2026 World Cup Group Stage Predictions:

I don't know Paraguay, but in my eyes Turkey is better than the USA.
Turkey gives the best UEFA teams a very hard time, that's the quality they're used to fight against.

Ecuador has a very good and cohesive team, with a strong defense.
Their stumblestone however is that they create chances in abundance, but severely lack the firepower to put them in the back of the goal.

Several of their players are in the top 4 of the Eredivisie. So the Orange Squad staff has ample video footage to study their play.
It will be a tough opening match for the Orange Squad, but the decider can be the number of players in the Orange Squad with top level CL experience, including winning it. Combined with the attitude of the Dutch like here we are and try to beat us if you can, it needs everything falling just the right way for Japan to beat us, but sometimes that happens, and in combination with their quality it then can result in the upset.

Nope, Norway is a one man show and the French are tactically and technically so good they can put the supply line to Haaland as dry as the Sahara in a drought.
And that is the boring way and MO of that French coach anyway. Just suffocate the Norway frontline and kill the not so good Norway defense with just a few stabs.
To get an entertaining match of those two against each other we actually need Haaland to score twice first, to force the French coach to go all out attack.

 

Netherlands have somewhat better technique and aerial advantage, but Japan have stamina and pace. And a proven track record of slaying giants.

 

What are in your opinion "giants"?
And which ones were "slayed"?

 

Currently, Pot 1 seeds of groups.

Japan under Moriyasu have beaten: Spain, Germany (at WC plus in a friendly), England and Brazil. I know this is Olympic football, but Moriyasu led the JNT Olympic team which thrashed France 4-0, too.
I don't consider Croatia to be top any more now (old team of a manager who doesn't rotate players), but they were 3. placed four years ago. And Japan forced them to 120 minutes and penalties.

I think this team are specifically prepared for tournament football and love being the underdogs. Tunis will be harder for them than the Netherlands.

 

You used the word "slayed", which doesnot fit the matches you mention and that Olympic thing are youth teams.

 

Regarding surprise packages.

Some people are picking obvious answers which are all valid.

Japan, Senegal, Norway, Ecuador, Austria, Morocco, USA, Colombia.

I think one team that is flying under the radar a bit who I think could do much better than people expect and could be a real surprise package are Ivory Coast.

Not really a fan of the coach, but he seems to be getting better with his decision making. They are STACKED with attacking talent, have a very decent defence, and they are attracting some high profile dual nationals to bolster an already very good squad.

Ange Bony (Inter Milan) is heavily rumored. Apparently Italy was trying to convince him to play for them.

Also in Yan Diomande they may have one of the top 5 wingers in the world, who at 19 years old is attracting PSG, Liverpool, Barcelona, etc.

I originally picked Ecuador (by slimmest of margins) to finish above them, but I'm switching that prediction. CIV may even surprise and top the group over Germany.

So that's my real surprise package that nobody is expecting or talking about, beyond the obvious.

 

Germany has had some problems with African teams so you never know.

 

And Ecuador's scoring woes will probably bite them in the ass. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in 3rd because they can't score enough goals against Curacao.

 

I'm on them as well. I have a real tough time figuring out that group and its the umpteenth time I've been frustrated at the draw that sent so many powerful Sub-Saharan CAF teams into hard groups while some of the weaker sisters of the continent go the cake draws. I really, really, really am impressed with Senegal (true CAF champs), Ivory Coast, and DR Congo, hell even Cape Verde has enough scalps from the past decade for me to view them as a 3rd place team potentially rather than a 4th place side, but man, all 4 of them got some rough draws. Senegal has to cope with France and Norway, Ivory Coast has to cope with Ecuador and Germany, DR Congo has to cope with Colombia, Portugal and and the Uzbeks.

I definitely think Ivory Coast can pull it off, Ecuador's attack is as mentioned in the thread, erratic and weak at the tip of the spear, but Ivory Coast hasn't been here in 12 years, and this is a HUGE jump up in quality. Otoh, they've had some good results for a while now. I just can't wait to see them playing it out. Should be really interesting, just hope enough fans can make it to catch the games, we seem determined as a country to make this party blow ----. It's so depressing how literally everything connected to it (prices, war, ability to come in w/your pass port etc) has been made more difficult rather than less even FIFA made it much, much worse.

 

Yes, relying on 36 year-old Enner Valencia for gols is not ideal, but remember, the sequence of the games is important and they only play the Germans last. Their opening match against Ivory Coast will be key.

Ecuador are undefeated since September of 2024 and there is a long list of frustrated opponents that failed to beat them during this period (Argentina, Brazil, Morocco, Netherlands, Colombia, Uruguay, USA, Mexico, Canada, etc).

The fact that they only lost 2 games and allowed 5 goals in 18 qualifying games is truly remarkable. Their games will be boring, but they are certainly an opponent that everyone would like to avoid.

Long shot or not, assume for a moment that Ecuador wins group E and Germany finishes second. Germany would end up playing the runner-up from Group I, meaning Senegal, Norway, or maybe even France.

Similar scenario in groups H and J. It's improbable that Spain and Argentina are not going to win their groups, but let's say Uruguay pulls out an upset and wins group H, leaving Spain in second place. That would bring a gigantic Argentina x Spain clash in the round of 32. We may end up with a very different final four this time around.

 

In early June, I’ll be taking one more stab at predicting the first round results. At this point, here’s how I see things shaking out:


Group A -- KOR 2-1-0 7pts +3 GD MEX 2-0-1 6pts +2 CZE 1-1-1 4pts +1

Group B SUI 2-1-0 7pts +4 BIH 2-1-0 7pts +3 CAN 1-0-2 3pts -2

Group C BRA 3-0-0 9pts +7 MAR 2-0-1 7pts +3 SCO 1-0-2 3pts 0

Group D TUR 3-0-0 9pts +4 USA 1-1-1 4pts 0 PAR 0-2-1 2pts -1

Group E GER 3-0-0 9pts +10 CIV 1-1-1 4pts -1 ECU 1-1-1 4pts -1 (CIV scores two more goals than ECU)

Group F NED 2-1-0 7pts +3 JPN 1-2-0 5pts +1 SWE 0-2-1 2pts -2

Group G BEL 3-0-0 9pts +6 IRN 2-0-1 6pts 0 EGY 0-1-2 1pt -2

Group H ESP 3-0-0 9pts +11 URU 2-0-1 6pts 0 KSA 0-1-2 1pt -4

Group I NOR 3-0-0 9pts +7 FRA 2-0-1 6pts +3 SEN 1-0-2 3pts -1

Group J ARG 3-0-0 9pts +5 AUT 1-1-1 4pts +1 ALG 1-1-1 4pts 0

Group K POR 2-1-0 7pts +5 COL 2-1-0 7pts +2 UZB 1-0-2 3pts 0

Group L ENG 3-0-0 9pts +6 CRO 1-1-1 4pts 0 GHA 1-1-1 4pts -1


3rd-place finishers rank as follows:

A) CZE
J) ALG
L) GHA
E) ECU
K) UZB
C) SCO
I) SEN
B) CAN


Round of 32 pairings:
M73 in LA MEX v BIH ; M74 in BOS GER v CZE ; M75 in MON NED v MAR ; M76 in HOU BRA v JPN

M77 in NY NOR v SCO ; M78 in DAL CIV v FRA ; M79 in MEX KOR v ECU ; M80 in ATL ENG v SEN

M81 in SF TUR v CAN ; M82 in SEA BEL v ALG ; M83 in TOR COL v CRO ; M84 in LA ESP v AUT

M85 in VAN SUI v UZB ; M86 in MIA ARG v URU ; M87 in KC POR v GHA ; M88 in DAL USA v IRN

 

Norway with 9 points is wild
But if they make it happen, no matter how it goes afterwards it will be an amazing performance for their first WC in 28 years.

 

They always remind me of the US squads of 1990-2014 or thereabouts, generally speaking limited, and gritty as hell, eventually the 2002 and 2009 sides had some genuine attacking talent (the '06 team was smashed by injury and the '10 and '14 WC teams had strikers knocked out before the WC, and during which immediately wiped out the ability to reliable generate goals from the striker position)....Australia always seems to squeeze whatever they have out of that talent supply, so honestly, if I really think on a sort of long term view expectation:

Turkey is firing on all cylinders this past cycle, though they kind of sucked in the playoff and could have easily crashed out.

The US has been totally erratic, playing really good soccer in '22 and '23, and very erratic soccer in '24 and '25.

Paraguay was freaking horrible for really nearly about 13 years running or so, and were horrific just two years ago in the Copa America. They were fabulous defensively this cycle, but were a mess at times, especially at that Copa America so just how sticky is this run of form for them? I'm kind of a bit of a skeptic.

I find myself wondering which teams are most likely to have a slip in quality: seems like the US and Paraguay have had the widest swings in level of performance the last 2 years, Turkey's been pretty consistently good, Australia's been Australia.

I still think my side will play for group winner status on Matchday 3 (and oddly, it kinda looks like finishing 2nd might be a better Round of 32 matchup, though the Round of 16 likely opponent would make it a quick knockout the following round), I think Turkey's playing the best soccer, and I think Paraguay and Australia are better 3rd place candidates than nearly all of the rest of the options (my exceptions would be: definitely 3rd place in E, and I and maybe A, F and K)....part of me thinks Australia should be a top 3 finisher period because of their pretty consistent level of quality, I'm less trusting of both Paraguay and the US. Interesting to think about.

 

Paraguay's manager is the best in the Group in my opinion. That has to count for something.
And that is saying a lot since I also like Montella and Poch.

 

Impressive performances:
Draw @ Uruguay (admittedly Uruguay kind of fell apart inexplicably after a good run at the Copa America)
Win @ Colombia
Pair of road draws at altitude against Bolivia and at stingy Paraguay
Home draw with Brazil.

So yeah, lots of good stuff to like, I mean, this is why they took 2nd, and it's a good counter to the idea that their just Bolivia, but with some talent (they also play WCQ at very high altitude, around 9,300 feet apparently which is basically 500-1000 feet above where the black diamond runs begin at our top ski resorts in Lake Tahoe where I live), in that they collected a whole bunch of nice road performances.

The problem I have is that they are better than the '22 side, but have the same problem in general: defensive solidity, strong midfield, but no striker, and so they are vulnerable to explosive teams that can find a goal against them because they, really, really struggle to score goals...THEY SCORED ONLY 14 GOALS IN QUALIFYING. Their status as the best of a giant clump of teams barely separated in points (half of Conmebol's WCQ contestants finished on 29 or 28 points, Ecuador was the 1 29 point side) was clinched almost exclusively through their defense so it isn't hard at all for me to see Ivory Coast topping them simply based on Total Goals tiebreaker (Ivory Coast scored 25 goals in 10 WCQ's admittedly against vastly inferior foes to Ecuador's opponents). But the key issue to me is that Ivory Coast also has a stingy defense: 0 goals surrendered in 10 group stage games, if you look at their two AFCON's this cycle they won inexplicably when they hosted in '23, firing their coach, lol, in the group stage after stumbling around like drunks for 2 of 3 games, then went on an epic run and won it. This past winter they made a run to the Quarterfinals, winning a group with a Cameroon side looking to avenge a bitter WCQ disappointment, but crashed out in an epic Quarterfinal clash with Egypt 2-3.

It wouldn't surprise me if the group went:
IC vs Ecuador: Draw
Germany vs Curacao: Huge Germany Win
IC vs Germany: Germany Tight Win
Ecuador vs Curacao: Multigoal Ecuador Win

Then matchday 3 determines everything, does Germany play to win? Probably, how many goals can IC put past Curacao, probably more than Ecuador......so?

I tend to think this makes the IC vs Ecuador game more open than it probably would be anyway. Both sides are on zero points, and both know they probably take 2nd if they can win this match, and Ecuador should know that Ivory Coast is probably going to score more goals in their other two matches compared to Ecuador.

Otoh, maybe it's cagey because both sides want second.....I'm not sure. It will either be thrilling, or cagey as hell. It's wild to have a WC opener with two teams that combined, almost totally shut down their Qualifying groups in WCQ the previous few years.

It is worth noting that Ivory Coast did give up goals to Egypt (3), Gabon (2), and Cameroon (1) at the AFCON this past winter suggesting the great qualifying #'s might be more about the weakness of Gambia, Gabon, and Kenya and Burundi in WCQ than the greatness of IC's defense. Otoh, they also pitched shutouts against Burkina Faso to the tune of 3-0 (a top 6-12 CAF side quite consistently), and Mozambique (scored 4 goals in the tournament, so not that bad).

I would like to see both sides go for it, because after Germany's struggles the past two cycles, they may be a little tight at this tournament and both Ivory Coast and Ecuador will be more comfortable in the weather conditions (high humidity, potential for high temps in 5 of 6 matches too). History says it will be cagey, and 0-0, I'll probably just bet a max under of 0.5 unless the payout sucks because this game really, really sounds like a 0-0 draw, and at most, a game where 2 goals are scored if somebody grabs one reasonably early.

Such an interesting WC in terms of competition. Very hopeful for Ivory Coast as it really sucked to see them knocked out in the Group of Death in '06, knocked out on goal difference by Portugal in '10, and knocked out by an injury time fraudulent PK dive by Greece in '14. They're do for some luck and joy in this tournament, but that line from the "Unforgiven," is true, in all things sport, and often life.

 

I find the US group to be very interesting as I believe it is the most even group from top to bottom.

Any combinations of outcomes are really possible.

 

It's hard to guage CIV's defence.

As you noted the 0 goals allowed in qualifying was more to do with quality of opposition.

On the other hand CIV has a very good defence. On paper just slightly worse than Ecuadors.

Ndicka (Roma) Kossounou (Atalanta) Diomande (Lisbon) He's wanted by a host of EPL clubs The fullbacks are very good Singo (Galatasaray) Doue (Strasbourg) It's a very solid defence on paper.

But they are prone to costly errors, the biggest shock being the 3 goals they let in against Egypt. Gabon they were playing their B team.

The last window they shut out both Korea and Scotland, although the 4-0 win over Korea was flattering in that Korea hit the post like 3 times in what could easily have been goals. Also worth noting that it was a very experimental team.

Ecuador I've seen a few times recently.

They were okish against Mexico and US.

Against Canada I thought they were poor. Canada played almost the entire match a man down and were still the better side.

They surprised me against Morocco, and played with a lot of intensity.

Against the Dutch again they were a man up ost of the match , so its hard to really take anything from that match.

I think Ecuador are comparable in quality in defence and .midfield, it the area where CIV is far superior is in attack, and that's why I'm edging them to finish at least 2nd.

 

.I think CIV is one of the most liked football nations from Africa.

 

Drogba did so much for them, and the jersey's over the years have been so damn cool, like the Dutch orange but even better (I have a '10 version with an Elephant and a beautiful badge that I can't fit lol). I also think those who've paid attention realize how brutally snake bit they've been at the WC. I was bummed at their draw, pretty damn rough, but I still think they'll survive as a 2nd or 3rd place team so long as they can pound the hell out of Curacao for goal difference, they probably could use a goal against Germany in a tight game as well.

 

In terms of Ecuador, I tend to think they'll find a way through no matter what, they made it through CONMEBOL Qualifying, and gave up 5 freaking goals in 18 games. That's beyond absurd, I'd toss out to some extent the home advantage as like Bolivia they play at an extreme altitude, but even on the road, in 18 games, they gave up only 3 goals, and then consider this, zero games out of 18 where they gave up more than ONE goal? Pretty amazing.

I suspect that game ends 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1. It's definitely a classic game to consider going after an exact scoreline bet because it's reasonably likely that neither side will top 1 goal, if that. So only so many likely scenarios, at least in my mind.

 

I cannot see any of Germany, Ivory Coast or Ecuador out in the group stage, given the 4th team in their group, no offense to Curaçao but I imagine them losing badly to everyone, which will give whoever is third enough points and goal difference to go through.

Now it’s rarely as simple in World Cups but we have never seen the like of such a small nation, so that’s what I expect.

 

Costa Rica 2014... Surely with 3 world cup winners they will not advance...

Question is will France destroy everyone or implode like 2002

 

Well, a big part of their implotion back there was Zinedine Zidane's loss. Right now they have Mbappé healthy, alongside strong support. I see it difficult.

 

How many teams will make it through on 3 points though? The lobsided nature of a bunch of groups could make situations like those two semi groups of death (3 very strong teams and 1 likely weak sister: Groups E, F, I, probably to some extent Group K (I actually think it's 2 mega strong teams, and 1 good team and 1 not too bad team).....There are a couple of groups out there, where teams clearly could grab 4 points because the group has only 1 strong team, and several weak to subpar teams. I'd classify those groups as G, and to a lesser extent, J and possibly A or B.

I worry about teams like Senegal, Norway, Ecuador and Ivory Coast because they are a million miles better than the teams likely to finish third AND second in A,B, G and J at the very least, but if any of them finish 3rd, yeah, they'll rack up goals, maybe against the weakest side in the group, but 3 points is still only 3 points and puts you at some risk. Hoping I'm wrong as I'm pretty annoyed at how those 2 groups in particularl compare to groups like Argentina's, and Belgium's.