211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

112, 111, and 110. Cyprus, Malta, and Montenegro
Cyprus needed to win and got 2-2 hosting Bosnia and Herzegovina. Malta needed to win and lost 0-4 hosting Netherlands. Montenegro would be eliminated if they lost and Czech Republic vs. Croatia was a draw, and that happened with Faroe Islands 4-0 Montenegro and Czech Republic 0-0 Croatia. I do not know what order the games ended in.

Viking lord, thank you. Here are the second place teams by total points and how they did against sixth place:

1. Gabon: 19
Won both games against sixth place Seychelles, who lost every game, Gabon could pass Cote d'Ivoire for first if Cote d'Ivoire does not win hosting Kenya

2. Madagascar: 19
Won both games against Chad, who clinched sixth, Madagascar trails Ghana by 3 points and 8 goal differential with 1 game left, Madagascar is at Mali, and Ghana hosts Comoros

3. Burkina Faso: 18
Clinched second, won both games against Djibouti, who clinched sixth

4. Cameroon: 18
4 points against Eswatini, Cameroon can finish first and Eswatini can finish fifth, but in the likely event that Cabo Verde wins hosting Eswatini, Cabo Verde will be first, Cameroon will be second, and Eswatini will be sixth

5. Uganda: 18
Won both games against Somalia, who clinched sixth, Mozambique trails Uganda by 3 points and 10 goal differential with 1 game left, Uganda is at qualified Algeria, Mozambique plays sixth place Somalia in Algeria

6. DR Congo: 16
Won both games against sixth place South Sudan and fifth place Mauritania, won one game and has one game left against fourth place Togo, who could finish last, but that is very unlikely because Mauritania and South Sudan have to play first place Senegal, Senegal has not clinched first, but their easy games mean they will probably stay above DR Congo

7. Namibia: 15
Namibia, Liberia, and Malawi and Equatorial Guinea if their game is made up can finish second, but Namibia is the only one that could be one of the best four second place teams, and they won both games against Sao Tome and Principe, who lost every game

8. South Africa: 14
Won one game against sixth place Zimbabwe and has one game left against Zimbabwe, four teams could finish second

9. Niger: 12
No sixth place team

Here are how many points the second place teams have excluding games against sixth place teams:

Cameroon: 14
Gabon: 13
Madagascar: 13
Uganda: 12
Niger: 12
Burkina Faso: 12
South Africa: 11
DR Congo: 10
Namibia: 9

I did not check goal differential, so teams with the same amount of points may be in the wrong order. DR Congo and Namibia are least likely to qualify.

 

Here are tomorrow's elimination scenarios:

CAF's first session has five games, including all three games in Group B. Sudan will be eliminated if DR Congo wins at Togo, DR Congo draws and Sudan draws hosting Mauritania, or Sudan loses. Togo, Mauritania, and South Sudan are eliminated.

In Group F, one Matchday 9 game was played. At the same time, Gabon plays Gambia in Kenya, and Cote d'Ivoire plays Seychelles in Mauritius. Gabon cannot be eliminated, and they have a small chance at passing Cote d'Ivoire for first. Kenya, Gambia, Burundi, and Seychelles are eliminated.

CAF's second session has four games, including all three games in Group C.

Lesotho will be eliminated if:
They do not win playing Nigeria in South Africa
South Africa wins hosting Zimbabwe in what was supposed to be a home game for Zimbabwe, and Benin wins at Rwanda
South Africa draws and Rwanda wins

Rwanda will be eliminated if:
They lose to Benin and South Africa wins or draws
They draw, South Africa wins, and Nigeria wins

Nigeria will be eliminated if:
They lose to Lesotho, Benin wins or draws, and South Africa wins or draws
They draw, Benin wins, and South Africa wins

I had to look at who plays who on Matchday 10, and I might not be perfect for that group. If Nigeria beats Lesotho, Nigeria will not be eliminated, and Lesotho will be eliminated.

Group H has a meaningless game, as qualified Tunisia hosts pointless Sao Tome and Principe in what was supposed to be a home game for Sao Tome and Principe.

UEFA has eight games. In the first game, Kazakhstan will be eliminated if they do not win hosting Liechtenstein. Then there are seven games at the same time. Group J's other game of Belgium vs. North Macedonia cannot eliminate anybody. Group A and Group D have four teams and play Matchday 3 of 6, so nobody can be eliminated. Group I has Norway host Israel, Estonia host Italy, and last place Moldova does not play. Moldova cannot finish in the top two, but they can make the Playoffs from the Nations League. Estonia will be eliminated if they do not defeat Italy.

Sudan, Lesotho, Rwanda, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and Estonia are six possible eliminations.

 

I read that Equatorial Guinea has to forfeit and pay a fine of millions for not going to Malawi. There were logistical problems, and the Equatorial Guinea players refused to travel that close to when the game would have been. Both teams are eliminated.

In the second half, Sudan vs. Mauritania is 0-0, and DR Congo leads 1-0 at Togo. Sudan needs more points than DR Congo, so a DR Congo win eliminates Sudan. In addition to what I posted yesterday, Sudan could also survive if they win, DR Congo wins, and Senegal loses at South Sudan, but that was extremely unlikely, and Senegal leads 4-0.

Kazakhstan must win, and they lead Liechtenstein 2-0 in the first half.

 

109. Sudan (they were eliminated by Togo 0-1 DR Congo)

 

DRC's win officially eliminate both Liberia and Namibia as they cannot get enough points to get into the top 4 runners-ups no matter what.

Namibia has 9 points and Liberia 8 while you need at least 13 to advance to the playoffs (points excluding the last placed team in each group).

 

Thank you. I already had Liberia as eliminated because they could not be one of the best four second place teams, but I did not have Namibia. Therefore:

109 and 108. Sudan and Namibia (both eliminated by Togo 0-1 DR Congo)

With games almost over, it looks like Lesotho and Rwanda will be eliminated, and South Africa, Nigeria, and Benin will start their last game with a chance to win their group. Although it did not have an elimination scenario I posted earlier, Rwanda would be eliminated with a draw, draw between South Africa and Zimbabwe, and Nigeria defeating Lesotho. In that case Rwanda could get 15 points, but one of Benin (15) or Nigeria (14) would get more than 15 because they end against each other. Then Rwanda allowed a goal, so they need to score 2 goals unless they get help from another game that is in stoppage time.

Update:

107. Lesotho (Lesotho 1-2 Nigeria in South Africa)
Lesotho ended by shooting wide with the goal open. They woud have been eliminated with a draw, but a draw would have hurt Nigeria and helped South Africa and Benin. That was the first Group C game to end.

South Africa got a 0-0 with Zimbabwe, which is great for Nigeria and Benin. That means Rwanda must score twice in stoppage time to survive.

106. Rwanda (eliminated by Rwanda 0-1 Benin when Benin scored with their only shot on goal)

FIFA has 211 members (including teams that did not attempt to qualify), so a majority of them are eliminated.

CAF had 5-0, 6-0, and 7-0 games today.

I previously said that Estonia could be eliminated today, but their group plays tomorrow.

 

If Eswatini finishes above Mauritius in their group, and both Cameroon and Cape Verde win their final matches, Cameroon will drop to 12 second-place points. Namibia is still alive, but barely.

 

You're right, Namibia is still "mathematically" alive even if they're realistically already gone.

Edit: I think you meant both teams lose rather than win.

@EvanJ My fault but I shouldn't have included Namibia.

Just for fun, here is all that needs to happen for Namibia to qualify to the playoffs:

- Burkina Faso loses to Ethiopia
- South Africa draws to Rwanda AND Nigeria doesn't beat Benin OR South Africa loses to Rwanda AND Nigeria loses to Benin
- Cape Verde loses to Eswatini AND Cameroon loses to Angola AND Libya beats Mauritius
- Niger loses to Zambia
- Uganda loses to Algeria
- Namibia beats Tunisia

So all of these need to happen at the same time while Namibia makes up the GD compared to their competition. It's pretty much impossible but still possible.

 

Eswatini must win at Cabo Verde to have a chance at not finishing last. Eswatini has the same goal differential as Mauritius, which means that if Eswatini wins and Mauritius draws hosting Libya, Eswatini will have a better goal differential, and Mauritius will be last. Therefore Namibia needs an Eswatini win, Mauritius draw or loss, and Cameroon win hosting Angola. I was too early when I said that a majority of members of FIFA are eliminated.

That makes:
109. Sudan (no longer eliminated by the same game that eliminated Namibia)
108. Lesotho
107. Rwanda

I was previously wrong about what UEFA groups play today. I said that Estonia could be eliminated today, but they play tomorrow. No more teams can be eliminated today. UEFA and AFC play tomorrow, and here are the elimination scenarios:

The first game is Latvia vs. Andorra. Andorra will be eliminated if they do not win, or if Serbia vs. Albania later has a winner. Then there are Hungary vs. Armenia and Norway vs. Israel, and none of them can be eliminated. Then to AFC's first game, which is United Arab Emirates vs. Oman in Qatar. The first game was scoreless between Oman and Qatar, and the last game has Qatar host United Arab Emirates. Neither United Arab Emirates nor Oman can be eliminated. In a single round-robin group of three that eliminates one team, I do not know if any team can be eliminated before the last game unless they lose their first two games and have the third matchday off. Bulgaria vs. Turkiye, Portugal vs. Ireland, and Spain vs. Georgia are Matchday 3 of 6, and they cannot eliminate anybody. Serbia vs. Albania cannot eliminate either of them, but it will eliminate Andorra if they win and Serbia vs. Albania has a winner. Estonia will be eliminated if they do not win hosting Italy, Finally, we go back to AFC's Iraq vs. Indonesia in Saudi Arabia. The first game was Saudi Arabia 3-2 Indonesia (Indonesia was listed first, but I typed them second because Saudi Arabia hosts the whole group), and the last game is Saudi Arabia vs. Iraq. Indonesia will be eliminated with a loss. If it is a draw, Indonesia will advance to Round 5 if Iraq loses to Saudi Arabia by multiple goals, Iraq loses to Saudi Arabia by 1 goal with fewer goals scored than Indonesia, or Iraq loses to Saudi Arabia by 1 goal with the same amount of goals scored as Indonesia and Indonesia wins a later tiebreaker. Andorra and Estonia will probably be eliminated, and Indonesia might be eliminated.

 

Just a slight correction but Cameroon needs to lose to Angola to stay on 12 points (plus all the other results that need to happen for Namibia to go to the playoffs).

 

Thank you for the correction.

106. Andorra
Andorra led for 8 minutes and can be happy they did not lose, but they were eliminated with Latvia 2-2 Andorra. Now a majority of members of FIFA are eliminated.

 

I don't know if they were mentioned and when the exact moment it happened was but Mozambique is also officially out even if they somehow finish 2nd.

They're on 12 points and -6 GD and cannot improve since their last game is against guaranteed last place finisher Somalia. However, groups B, F & I runners-ups are guaranteed to end with at least 13 points and group E's runner-up will end up with 12 points +2 GD at worse which means Mozambique has no more chances to go to the playoffs, no matter what happens.

 

Thank you.

109 and 108. Sudan and Mozambique
Sudan was eliminated by Togo 0-1 DR Congo. Mozambique was eliminated by that game and wins by Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon at the same time. Mozambique was eliminated after Sudan unless Togo vs. DR Congo was the last of the three games to end, in which case they were eliminated by the same game. Since I do not know the order the games ended, I call it a two-way tie.

107. Lesotho
106. Rwanda
105. Andorra
104. Estonia (they needed to win hosting Italy, and it was Estonia 1-3 Italy)

I was going back and forth, and it turns out that a majority of members of FIFA were eliminated by yesterday.

Iraq leads Indonesia 1-0. If Indonesia loses, they are eliminated, but I have to leave, so I will not find out the score until later.

 

In Asia only one more team will be eliminated this window. Oman are hanging on but the outcome is out of their hands. If UAE beat Qatar by 2 goals Qatar get eliminated. If its 1-0 to UAE Qatar gets eliminated. A 2-1 UAE win leaves Qatar and OMAN level on goal difference, goals scored and head to head so we go to the complicated tie breakers. UAE need a draw to go to the world cup. A loss sees them go to AFC round 5.

 

Indonesia needed a win or draw against Iraq in Saudi Arabia, and Iraq won 1-0.

In CAF's Group C on Tuesday, second place South Africa hosts eliminated Rwanda, and third place Nigeria hosts first place Benin. If South Africa wins, and Nigeria wins 2-1, South Africa will win the group. In that case Benin and Nigeria will be tied on points, goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head points, head-to-head goal differential, head-to-head goals scored, and head-to-head away goals, which will make second place determined by disciplinary points. If there is a two-team tie and the teams are tied in head-to-head goal differential, they will be tied on head-to-head goals scored. Head-to-head goals scored can only be different if a tie has at least three teams.

With Indonesia eliminated, four of the five most populated and at least six of the ten most populated countries will not be in the World Cup. China, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh also failed, and Russia is suspended. USA and Mexico did not have to qualify, and Brazil qualified. The other one of the ten most populated countries is Nigeria.

Here are tomorrow's scenarios. There are fifteen games, with seven in CAF, and eight in UEFA. The day starts with one game in each confederation at the same time. Eliminated Cyprus hosts San Marino, who can qualify for the Playoffs from the Nations League, and their World Cup Qualifiers are irrelevant. In CAF's Group E, which has five teams, Zambia hosts Niger. If Zambia wins, they finish second, and Niger is eliminated. If Niger wins or draws, they finish second, and Zambia is eliminated. Even if Zambia wins, they need help from Eswatini passing Mauritius in Group D so Cameroon has fewer points not against sixth, and help from Burkina Faso losing, Uganda losing, and South Africa losing or drawing.

Then there are four games at the same time. The CAF game is Chad vs. Central African Republic, and both of them are eliminated. Faroe Islands will be eliminated if they lose hosting Czech Republic, or they draw and Croatia does not lose to Gibraltar later in the day. Since Croatia will not lose to Gibraltar, Faroe Islands must win. Netherlands vs. Finland cannot eliminate either of them. Belarus will be eliminated if they lose at Scotland.

Then UEFA has four games at the same time. The aforementioned Croatia vs. eliminated Gibraltar will not eliminate anybody unless Faroe Islands vs. Czech Republic is a draw and Croatia wins. Greece will be eliminated if they lose at Denmark and Scotland wins earlier. Lithuania hosts Poland. Lithuania is eliminated, and Poland cannot be eliminated. Romania vs. Austria cannot eliminate either of them.

Fifteen minutes after four UEFA games start, five CAF games start. Burkina Faso hosts eliminated Ethiopia. I did not check the other groups to find out if Burkina Faso can be eliminated from being one of the best four second place teams, and they will probably beat Ethiopia anyway. Djibouti plays Sierra Leone in Morocco, and both of them are eliminated. Qualified Egypt hosts eliminated Guinea-Bissau. Ghana cannot be eliminated when they host eliminated Comoros. In the same group, eliminated Mali hosts Madagascar. Ghana leads Madagascar by 3 points and 8 goal differential, so Madagascar's only chance at first is winning by a lot while Ghana loses by a lot.

The possible eliminations are Zambia, Niger, Faroe Islands, Belarus, and Greece.

 

You need to add Namibia to the list of teams that could be eliminated today.

Their fate depends on the result of Niger vs Zambia. If Niger wins or draws they'll be officially eliminated but if Zambia wins they'll keep their 0,1% chance of going to the playoffs..I guess.

The maximum amounts of points Namibia can get is 12, however groups B, F & I runner-ups are guaranteed to get at least 13 points and a Niger win/draw would see them get to 13/15.

 

102. Zambia
101. Namibia

Technically eliminated at the same time following Niger's 1-0 win over Zambia.

Zambia finished 4th in their group, thus eliminated, while Namibia can no longer qualify since every team would need at least 13 points to advance and Namibia can only get up to 12.

 

You're right. It's nice to be done with every meaningful game in CAF's group of five. So 100 teams are left. When we get down to 96, it will mean that half of them qualified or will qualify. CAF has 18 teams left, so 5 more will be eliminated this month. One group has three teams left, seven groups have two teams left, and one group has Tunisia qualified and everybody else including second place Namibia eliminated.

Shocking, not only did Faroe Islands not lose, they defeated Czech Republic 2-1 to tie Czech Republic on points and goal differential and be behind on goals scored. However, Faroe Islands has no chance because Czech Republic will do better hosting Gibraltar than Faroe Islands does at Croatia. Faroe Islands has the last matchday off, and they will be alive until Czech Republic hosts Gibraltar then.

100. Belarus (they needed a draw or win at Scotland, and Scotland won 2-1)
With Scotland up 1-0, both teams lost a goal to VAR. Scotland scored again. Belarus scored in the 90+6th to not get shut out, but they could not score again to stay alive.

 

99. Greece.

With their loss to Denmark and Scotland's win earlier, they're seven points away from those two with two remaining matches.

 

Nope, England won their NL group.

 

99. Greece needed to win or draw at Denmark, and it was Denmark 3-1 Greece.

Madagascar needs giant help from other groups. They need DR Congo to lose by at least 4 hosting eliminated Sudan, Cameroon to lose hosting eliminated Angola, Eswatini to win at first place Cabo Verde, and Mauritius to draw or lose hosting Libya. The last two of those will make Eswatini pass Mauritius so Cameroon has fewer points against teams fifth or higher. The three games in Cameroon's group is tomorrow, so Madagascar will be eliminated then, and DR Congo plays on Tuesday.

Here are the elimination scenarios for tomorrow. First CAF plays four games at the same time. Qualified Tunisia hosts eliminated Namibia, and the other three games are between two eliminated teams.

Then CAF plays four games at the same time, including Cameroon vs. Angola, Cabo Verde vs. Eswatini, and Mauritius vs. Libya that I already mentioned. If Cameroon wins, and Cabo Verde draws or loses, Cameroon finishes first, otherwide Cabo Verde finishes first. If Cameroon does not win, they want Cabo Verde to win so that Eswatini finishes sixth. If Cameroon loses, Eswatini wins (which is extremely unlikely), and Mauritius draws or loses, Cameroon is eliminated. Cameroon and Madagascar can both be eliminated by that session, which also has eliminated Lesotho play guaranteed to finish sixth Zimbabwe.

UEFA has eight games at the same time. In Group A, Luxembourg will be eliminated if they do not win at Slovakia, and Northern Ireland hosts Germany. In Group B, Sweden will be eliminated from the top two if they lose hosting Kosovo and Slovenia wins hosting Switzerland, but Sweden can make the Playoffs from the Nations League. In Group D, Azerbaijan will be eliminated if they lose to Ukraine in Poland, and Iceland wins hosting France. In Group J, Kazakhstan will be eliminated if they do not win at North Macedonia, or if Wales vs. Belgium has a winner.

Cameroon, Madagascar, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan are five possible eliminations.

Concacaf's Group C plays at night. Last place Nicaragua cannot be eliminated.

 

Not mentioned yet but...

98. Libya

They were eliminated after Burkina Faso's win over Ethiopia. Even if they were to do a miracle and finish 2nd in their group, they can only get to 12 points but you'll need at least 13 to advance to the playoffs.

Idk which game ended 1st between Burkina Faso/Ethiopia and Denmark/Greece but the former started 15 minutes later so I'm gonna assume Greece was eliminated first.

Edit: I checked back and they were actually eliminated following Niger's win over Zambia... so the list should be :

102. Zambia
101. Namibia
100. Libya
(All 3 eliminated at the same time)
99. Belarus
98. Greece

 

97. Madagascar

Cameroon's 0-0 draw to Angola (plus Eswatini's loss in Cape Verde) means they'll have 15 points which is the minimum amount of points you'll need to rank in the 4 best 2nd placed teams.

Madagascar's campaign already ended with 13 points so obviously they can't reach 15.