211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

Nigeria defeated Rwanda 1-0, but Nigeria is still in bad shape. Tomorrow's only game is Comoros vs. Central African Republic. Comoros cannot be eliminated, and Central African Republic is eliminated. No more eliminations will happen until Monday 8 September or Tuesday 9 September. The only possible elimination I found on 8 September is that Guinea-Bissau will be eliminated in the unlikely event that they lose hosting Djibouti. After the games, I might check if any other teams can still finish second, but are eliminated because they cannot be one of the best four second place teams.

 

130. Liechtenstein (they needed a win or draw at North Macedonia, and North Macedonia won 5-0)

That was UEFA's first elimination.

Tomorrow (8 September) in Group L, Gibraltar will be eliminated if:
They draw hosting Faroe Islands and Croatia wins hosting Montenegro or
They lose hosting Faroe Islands

On Tuesday (9 September) in Group K, Andorra will be eliminated if:
Serbia wins hosting England or
Serbia draws hosting England and Albania wins hosting Latvia
Andorra has off.

Moldova and San Marino can get eliminated from the top two this month, but they can go to playoffs as a Nations League group winner.

 

A YouTube video says that Zimbabwe is eliminated, and Wikipedia agrees, but I am not counting eliminations of teams that cannot be one of the best four second place teams until it is announced how to handle the group of five. Zimbabwe is likely to be eliminated from finishing second tomorrow, so I might not have them in the official order of eliminations, but they will not be an off the field elimination if how to handle the group of five is announced before October's games.

With the same issue of how to handle the group of five, Wikipedia says Zambia is eliminated after they lost 0-2 hosting Morocco today, but I am not listing them. Zambia has 6 points, and the best they can do is second place with 12 from a group of five. It is impossible for four groups to clinch that their second place team will have more than 12 points excluding points against the last place team by the end of tomorrow.

If Tanzania wins their last two games and is eliminated because their group had fewer teams, it will be unfair. Comoros and Mozambique are second place teams, and if Tanzania and them drop the same amount of points in the rest of the games, Tanzania will have the most points excluding points against the sixth place teams.

 

Here are tomorrow's elimination scenarios without thinking about if a team can finish second but not be one of the best four second place teams:

Group A:
Ethiopia will be eliminated if they draw or lose at Sierra Leone, or if Burkina Faso wins hosting Egypt.
Sierra Leone will be eliminated if they draw or lose hosting Ethiopia and Burkina Faso wins hosting Egypt.
Guinea-Bissau will be eliminated if Burkina Faso wins hosting Egypt. Guinea-Bissau won 2-0 hosting Djibouti today.
If Burkina Faso wins hosting Egypt, at least two teams will be eliminated, and three will be eliminated if Sierra Leone draws or loses, in which case Egypt and Burkina Faso will clinch the top two in some order with Egypt leading by 2 points.

Group B: No possible eliminations

Group C:
Lesotho will be eliminated if they lose at Benin.
Rwanda will be eliminated if they lose at Zimbabwe, Benin wins hosting Lesotho, and Nigeria wins at South Africa. In that case Rwanda could catch Benin or Nigeria, but not both of them because they play in October.

Group D:
Angola will be eliminated if they lose or draw hosting Mauritius, or if Cameroon wins at Cabo Verde.

Group E:
There are five teams. Today had Zambia 0-2 Morocco.
Niger will be eliminated if they lose at Tanzania.
Wikipedia says Zambia is eliminated because they cannot be one of the best four second place teams, but I did not count them as eliminated. They will be eliminated from the top two if Tanzania wins hosting Niger, in which case Tanzania will clinch second and cannot move up or down in October. Morocco won the group.

Group F:
Burundi will be eliminated if they draw or lose at The Gambia, or if Gabon wins hosting Cote d'Ivoire, in which case Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon will clinch the top two in some order.

Group G: No possible eliminations, as all teams played today without any eliminations.

Group H: No possible eliminations, as there were two games today, and tomorrow's game cannot eliminated anybody.

Group I: No possible eliminations, as all teams played yesterday or today without any eliminations.

In CONMEBOL, Venezuela leads Bolivia by 1 point and 12 goal differential, so Bolivia needs to win hosting Brazil, and have Venezuela draw or lose hosting Colombia. One of Venezuela or Bolivia will be eliminated, and the other one will join New Caledonia and four teams to be determined in the interconfederational playoffs.

 

Ethiopia eliminated

🇸🇱 2-0 🇪🇹

Ethiopia is eliminated from #FIFAWorldCup Qualifying.

Sierra Leone continue to hang around, just two points behind Burkina Faso - who they face next month. If BFA loses to Egypt today, that will be a direct fight for second place in October.

— The International Window (@windowintlpod) September 9, 2025

 

129. Ethiopia (they needed to win at Sierra Leone, and Sierra Leone won 2-0)

Tanzania 0-1 Niger and Zimbabwe 0-1 Rwanda guaranteed that Niger and Rwanda will not be eliminated today.

 

CAF's second set of games are at halftime. Guinea-Bissau and Angola could be eliminated, but they will survive if the scores stay the same.

 

CAF's second set of games did not eliminate anybody. In CAF's last five games today and this month, Lesotho will be eliminated if they draw or lose at Benin. I previously typed that they would only be eliminated with a loss. If they draw, they need Benin to get two losses or a loss and a draw in October. Benin plays Rwanda and Nigeria in October, and if one or both of them beats Benin, that team would finish above Lesotho if Lesotho draws today, so Lesotho must win. Lesotho and Burundi will probably be eliminated today, and Angola will probably survive.

Zimbabwe lost today, which would have eliminated them if they were not already eliminated. Based on not being able to be one of the best four second place teams, FIFA listed Zimbabwe as eliminated before today. I do not know which game ended earlier on 5 September between them and Djibouti. Here are teams renumbered:

133. and 134. Djibouti and Zimbabwe
132. Togo
131. Mauritania
130. The Gambia
129. Liechtenstein
128. Ethiopia

Benin vs. Lesotho is delayed. The Gambia vs. Burundi was interrupted and resumed. The first goal of the game was just a The Gambia penalty kick. Angola is 1-1 at halftime, and they must win to survive.

In UEFA:

Group I:
Moldova will be eliminated from the top two if they lose at Norway, but Moldova could still make the playoffs from the Nations League.

Group K:
Andorra will be eliminated from the top two if Serbia wins hosting England, or if Serbia draws and Albania wins hosting Latvia. Andorra has off today. Andorra cannot make the playoffs from the Nations League.

 

127. Burundi (they needed to win at The Gambia, and The Gambia won 2-0)

Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon clinched the top two in Group F in some order, which is the first group that did that. Group F has four eliminated teams.

Angola survived.

In a game that started late, Benin lead 3-0 hosting Lesotho, and Lesotho will be eliminated if they lose.

Serbia 0-5 England let Andorra survive. Norway won 11-1 hosting Moldova. San Marino, who is last in the FIFA Rankings, has not allowed 11 goals since 2 September 2011.

Bosnia and Herzegovina leads Group H, but Wikipedia points out that they cannot make the playoffs from the Nations League, and I tried to find out why. They are the 26th and final listed team, which includes the 14 group winners and other 12 teams from League A. In Group H, San Marino cannot finish in the top two. Group I has four teams listed, so at least two will finish outside the top two. Estonia is the only team in Group I not on the Nations League list, and they do not have a realistic chance at the top two, so two teams on the Nations League list will finish outside the top two, not three teams. In Group J, Wales, North Macedonia, and Belgium are listed, so at least one will finish outside the top two. A team is unable to make the playoffs from the Nations League if at least four teams higher on the Nations League list will need a playoff spot that way, and I named one from Group H, two from Group I, and one from Group J. Groups A through F played two of six games, so every team could finish in every spot. Bosnia and Herzegovina will finish in the top two if they win hosting Romania.

 

Switzerland are also eliminated from getting to the playoffs through the Nations League. Not that they're likely to need it.

 

The Nations League list has 15 teams in the top two, four teams that would get playoff spots from the Nations League, five teams that could get playoff spots from the Nations League but would not as of now, and two teams that cannot get playoff spots from the Nations League.

126. Lesotho (they needed to win or draw at Benin, and Benin won 4-0)

16 teams were eliminated this month. 86 members of FIFA are eliminated or did not start.

 

125. Venezuela.
Lost to Colombia while Bolivia pulled off the upset against Brazil.

 

The scores were Bolivia 1-0 Brazil and Venezuela 3-6 Colombia. Bolivia goes to the interconfederational playoff after allowing over twice as many goals as they scored. Flash Scores says that Brazil changed nine players from last time. The goal was a penalty kick, but Bolivia dominated statistics, so they did more things right than their goal. Venezuela led 2-1, but Luis Suarez scored 4 goals in 25 minutes plus halftime, showing that the Uruguayan Luis Suarez is not the only Luis Suarez who can score. Venezuela and Colombia combined for 9 goals without any cards.

60 teams will be eliminated in October or November.

 

Where does Gibraltar’s elimination land? They lost to the Faroe Islands yesterday, and Croatia beat Montenegro

 

I am disappointed in myself that I missed that. They were the only team eliminated on 8 September, so I did not need to check what time the game was. That makes:

128. Gibraltar
127. Ethiopia
126. Burundi
125. Lesotho
124. Venezuela

I previously said "60 teams will be eliminated in October or November." It will be 59 teams.

Here are tomorrow's scenarios (8 October):

The first session of CAF games includes all three games from Group D. Angola must win at Eswatini, have Cameroon lose or draw at Mauritius, and have Libya lose or draw hosting first place Cabo Verde. Angola must pass Cameroon and Libya.

Also in that session, in Group A Guinea-Bissau must win against Ethiopia in Rwanda. If Guinea-Bissau wins, later they need Burkina Faso to draw or lose against Sierra Leone in Liberia. Guinea-Bissau must pass Burkina Faso and Sierre Leone.

In CAF's second session in Group I Mali must win at Chad and have Comoros win or draw against Madagascar in Cote d'Ivoire. Mali must pass Comoros and Madagascar.

In CAF's third and final session, in Group E Zambia must win at Tanzania. If Tanzania wins, Niger will be eliminated if they lose to Congo in Burkina Faso, in which case Tanzania clinches second. That is the group with five teams because Eritrea withdrew, and there has not been an announcement about comparing second place teams when second place in that group will have two fewer games than the other eight second place teams.

I did not check if any of those games can guarantee that a second place team cannot be one of the best four second place teams.

The only other confederation that plays tomorrow is AFC, which has two games, and nobody will be eliminated. They have two groups of three that have each team play both opponents once at the same site.

 

With 70-something minutes played, all four games are going in a way that would eliminate teams. Angola needs the outcome of three games to change, including them trailing 2-1 at Eswatini. I hope I pay attention to know the order the games end in.

Edit:
123. Angola (they got a 2-2 draw at Eswatini when they needed to win, and even if they won, Cameroon would have eliminated them a couple of minutes later)
122. Guinea-Bissau (they needed to beat Ethiopia and lost 1-0)

 

Oman - Qatar
0 - 0

I don't think Qatar will qualify for this World Cup. But who knows ...

 

Comoros and Mali (simultaneously) & Sierra Leone bye bye.

 

125. Venezuela
124. Angola
123. Guinea-Bissau
122, 121, 120, 119, 118, 117, 116, and 115. Mali, Comoros, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Botswana, Liberia, Malawi, and Equatorial Guinea
Mali won, but Madagascar beat Comoros to stay 4 points above Mali with 1 game left, and Comoros needed a win or draw to survive. Thank you for pointing out Comoros and Sierra Leone. Because I was not thinking about Sierra Leone being eliminated, I did not find out if their game ended before or after Comoros lost. Cameroon's win and then Burkina Faso's win guaranteed that Guinea, Botswana, Liberia, Malawi, and Equatorial Guinea cannot be one of the best four second place teams. I wonder if it is the first World Cup Qualifier that ever eliminated six teams. I renumbered earlier teams because Lesotho's loss to South Africa in March was changed to a forfeit win because South Africa used an ineligible player, which keeps Lesotho alive. They are in fifth, and they cannot be one of the best four second place teams, but they can win Group C. If I had not checked Wikipedia, I would not have known about Guinea, Botswana, Liberia, Malawi, and Equatorial Guinea. Today is the first day that eliminated at least ten teams since March 29, 2022 eliminated eleven teams in playoffs for World Cup 2022, and Niger and Zambia could be eliminated later today.

Nobody can be eliminated from that. In AFC's second game, I am rooting for Indonesia against Saudi Arabia. Indonesia toook the lead with an 11th minute penalty kick, but Saudi Arabia leads 2-1 at halftime. AFC has two groups of three that qualify their winner, and the second place teams play two legs in November that sends the winner to the interconfederational playoffs in March.

 

Man, what a disappointment with Mali. They had so much talent on paper.

 

Man thats been the case for Mali for a long time now.. really. ever since they had Mohamadou Diarra(Real Madrid), Seydou Keita(Barcelona), and Franck Kanoute(Sevilla/Tottenham) together on a team and accomplished zilch.

 

114. Tanzania

The scores Tanzania 0-1 Zambia and Niger 3-1 Congo. I was thinking about the possibility of Niger and Zambia being eliminated while missing Tanzania in that group, and I am not thinking about what Tanzania needed to stay alive considering that Zambia hosts Niger to on the last matchday. Tanzania has the last matchday off because they would have played Eritrea, who withdrew. On the last matchday, Zambia will finish second if they win hosting Niger, and Niger will finish second with a win or draw.

Today's only remaining games are friendlies. Here are scenarios for tomorrow 9 October 2025:

CAF starts with Burundi vs. Kenya, both of whom are eliminated, and then has five games at the same time that combine to have five possible eliminations:

In Group G, Botswana will be eliminated if they do not win hosting Uganda, or Mozambique does not lose hosting Guinea. Guinea will be eliminated if they do not win, or Uganda wins. Algeria hosts eliminated Somalia in what was supposed to be Somalia's home game. If Algeria gets at least as many points as Uganda and Mozambique, Algeria qualifies. Algeria will probably win to qualify.

In Group H, Liberia will be eliminated if they do not win hosting Namibia. Malawi hosts Equatorial Guinea, and both of them need a win and Namibia not winning to survive. If Malawi or Equatorial Guinea wins and Namibia draws, Malawi or Equatorial Guinea will be alive but with no realistic chance at making up the goal differential. That is currently Namibia +8, Malawi -1, and Equatorial Guinea -4. If Malawi wins, their goal differential will be 0 or better, and Namibia will stay at +8 if they draw.

In Group C, there are four teams, and it is Matchday 3 of 6, so nobody can be eliminated.

In Group G, Lithuania will be eliminated if they lose at Finland, which is UEFA's first game of the day. Malta will be eliminated if they do win hosting Netherlands.

In Group H, Cyprus will be eliminated if they do not win hosting Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In Group L, Faroe Islands hosts Montenegro, and Czech Republic hosts Croatia. Faroe Islands and Montenegro will be eliminated if they lose and Czech Republic vs. Croatia is a draw. Croatia and Czech Republic host Gibraltar on later matchdays, and Faroe Islands and Montenegro are realistically eliminated.

Those are five possible eliminations in UEFA, and ten total. Concacaf has Matchday 3 of 6, so nobody can be eliminated. AFC, CONMEBOL, and OFC do not play.

 

Malawi vs. Equatorial Guinea was canceled because Equatorial Guinea was unable to travel. Wikipedia does not call them eliminated. If Namibia wins at Liberia today, Malawi and Equatorial Guinea will be eliminated because they would have finished below second even if one of them beat the other and won their last game.

 

113. Lithuania was eliminated by Finland 2-1 Lithuania.

I made a mistake earlier. Even after I listed Botswana, Guinea, Malawi, and Equatorial Guinea as being eliminated because they cannot be one of the best second place teams, I included them as possible eliminations today. Wikipedia does not mark Malawi and Equatorial Guinea as eliminated. A website says that Malawi vs. Equatorial Guinea will be made up, and I wonder if it can be played a few days after Matchday 10 when players are supposed to be with their clubs. I hope that FIFA writes a recap of today's games saying if and when the game will be played.

 

ℹ️ Here’s the letter from CAF to all associations back in March this year that specifically states the teams who finish in second place in their #FIFAWorldCup Qualifying group in Africa will have their results against the bottom team in the group annulled. pic.twitter.com/6Z5Q1VDCuj

— The International Window (@windowintlpod) October 9, 2025

Results against the bottom teams from the group will not be counted for the second place teams. So we can take that into account for the eliminations