There's no way I can do this with the level of knowledge that @Mikael_Referee can offer, but I thought I could at least get this started. Looking at both potential referees and then also Final candidates... I know the retirement age is gone, but even without its abolition, *so* many referees would be age eligible and still under 45. So this is hard to do because we know not everyone will return. AFC I'm surprised Ma Ning is so old (1979 birthday). I also presume Faghani is done and (probably/hopefully) Tantashev. So a lot of doors might be open. You've got to presume Japan gets a referee back and maybe South Korea. Is it Araki? Is Al-Turais the Saudi candidate? I would think the other Arab referees fall by the wayside given they did nothing of note. Except Makhadmeh, of course. At age 39 he surely enters the next tournament as the top AFC candidate and one of the trusted names outside CONMEBOL and UEFA. Is he an actual Final candidate? I think he has to be, though how serious of one will be up to debate. He's certainly a candidate for the opener, particularly if it is CONMEBOL v UEFA (in fact, while reserving the right to reconsider my options below, he seems the default for that). CAF I'm still very surprised that Omar, Jayed and Ghorbal are all only 39 or 40. Ghorbal seems past his sell-date, but perhaps not. I just have no idea if there's someone waiting in the wings in North Africa to supplant these guys. It feels like Omar and Jayed return unless they are passed by a country-mate. Tom will rise from South Africa. Then... who knows? Beida hopefully not cast aside over one call/match as he is a 1991 birthdate. Artan will be given every opportunity. I know people like Atcho. But the politics of Africa are weird and there are so many federations and regional interests. Laryea is a name from Ghana who is only 38 and did the AFCON semi. Ndala, from Congo DR, is 39 and did the Final. Are they in the mix? Are there new names? Regardless, I don't think there's a final candidate rising from CAF. Maybe Tom can become a late-stage candidate, though? CONCACAF Barton is 35 and Martinez is 34. They have to be back. On the flip-side, Ramos, Elfath and Fischer all must be done. And I personally think the female experiment is over (though, Huerta de Aza makes an interesting host candidate for Spain if she does well at WWC27); so I'd eliminate Penso and Garcia. Dickerson versus Szpala for the US spot if the latter recovers from injury soon? Escobedo is the Mexican candidate or is there someone else? And Dujic will get a run, I'm sure; with so much turnover he might have a real chance, honestly. Calderon seems likely. Nation will go if an islander must and he's in good spot with so much turnover with the big nations and Penso/Garcia likely not taking up spots. Barton is the obvious final candidate here, though I continue to believe giving a Salvadoran the final is probably a bridge too far. CONMEBOL Going to be a ton of turnover here, huh? A lot of people are old and/or not that good. Like, can Garay come back after this tournament? I think Abatti is a lock (and, though I'm an admitted fan, a Final candidate). Herrera is the top Argentine or is there someone else waiting in the wings? After that, I really don't know. Ortega is young but has been so bad when I've seen him. Tejera probably returns. The big question among known names is Valenzuela. He's also a Final candidate if he comes back, but he's 42 now (I thought he was younger) so it's close. OFC ... UEFA We'll talk a lot about this over the next few years so this next paragraph could look silly one day. Eskas seems a lock. Spain needs someone new. Kovacs obviously done. Letexier returns and Turpin retires. Makkelie retires(?). Marciniak retires. Mariani retires (and Italy needs someone new). Nyberg returns. Oliver returns and Taylor retires. Pinheiro returns. Scharer returns. Vincic retires. Zwayer retires and Siebert replaces him (if he doesn't also retire!). So right now we have 6 returning referees plus Germany/Italy/Spain, with Germany possibly being spoken for. That's a decent amount of turnover. The competition in Spain and Italy will be interesting. And then there are 4 or so extra slots to figure out? I'm sure a lot of this will be done by EURO 2028 but it's still an interesting place to start from. Can a guy like Meler play himself back in? Peljto? A couple names are going to have to rise from the younger ranks and Europa League duty. Regardless, I think only the returnees can be Finals candidates and even there, Eskas, Oliver and Letexier stand out. I hope Pinheiro also doesn't stand out. Finals Candidates So I think I start with Makhadmeh, Barton, Abatti, Valenzuela, Eskas, Oliver and Letexier. I think going to UEFA again and elevating Letexier that high is a tall order, but I'd still consider Oliver if England were eliminated and Eskas if he does a CL Final between now and then and if it's not an all-UEFA Final. I don't know, that list feels kind of weak compared past cycles? Maybe there's a surprise coming but the US and Mexico starting "fresh" and no Faghani hanging around certainly changes things. Abatti might be in a really good spot if Brazil isn't good. Also Oliver could just be the default as the one true big global name if England doesn't advance to the semis.
My one prediction is that there will never be another World Cup without a female referee and that we’re likely to get more of them, rather than fewer
Agreed and I think in an unofficial capacity, it will be the Women's World Cup Final referee + maybe the host nation's top female FIFA referee. FIFA just got lucky that Penso did the 2023 WWC and was a host nation but what was notability absent was a Canadian female ref because perhaps that was a bridge too far.
No mention of Atcho from CAF? He's a '92 birthday. He probably needs better ARs with him. I know Mendoza is new to the list, but he screams to be a WC candidate sooner rather than later. I think he passes the other (older?) white badges fairly quickly. Rivas probably is in the next wave too, over Freemon, Gonzalez and Vazquez. Thoughts? Maybe not for 2030 but for 2034
I mean, we already decreased significantly from 2022 to 26. You very well could be right. But at the same time, short of a female performing so well in men’s competitions that it’s earned fully on merit (which, to be clear, we are *nowhere* near), I imagine it will either be a bonus spot for the host nation and/or reigning WWC Final referee. Penso happened to check both boxes. If she didn’t… do we even get one this year (because Garcia was clearly a “if you get one, we get one” thing)? Because the 2022 approach was fully abandoned. Huerta de Aza seems an obvious candidate for 2030. I don’t see others. Every other confederation jettisoned this after 2022 and Seitz isn’t there to push it. Also Penso maybe wasn’t KO material but she is good on men’s matches in a way that Frappart, Alves and Staubli never were. Even right now, Huerta de Aza is not yet in La Liga and doesn’t do CL matches at all. Are we giving WC matches to referees who can’t even make it to their federation’s top professional division? At least Penso is a full-time MLS referee. I don’t know. The shelf life on this might be shorter than some of us think.
Garcia is only 33, and FIFA evidently had a lot of trust in her by continuing to use her as a 4O into the R16. Obviously a lot can go wrong in four years, but have to think she has an inside track to returning in 2030
I guess think about it this way, FIFA gave Garcia a 4O knockout assignment over Ramos. That’s at least somewhat notable to me
I think you are way overvaluing the thought FIFA puts into most fourth official assignments. At least insofar as merit or ability goes. I’d challenge anyone to point to one thing Garcia did as a fourth that was viewed as important. She might be back because of age and politics. But she’s also not a very good referee. Plenty of the female fourths from 2022 could have returned this cycle. They did not. Garcia only went to this tournament because Penso went as a whistle.
What? Ramos would have been insulted by such an assignment. We don’t know the whole story on Ramos but we have to approach this seriously. Ramos was a Final whistle candidate. Garcia was there for political reasons. You cannot possibly read all this to be notable in relation to now FIFA or Collina actually view the two officials’ respective abilities or performances.
Guess we’ll see. I am convinced there will always be a female referee only because it’s relatively costless to have a few and FIFA won’t want the PR hit of looking like they’re moving backwards
That might be right. But again, that mean they “moved backwards” from 2022 to 2026. One more move back and you get to zero. And a confederation has to put females into its top male competitions to make a female WC selection look close to justifiable. Who will do that 2027-29?
They maybe moved slightly back (depending on whether you count VARs) in terms of raw numbers of referees (3 CRs and 3 ARs in 2022 vs. 2 CRs and 3 ARs (including the first trio) + a heavily used VAR in 2026). But they moved quite a bit forward in terms of matches officiated by female CRs (3 vs. 1). I would guess FIFA sees 2026 as a step forward in terms of women officiating men’s matches, rather than backward
I don't see Huerta moving up to Spanish men's first division as center. Olatz Rivera has moved up to Spanish men's second division starting this coming season. She's 29. I know Catarina Campos has done Portuguese men's first division work, but I don't know how many games she has centered.
I guess the question I keep asking is when will someone from outside UEFA and CONMEBOL get the Final? If it wasn't now, then when? If someone couldn't get this World Cup with maybe the strongest set of candidates outside of those two regions at least this century then when can they get it? This century we have had a grand total of one of the final three games officiated by a referee from Asia or Africa (Irmatov in 2010). The question is will they go with UEFA again or give it to CONMEBOL? This World Cup was the perfect opportunity to give it to someone from outside UEFA and CONMEBOL. Instead, they just went with the most experienced European referee who was eligible for the game. I don't think any confederation has ever gotten the World Cup Final three times in a row. If a UEFA referee gets it a third time in a row, it basically means we are just going with the most experienced guy out there. So maybe Valenzuela, but it doesn't seem like FIFA trust anyone from South America other than Argentines on the truly big World Cup matches
Katia Garcia is a regular in Liga MX now. She did 3 or 4 Liga MX Femenil championship games in a row and then "graduated" to Liga MX
I think that it isn't necessarily a BIG factor, but FIFA can likely point to the increased visibility of the WWC as a reason NOT to have female referees at the WC. If a WWC final is seen as a feat in its own right, there's less reason to hand out token WC spots.
Do you think Pinheiro is that bad of a referee? I might sound like a broken record at this point in questioning your extreme adoration for the Norwegian, but is there anything at all suggesting that he's ahead of Pinheiro, or Nyberg for that matter? Even the tiniest indication? Aside from the rumoured Collina likes him-factor, which seemingly didn't come into play this WC despite there being chances to assign him to more and bigger games. I'm just really curious because it feels like I must be missing something extremely obvious when it comes to Eskås, but I can't for the life of me understand what all of a sudden made him rise to such high "status" in this community. If it's purely a personal opinion about refereeing styles, that's fair. And of course anything can happen in these 4 years to come, it could turn on out to be a great guess. But today I simply don't get it, when it comes to making an actual prediction. Assignments and performances would suggest both Pinheiro and Nyberg are ahead and more likely final candidates.
I know there are good reasons why referees tend to stick with their domestic league and home confederation for assignments, but wouldn't someone like Makhadmeh potentially benefit greatly from some UCL (or Europa or Conference League) and Euros appointments? Granted, it could also tank his value and there are political reasons why UEFA might not want to boost the profile of non-EUFA referees, but from a FIFA perspective, it seems like something worth exploring. There's a meaningful chance that the 2030 final would be UEFA vs. CONMEBOL with both teams featuring mostly players on UCL clubs, so why not find a few officials that might work that final and get them acquainted with what the players expect? Some of the smoothest games in the 2026 tournament were done by UEFA refs on UEFA vs UEFA match-ups where they basically all knew what to expect from each other. Also, getting two or three high profile UEFA officials on some Copa America games wouldn't be the worst idea, either.
She ran water or electrolytes or whaterver on to the field when Zwayer got injured (after being cursed by this board, I might add!).Honestly that might have been a tipping point. At that point she was a token 4th and a reserve official. Now... well, she just made an appeareance on international TV as a water girl... that couldn't be allowed to stand. Her assignment in the middle was announced not long after that. I don't want to oversell that, but she did run all the way across the field with dignity bringing water to the hurt referee who was doing an embarassing job anyway. I'd put her whistle assignment at: 30% the dynamics with giving AFC and CONEMBOL reserve offiicals games. 20% CONCACAF dynamics, and if Penso gets two games, Garcia needed at least one. 20% She was working top flight games in Mexico, and Mexico was a host country. 20% Planning for 4 years form now and wanting to prepare her. 10% The water iincident with Zwayer.
All fair. On Pinheiro himself, I don't think he's that bad of a referee, but no referee at this level is truly bad. I do, though, not really rate him. I think he has a dear-in-the-headlights look about him that you very rarely, if ever, see with the top UEFA guys. I think he pales in comparison to previous Portuguese top guys like Proenca and Melo Perriera and Benquerenca. And maybe even Soares Dias, who I didn't like that much anyway. I can cite chapter and verse, but there were a few shaky moments in this past UEFA season, yet he still got a CL semifinal (that I thought was undeserved). I also thought he was not that good in either KO match this time. We've talked about him backdooring into the Embolo 2CT but I'm also not forgetting what I thought was a terrible decision not to award Canada a penalty, even if VAR supported. So, no, I don't like him that much and I don't think he should be in the top echelons of UEFA if/when UEFA is firing on all cylinders. There is no way to prove that the supposed Collina admiration of Eskas is real, so it's probably wrong to waste too many words here. But given the sources I've had on this, I'm convinced. And I do think he was lined up for something big here but Norway went further than expected AND Oliver and Turpin needed to be used. Obviously we don't know everything that happened behind the scenese with Pinheiro and Vincic appointments toward the end, but I do not believe that suddenly means either is rated more highly than Eskas by Collina or either is actually better. Some of this will be taste, yes. But I like Eskas' soft skills and match management abilities a lot better than I like Pinheiro's. Nyberg v Eskas? It's an interesting and natural question. I haven't seen enough of both on similar matches to have a strong opinion. So, sure, on that regard I'm going with the Collina support rumors. Which @Mikael_Referee could probably say a lot more about.
I’ll take an early shot at predicting the 2030 Final: Jesus Valenzuela. I look forward to coming back to this thread in 4 years if I’m right!
I think the replacement of Collina and/or Busacca is going to matter a lot, perhaps more than anything. I don't think having two UEFA guys there means the Final is always a UEFA guy. But I don't think it hurts. We talk about fantasy assigning all the time and try to play that game; I can't imagine the politics behind replacing Collina now. The "Marciniak-as-successor" rumor has gained some traction here, thanks partially to me. But at the same time, I cannot imagine it would be that simple.
I wouldn’t say “every other confederation jettisoned [pushing women’s referees into men’s competitions] after 2022.” Some examples off the top of my head and backed up by Transfermarkt search: - Casey Reibelt (AUS) and Yoshimi Yamashita (JPN) has become somewhat-regular referees in their men’s domestic leagues and have had a few AFC Champions League (Elite) whistles. - Shamirah Nabadda (UGA) had a whistle at the last AFCON and two at the last African Nations Championship, including the third place game. (Though her AFCON performance and women’s AFCON semifinal were so farcically bad that I would be doing a disservice to the board’s information environment if I didn’t point that out) - Edina Batista Alves (BRA) became a fairly regular referee in the Brazilian Serie A and even had a Copa Libertadores whistle (though at 46 we can assume her career is nearing its end). - Garcia (MEX), Olofsson (SWE), Yamashita, and Alves all had Men’s whistles at the 2024 Olympics - The Leagues Cup, for whatever that’s worth, has had a bunch of female referees. Including those who have yet to really break through in the women’s sphere (e.g. Alyssa Pennington (USA) and Marianela Araya (CRC))
But you're mixing apples and oranges here, no? I said every other confederation jettisoned the push for female WC candidates. I mean, Olofsson was on an initial 2026 list and then she wasn't. Yamashita, too, maybe? Was Alves? Women are working in men's contintental competitions, yes. And that should/needs to be a prerequisite for WC consideration. But it is not, in itself, an actual qualification. Otherwise Guido Gonzales Jr. and Chris Kavanagh would have been WC candidates. Some women are on par with what you could call Tier 3 or Tier 4 male referees within their confederations. But the idea of pushing a woman as an actual World Cup candidate by giving her "bigger" continental matches? Really only has happened with Penso, Garcia, Yamashita and Alves, who you rightly point out is likely done. And Yamashita was either pulled back as a candidate or never put forward this time. Also the 2024 Olympic whistles happened before or after Seitz left FIFA?