You should know about Concacaf's original format where every team other than the top six would have had to advance through six rounds that each advanced one team. Concacaf has 35 teams. The original format had the top six playing the Hexagonal, with the top three qualifying. The bottom 29 would have been divided into eight groups of three or four that advanced the winners. The winners would then have aggregate quarterfinals, semifinals, and final to narrow the 29 to 1. The winner of that would have to win an aggregate against fourth in the Hexagonal and an aggregate in the interconfederational playoff.
The last international I attended was against Honduras. That seems like 3 lifetimes but it was only in 2017. Without the pandemic I would have been to quite a few more and now it seems like it will be a very long time before we see a home international. Listening to the coverage this morning it was mentioned that the Government has knocked back quarantine exemptions for visiting teams meaning that with the two week quarantine window its impossible for us to have home internationals in round 3 (or in the Asian Cup if we stuff up the next two games).
It's really horrible and extremely anti-competitive. Even the previous Group Stages are questionable IMHO. Teams were seeded by the notorious FIFA rankings and everyone plays each other ONCE and the seeded teams have home field advantage. Not having home and away legs only benefits the seeded teams. Only the group winners qualify to the next stage and you have some very strong groups with at least 2 or even 3 similarly strong teams competing for ONE ticket to the next stage. Then we also ended up with very weak groups with only 1 team favored to advance.
That's true That wasn't the original plan (there were meant to be 8 groups of 4 with full home and away and then H/A knock-outs to reduce those teams done to one) but COVID meant that wasn't possible. That's also true. Given the impact of postponement, I think the qualification ended up being a bit better than the original plan (which saw only 6 teams able to qualify directly, everyone else only being able to qualify via the play-offs). Having 8 teams in the final group is also "better". J
155. Montserrat. Possibly the first team ever to simultaneously go top of their group and be eliminated from qualification. They needed to win by 6 goals to have a change (if SLV v ATG were a draw) but only managed to get a 1 goal margin. J
Montserrat trailed until they scored in the 86th and 89th to win 2-1. They could have won by 5 and advanced on goals scored. If they won 5-0 and El Salvador vs. Antigua and Barbuda was 0-0, Montserrat's 12 scored and 3 allowed would have won over El Salvador's 10 scored and 1 allowed. Montserrat is the third team eliminated on a day when they won, and the previous two wins were in second legs before group stages. In AFC, Brunei Darussalam was eliminated with a win on June 11, 2019. In CAF, Sierra Leone was eliminated with a win on September 8, 2019. Curacao vs. Guatemala is 0-0 at halftime, and if it ends that way Guatemala will be eliminated with 14 goals scored and none allowed. After four more eliminations in Concacaf tonight, 150 teams will be left.
154. Guatemala (they needed to win at Suriname and it was 0-0) Canada, El Salvador, and Panama all advance with a draw and lead 1-0 at halftime. They are playing Suriname, Antigua and Barbuda, and Dominican Republic, respectively. Tomorrow morning in the USA, there will be Turkmenistan vs. Lebanon and Sri Lanka vs. Korea Republic. Turkmenistan and Sri Lanka are eliminated. Lebanon trails Korea Republic on goal differential, and they end against each other. Neither of them can clinch finishing first, but both of them would get up to 13 points with wins which would clinch being one of the best five second place teams if they don't finish first.
153. Antigua and Barbuda (needed a win and lost to El Salvador 3-0) 152. Dominican Republic (needed a win and lost to Panama 3-0) 151. Suriname (needed a win and lost to Canada 4-0) Those three games ended about the same time, but I know the order.
In 1974, Belgium was eliminated by the Netherlands which will finish as runner-ups of the World Cup. I doubt Curaçao will reach the World Cup final. So the three qualifying playoffs for the remaining 3 seats in the "Octogonal" are: Canada vs Haiti Saint Kitts and Nevis vs El Salvador Panama vs Curaçao That seems pretty uneven to me. Canada may miss it which would be sad considering it will host the following world cup. As for Haiti, that would be sad as well considering it was semi-finalist of 2019 Gold Cup.
Just on Curaçao, apparently they are coached by "Aussie" (/Korean/Netherlands/insert paycheck here) Guus Huddink, but he recoverying from COVID (get well soon there). So the team was coached for the two recent matches - and the two to come - by Patrick Kluivert! J
Someone else earlier complained the seeding for the first round was both unfair and weird (that was my interpretation at least). However, the top 5 seeds all advanced, only the 6th ranked Pot 1 side (Trinidad) didn't make it, and they both slipped up to a Pot 2 side overall, but also beat them and only failed to make it because they couldn't score against a real minnow. So we actually have Seed 1 v Seed 6 (or 9th overall, but the 6th left), Seed 2 v Seed 5 and Seed 3 v Seed 4. It's hard to see how it could be "fairer" than this - it really could have been a lot worse. J
It depends on if you believe the FIFA Rankings are fair. On Tuesday June 15, Curacao vs. Panama will be at 8:00 P.M. USA Eastern, with Canada vs. Haiti (in Bridgeview near Chicago) and El Salvador vs. St. Kitts and Nevis at 9:05 P.M. Therefore the third-to-last elimination this month will be Curacao or Panama, and the last two eliminations this month in either order will be Canada or Haiti and El Salvador or St. Kitts and Nevis. The latest start time in Asia will be 3:00 P.M. USA Eastern.
Those points counter the argument that the seeding was weird, but they don't address the point about the seeding being unfair. When we first saw the new format I think a lot of us immediately thought "wow! The playing field is heavily tilted in favor of the higher seeds". So the fact that 5 of the 6 top seeds advanced doesn't surprise me at all.
Also my gripe with Concacaf is that the previous matches should have been played simultaneously. Guatemala vs St. Vincent, ended 10-0, this game was played one day prior to B. Virgin Islands vs Curaçao, which ended 0-8. Curaçao had the advantage of knowing beforehand they needed to score 8 goals to get passed Guatemala's 14 goals scored. Also the way they got that crucial 8th goal in the last minutes of the game was very sketchy. The referree decided to add 7 minutes of stoppage time to a lopsided game that was already decided. This last paragraph is my own conspiracy theory through.
Because they played one day earlier, the two seeds such as Guatemala were more rested than the one seeds before ending against each other.
150. Myanmar (lost to Kyrgyz Republic 8-1, I don't know if Myanmar would have been alive with a draw) Philippines must win to stay alive and leads Guam 2-0. Even if they win, they will be eliminated unless China loses to Maldives. Iran leads Cambodia 4-0. Guam and Cambodia are eliminated. Today's other nine games are: Australia will clinch a spot in Round 3 if they beat eliminated Nepal. Iraq plays eliminated Hong Kong. Eliminated Indonesia plays United Arab Emirates. Malaysia plays Vietnam. To remain alive, Malaysia needs at least as many points as United Arab Emirates. Eliminated Afghanistan plays Oman, who is second in Qatar's group. China plays eliminated Maldives. If China wins or draws, Philippines will be eliminated. Eliminated Singapore plays Saudi Arabia. Eliminated Yemen plays Uzbekistan. Kuwait will be eliminated if they lose to Jordan. After today's games it will be easier to look at the second place scenarios. 18 teams can finish second, and that excludes Syria, Qatar, and Japan who have clinched first.
149. Thailand (they do not play today, trailed United Arab Emirates by 3 points before today, and needed United Arab Emirates to lose) 148. Malaysia (United Arab Emirates won, which made Malaysia need to win, and Malaysia lost to Vietnam 2-1) Indonesia 0-5 United Arab Emirates and Malaysia 1-2 Vietnam were at the same time, but the former game ended first.
147. Philippines (they needed Maldives to beat China, who won 5-0) Asia will have six more eliminations this month. Groups B, C and F have three teams alive, so three teams that are still alive will finish third (none can finish worse than third). Three second place teams will be eliminated.
146. Kuwait Kuwait's 0-0 against Jordan kept Kuwait 3 points behind second place Jordan. Since Kuwait ends against Chinese Taipei, Jordan ends against Australia, and Kuwait will have the better goal differential if they tie Jordan with 14 points, Kuwait is alive for second. However, Wikipedia shows that Kuwait is eliminated because they can't be one of the best five second place teams. Kuwait needed to win today to stay alive. 13 teams will have their fate decided on Tuesday, of which 8 will advance. South Korea vs. Lebanon is on Sunday. Lebanon will win the group if they win by at least 9, which won't happen. They will watch scores on Tuesday to find out if they are one of the best five second place teams. Here are Tuesday's USA Eastern start times for the games where one or both teams will have their fate decided with those teams in bold: 6:25 A.M. (Group F): Japan vs. Kyrgyz Republic 6:25 A.M. (Group F): Tajikistan vs. Myanmar 12:30 P.M. (Group C): Bahrain vs. Hong Kong 12:30 P.M. (Group C): Iran vs. Iraq 12:45 P.M. (Group G): United Arab Emirates vs. Vietnam 1:00 P.M. (Group E): Bangladesh vs. Oman 2:00 P.M. (Group A): China vs. Syria 2:00 P.M. (Group D): Saudi Arabia vs. Uzbekistan 3:00 P.M. (Group B): Australia vs. Jordan Of the 14 games, 4 have both teams have their fate decided, 5 have one team have their fate decided, and 5 have neither team have their fate decided (fate decided, means on that day, not that it is decided now). I checked if the 5 games where neither team will have their fate decided could matter to other teams. In the unlikely event that Oman loses to Bangladesh, India vs. Afghanistan matters to Oman because Oman will have 3 points drop if Bangladesh is fifth and 6 points drop if Afghanistan is fifth. Palestine vs. Yemen also matters as it decides if Singapore or Yemen will be fifth, which matters to whichever of United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan is second. Palestine could hypothetically finish fifth, but they would have to lose by 13 to get a worse goal differential than Singapore, who is off then.
Not the same thing. Never mind no one forced Australia not to play home games (it was their own choice), in our case, the AFC didn't even pick a neutral venue but forced us to play the games in Bahrain (which is in our group and had already played us in Bahrain). As it turned out, we beat Bahrain 3:0 this time around, but even so, until the fat lady sings and we finish what was supposed to be our other "home game" against Iraq, we won't know if this will be a case of "no harm, no foul". The decision by the AFC was outrageous and inexcusable. I can expand and explain if necessary. But don't be fooled: Covid-19 was simply a pretext or excuse. I am just glad that so far, our boys have responded as well as they have, venting out their anger by winning their games on the pitch. I hope they continue that trend against Iraq as well.
Someone needs to explain to me why the Group C matches are going to be played earlier than the other group matches (except for the group games which is the group that used to have North Korea before they dropped out and the group where the 2nd place team isn't in contention). This gives the teams in the other groups another unfair advantage, while it also happens to add more insult to all the injury the AFC has been trying to cause for Iran. edit: I had to edit this post a bit, but let me explain it this way. I see no valid reason for the games being played in the same time zone in the Persian Gulf area (e.g., in Bahrain, UAE, and Saudi Arabia) not all being played at the same exact time.
With Lebanon's 2-1 loss to South Korea, Lebanon joined Oman as teams that are done playing and guaranteed to finish second. For Tuesday 15 June, I'll list the second place possibilities in every group in the form X/Y where X is points and Y is points not against fifth, and an X at the end means the second place team cannot advance: A: China will finish second, and they play Syria. Their possibilities are: 1. China loses: China 16/10 2. China draws: China 17/11 3. China wins: China 19/13 Possible points for second not against fifth: 10, 11, or 13 B: Jordan or Kuwait will finish second. Kuwait cannot be one of the best five second place teams, so they're eliminated. Jordan plays Australia, and Kuwait plays Chinese Taipei. Jordan leads Kuwait by 3 points, and they have the same goal differential, so if Kuwait wins and Jordan loses then Kuwait will win the goal differential tiebreaker. The possibilities are: 1. Jordan loses and Kuwait wins: Kuwait 14/8 (X) 2. Jordan loses and Kuwait draws or loses: Jordan 14/8 (X) 3. Jordan draws: Jordan 15/9 4. Jordan wins: Jordan 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 8, 9, or 11 C: Iraq and Iran can finish second. Bahrain can hypothetically finish second if they win, Iran loses, and Bahrain makes up 22 goal differential. I'm not going to list that as a possibility. Iraq plays Iran, and Bahrain plays Hong Kong. The possibilities are: 1. Iraq defeats Iran: Iran 15/9 2. Iraq and Iran draw: Iran 16/10 3. Iran defeats Iraq: Iraq 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, or 11 D: Saudi Arabia or Uzbekistan will finish second, and they play each other. Palestine vs. Yemen determines if Singapore or Yemen finishes fifth, which matters if Saudi Arabia finishes second. Singapore is done. Palestine leads Singapore by 12 goal differential, so I'm ignoring the possibility that Yemen beats Palestine by that much to make Palestine finish fifth. The possibilities are: 1. Saudi Arabia defeats Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 15/9 2. Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan draw: Uzbekistan 16/10 3. Uzbekistan defeats Saudi Arabia and Palestine defeats or draws with Yemen to make Yemen finish fifth: Saudi Arabia 17/13 4. Uzbekistan defeats Saudi Arabia and Yemen defeats Palestine to make Singapore finish fifth: Saudi Arabia 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, 11, or 13 E: Oman will finish second, and they play Bangladesh. If Bangladesh wins and India beats Afghanistan, Bangladesh could make up 3 goal differential on Afghanistan to make Bangladesh finish last. The possibiities are: 1. Oman defeats Bangladesh: Oman 18/12 2. Oman draws with Bangladesh: Oman 16/12 3. Oman loses to Bangladesh and Bangladesh remains in fifth: Oman: 15/12 4. Oman loses to Bangladesh and Afghanistan finishes fifth: Oman 15/9 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, or 12 F: Kyrgyz Republic or Tajikistan will finish second. They're tied, and Kyrgyz Republic's goal differential is 13 better, so I'm going to ignore cases in which they both win or both lose and Tajikistan makes up the goal diffferential. Kyrgyz Republic plays Japan, and Tajikistan plays Myanmar. Myanmar is behind Mongolia by 1 goal differential, and Mongolia is done, so Myanmar will finish fifth if they lose, and Mongolia will finish fifth if Myanmar wins or draws. Mongolia and Myanmar have 6 points, with 3 against each other, Mongolia and Kyrygz Republic beat the other one once, and Myanmar beat Tajikistan with the second game coming up. Tajikistan must win or draw against Myanmar to pass Kyrygz Republic, which would make Myanmar fifth if Tajikistan wins and make Mongolia fifth if Tajikistan draws. The possibilities are: 1. Kyrgyz Republic beats Japan and Tajikistan beats Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 13/7 (X) 2. Kyrgyz Republic beats Japan and Tajikistan draws with or loses to Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 13/10 3. Kyrgyz Republic draws with Japan and Tajikistan draws with Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 11/8 (X) 4. Kyrgyz Republic draws with Japan and Tajikistan loses to Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 11/8 (X) 5. Kyrgyz Republic loses to Japan and Tajikistan loses to Myanmar: Kyrgyz Republic 10/7 (X) 6. Kyrgyz Republic loses to or draws with Japan and Tajikistan beats Myanmar: Tajikistan 13/10 7. Kyrgyz Republic loses to Japan and Tajikistan draws with Myanmar: Tajikistan 11/5 (X) Possible points for second not against fifth: 5, 7, 8, or 10 G: Vietnam or United Arab Emirates will finish second and play each other. Vietnam leads by 2 points. The possibilities are: 1. Vietnam defeates United Arab Emirates: United Arab Emirates 15/9 2. Vietnam draws with United Arab Emirates: United Arab Emirates 16/10 3. United Arab Emirates defeats Vietnam: Vietnam 17/11 Possible points for second not against fifth: 9, 10, or 11 H: The games are done, the group has four teams so there aren't any points against fifth, and Lebanon has 10. Three groups can have second get 12 or more points not against fifth, so that is guaranteed to be enough. These teams are guaranteed to advance if they win and sometimes if they draw: A: China win: Would be one of the best five second place teams B: No team C: Iraq win or draw: First/Iran win: First (exactly one of these will happen) D: Saudi Arabia win or draw/Uzbekistan win: First (exactly one of these will happen) E: Oman win or draw F: No team G: Vietnam win or draw/United Arab Emirates win (exactly one of these will happen) H: No more games At least six groups will have second have at least 9 points not against fifth, so any team that finishes second with 8 or fewer points against fifth will be eliminated. Syria, Australia, Japan, and South Korea advanced. Eight more teams will advance, and five more will be eliminated. Here are possible advances and eliminations in chronological order with USA Eastern start times: 6:25 A.M. Group F: Both Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan need a win and the other one not to win. Since Kyrgyz Republic plays Japan and Tajikistan plays Myanmar, Kyrgyz Republic will probably be eliminated, and Tajikistan will probably be alive when other groups play. At least one of Kyrgyz Republic or Tajikistan will be eliminated. 10:00 A.M. Group E: India vs. Afghanistan: In the likely event that Afghanistan draws or wins, it will eliminate Possibility 4, and Oman will advance before they play. This game cannot eliminate anybody. 11:00 A.M. Group A: Philippines vs. Maldives is irrelevant 12:30 P.M. Group C: Bahrain vs. Hong Kong and Iran vs. Iraq: Iran or Iraq will advance as a group winner, and Bahrain who trails second place Iran by 3 points and 22 goal differential will be eliminated. 12:45 P.M. Group G: United Arab Emirates vs. Vietnam will determine the winner, and Thailand vs. Malaysia is irrelevant. United Aram Emirates or Vietname will advance as a group wiiner. 1:00 P.M. Group E: Bangladesh vs. Oman: In the unlikely event that India beats Afghanistan, Oman will advance with a win or draw. Oman cannot be eliminated by losing. 2:00 P.M. Group A: China vs. Syria: China will advance with a win. Depending on earlier games, it is possible that China will advance with a draw. China can even advance with a loss, but that will probably make them wait until other games at the same time (see below) and maybe games starting one hour later. 2:00 P.M. Group D: Palestine vs. Yemen and Saudi Arabia vs. Uzbekistan: Palestine vs. Yemen determines fifth, which matters if Uzbekistan defeats Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia advances unless they lose and Yemen defeats Palestine, and even in that case Saudi Arabia might advance because of earlier games. The only way Saudi Arabia doesn't advance is if they lose, China wins or draws, Iran wins, Group E doesn't have possibility 4, United Arab Emirates win, and Jordan wins starting one hour later. Saudi Arabia cannot be eliminated. At least one of Saudi Arabia vs. Uzbekistan will advance before, during, or after this game. 3:00 P.M. Group B: Australia vs. Jordan and Chinese Taipei vs. Kuwait: Jordan starts the day with the possibility of advancing with a draw, but they will probably need a win by the time they play. Jordan cannot be eliminated before they play, but if enough other games go wrong, Jordan could need to win by a lot of goals. Chinese Taipei vs. Kuwait is irrelevant. I did not list every possible advance or elimination. After Asia, Concacaf will have three eliminations. Even if Curacao vs. Panama needs penalty kicks, one of them will be eliminated before the other two games end. Curacao vs. Panama is at 8:00 P.M. At 9:05 P.M. Canada plays Haiti in Bridgeview near Chicago, and El Salvador hosts Saint Kitts and Nevis. Canada won 1-0 away, and El Salvador won 4-0 away, so there isn't any suspense. We will see which game ends first. I do not think any teams can be eliminated in September. Concacaf and Asia will start Round 3, Africa will start Round 2, UEFA will play Matchdays 4 through 6 of 10, CONMEBOL will play games 7 and 8 that are numbered Matchdays 9 and 10 because Matchdays 5 and 6 that were supposed to be in March were postponed without the matchdays being renumbered (it is possible that CONMEBOL will make up one of those matchdays in September), and OFC will start no earlier than January (according to Wikipedia) and may have to change their format. UEFA and Africa could have eliminations in October.
145. Kyrgyz Republic. In the event it was Kyrgyzstan that went out (at this point). Tajikistan have 10 "adjusted" points - but finished behind Lebanon on GD - the only other "completed" team at present - for this measure. All other groups could finish over them at present given the right results. J