211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

You have two different teams listed at 205?

 

Thank you. I wasn't following qualifying as much as I used to. Nobody else can be eliminated until March.

 

201. Eritrea

https://www.cafonline.com/news/statement-on-fifa-world-cup-2026-preliminary-competition/

 

I am assuming that CAF's comparison of second place teams will exclude games against sixth place teams like UEFA did when they had groups of five or six, but that has not been decided yet. If teams withdraw, it is better to withdraw before playing any games. In World Cup 2022 qualifying, North Korea withdrew after playing 5 games, which were taken out of the standings for the other teams.

 

I tried to do elimination scenarios in AFC, but it was complicated. The top two in each group advance. I may do scenarios after tomorrow's games. Teams play the same opponent on Matchday 3 and Matchday 4 this month. For now, here are the standings and schedule:

Group A:
Qatar 6, Kuwait 3, India 3, and Afghanistan 0
Qatar plays Kuwait, and India plays Afghanistan.

Group B:
Japan 6, Korea DPR (North Korea) 3, Syria 3, and Myanmar 0
Japan plays Korea DPR, and Syria plays Myanmar.

Group C:
Korea Republic (South Korea) 6, Thailand 3, China 3, and Singapore 0
Korea Republic plays Thailand, and China plays Singapore.

Group D:
Malaysia 6, Oman 3, Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) 3, and Chinese Taipei 0
Malaysia plays Oman, and Kyrgyz Republic plays Chinese Taipei.

Group E:
Iran 4, Uzbekistan 4, Turkmenistan 1, and Hong Kong 1
Iran plays Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan plays Hong Kong.

Group F:
Iraq 6, Vietnam 3, Philippines 1, and Indonesia 1
Iraq plays Philippines, and Vietnam plays Indonesia.

Group G:
Saudi Arabia 6, Tajikistan 4, Jordan 1, and Pakistan 0
Saudi Arabia plays Tajikistan, and Jordan plays Pakistan.

Group H:
United Arab Emirates 6, Bahrain 3, Yemen 3, and Nepal 0
United Arab Emirates plays Yemen, and Bahrain plays Nepal.

Group I:
Australia 6, Lebanon 2, Palestine 1, and Bangladesh 1
Australia plays Lebanon, and Palestine plays Bangladesh.

The first four groups have the same distribution, and have first playing second and third playing fourth. Groups E through I are five groups that have different point distributions.

Tomorrow's first game is Pakistan vs. Jordan at 10:00 A.M. CET and 5:00 A.M. USA Eastern. Other than a half hour break, there will be at least one game continuously for twelve hours

 

Group A:
Qatar 3-0 Kuwait, and Afghanistan 0-0 India
Qatar 9, India 4, Kuwait 3, and Afghanistan 1
No team will be eliminated on March 26. Afghanistan will survive until June. If they lose in India, they will trail India by 6 points and at least 11 goal differential, so they would be realistically eliminated, but not mathematically eliminated.

Group B:
Japan 1-0 Korea DPR (North Korea), and Myanmar 1-1 Syria
Japan 9, Syria 4, Korea DPR 3, and Myanmar 1
No team will be eliminated on March 26. The point distribution is the same as in Group A, and Myanmar will be realistically but not mathematically eliminated if they lose to Syria, who has to play their home game in Saudi Arabia.

Group C:
Korea Republic (South Korea) 1-1 Thailand, and Singapore 2-2 China
Korea Republic 7, Thailand 4 (+1), China 4 (-2), and Singapore 1
Singapore will be eliminated with a loss because they would be at least 6 points behind Korea Republic, 6 points behind China, and Korea Republic and China cannot lose their last two games because they play each other.

Group D:
Chinese Taipei 0-2 Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan), and Oman 2-0 Malaysia
Oman 6 (+4), Kyrgyz Republic 6 (+2), Malaysia 6 (+0), and Chinese Taipei 0
Chinese Taipei will be eliminated with a loss, which would make them more than 6 points behind Kyrgyz Republic and at least one of Oman or Malaysia. Chinese Taipei will be eliminated with a draw and the other game having a winner. In that case, they would be 8 points behind Oman or Malaysia, 6 points behind Kyrgyz Republic, and Kyrgyz Republic losing twice to let Chinese Taipei tie them would mean than Kyrgyz Republic lost to the loser of Malaysia vs. Oman. If both games are draws, Chinese Taipei remains alive. If that happens and Chinese Taipei and Kyrgyz Republic win their last two games, it would make a 13-7-7-7 distribution, with Chinese Taipei alive to win a three-way tie for second.

Group E:
Hong Kong 0-2 Uzbekistan, and Iran 5-0 Turkmenistan
Iran 7 (+9), Uzbekistan 7 (+4), Hong Kong 1 (-6), and Turkmenistan 1 (-7)
Turkmenistan will be eliminated if they lose and Uzbekistan does not lose hosting Hong Kong. That would make Turkmenistan 9 points behind Iran, and 7 or 9 points behind Uzbekistan. Hong Kong will be eliminated if the lose and Iran does not lose at Turkmenistan. That would make Hong Kong 9 points behind Uzbekistan, and 7 or 9 points behind Iran. In the likely event that Iran and Uzbekistan win, they advance, and Hong Kong and Turkmenistan are eliminated.

Group F:
Indonesia 1-0 Vietnam, and Iraq 1-0 Philippines
Iraq 9, Indonesia 4, Vietnam 3, and Philippines 1
No team can be eliminated. If Philippines draws or loses, they will be unable to catch Iraq, but they cannot be more than 6 points behind Indonesia and Vietnam, who will be done playing each other.

Group G:
Pakistan 0-3 Jordan, and Saudi Arabia 1-0 Tajikistan
Saudi Arabia 7, Tajikistan 4 (+4), Jordan 4 (+1), and Pakistan 0
Pakistan will be eliminated with a loss because they will be at least 7 points behind Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Pakistan will survive with a draw. In that case, they will be 4 points behind Jordan, and the most points behind second they could be is 6 if Tajikistan wins hosting Saudi Arabia. That would make a 7-7-5-1 distribution. With the two teams with 7 points done playing each other, Jordan and Pakistan could win their last two games to make an 8-7-7-7 distribution and have Pakistan win a three-way tie for second.

Group H:
United Arab Emirates 2-1 Yemen, and Nepal 0-5 Bahrain
United Arab Emirates 9, Bahrain 6, Yemen 3, and Nepal 0
Nepal cannot catch United Arab Emirates. Nepal will be eliminated with a loss, which would make them unable to catch Bahrain. Nepal will be eliminated with a draw and a Yemen win hosting United Arab Emirates. That would give Nepal 1 point and a maximum of 7. Bahrain would have 7, Yemen would have 6, and their game against each other guarantees that at least one of them will get more than 7. If United Arab Emirates and Bahrain win, Yemen will be 6 points behind Bahrain, but could catch Bahrain and win the tiebreaker, so Yemen cannot be eliminated.

Group I:
Australia 2-0 Lebanon, and Palestine 5-0 Bangladesh
Australia 9, Palestine 4, Lebanon 2, and Bangladesh 1
If Bangladesh loses, they will be unable to catch Australia, and the best they could do is tie Palestine with 7 points. In the unlikely event that Lebanon wins hosting Australia, Palestine losing twice would give Lebanon 8 points, so Bangladesh will be eliminated with a loss and a Lebanon win. Of the teams that could be eliminated, Bangladesh is most likely to survive.

Seven possible eliminations: Singapore (C), Chinese Taipei (D), Hong Kong (E), Turkmenistan (E), Pakistan (G), Nepal (H), and Bangladesh (I)

I hope I did that correctly.

 

I would just point out that Lebanon is hosting Australia in Canberra and will probably have less supporters there than they did in Sydney as there is a fairly large Lebanese expat community in the suburbs close to last nights venue. It will also be the first time I've been to an "away" qualifier.

 

Korea DPR, which has not hosted since 2019, will not host Japan. The game is postponed, and the teams will probably have to play three games in June. That guarantees that Myanmar will not be eliminated on Tuesday.

 

FIFA announced yesterday that the Korea DPR-Japan game won't be re-arranged and a decision will be taken in due course: probably Korea DPR loses it 3-0.

 

Wikipedia calls the game canceled. I have seen teams drop out during a group and have their results removed so the remaining teams have played the same amount of games. I do not know if I ever saw a group end with two teams having played six games and two teams having played five games. To advance, Korea DPR needs at least as many points from five games as Syria gets from six games, albeit there is a good chance Korea DPR would have lost hosting Japan, so Korea DPR may not cost themselves points by not playing. If Korea DPR wins hosting Syria and Myanmar, and Syria does anything other than win their other two games including at Japan, Korea DPR will advance. Here are tomorrow's 17 AFC games in chronological order to know what order teams could be eliminated in:

1. Lebanon vs. Australia
2. Bangladesh vs. Palestine
3. Philippines vs. Iraq
4. and 5. China vs. Singpore and Vietnam vs. Indonesia at the same time
6. Thailand vs. Korea Republic
7. India vs. Afghanistan
8. and 9. Kyrgyz Republic vs. Chinese Taipei and Malaysia vs. Oman at the same time
10. Uzbekistan vs. Hong Kong
11. and 12. Tajikistan vs. Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan vs. Iran at the same time
13. through 17. Bahrain vs. Nepal, Jordan vs. Pakistan, Kuwait vs. Qatar, Syria vs. Myanmar, and Yemen vs. United Arab Emirates will be five games at the same time

Starting at the same time as the last AFC games, British Virgin Islands vs. U.S. Virgin Islands will eliminate one of them, and the first leg is 1-1. Concacaf's second WCQ tomorrow and the last WCQ this month will be Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Anguilla, and the first leg was 0-0.

 

Chinese Taipei is the first team eliminated from a group stage, and the first team eliminated from Round 2 within their confederation. As an American, I am used to a round referring to when all teams play at least once and some are eliminated. In soccer, "round" is sometimes used to refer to when every team plays one game within a group, such as the Premier League's last games being called Round 38. For that situation, I use the word "matchday."

Bangladesh needs to make up 6 points and 18 goal differential to catch Palestine, but a goal differential tiebreaker can never be clinched in advance.

Correcting what I typed about Group G that Pakistan survive with a draw, Tajikistan vs. Saudi Arabia is 0-0 at halftime, and if Tajikistan wins, Pakistan will be eliminated with a draw.

 

Iran won 1-0 at Turkmenistan. That got Iran to 10 points, left Turkmenistan at 1, and today's earlier game got Uzbekistan to 10 points and left Hong Kong with 1.

AFC's remaining five games are at the same time. Pakistan will be eliminated if they lose at Jordan. Nepal will be eliminated if they lose at Bahrain, or if they draw at Bahrain and Yemen wins hosting United Arab Emirates.