It's worthwhile to remember just how difficult it is to get this sort of thing reasonably right beyond the obvious. I think that's probably why I don't think I made any predictions in that '22-'23 winter. I'd come to learn how half---ed and idiotic my takes would likely be on edge guys. That being said, most of the misses were obvious.... Did anyone really think LDLT would be back? I was kind of surprised at how quickly Zim departed the pool considering how ---- the CB positional quality is, but still didn't surprise me. You look at the Defenders, almost all the guys gone, were obvious: Shaq Moore, CCV, Aaron Long, and Yedlin, while I'd wonder a bit about Ream (insane to bring him back) and Zim (I was susprised as mentioned above).....Acosta, and LDLT being gone isn't surprising, while Roldan being back was just idiotic to me, but I gave up bitching about it, the second Poch saw his locker room game, it was over, the fact that he didn't suck for once in the fall, helped too (Hyperbole, I know). Musah was really the only surprise there, but it wasn't a huge surprise considering how his career went exactly nowhere for the most part, the past 3.5 years.... As for strikers, all of that was predictable after Berhalter completely butchered the group 3.5 years ago. So oddly, the transition from '22 to '26 wasn't terribly surprising, I guess because the pool was pretty obvious, the only surprises were a couple of edge guys. However, as we all know, this cycle is likely to be similar to '98, '06 and '14, each cycle representing a slow aging out of a core.....The question is which guys fall off from the core we've had the past seven years and which guys break through from the kiddo unit, how the heck the next staff, or current one handle the disaster class at CB, and at GK, but it seems clear to me that whomever takes the wheel, they shouldn't be worried about status at either position other than Richards. We don't have any GK's we should be happy locking into place in the depth chart, nor any CB's that should have a lock on #2, the backups at 3 and 4, as well as the 5th, maybe 6th dude? I have no idea what's coming, but I don't begrudge these guys getting things wrong, Personally, while I think Brady is likely the only survivor of this group, possibly Turner too, I don't begrudge them going conservative with GK..... The only thing I know for sure is I'll be exceptionally disappointed if we don't see at least 6 or 7 '06's-'11's on the 2030 squad. W/o several breaking through, we're screwed. I think it will happen though. I'm confident Cavan will come through, probably Gozo, maybe Tsakirikis (I never spell it right)......I suspect we'll get some of that '02 and '10 flavor we got because we quite obviously need some hungry hearts to quote Bruce, and the kiddos are the best way to add that.
Looking at the backline options just does not inspire confidence. You’re hoping someone emerges if Banks doesn’t commit. Also they don’t really have many options for a left center back if they want to stick with a back 3. Trusty is there but not much depth that you can trust after him.
Hoping Peyton Miller becomes at least a backup in these upcoming two years before and takes some starting roles when Antonee starts to hit the decline.
Me, too, but I would point out that Miller’s not even really playing LB at the MLS level right now. That’s a lot of defense to learn.
I know this isn't a thread about the schedule, but I do want to point out how annoying and weird qualifying is going to feel compared to past cycles. We'll be doing two quads instead of a hex or an octagon, with the goal of finishing top two out of four. We almost certainly won't play Mexico or Canada in qualifying at all. The first quad would be in fall 2027 and spring 2028. So we start next year. The worst case scenario group (or maybe best case, depending on your point of view) would be something like Jamaica, El Salvador, Cuba. The second quad will start in the summer of 2028. I assume there would be two games then, right before the Copa America? Then the confederation is just going to give things a miss all the way until the fall of 2029, when the final four (?) games will be played. The group there would be something like Costa Rica, Jamaica, T&T, going by current Concacaf rankings. Here's an article from Concacaf about the confederation schedule through 2030: https://www.concacaf.com/news/conca...lecciones-nacionales-masculinas-del-2026-2030
Locking down Banks is the biggest short term priority for the senior team. And we badly need some of these younger center back prospects to establish themselves.
CB, GK, RW are my three biggest question marks. Feels like RW we'll end up being ok - CB and GK, consider me preemptively worried
I agree with the first part, but I don't think I agree with the second. Two reasons: 1) The schedule next cycle. We start qualifying in fall of 2027. Some of the games shouldn't be that difficult, but away qualifiers are always harder than we think they are, We only play 6 games each round. There is no margin for error. We've come pretty close to being eliminating in some of the groups of four we've played in the past. If we have a new coach (and even if Poch comes back), he needs to build familiarity with the group. The Gold Cup in 27 is the best chance to do that. 2) Big sweeping changes in generations will hopefully be a rarity in the future. This one happened through a kind of odd connection of circumstances. Even then, had we qualified for 2018, the changes likely would have felt more gradual. For example, in 1998 we finished dead last. In 2002, we had our best World Cup finish of the modern era. But about half the team were holdovers. About half the starters played an important role on the 2002 team. Lots of the new editions had had some prior time with the national team, even if it was limited. (O'Brien was an alternate in 98. Berhalter, I think, was at Copa America in 05.) Cherundolo, Beaseley, and Donovan were the only players younger than 24. I don't remeber Cherundolo playing. The youth movement was basically Beaseley and Donovan. O'Brien was 24. Everybody else was 25 or older. Our youth development is much better now. The pool is hopefully deeper. But half the players are still on the squad when we went from last place to the quarterfinals. The ending of this cycle was disappointing, but the team generally performed well until then. So I am expecting half or more of the next squad to be present on this one.
ST: Balogun, Pepi W: Pulisic, Albert, Gozo, Culbreath AM/CM: Tillman, McKennie, Reyna, Tsakiris DM: Cardoso, Adams, Mehmeti, Tessmann FB: Freeman, Scally, Miller, Jedi, Wiley CB: Richards, Banks, Pierre, McKenzie GK: Kochen, Brady, Eyestone Got 16/26 right last time and I was much more confident in those picks. For instance, I think it’s much more likely that we take a 3rd ST than all those midfielders. However, I’m more confident that one of those last 4 makes it over any ST option. A similar-ish thing applies to LB. There I do think Jedi is going to transition into more of an elbowback and possibly an LCB. At AM it’s kind of a coin flip between Gio and Cavan but I fear that Cavan is going to get lost in the loan army at that stage of his career and our manager won’t make the projection-based call. If Gio’s physical limitations are chronic or degenerative he might be retired. The dual national situation is very in flux. I expect both those guys to get looks with Germany’s U21s and if they don’t progress quickly to the full team we have a shot. I don’t think Culbreath is a higher class of player than Dest or Weah but he will be in the better part of the age curve for his role. Banks walks into our squad even after kind of disappointing this past season.
Good list. Pukstas, Campbell, Paredes have an outside shot. Byran Okoh Matko Miljevic (haven't given up on him). Also this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korede_Osundina
I bet you get 13+ correct. Pool turnover is a little harder to predict given ages of our best prospects being on young side.
Peeling it back to the untested yutes (including Brady as he's '04 and untested as a USMNT player) to start discussion ... Twelve players intuitively feels high, but I have no idea if it is. There's a decent age range here -- several '04s (Brady, Wiley, the unlisted Freeman) but also some much younger. So maybe it's possible; this isn't bringing a bunch of 20 year olds. But some thoughts. I don't think Culbreath selects the US. Just gut. Between the likelihood that we get a more defensive coach and the career path so far, I am less convinced that we see Wiley or Miller there. I think there's a good chance we see someone like Tolkin or another more defensive player. TBD on Pierre for me; it's such a tough position to be really good young that he's going to have to immediately shine with Philly for this to make sense over a decent veteran crew. I don't think there's any way Chris Brady is our oldest keeper on the roster. If Kochen and Brady make it, I really don't think Eyestone has a shot. I think Sullivan makes the roster.
I do not think that Culbreath is the same level of talent as Brown AND he’s not a rare left footer. He has not shown that he’s a burner either. Like I don’t think he is as good a prospect as Fabian Johnson. He’s not good enough for Germany unless he maxes out his potential.
With Banks if he wants to try the Germany U21s he’d have to file a one time switch. Which obviously would be the end of the road for his chances with us. We basically have to lock him in immediately this fall and starting with the Nations League.
Great list. I will definitely take Dest over Scally, I'm curious to see how Reyna's body holds up. Hoping Gozo, Albert, and Cavan all are on the squad.
With the information that I have read, Banks is as good as gone. If he really had a chance to be called up for the World Cup and declined; a World Cup we hosted and he would have been a potential starter for and he declined that. He is gone. Germany will almost definitely call him up in October for the Nations League matches and to even be on that roster he will have to 1 time switch. Germany isn't dumb, they can waste a roster spot for matches against Greece/Serbia to cap tie him even if they don't use him.
I don’t think it’s that clear if he is or isn’t. I still think it’s an open question. But at the end of the day if he ends playing for Germany it will be because he clearly prefers it. And if that ends of being the case not much you can do about it.
But are these Take Ons successful? Do older players attempt fewer take ons because they have gotten slower or because they have become wiser and more prudent about when to attack. It would also be helpful to see what % of Take Ons are successful by age.
I'm late to the game here, but I'd like to second this. We should absolutely stop refusing to play the many Landon and Dempsey caliber field players we have strewn about the program. And don't get me started on how we ignore the many Tim Howards we have on hand! Talk about poor asset management!
I think it’s both true that you lose a step as you get older but wingers also learn other ways to be effective as they get older.
Yeah, I agree on the Germany part. I thought I had read that Poch directly reached out to him to play for us this World Cup and he declined. If that is wrong, I will be very happy.
Alright, best guess incoming, since I'm a little upset how few predictions I made in 2022 on the public record. Operating under the assumption that Banks will *not* switch, but if he does, he's in, and potentially starting depending on formation/where Freeman plays. If Culbreath commits, he makes the winger group as well (and I’m saying as a super sub, although frankly I haven’t followed him at all). C = Confident. M = Maybe. S = Someone has to go. -----------------------Balogun--------------------- Pulisic------------------------------------Sullivan -----------Tillman---------------McKennie------- -----------------------Cardoso---------------------- Miller------Richards-------Freeman------Gozo -----------------------Schwake---------------------- Bench: Brady, Dest, Pierre, Adams, Berhalter, Albert, Pepi 26 Man Roster ST 1. [C] Flo Balogun (Monaco, 29) 2. [C] Ricardo Pepi (PSV, 27) 3. [M] Julian Hall (Red Bulls, 22) ------------------------- 1. Malik Jakupovic (Philly, 21) 2. Josh Sargent (Toronto, 30) 3. Haji Wright (Coventry, 32) 4. Patrick Agyemang (Derby, 30) Balo is the locked-on starter unless we get incredibly lucky, because Balo showed how great he is this year. I also don't see a world where Pepi gets excluded unless his career goes south. And Hall is the new guy on the block on a seemingly great trajectory. I imagine Sargent and Wright are unconsidered MLS guys at this point in their careers. Probably the same for Agyemang, too. The wild card is Jakupovic for me - right now, Hall is on an upward trajectory, but an even better beginning to his career next year and Jakupovic could jump him (if he chooses us). WING 1. [C] Cavan Sullivan (Philly, 21) 2. [C] Christian Pulisic (Milan, 32) 3. [M] Mathis Albert (Dortmund, 21) ------------------------ 1. Nimfasha Berchimas (Charlotte, 22) 2. Diego Luna (Salt Lake, 27) 3. Tim Weah (Marseille, 30) 4. Paxten Aaronson (Colorado, 27) 5. Benji Flowers (Dallas, 19) Wing is weird all over. I imagine Pulisic is back in MLS at this point, but still considered the torch bearer (he'll win over some people by scoring a ton of goals in Gold Cups, and hopefully a good Copa). I also see Cavan as a lock, although whether he's a starter or in more of a Reyna talented- role is TBD. I imagine he plays wing at this age because putting him in midfield is a lot of defensive responsibility. Albert seems to be on the trajectory. I haven't personally been wowed, but he's also one of the only guys with Top 5 league potential at wing. That alone puts him at first off the bench behind Pulisic, and maybe starting depending on Pulisic's body holding up. I’m only taking three here because of all the pseudo-wingers on the roster, and not being confident in anyone else below. Weah Weah would add another vet, but his last two tournament performances have really dropped his standing. Luna seems like a guy who is at his level, so maybe he sneaks on. I hope Flowers develops, but don't get the sense he's a make-the-roster-as-a-teenager type guy. MID 1. [C] Malik Tillman (Leverkusen, 28) 2. [C] Weston McKennie (Juventus, 32) 3. [C] Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver, 29) 4. [C] Tanner Tessmann (Lyon, 29) 5. [M] Gio Reyna (Gladbach, 28) 6. [M] Yunus Musah (Milan, 28) ------------------------- 1. Taha Habroune (Columbus, 24) 2. Benja Cremaschi (Parma, 25) 3. Niko Tsakiris (San Jose, 25) 4. Brendan Aaronson (Leeds, 30) 5. Rokas Pukstas (Split, 25) 6. Gianluca Busio (Venezia, 28) 7. David Vazquez (San Diego, 24) Wes will still be rostered, just likely in MLS. Malik might be our best player at this point (if he wasn't this tournament already, but I give that to Wes). And Sebastian will be there. He’s got the Roldan-like locker room presence, but can also contribute on the field. Tessmann I'm pretty sure make the roster, but only based on pedigree. I've never been a huge fan. Gio is probably back in MLS just because he must want to play at some point in his life. And Yunus simply has to get back into the fold. Of the non-makers, I imagine Aaronson is back in a midfield role at 30, and probably in MLS. Hence not making the roster. I am a fan of Taha - could see him squeaking on for creativity, and playing solid minutes in a top 75 team. He's a pretty similar player to Gio, so he probably replaces him. And Cremaschi is the piano carrier. He could easily develop ahead of Musah, but I went with the Musah resurgence. That dude was too good to not find it again. DM 1. [C] Johnny Cardoso (Atleti, 29) 2. [C] Tyler Adams (Bournemouth, 31) ------------------------- 1. Adri Mehmeti (Red Bulls, 21) 2. Aidan Morris (Boro, 29) 3. Brooklyn Raines (New England, 25) I love Adams, but he's always been a bit undersized. At 31, that's only going to be exacerbated, and having a calmer Cardoso on the ball will make sense. Still, Tyler is the soul of the program, and makes the team. I like Mehmeti, but I think he’s being rushed into minutes. I think his time will come, but we’ll opt for experience over youth at this position - DM isn’t a position where we struggle, and it’s also a position (like CB) where experience is most valuable. LB 1. Peyton Miller (New England, 23) 2. Antonee Robinson (Fulham, 32) ------------------------- 1. Kevin Paredes (Utrecht, 27) 2. Max Arfsten (Columbus, 29) 3. Caleb Wiley (Strasbourg, 25) 4. Luca Bombino (San Diego, 24) I struggle to believe that ARob will still be starting in the Premier League in 4 years. Maybe he drops down a level, but the most likely situation, to me, is that he’s content with a bench role on a boomerang team. It’s unfortunate, but I doubt we can rely on him as an every-minute guy in 4 years. I was initially going to leave him off, but I’m just not confident that multiple guys jump him. I’ll go for highest ceiling first, so Miller. His numbers are off the charts in MLS, and I’d think if he goes to a good enough club, they’ll develop him as a defender. I consider Paredes a similar player, but he’s smaller and at Utrecht I’d imagine he’ll be playing further up. There’s not a lot here. Maybe a place for a dual nat, or up-and-comer. It’s been a while since Wiley did something, but perhaps he turns into left-side Scally. We’d certainly take that. CB (+ LCB/RCB) 1. [C] Chris Richards (Palace, 30) 2. [C] Alex Freeman (Villarreal, 26) 3. [M] Auston Trusty (Celtic, 31) 4. Neil Pierre (Philly, 23) ------------------------- 1. Mark McKenzie (Toulouse, 31) 2. Ramiz Hamouda (Bremen, 22) 3. Chris Cupps (Chicago, 22) 4. Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic, 31) Richards in. Freeman in, but where is the question. His offense is probably too good to move him to a back 2 CB. Still, he’s not a wingback, so he stays here. Trusty gained a lot of… trust this World Cup. I imagine he’s back in MLS in 2030 as well, operating in the Ream role (albeit 7 years younger than 2026 Ream). So then we’re left with Pierre, Hamouda, and Cupps, hoping one of them develops. I’ll take Pierre, as I expect him to play 1,500 Union minutes in the next year, start the next, and then get sold with 2 years in Europe before the World Cup. If none of them develop, then McKenzie or CCC it is. RB/RWB 1. [C] Zavier Gozo (Salt Lake, 25) 2. [M] Sergino Dest (PSV, 30) 3. [C] Joe Scally (Gladbach, 28) ------------------------- 1. Bryan Reynolds (Rennais, 29) 2. Frankie Westfield (Philly, 25) I’m confident in Gozo because of his soccer skill and athleticism, but I’m more bullish on the latter and bearish on the former than most. I don’t think he has the soccer skill to be a winger at a level that makes a difference for our national team (or a Europa-league+ level team). His skillset strikes me as similar to Weah, albeit he’s stronger. That means RWB, and hopefully develops as a RB. I kept Dest. He's always going to be a good change of pace, and can handle the right and left. The more I think, the more I imagine Scally will be there in the same role as this year - guy used to defending top players, who can cover left side and right side. I was initially bullish on Reynolds after his transfer, but his fee does seem to equate to backup-level money for Rennes. He’s more of a wingback, which we have a ton of on the roster already. So I don’t see where he fits in. GK 1. [M] Brian Schwake (Nashville, 29) 2. [C] Chris Brady (Chicago, 26) 3. [M] Andrew Thomas (Seattle, 32) ------------------------- 1. Diego Kochen (Barca, 24) 2. Gaga Slonina (Barnsley, 26) 3. Matt Freese (NYCFC, 32) 4. Durran Ferree (San Diego, 24) Turner is likely too old (maybe he’s the roster’s vet). Freese has never been very good. Brady is the groomed one, and still a good, very young keeper. He seems like an obvious choice. The other obvious choice to me, who I have starting, is Schwake. He’s an MLS All-Star starter at 25, his fans love him, and his goals prevented is great. Then, I left Kochen off, because as much as I like the idea of Kochen, I have no confirmation of how good he is. He might go from Denmark to our starting goalkeeper in 3 years, but I’ve been spurned by too many young keepers who don’t develop. All that goes likewise for Slonina. So I went with Andrew Thomas. He’s older than Schwake, but similar, and a better youth pedigree. His advanced stats are as good as Turner and Schwake, and he’ll only be 32. --------------------------------- In the end, it looks like a weaker roster than this year, mostly because nearly no one is in their prime (compared to nearly everyone),. For that to change, we need some really big jumps from the 2003-2007 age cohort (multiple guys in there becoming Europa-league level starters. As of now, I don’t see that happening. I also put the players in a 4 at the back because that's what most teams use, but we really don't have the squad for it (again). I’d really appreciate it if MLS teams would start developing actual fullbacks and center backs. This team is also freakish athletically on defense. I like that. That should be our MO. It has a chance to be offensively, too (Balogun, Hall, Culbreath, Albert). Midfield is the one are that won’t be, unless we get some Freeman-type breakouts there.