All true, I was just going with a conservative number because 25% of 11 is 3 new guys which is about the bare minimum for "not much change" being false... so really I worked backwards to get to that number and it means nothing beyond that lol but yeah the point is "Four years is a long time."
I just looked through the rosters, and it's pretty rare to have no one 21 and under, though there are a few teams. But there's usually 2-3 guys at most, and while a few teams like England have multiple real contributors (Bellingham, Saka), it's pretty common to have one to no real contributors. Argentina has 2 players, France has two, and while one is a beast in Cavaminga, he's barely played. So yeah, there's someone that probably makes this roster, but the guys who actually have played are absolute stars. Even some stars like Cavaminga or Xavi Simons, Ansu Fati, did not get good minutes. So it's elite talent, generally + opportunity. And our group coming in looks like it might be lacking in the former and the in latter ... it's there, but at later developing positions like striker and centerback, as well as backup keeper, maybe. Left back remains the avenue, I suppose. To be 21 in 2026, you need to be an '05 or a late in the year '04. Maybe someone just busts through in the '06 class? Any younger and the standard is like Gavi or Musiala (against tougher comp, but there's no 18 year old starting for comparable teams to us talent-wise, either).
I’d give Aaronson’s 2026 roster chances at about 50%. His versatility really helps his cause, but he just doesn’t offer enough vs. a mid or low block to want him to be a starter going forward. I’d give Weah a nod over him because of superior athleticism, but like Aaronson he lacks the ability to beat a man 1v1 at the top level, which is very limiting as a winger. I think he’s about 60%. This will be controversial, because while I give Tyler Adams a 95% chance to make 2026, I think he only has a 60% chance to remain a starter. He just doesn’t offer enough with the ball and if a guy like Tanner Tessman finds the right opportunity, he should be given a shot to beat him out. I think McKennie and Musah are superior talents to Adams.
Looking at the batches of U20's from the '21, '23 and '25 cycles, its hard to find that many guys that look like locks beyond maybe Gaga or Paxten or Paredes in terms of "not surprising" break throughs. Most guys that could make it from outside to me are guys like Pepi, Pomykal etc, guys that were close this time but didn't, Djorde, that #6 whose name escaped me who got hurt after the gold cup. There are quite a few guys like that, a few other guys, but when I look at the current U20 crops blowing through, it does look like more depth oriented squads, than starter oriented (like 2015 and 2017 as opposed to 2019 and 2021-if it hadnt been cancelled). Just seems mostly like either straight misses or mostly guys that are more of the 24th-69th on the depth chart than locked in starter caliber which McKennie, Pulisic, Adams, and Musah all looked like the first time we saw them (I'd add Dest too, but Dest didn't become obvious until '19, I didn't even notice him at the '17 U17's).
Good list. Mine wouldn't be much different. GK: Turner, Slonina, Horvath LB: Jedi, Wiley CB: Richards, Robinson, Zimmerman, Palmer-Brown RB: Dest, Scally DM: Adams, Cardoso CM: Musah, McKennie, Reyna, Ledezma WF: Pulisic, Weah, Tillman, Aaronson FW: Sargent, Pepi 3 more if 26: Pomykal, Paredes, Tolkin Balogun would obviously have a place if he decided to play for us.
Chances of starting again in 2026 (if healthy): Sargent - 20% Weah - 50% Pulisic - 70% Wes - 60% Musah - 80% Adams - 90% ARob - 40% Ream - 1% Zimm - 10% Dest - 60% Turner - 80% = 561% or 5-6 of the same starters. So I'd expect half the starting 5 to turnover. Actually lean to the lower end of that due to injury. I'd expect 5 holdovers and 6 newbies. Some individual player/position thoughts: - You can't have any real confidence in Sargent starting. Plenty of managers would have went w/ a few different options, & there are guys on better trajectories than him. - ARob's moderately more likely to not keep his job cuz he's a flawed, direct LB. Also, that position has some interesting prospects: Paredes, Tolkin, Wiley, JoGo. - Reyna's likely going to be too good not to start come 2026. That's going to put a few incumbents across wing & CM under threat. - Weah would be unlikely, if there wasn't a possibility he could also start at CF. - Dest is a probable start, but there's a decent chance he's unseated by Scally as an all-arounder w/ development, in addition to other alternatives.
I"m as big a Tyler Adams fan as anyone, but his odds have got to be lower than 90% given his injury history (including back issues) and the fact that some coach could want a better passer in that spot... I would say 75%.
jedi is interesting, because how many lbs have we ever had close to his level? weve had beasley do a job in a wc, agoos/boca sort of, hejduk played there? fabian who almost never did? can vines/bello even get to the bottom of that list? throw parades in the mix with gomez, wiley, tolkin, jones etc. id be really happy to find a solid backup for jedi by 26, much less someone surpass him.
4 years is a long time in a player pool. The backup left back in 2026 could be 15 right now. But I'll play anyway.......................about Jedi. I think peak Fabian Johnson was better than Jedi. And people sleep on David Regis at his peak for us. Unfortunately, his peak for us was in 98 with the team unraveling around him. Partly because of him. But Jedi only turned 25. He was, as far as I'm concerned, our most consistent performer in qualifying. That's partly because all of the "stars" missed time with injury or suspension. Antonee Robinson played 90 minutes in 13 of our 14 WCQers. The one he didn't play? That was our worst game. The 1-0 loss to Panama. If we gave out a "player of qualifying" award, it would had to have gone to Antonee. Atnonee Robinson has more caps for the USMNT than John O'Brien did. He's now officially entered "core" status. He's only 25 and bound to get better. We haven't seen PEAK Antonee Robinson yet. And he does start for a team currently 9th in the premier league. Until ANY left back appears at anywhere close to that level, I have to go with him as almost having the best chance for 2026. Cuz you can talk all you want about that next generation, theyr'e nowhere close. We don't have anybody close to starting at left back at Jedi's level. Tolkin? What? A 5'6" I like him, but seem him as the next in line of Vines, Bello, etc. Good, but he's not going to magically turn into a top half premier league starter. Maybe if Jonathan Gomez actually ever plays for Real Sociedad, and also commits to us..............we can start including him in the conversation. Paredes hasn't been playing left back in Germany either. If he or Scally or somebody else is converted full-time to left back..........then we can have a conversation. So other than that its just speculation and hope when it comes to young successors like Wiley. Due to almost total lack of competition compared to other positions, I'd have to put Antonee Robinson at 80% for 2026. And basically a lock starter thru 2024 Copa America. I'll roll the dice and say our other left back in 2026 will be Gomez. But "my people" in Texas still don't know which way he's going to commit.
I said "if healthy", cuz that factor is unpredictable. 40% makes ARob the favorite. 80% is bonkers. He lacks touch and nuance, while being 25 already. That's the prime for a LB. He doesn't project to get significantly better. This is not our past at LB. It's a strong position in the youth system. Several of those players have a decent chance to unseat him. You hardly need to take leaps with the likes of Tolkin & Paredes. They've already shown a lot for their age and have a greater learning curve. Paredes was a left wing-back who played on a very defensive team in DC. Hardly a stretch to go from that to LB when you don't play a LWB. Not exactly going from Wing to Mid like Musah. Players make moderate positional shifts all the time. It's short-sighted to make this much of a factor. 3 and a half times is a long time for players to move & w/ the academy system more high-level players are being churned out. 1 or more can be beyond ARob's level in this time. We aren't small-time anymore where there's not competition for spots. Players with serious flaws, even as sufficiently young incumbents, are vulnerable.
Projected worst case scenario: Dest, Reynolds, Scally, and Cannon will provide plenty of quality at right back. Dest or Scally could then join Jedi at left back. The average age of the starting leftbacks of the Quarterfinalists was 28.1. Jedi likely has room for significant further growth. The rest of the LB pool: Gomez, Wiley, Tolkin, Paredes, Vines, Real, Farfan, Jones, Bello Paredes would first need a position switch. Of the overall group, at least one or two will likely step up to challenge for role.
I of course have no idea because of the variation in how all these players will evolve. Some thoughts. 1. Can the truly exceptional motors of Aaronson and Adams remain as exceptional through ‘26? And in Adams case add to that his ability as a small, physical DM to avoid injury as he ages. Big, big questions. 2. I tend to suspect that barring injury or some sort of depression/mental issue, Reyna will emerge as a truly exceptional CAM for his club by ‘26 — better than all the alternatives — one who uses size and technical ability to boss the game and distribute with vision. Whether that is a role that will exist on the USMNT remain an open question. But the prospect of seeing him work combinations with people who can make those elite runs like Pulisic and Weah is mouth watering. 3. Musah seems like a lock for a box to box midfield spot. His passing and finishing seem mediocre to me, but his physical tools are exceptional and he can carry the ball through the middle third (when he chooses to or os permitted to) with the best of them. As I have said before, I have always wished we could see him in a double pivot with Adams in a system where he can go forward and only one FB (at a time) seeks out to the attack. 4. I don’t know what to expect at the #9. Maybe the law of large numbers means that one or more of our under 23s will make a great leap forward, maybe not. I tend to be suspicious of posters who claim that they can tell who will/won’t be “elite” by age 18, and say that we can be confident that none will. 5. There are young players whose ceilings seem high, but depend on club situations to develop or not. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the following got so much better that they challenge for a starting spot in ‘26: Bryan Reynolds, Paxten Aaronson, Malik Tillman, Brian Vasquez, Jonathan Gomez—and there may be many more. Who knows? 6. I see all the exceptional things that Wes sometimes does. I wish he would do them all the time. I doubt those things will be a net plus over Reyna by ‘26. 7. Regardless of how these players develop with their clubs, so much depends on what opportunities they get with the USMNT. Gregg parceled out minutes in heavily skewed ways. It is maxim that you have to seize your opportunity to show you belong. But some inferior players received 4x, 5x, 10x the opportunities to shine than other players, both in terms of minutes and in terms of the the opponent/situation. LDLT seized his one WCQ opportunity in MOTM fashion but wasn’t trusted to spell the exhausted MMA midfield for even one minute. Ditto Scally as a stay-at-home r FB. 8. So all of that is why it would be a shame if Earnie doesn’t prioritize more tactical flexibility in hiring the next manager. We have more creativity and technical ability in attack than ever before. Part of the job is to put those players on the pitch in situations where they can show it. Treating them as plug in players in some board game and asking them to follow specific instructions is a waste.
Incidentally, they needed a more pragmatic selector among the group. Because they left a lot of more proven, developed talent on the table in exchange for low % gambles. 1-2 per team will pay off, but on the whole, they're going to have a low hit-rate.
Well they excluded everyone from the World Cup roster, and anyone with over 5 caps, not sure if you know that... But that is one of the reasons I included the Matt Doyle tweet with his own selections, some of whom could be more likely to hit because they're not all youth players. But there WILL be kids currently age 14-18 on the 2026 roster, it's just that it's too far away to say which specific ones will hit. What would your more pragmatic eleven be?
I did know that. 14 is a real long shot. That means they'll be 17-18 in 2026, trying to supplant mostly young to prime players in their own right. Even when it comes to 16 year olds, who'll be 19-20 in 2026, there will be maybe 1, at max 2, given who they're trying to beat out. A few happened in '22 because it was an academy revolution replacing a lost generation. And like you said, it's unpredictable. I saw it w/ Gio off youth play. I don't know if there's an analog. I liked what I saw out of Cremaschi. Enough to pull the trigger on though? It would have been some mixture of Doyle's & the most practical draftee's, w/ a couple semi-gambles (not to the extent some of theirs were though). If I'm in it, I'd have ended up w/ Vazquez, Ledezma, Pomykal, Tessmann, & Celentano; given how late they went, if at all. Probably Tolkin and/or Paredes (though he went pretty high, however he'd have been my 1st pick). I've expressed my belief in Quinn Sullivan. So I figure I'd take him at some point. Don't think he was selected. I might have to make room for Clark. Don't know how we go from one of the best prospects ever (not based off youth play either), to persona non grata. I'd have seriously considered Kristian Fletcher also. There are no safe CB picks, but Ian Murphy would be a safer style of one. I might gamble on Leone next to him because I think he's the best of the prospects & him playing for Mexico right now is somewhat circumstantial. Otherwise I'd go with Kobi Henry. Neither of these guys were drafted. It was very much a new p type philosophy draft for them. Kayden Pierre would be my right-back, because he played pretty well when given the chance last year, and has some upside, while the guy who could potentially beat out Dest and Scally needs that. It's highly unlike to be your DeJuan Jones'.
Thanks for the response, always good to get people's opinions on players... when you mention Paredes, Vazquez, and Celentano, you're certainly not going to get a negative reaction from me Isn't that a warning sign though? It seems like it would be a stubborn move to include Clark even with all the negative data points we've been getting recently... sure he could turn things around at any time but we don't have any indications of that.
Here is my first attempt at a 26 man roster for 2026... Standard GK: Turner, Brady, Slonina LB: A Robinson, Tolkin CB: Richards, M Robinson, Palmer-Brown, Trusty, Carter-Vickers RB: Dest, Scally DM: Adams, Cardoso CM: Musah, McKennie, Alvarado AM: Reyna, Booth WF: Pulisic, Paredes, Weah, B Aaronson FW: Pepi, Sargent, Vazquez + Kids + Dual Nats GK: Turner, Brady, Kochen LB: A Robinson, Wiley CB: Richards, M Robinson, Wynder, Palmer-Brown, Trusty RB: Dest, Scally DM: Adams, Cardoso CM: Musah, McKennie, A Richardson AM: Reyna, P Aaronson WF: Pulisic, Paredes, Weah, B Aaronson FW: Balogun, Tillman, Pepi You know what if Chipotle believes in you I believe in you... I'm including all five of these kids! Your nominees for 2022 @ChipotleTweets Young Male Player of the Year are…🏆 Paxten Aaronson🏆 Chris Brady🏆 Diego Kochen🏆 Yunus Musah🏆 Josh Wynder pic.twitter.com/ZdsKsPWQRC— U.S. Soccer YNT (@USYNT) December 15, 2022 No hipster picks like Pedro Soma or Ben Cremaschi, I don't care if the prospect spreadsheet nerds laugh at these picks...
I think Doyle had a good solution in his article, essentially rotate so that Jedi gets games against bigger teams when his workrate will be more useful and go with a guy who has better on the ball abilities against weaker teams.
Not a bad idea... "the one guy who I’d wager the most on to do it is currently not playing left back for his club" Obviously a Paredes reference.
I wanted to do that now, with proper integration of Tolkin/Paredes. In 3 and a half years, we could be talking about sitting them, or an alternative for a weaker player in ARob, who just had the incumbency advantage. It's ARob who would be rotating in to keep the other guy(s) fresh. We have designs on making a serious run this time around, so I wouldn't want ARob playing back-to-back games in the KO rounds, just because we play a better team against whom he has more utility. I'd just rather play the better player most of the time.