211 To 1: World Cup 2022 Elimination Timeline [R]

soccersubjectively · Apr 19, 2022

Pulling from a similar thread on the men's side, I went back and tried to figure out when countries were knocked out of contention to win the WC. It's hard to know exactly what teams are in content but I think 211 is about right. I know FIFA removes countries from their rankings if they don't play a game in a certain amount of time, but that's not to say they couldn't re-enter by running through qualification.

I don't think all these dates are exact but they're fairly close. Of course, if you notice any errors please comment below.

eliminated. country - date eliminated - process eliminated

DNE - did not enter qualification
W - withdrew
E - eliminated

211. Northern Mariana Islands - 2020.12.09 - DNE
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210. Chad - 2021.04.07 - Suspended
209. Pakistan - 2021.04.07 - Suspended
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208. Liechtenstein - 2021.04.30 - DNE
207. Gibraltar - 2021.04.30 - DNE
206. Andorra - 2021.04.30 - DNE
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205. Reunion - 2021.05.10 - DNE
204. Cape Verde - 2021.05.10 - DNE
203. Madagascar - 2021.05.10 - DNE
202. Lesotho - 2021.05.10 - DNE
201. Libya - 2021.05.10 - DNE
200. Seychelles - 2021.05.10 - DNE
199. Comoros - 2021.05.10 - DNE
198. Zanzibar - 2021.05.10 - DNE
197. Mauritius - 2021.05.10 - DNE
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196. Saudi Arabia - 2021.06.24 - DNE
195. Cambodia - 2021.06.24 - DNE
194. Kyrgyzstan - 2021.06.24 - DNE
193. Syria - 2021.06.24 - DNE
192. Macau - 2021.06.24 - DNE
191. Sri Lanka - 2021.06.24 - DNE
190. Timor-Leste - 2021.06.24 - DNE
189. Bhutan - 2021.06.24 - DNE
188. Kuwait - 2021.06.24 - DNE
187. Qatar - 2021.06.24 - DNE
186. Eswatini - 2021.06.24 - DNE
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185. North Korea - 2021.07.29 - W
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184. Turkmenistan - 2021.08.06 - W
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183. St. Lucia - 2021.08.21 - DNE
182. Martinique - 2021.08.21 - DNE
181. Bahamas - 2021.08.21 - DNE
180. Guadeloupe - 2021.08.21 - DNE
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179. Iraq - 2021.09.08 - W
178. Afghanistan - 2021.09.17 - W
177. Mongolia - 2021.09.20 - E
176. Nepal - 2021.09.21 - E
175. Bangladesh - 2021.09.22 - E
174. Uzbekistan - 2021.09.23 - E
173. Hong Kong - 2021.09.24 - E
172. Jordan - 2021.09.25 - E
171. Malaysia - 2021.09.25 - E
170. Palestine - 2021.09.25 - E
169. Maldives - 2021.09.26 - E
168. Singapore - 2021.09.27 - E
167. Tajikistan - 2021.09.29 - E
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166. Rwanda - 2021.10.13 - W
165. Laos - 2021.10.21 - E
164. Guam - 2021.10.21 - E
163. Tanzania - 2021.10.23 - E
162. South Sudan - 2021.10.23 - E
161. Ghana - 2021.10.24 - E
160. Bahrain - 2021.10.24 - E
159. Lebanon - 2021.10.24 - E
158. Central African Republic - 2021.10.24 - E
157. United Arab Emirates - 2021.10.24 - E
156. Benin - 2021.10.24 - E
155. Niger - 2021.10.25 - E
154. Ethiopia - 2021.10.26 - E
153. Congo - 2021.10.26 - E
152. Egypt - 2021.10.26 - E
151. Malawi - 2021.10.26 - E
150. Angola - 2021.10.26 - E
149. Guinea - 2021.10.26 - E
148. Liberia - 2021.10.26 - E
147. Sierra Leone - 2021.10.26 - E
146. Eritrea - 2021.10.26 - E
145. Swaziland - 2021.10.26 - E
144. Estonia - 2021.10.26 - E
143. Mozambique - 2021.10.26 - E
142. Mauritania - 2021.10.26 - E
141. Sao Tome e Principe - 2021.10.26 - E
140. Congo DR - 2021.10.26 - W
139. Sudan - 2021.10.26 - W
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138. Faroe Islands - 2021.11.21 - E
137. Azerbaijan - 2021.11.25 - E
136. Armenia - 2021.11.25 - E
135. Croatia - 2021.11.26 - E
134. Kazakhstan - 2021.11.26 - E
133. Cyprus - 2021.11.26 - E
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132. Macedonia - 2021.11.29 - E
131. Israel - 2021.11.30 - E
130. Kosovo - 2021.11.30 - E
129. Bulgaria - 2021.11.30 - E
128. Lithuania - 2021.11.30 - E
127. Luxembourg - 2021.11.30 - E
126. Latvia - 2021.11.30 - E
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125. India - 2022.01.23 - W/E
124. Iran - 2022.01.26 - E
123. Myanmar - 2022.01.27 - E
122. Indonesia - 2022.01.27 - E
121. Kenya - 2022.01.28 - W
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120. Djibouti - 2022.02.21 - E
119. Mali - 2022.02.22 - E
118. Namibia - 2022.02.22 - E
117. Anguilla - 2022.02.22 - E
116. Ivory Coast - 2022.02.23 - E
115. Equatorial Guinea - 2022.02.23 - E
114. Algeria - 2022.02.23 - E
113. Zimbabwe - 2022.02.23 - E
112. Gambia - 2022.02.23 - E
111. Gabon - 2022.02.23 - E
110. Guinea-Bissau - 2022.02.23 - E
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109. US Virgin Islands - 2022.04.06 - E
108. Belize - 2022.04.06 - E
107. Grenada - 2022.04.06 - E
106. British Virgin Islands - 2022.04.06 - E
105. Turks and Caicos Islands - 2022.04.06 - E
104. Aruba - 2022.04.06 - E
103. Albania - 2022.04.07 - E
102. Georgia - 2022.04.07 - E
101. Bermuda - 2022.04.08 - E
100. Nicaragua - 2022.04.08 - E
99. Suriname - 2022.04.08 - E
98. Honduras - 2022.04.08 - E
97. Barbados - 2022.04.08 - E
96. Malta - 2022.04.08 - E
95. Moldova - 2022.04.08 - E
94. Curacao - 2022.04.09 - E
93. Cayman Islands - 2022.04.09 - E
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92. Northern Ireland - 2022.04.12 - E
91. Puerto Rico - 2022.04.12 - E
90. Guyana - 2022.04.12 - E
89. Cuba - 2022.04.12 - E
88. Guatemala - 2022.04.12 - E
87. Dominican Republic - 2022.04.12 - E
86. St. Kitts and Nevis - 2022.04.12 - E
85. Turkey - 2022.04.12 - E
84. El Salvador - 2022.04.12 - E
83. Antigua and Barbuda - 2022.04.12 - E
82. St. Vincent / Grenadines - 2022.04.12 - E
81. Dominica - 2022.04.12 - E

By my count, 81 80 countries are still in contention to hoist the trophy!

It looks like the next cuts will be in late June with UEFA's next round of matches. July will wrap up CAF/CONCACF/CONMEBOL/OFC's qualifying. UEFA will finish theirs in October of 2022, with the intercontinental matches (8 in total) occurring in February of 2023.

[edit: Added Eswatini, which was left off the original list.]

blissett · Apr 19, 2022

soccersubjectively said: ↑

126. India - 2022.01.23 - W/E
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This one is interesting: I can see why you couldn't choose between Withdrew and Eliminated. For India, it basically was a forced withdrawal, due to covid, from the tournament they were hosting (AFC Asian Cup, that was doubling up as WWC 2023 qualifier); so it was a withdrawal, but, since the tournament was underway already and India had themselves already played a match, it actually felt like an elimination (although their group went on as if the lonely Indian match hadn't even been played! )

soccersubjectively · Apr 20, 2022

blissett said: ↑

This one is interesting: I can see why you couldn't choose between Withdrew and Eliminated. For India, it basically was a forced withdrawal, due to covid, from the tournament they were hosting (AFC Asian Cup, that was doubling up as WWC 2023 qualifier); so it was a withdrawal, but, since the tournament was underway already and India had themselves already played a match, it actually felt like an elimination (although their group went on as if the lonely Indian match hadn't even been played! )
Click to expand...

Yeah one thing I was extremely surprised to read, and I think will continue with a few more countries this summer, is how many nations just didn't field a squad. India actually attempted to qualify, which I appreciate, but many countries didn't even assemble a team. They just said "no we can't do it" : /

soccersubjectively · Apr 20, 2022

SiberianThunderT · Apr 20, 2022

The fact that there's a massive probability gap between 65.8% and 91.4%...

blissett · Apr 21, 2022

soccersubjectively said: ↑

View attachment 214376
Click to expand...

Has the odd situation in UEFA Group C been taken into account? Netherlands refused to play their home game vs Belarus, while Iceland did play their away one vs them (although they probably won't play the retourn match in Iceland), although Belarus hasn't been banned by UEFA as Russia was.

I'd say this somehow increases Iceland's chances to qualify over Netherlands: maybe not in a significant way, but it's a fact that they're currently one point ahead of Netherlands and, even assuming that they will be back at two points behind after the date when Iceland-Belarus is scheduled, Netherlands-Iceland in Semptember could become a decider: not very likely that Iceland will go winning the match in Netherlands, but "just "48% of chances to qualify?

Other UEFA odds don't persuade me: Italy has to win all of their remaining two games not to risk being back level again with Switzerland and having qualification decided by goal difference. Now, one of those matches is against Moldova, but the other opponent, Romania, is much less of a pushover. Italy is supposed to quite comfortably win at home anyway, but 98,8% seems quite a stretch to me.

Ans so on...

SiberianThunderT · Apr 21, 2022

blissett said: ↑

Other UEFA odds don't persuade me: Italy has to win all of their remaining two games not to risk being back level again with Switzerland and having qualification decided by goal difference. Now, one of those matches is against Moldova, but the other opponent, Romania, is much less of a pushover. Italy is supposed to quite comfortably win at home anyway, but 98,8% seems quite a stretch to me.
Click to expand...

Take note of the little "Odds based on Everybody Soccer's Elo System" - emphasis on the "Elo System". Italy has a nearly 600pt advantage over Romania, which could be even larger if this particular Elo system account for Home Field Advantage. (Using the FIFA Elo system, a 600pt gap equates to a 0.969 "expected result".) Then, even if Italy *does* drop points to Romania, Switzerland also has to *not* drop points in their matches, which isn't 100% chance, making it even more likely for Italy to qualify. So just based on the equations themselves and the ratings posted, I think that 98.9% makes sense, assuming you are treated "expected results" and "win chances" as interchangeable. Now, granted, the two aren't really interchangeable, as a 1-0 win is equivalent to an expected result of 0.85 (in FIFA's Elo system), and I bet people would expect something better than a 1-0 result if they were told they had an 85% chance of winning... but then we're diving deep into statistics (if team A beats team B six out of seven times, how true is it that 1-0 is the "average" of those seven games? what does it even mean to take the "average" of multiple games?) and that might be way more of a discussion than a casual online forum could hold. X'-D

Of course, if you think Romania deserves a rating well over the 1009 stated, that's another thing. For comparison, in FIFA's Elo system, the rating difference is roughly 1890 vs 1544 - a difference of "only" about 340 versus the 570+ in the Everybody Soccer Elo System. As alluded to in my previous post, I think something has to be up with this system considering the *huge* gap between teams... There are very, very few teams in this list with a rating between 1550 and 1300, (basically five or so UEFA teams in that entire gap,) which is a rather conspicuous hole to account for.

soccersubjectively · Apr 21, 2022

blissett said: ↑

Has the odd situation in UEFA Group C been taken into account? Netherlands refused to play their home game vs Belarus, while Iceland did play their away one vs them (although they probably won't play the retourn match in Iceland), although Belarus hasn't been banned by UEFA as Russia was.

I'd say this somehow increases Iceland's chances to qualify over Netherlands: maybe not in a significant way, but it's a fact that they're currently one point ahead of Netherlands and, even assuming that they will be back at two points behind after the date when Iceland-Belarus is scheduled, Netherlands-Iceland in Semptember could become a decider: not very likely that Iceland will go winning the match in Netherlands, but "just "48% of chances to qualify?

Other UEFA odds don't persuade me: Italy has to win all of their remaining two games not to risk being back level again with Switzerland and having qualification decided by goal difference. Now, one of those matches is against Moldova, but the other opponent, Romania, is much less of a pushover. Italy is supposed to quite comfortably win at home anyway, but 98,8% seems quite a stretch to me.

Ans so on...
Click to expand...

Yeah there are definitely some tough scenarios, including Russia and group E, that I wasn't quite sure what to do about.

I've worked under the assumption that the Belarus games will be played. (Idk how to create odds for something like that, ha.) So with that, the thing that's tilted the scales towards the Netherlands is their Elo score, which is 250 points higher than Iceland (1726 to 1476). Could they get upset and have to go through qualifying? Absolutely but even then they look strong to still qualifying. However if Iceland has to go through the second round, they will face some tough opponents (compared to their Elo score).

Similar situation with Italy. They have to drop a game against Romania, which is 500 points below them. For some comparison on the men's side, Italy lost to North Macedonia, which was considered a huge upset. But even that was *only* a 330 point difference there.

soccersubjectively · Apr 21, 2022

SiberianThunderT said: ↑

As alluded to in my previous post, I think something has to be up with this system
Click to expand...

It is all part of my secret scheme that I am not ready to divulge at this time.

Lohmann · May 2, 2022

81.Russia

soccersubjectively · Jun 13, 2022

80. American Samoa
79. Russia

"American Samoa are unable to take part due to ongoing challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic." (link)

Technically withdrew before Russia's ban.

Also I added Eswaniti to the original list, which I had in the original 211 but forgot to add them above, so the numbers were a little off. We should be good going forward.

soccersubjectively · Jun 25, 2022

78. Ukraine - lost 4-0 to Scotland

soccersubjectively · Jun 28, 2022

77. Czech Republic - Lost to Belarus 2-1
76. Slovakia - cannot catch second-place Ireland after Ireland's 9-0 win over Georgia

soccersubjectively · Jun 28, 2022

75. Hungary - lost 2-0 to Ukraine

soccersubjectively · Jun 29, 2022

74. Belarus - lost 3-0 to the Netherlands

soccersubjectively · Jul 8, 2022

tied at 72. Burkina Faso / Uganda - tied 2-2 and neither are able to leave the group now.

soccersubjectively · Jul 10, 2022

71. Togo - lost 4-1 to Zambia and will not leave group stage of the African Cup of Nations (WCQ).

soccersubjectively · Jul 11, 2022

70. Burundi - did not advance to knockout stage of African Cup of Nations

soccersubjectively · Jul 11, 2022

I'll try to do an update every 10 or so removed countries but here's what I have atm...

soccersubjectively · Jul 11, 2022

69. Trinidad and Tobago - did not advance out of the group stage

soccersubjectively · Jul 11, 2022

68. Mexico - did not advance out of group stage

SiberianThunderT · Jul 16, 2022

I forget if we missed anything midweek, but URU went out in the groups last night.

soccersubjectively · Jul 16, 2022

SiberianThunderT said: ↑

I forget if we missed anything midweek, but URU went out in the groups last night.
Click to expand...

Yes! Good catch. I thought they still had a chance but with the Venezuela win, they're out.

67. Uruguay

bigsoccertst1 · Jul 17, 2022

66. Tunisia
65. Botswana
64. Bolivia

bigsoccertst1 · Jul 18, 2022

63. Peru