211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

Tonga's Ulafala Sonasi scored in the 45+1st, and it looked like the winning goal until Samoa's Luke Lui Matai Salisbury scored in the 86th. Sonasi is 17, and Salisbury is 19. Jefferson Faamatau plays defense, but he scored the winner in the 105+3rd.

The only remaining eliminations this year will be two of Solomon Islands, Fiji, New Caledonia, and Papua New Guinea; and two of New Zealand, Tahiti, Vanuatu, and Samoa. OFC plays single round-robin groups with one game in October and two games in November. In March, OFC plays their Semifinals and Final to eliminate three teams; CONMEBOL, AFC, and CAF might eliminate their bottom teams; UEFA will be too early to eliminate any teams; and Concacaf resumes in June. In the past, the OFC teams could not qualify before the interconfederational playoffs. Now that they have an automatic spot, their winner in March will be one of the first qualified teams, along with some from AFC and CONMEBOL.

 

What a thrilling match between Tonga and Samoa! That 105+3rd minute winner from Jefferson Faamatau must have been incredible to watch.

 

This month's qualifiers are done except for CONMEBOL today, but with eight games after today, it is way too early for any team to qualify or be eliminated. In November, OFC will have four eliminations, which will be the only additional ones this year. In AFC's Group A, Kyrgyz Republic and Korea DPR (North Korea) could be eliminated from finishing in the top two for direct qualification, but not eliminated. Third and fourth in each group goes to the Fourth Round. In March 2025, OFC will eliminate two teams and finish qualifying, while AFC and CAF will probably have eliminations. CONMEBOL could have eliminations then, but it is unlikely because a group of ten that eliminates three teams could only eliminate teams that were at least 13 points behind seventh after March, and last place is currently 6 points behind seventh with five more games through March.

The other big news will be when UEFA announces when their draw will be. They start in March 2025, and I am wondering if they will wait until late November after the FIFA Rankings that include November's games, or later than that.

 

FIFA will make the draw for the European Qualifiers sometime after 22 November, which is the date of the draw for the UNL knockout phase.

 

OFC has games on Wednesday at 10:00 P.M. USA Eastern and Thursday at 1:00 A.M. USA Eastern. If New Caledonia defeats Solomon Islands and Fiji defeats Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia and Fiji advance to the Semifinals, and Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea are eliminated. In that case, Group A's third and final matchday will determine which team finishes first and which team finishes second, which is important. Assuming New Zealand wins Group B, they will face second from Group A, so second from Group A cannot qualify without beating New Zealand. First from Group A could defeat second from Group B, lose to New Zealand, and qualify from playoffs, albeit those teams will probably be better than New Zealand. It would still be nice for whichever small country is alive until the playoffs. Group B's second matchday is Thursday at 10:00 P.M. USA Eastern and Friday at 1:30 A.M. USA Eastern. The second game is between New Zealand and Vanuatu, who both won their first game, so there cannot be a 6-6-0-0 point distribution after Matchday 2. The loser of Samoa vs. Tahiti if there is a loser will be eliminated if New Zealand vs. Vanuatu is a draw. Tahiti lost to New Zealand, and Samoa ends against New Zealand, so Samoa must beat Tahiti to have a realistic chance of advancing.

UEFA's draw will be on 13 December.

 

177. Solomon Islands

With both games in Papua New Guinea, the scores were Solomon Islands 2-3 New Caledonia and Papua New Guinea 3-3 Fiji. That gives New Caledonia 6 points, Fiji 4, Papua New Guinea 1, and Solomon Islands 0. Solomon Islands is 4 behind second with one game left, so they are eliminated.

 

176. Samoa

After Samoa 0-3 Tahiti in New Zealand, Samoa needed Vanuatu to beat New Zealand, and New Zealand won 8-1. New Zealand has 6 points and advanced. Tahiti and Vanuatu have 3 points and end against each other, and Tahiti advances with a draw because they have a better goal differential than Vanuatu. Samoa lost their first two games, and they will lose to New Zealand. OFC has six teams left, with the two groups eliminating one more team each this month.

 

Here are the scenarios for OFC's Group A tonight or while you are asleep for people in the Americas and Europe. In a doublleheader in Papua New Guinea, Fiji (4) plays New Caledonia (6), and Papua New Guinea (1) plays Solomon Islands (0). Here is who advances of Fiji or Papua New Guinea:

Fiji wins or draws: They advance and Papua New Guinea is eliminated

Fiji loses by 1: Papua New Guinea must win by at least 3, win by 2 and score more goals than Fiji, or win by 2 and score the same amount of goals as Fiji and win a later tiebreaker

Fiji loses by 2: Papua New Guinea must win by at least 2, win by 1 and score more goals than Fiji, or win by 1 and score the same amount of goals as Fiji and win a later tiebreaker

Fiji loses by 3 or more: Papua New Guinea winning by any score would give them a better goal differential than Fiji.

If Fiji loses by 2 and Papua New Guinea wins by 1, Papua New Guinea will probably score more goals than Fiji, so Fiji is in bad shape if they lose by more than 1.

CONMEBOL will not have any eliminations, but if Argentina wins and Chile loses, Argentina clinches finishing above Chile with 6 games left.

 

175. Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea needed New Caledonia to beat Fiji. Fiji's Roy Krishna scored the first goal of the game in the 45+4th, which was bad for Papua New Guinea. New Caledonia's Jean-Jacques Katrawa equalized in the 59th. Fiji almost scored in stoppage time, and without replay I could not tell on my own if the ball crossed the line, but by keeping it out to make the game end 1-1, New Caledonia won the group with 7 points, and Fiji must beat New Zealand in March to have a chance at qualifying. We will see if Papua New Guinea can join Bhutan, Thailand, and Malaysia as teams that won the day they were eliminated. The games were different days in my time zone (one Saturday and one Sunday), but I count a doubleheader at one site as being the same day.

Group B is simple. Tahiti (3 points, +0) and Vanuatu (3 points, -4) play each other, so Vanuatu must win. The game will be in New Zealand, and New Zealand plays eliminated Samoa after that. New Zealand is +10. Their goal differential advantage is big enough that if Tahiti wins 3-0, New Zealand could lose 7-0 and still finish first.

 

174. Vanuatu

They needed to beat Tahiti, and Tahiti won 2-0. OFC's Semifinals and Final will be in March in New Zealand. They will be New Zealand vs. Fiji and New Caledonia vs. Tahiti.

The longest gap between national team games is from November to March.

 

173. Russia

Apparently FIFA and UEFA have decided to keep the ban at least until 2026 so we can take Russia out of the list

 

I'll summarize the 39 eliminations:

October 2023: 10
November 2023: 1 to make 11 (Eritrea withdrew)
March 2024: 7 to make 18
June 2024: 13 to make 31
September 2024: 3 to make 34
November 2024: 5 to make 39 (including Russia's suspension)