawing and DR Congo winning by at least 7 goals to win the goal differenial tiebreaker. Here are the scenarios by outcome:

If Senegal wins or draws, and DR Congo wins:
Senegal qualifies, and DR Congo is one of the best four second place teams.

If Senegal wins or draws, and DR Congo draws or loses:
Senegal qualifies, and DR Congo is eliminated.

If Senegal loses, and DR Congo win:
DR Congo qualifies, and Senegal will probably be one of the best four second place teams. Senegal will not be one of the best four teams if they lose by many goals to have a worse goal differential than Niger, or Uganda wins at Algeria and Senegal and Uganda's margins combine to be at least 3. Since Senegal hosts Mauritania, it is not realistic for them to be eliminated.

If Senegal loses, and DR Congo draws or loses:
Senegal qualifies, and DR Congo is eliminated.

Cote d'Ivoire hosts Kenya, while Gabon hosts Burundi. Cote d'Ivoire leads Gabon by 1 point and 11 goal differential, so it is not realistic for Gabon to draw and win the group by Cote d'Ivoire losing by at least 11 goals. If Gabon wins and Cote d'Ivoire does not win, Gabon qualifies. Any other combination makes Cote d'Ivoire qualify. The second place team will be one of the best four second place teams. Morocco hosts Congo in a meaningless game.

Now to AFC's Group B, where Saudi Arabia hosts Iraq. Indonesia is eliminated, and neither Saudi Arabia nor Iraq will be. If Saudi Arabia wins or draws, they qualify, and Iraq plays second place from Group A in Round 5. If Iraq wins, they qualify, and Saudi Arabia plays second place from Group A in Round 5.

Concacaf has four games. Bermuda will be eliminated if they lose at Jamaica.

 

A website mistakenly said that Nicaragua is eliminated after their loss at Nicaragua. Nicaragua can still win tiebreakers to get to the interconfederatinal playoffs.

Including games that are not qualifiers, 94 teams play today, which is 45 percent of the members of FIFA, so the week of games ends with a lot of teams playing.

I wonder what the record is for largest margin of victory by an eliminated team. The Gambia leads Seychelles 7-0.

 

So with the 1st part of the last matchday of the CAF qualifiers starting soon (they'd have started when the post is up), I thought it'd be good to go in-depth about the chances of all remaining teams whose fate is still undecided and going group by group.

This is what the table for best runners-up looks like as of right now:
runners-up.png

GROUP A: Burkina Faso ended their qualifying campaign with 15 2nd-place points (and +6GD) and are currently 3rd in the 2nd place teams ranking.

For them to be eliminated at least 2 of these need to happen:
- DRC beats Sudan AND Senegal doesn't lose to Mauritania
- Nigeria beats Benin by at least 3 or 4 goals AND South Africa beats Rwanda
- Uganda beats Algeria by at least 3 or 4 goals

Prediction: They should feel pretty safe about qualifying to the playoffs.

GROUP B: Both DRC and Senegal can face elimination today. For DRC, it is simple: win or go home. A win can see them potentially (even if very unlikely) qualify directly over Senegal and at the very least go to the playoffs.

Senegal are very likely to qualify directly and a draw would at least guarantee them a playoff spot (if somehow DRC beats Sudan by 7/8+ goals). However in the case they somehow lose at home to Mauritania (and DRC beats Sudan), they can risk elimination if 1 of these happen:

- Nigeria beats Benin by 3 goals AND South Africa beats Rwanda
- Uganda beats Algeria by 3 goals

Prediction: Senegal qualify directly while DRC clinches a playoff spot.

GROUP C: The most complex group with 3 teams still fighting for survival.

Benin and South Africa cannot rank among the 4 best 2nd place team no matter what so they have to win the group or go home.

Benin is eliminated if:
- They lose to Nigeria
- They draw to Nigeria AND South Africa beats Rwanda by 2 goals (with a superior number of goals scored compared to Benin) or 3+ goals

South Africa is eliminated if:
- They don't win vs Rwanda
- They beat Rwanda AND (Benin beats Nigeria OR Nigeria beats Benin with a higher score than SA's win)

Nigeria can still qualify as one of the second best teams, but they're eliminated if 1 of the following happen:
- They don't win vs Benin
- They win by less than 3 goals AND DRC beats Sudan AND Senegal doesn't lose to Mauritania
- if DRC fails to beat Sudan, they can still be eliminated if they win by less than 3 goals AND Uganda beats Algeria with a higher score.

Prediction: South Africa qualifies directly to the WC while Nigeria and Benin are out.

GROUP D: Cameroon's campaign ended with 15 2nd place points (and +9GD). They should be pretty safe to qualify but they can still be eliminated if ALL of the following happened:

- DRC beats Sudan AND Senegal doesn't lose to Mauritania
- Nigeria beats Benin by at least 6+ goals AND South Africa beats Rwanda
- Uganda beats Algeria by at least 6+ goals.

Prediction: Cameroon are pretty safe when it comes to going to the playoffs.

GROUP E: Niger ended with 15 points and a +1GD which for now gives them the last playoffs spot available. However they can be eliminated if JUST 1 of the following happens:

- DRC beats Sudan AND Senegal doesn't lose by 5+ goals to Mauritania
- Nigeria beast Benin AND South Africa beats Rwanda
- Uganda beats Algeria

Prediction: Niger are very likely to be eliminated as I expect DRC to beat Sudan.

GROUP F: No possible elimination today. Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon will be playing for an automatic spot but whoever finishes 2nd is guaranteed to be in the playoffs.

Prediction: CIV qualifies directly while Gabon go to the playoffs.

GROUP G: Uganda currently sits at 12 points (+3 GD). They can theoretically still reach one of the 4 best runners-up spots but they'll be eliminated if 1 of the following happens:

- They don't beat Algeria
- They beat Algeria by less than 3 goals AND DRC beats Sudan AND Senegal doesn't lose to Mauritania
- If DRC fails to beat Sudan they can still be eliminated if they win by less than 3 goals AND Nigeria beats Benin by a higher score AND South Africa beats Rwanda

Prediction: Uganda should be eliminated today.

GROUP H & GROUP I are already decided with no more teams to be eliminated as both 2nd place Namibia and Madagascar are already out.

I might have missed some stuff but I think this is a pretty comprehensive view at what's at stake in today's games.

Edit: As I say this Uganda is actually leading 1-0 in Algeria.

 

With Nigeria and South Africa up 2-0, it looks like Benin will be eliminated, and will not qualify for the first time. Niger and Uganda are on track to be eliminated.

 

HT update:

Nigeria 2 - 0 Benin
South Africa 2 - 0 Rwanda
Algeria 0 - 1 Uganda

Benin, Niger and Uganda are currently eliminated.
South Africa is currently qualified to the WC.
Nigeria's fate is still undecided but they're currently qualified to the playoffs.

 

Benin would need to at least draw if they need to qualify. But with South Africa cruising to a comfortable win right now, it's looking like even a draw might not be enough.

 

And now Nigeria leads 3-0 dooming Benin even further.

 

Nigeria need to not concede and score one more goal to tie up a play off spot.

 

A YouTube video points out that the worst team in the FIFA Rankings, San Marino, could help themself make the Playoffs by losing their only remaining game because losing to Romania would help get Romania into the top two and make them not need a Playoff spot from the Nations League. San Marino plays on 18 November, which is the last day before the Playoffs, so when they start they will know the scenarios.

South Africa won, then Nigeria won, then Algeria 1-1 Uganda ended.

94. and 93. Benin and Niger (eliminated by Nigeria 4-0 Benin and South Africa 3-0 Rwanda)
92. Uganda (needed to win at Algeria by multiple goals because of other games, and it was Algeria 1-1 Uganda)

Gabon or Cote d'Ivoire from Group F, Cameroon, and Nigeria are going to Playoffs. Burkina Faso needs Senegal to lose hosting Mauritania or DR Congo to not win hosting Sudan. If Senegal wins or draws and DR Congo wins, Senegal qualifies, DR Congo goes to the Playoffs, and Burkina Faso is eliminated.

 

94. Benin
93. Niger

Both eliminated following the results of Nigeria/Benin and South Africa/Rwanda.

Algeria vs Uganda is still ongoing with a pen for Algeria.

 

92. Uganda

Algeria beat Uganda 2-1 after around 20 minutes of added time (lots of injuries) which eliminates Uganda as they couldn't rank among the top runners-up.

 

Not to nitpick but Algeria won vs Uganda...not that a draw would've mattered.

 

Qatar 1-0 UAE after around 70 minutes means Oman is currently the next team to be eliminated unless the UAE manage to win by 2 goals.

For Africa (and to add to what @EvanJ said), one of Senegal/DR Congo/Burkina Faso is gonna be eliminated tonight:

Senegal is eliminated if :
- They lose to Mauritania AND DRC beats Sudan.

DRC is eliminated if:
- They fail to beat Sudan

Burkina Faso is eliminated if:
- DRC beats Sudan AND Senegal does not lose to Mauritania

I said I expected Nigeria to be eliminated today but they managed to have their best performance with the backs against the wall which now puts BFA in a tough position.

 

I typed when the game was in stoppage time, and I never checked the final score. You're doing the right thing, not nitpicking. I make a file where I type things including what each team did the day they were eliminated, so I want to have the right results.

Qatar leads United Arab Emirates 1-0, which would eliminate Oman. So far 19 teams have been eliminated on a day in which they did not play, which includes Eritrea and Russia, who never played.

Edit: Qatar leads 2-0.

Edit: Saudi Arabia vs. Iraq started. When I posted the scenarios in chronological order, I thought that game started later. One of them will qualify, and the other will go to Round 5. Iraq's only World Cup was in 1986.

 

That's understandable because the game lasted at least 10 more minutes than it should've due to injuries to both Algeria's Gouiri and Uganda's GK Salim Magoola who had to be carried off field by the cart.

Qatar is leading 2-0 right now which condemns Oman, unless the UAE somehow scores 4 unanswered goals in the last 15 minutes (+stoppage time).

 

91. Oman

Eliminated following Qatar's 2-1 win over the UAE.

 

Qatar got a straight red in the 89th. UAE scored in the 90+8th to go down 1, and a win would have qualified them. The game lasted long enough for each team to get a yellow in the 90+15th, but UAE did not tie it.

Congratulations to Yemen's Nasser Al Gahwashi for scoring 5 goals in Yemen's 9-0 win over Brunei Darussalam in an Asian Cup Qualifier.

If UEFA's scores stay the same, Latvia and Bulgaria will be eliminated.

Edit: CAF's halftime scores include DR Congo 1-0 Sudan and Senegal 0-0 Mauritania. Those outcomes would qualify Senegal, said DR Congo to Playoffs, and eliminate Burkina Faso.

After the 13 qualifiers in progress end, there is a break until Concacaf's four qualifiers tonight.

 

Mane scored from a FK right before the end of the 1st half to give Senegal a 1-0 lead.

 

I know. I want to edit my previous post, but I cannot because it is over 30 minutes ago. Now Burkina Faso is more likely to be eliminated. I wish BigSoccer let users edit posts for longer.

Edit: If UEFA's scores remain the same, England and Portugal will be the first two teams to qualify.

 

One of those things happened and with less than 10 minutes to go one other is still a chance.

 

89. and 90. Bulgaria and Latvia
There was Spain 4-0 Bulgaria and Latvia 0-5 England. I do not know which game ended first.

88. Burkina Faso
They were eliminated by DR Congo and Senegal winning. Among second place teams, they were eliminated with a goal differential 1 worse than Nigeria, who survived. Burkina Faso, Niger, Madagascar, Uganda, and Namibia are the eliminated second place teams.

There is not a draw for the Playoffs, so the matchups are known immediately. Gabon (best) plays Nigeria (fourth best), and DR Congo (second best) plays Cameroon (third best). The games are in Morocco on 13 November and 16 November. Those teams must win at least three rounds to qualify. After the CAF Playoffs, they have to win one interconfederational playoff round if they are one of the top two of six in the FIFA Rankings, and two rounds if they are not one of the top two.

 

You are right. I looked at the order of the second place teams, and it produces the same matchups either way. It means that they did not wait for the FIFA Rankings including this month's games. I wonder what team won the most two leg series or individual games to qualify for a World Cup.

Teams that want a bye in the first playoff round should hope that Panama does not go to the playoffs because they are 29th in the FIFA Rankings. Panama could end today in first, one of the best two second place teams, the worst second place team, or third.

We are done looking at tables for groups with six or more teams.

Yesterday I said that Bermuda will be eliminated if they lose at Jamaica. Bermuda will also be eliminated if they draw and Curacao vs. Trinidad and Tobago is a draw. The latter game starts one hour earlier. In that case, Curacao would have 8, Jamaica would have 7, Trinidad and Tobago would have 5, and Bermuda would have 1 with two games left. Bermuda could not get 8, and Trinidad and Tobago vs. Jamaica would make one of them and Curacao get at least 8.