2026 World Cup Group Stage Predictions:

REVEALED:@TheAthleticFC has seen official “tickets purchased” numbers for World Cup group games at 70k SoFi Stadium near LA.

Sales for high-priced USMNT opener are lagging significantly (40k tickets purchased) behind games such as Iran v New Zealand.https://t.co/aSqy5cc8YG

— Adam Crafton (@AdamCrafton_) April 21, 2026

Re: the US. I think this is actually the most important factor in how our WC will go. We must win the Paraguay game to set the tone. If we do not beat Paraguay, the fans, general public, and media will all be at their throats, and the negativity will get to us. And if those players walk out to their home World Cup opener in front of tens of thousands of empty seats, or if those remaining seats are snatched up by Paraguay fans, the team will be irreparably demoralized. If prices do not drop and those tickets remain largely unsold, the US is doomed and will likely finish last.

 

How is this going to happen? You think Spain will finish second???

 

It will sellout. FIFA is not going to allow this type of match to be played with empty seats.

 

Argentina may finish 2nd.

 

Even that seems a little far fetched. But Austria is a decent squad.

 

I was being somewhat facetious, but the odds of it happening are higher than you think. I'll use the odds from DraftKings sports book. Spain is -450 to win their group, which implies an 82% chance of wining the group. Argentina is -340, which implies 77% of winning. Assume that if they don't win the group, they finish 2nd (which I think is fair). So the odds of:
Spain 1st vs. Argentina 2nd = .82 x .23 = 18.9%
Spain 2nd vs. Argentina 1st = .18 x .77 = 13.9%

Combined, that's 32.8%. Basically, a one third chance of that happening. Like I said, more likely than you would think.

 

I don’t really use odds in my prognostications. More eye test, how I see the teams match up with weaknesses and strengths, history , intangibles like climate, support in stands, etc.

But hey upsets occur and there’s always a chance for surprises.

 

It's less farfetched than Spain finishing 2nd or 3rd in a weaker group

 

I dont think its far fetched at all. Argentina will have a hard time in this group. People also sleeping on Algeria. I give it close to 50% that Argentina doesn't top their group, while I give Spain close to 80% they top their group.

 

There's plenty of room for eye tests - matchups, player fitness, etc. And things can change right up until match time. That's what makes it fun!

 

After watching them recently (Ghana, Uruguay friendlies) I'm pretty confident Austria are better than Algeria, the latter have pace on the wings and good technical players but tactically speaking they seem like they're a tier below the austrians and have somewhat of a sketchy defense. But what worries me more than these teams is the level of some of our players, we can lose to both if some tough decisions aren't made by our coach.

 

Argentina will get some magical penalties and FKs that will bail them out. Just wait.

Seriously if they were playing this in Europe or Africa or Asia I may agree with you. But they are one of the de facto home teams in the USA so I would be shocked if they do not finish first. They do not want to finish second.

 

I've seen this movie many times.

Ex champion relying on old players. It never ends well.

Algeria and Austria are both full of youth, fast, and technical players. Argentina will struggle.

Croatia is another team I see doing poorly.

 

The defence is Algerias weakness, which Argentina could exploit. They will definately put Argentinas defence under pressure though.

 

I would love to see it happen the way you are predicting.
However you also said they would not win the Copa America and we saw how that turned out in the USA.
I think more than likely it will be Argentina vs. Uruguay in Miami. But we shall see.


If Algeria is missing their starting keeper it makes it more difficult for me to see your movie.

 

I mean we played like ass the entire Copa except for like the last 30 minutes and extra-time of the final (when Messi got injured).

De Paul shouldn't even be in the squad, Messi should be benched. Yet it's likely they will both start the first game.
What gives me hope is that in Qatar Scaloni didn't hesitate to bench half of the team after losing a match and then 4 more players after playing poorly in the second one. But I fear he's grown too emotionally attached to some players to do it again.

 

Austria has been in great form these past years but I always doubt the second grade european teams that go into World Cups doing great, they often disappoint once the tournament starts.

But if they play at the level they should be, they can definitely give Argentina some hard time.

 

Well they definitely should lower prices. I had two chances to get them through that lottery and the second I saw the prices, I walked out on the option. No chance whatsoever I can pay that much money on my salary for that. Could travel across the world for family for the same price as one freaking ticket to that game in a terrible seat. No thanks.

 

At the very least, it's a far more challenging group than the one they faced in Qatar, even with the fluke Saudi Arabia loss.

 

I think people may be overrating Austria a tad bit (myself included) due to how good they looked in the Euros.
They have not played in a World Cup since ‘98 and really did not look all that great in that tournament.
It is similar to Norway and Scotland. I have no idea how they will play against teams outside of their confederation because they rarely play teams outside of Europe.
I think they are in good position to advance but beating Argentina may be asking too much.

 

You are really referencing 1998 with regards to Austria ?

What on earth does that team have to do with the current team ?

Personally I dont think Argentina is going to do well in this tournament, I've already given my reasons, mainly they are an old side. Austria is exactly the type of team that would beat Argentina. Yeah yeah, they won the Copa. That was 2 years ago, an eternity for an old side like Argentina.

Algeria also will trouble Argentina, but their defence is not as solid as Austria's. Either way I think Argentina will have a very tough match against these 2 teams.

And if Jordan low block the hell out of Argentina (likely) they could struggle in this game as well.

Again I give Argentina roughly a 50% chance of topping this group. I really dont think its any higher than that.

 

Mexico is the most likely of the hosts to win its group.

Canada plays Switzerland last. This puts them in a good position to get at least four points before this game. Switzerland is the favorite, but I see Canada with an outside chance of winning the group.

US is the least likely host to win its group. I don't like Paraguay and Turkey in the group. They are better teams than people give them credit for. That opening game against Paraguay has 0 x 0 written all over it. Beating Australia is an absolute must for the US.

Ecuador over Germany on group E.

Japan over Netherlands on group F, setting up a Brazil X Netherlands do-or-die round of 32 match.

Group I - most difficult to predict. Norway wins the group, France beats Senegal for 2nd place. These three could finish in any order.

 

Just difficult to determine anything when Argentina has a bunch of veterans who know how to win tournaments and also win in the USA.
Sure it was two years ago but they have not declined that much to lose to second tier teams. But I hope I am wrong.

 

This makes a lot of upsets! I’m not sure that we will see so many at once (we will for sure see some, as it’s been the case for every World Cup).