2026 World Cup Group Stage Predictions:

It's definitely not. Oldsters like baseball, kids not so much. Today it's very fractured other than the NFL. NFL just pulls eyeballs like nothing else. Basketball pushes the next most in terms of young people, Baseball pulls probably more than soccer, but likely does not when you factor in the key demos, and especially if you add the #'s Univision, Telemundo, and streaming and YouTube etc.

Whatever issues soccer has here these days? That's about MLS being a lesser league, and the USMNT being a disaster 2015-2019, and the past 2 years....in general, you look at Champions League, all the big European Leagues, Liga MX etc, it's like 10 or 20x the size it was in '94. Not remotely the same.

The game is clicking here in a way it simply wasn't in the eighties and nineties.

 

I don't think they're overrated, nobody rates them. They're an unusual team in that they got some good results the past two qualification cycles, did pretty well, Nigeria is home because of them this cycle, last cycle Ghana should have been home because of them. At the AFCON they were okay this winter, but in '23 they made a run to the semi's and were only defeated on penalties by Silver Finishing Nigeria. Not bad. But of late, there's not really anything in the results to suggest the potential that they may get something done. Otoh, there are no excellent teams in their group. Czech has largely been meh, El Tri is not what they were '94-'18, and South Korea is just plain erratic. So if South Africa can rediscover their form from '22-'24 in particular, they could do something, but their most recent results against Panama were just not impressive. I'm hoping they can pull a surprise, but it's not looking good of late.

 

You are correct.

 

All the teams in this group are erratic quite frankly.

I favor Mexico because their at home and have more big game experience than the other teams. Their form also seems to be on the upward lately. It's been pretty mediocre the last few years.

South Africa have pulled off results against Nigeria, Morocco, etc. So they won't be overawed by any team in this group. They can also be pretty average as well. They sometimes struggle to impose themselves over some weak teams. So it depends which SA shows up.

Same with Korea. They can be really good and times, other times they can be horrible.

Czechia hasn't been to a world cup for ages, and didnt really distinguish themselves at the euro.

This group is like the US group. No really great teams, but no really bad teams either. The US group is a step better in overall quality, but the same dynamic applies. The hosts should top. The next 3 could really be in any order. Ultimately all the games should be close. In the end no result in any of the 2 groups would surprise me.

 

Nice analogy with Group D. I think you're probably right though seems like the early betting lines suggest Group A's South African is an outsider in a way nobody, not even Australia is seen as one in D.

One x factor I started thinking about after my absurdly long group break down post yesterday was the weather/climate factor.

Group A will have every single game impacted by weather, climate and/or altitude save 1.

South Africa vs Mexico opener will be played at high altitude and it won't be at night so while it may not be blisteringly hot, it will be at least somewhat hot. Advantage Mexico.

Czech vs South Korea will be played at warm to very warm and humid Zapopan. The only plus for the Czech's is that it will be at night. But I think South Korea is far more ready to deal with such humidity than the Czech's, advantage South Korea.

Matchday 2:
Czech's and South Africa: Played in Atlanta's domed stadium. Advantage Czech's.
South Korea vs Mexico in Zapopan at night. Advantage: Neutral

Matchday 3:
Czech's vs Mexico: Azteca/Altitude but at night. Advantage: Mexico
South Korea vs South Africa: Guadalupe, hot, humid and evening. Advanage: South Korea

I definitely feel like South Korea and Mexico have the advantage when it comes to this group, both squads grew up in hot and humid climates in terms of the summer and to some extent in general, South Africa, it depends where they're from, sounds like South Africa ranges from hot and dry and hot and humid to warm and dry. Czech's are not built for this at all.

So it makes me even more down on the Czech's than I already was.

 

Ok, next time you're in a pub (in the U.S.), approach a random guy and ask him what he thinks about the new format of the European Champions League.

 

Me: Excuse me sir, sir! I would have you KNOW that people in this BAR wanna watch UEFA Champions League on that TV.

Regular dude: UEFA? Is that what they are calling the women's NBA now?

Me: What-what?! How dare you sir? It's European soccer!

Regular dude: Look buddy, I think you want the lounge bar across the street: Flaming Moe's. Very popular with them Eurotrash fellas.

 

Here's how I would evaluate it:
Go to Elementary Schools, Middle Schools, High Schools, Colleges, and yes sports bars, and then collect streaming data and social media data.

Compare to 1984, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, and 2009....

You are going to find ENORMOUS differences in terms of familiarity with EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Champions League, the World Cup, the Euro's, the athletes involved, team jersey sales etc.

Are you gonna find a lot of oldsters, and 30somethings and 40somethings that only pay attention to football, basketball, baseball? Yes, but the younger the demo, the ratio of soccer aware, the # of people who know who Messi, or Yamal, or Ronaldo is, who have heard of Real Madrid, or Barcelona, or ManU or whatever, will grow ever higher the younger you go, and the years in which you check from the mid 80's to midway through last decade.

It is absolutely night and day. Every school I've worked at has infinitely higher soccer jersey's sported 2020-2025 versus 2001-2005 or 2006-2010. And comparing to the 90's is even more comically distinct.

I'm not arguing soccer has replaced baseball, or basketball, clearly it hasn't, but it has caught up and passed hockey, especially if you focus on age based demographics and regional demo's. Additionally it is growing faster than Baseball, only Football and Basketball have a firmer hold on young people's sporting interests.

 

How would you collect streaming data pre-2004?

 

Yeah. Also, there's just way more of everything available to us now in terms of live sports that are viewable. I had to listen on the radio for a lot of the games of my favorite teams when I was a kid.

The Messi example is not a good one, IMO. There were similarities with Pele coming to NASL in the 70s. Also, the Messi obsession points to this being a small-time footballing nation, if anything. If he moved to England or Germany instead of MLS, it wouldn't have had nearly as much impact on ticket prices or demand in those countries.

If there's a futbol-related question on Jeopardy, there's 50% chance the answer is Messi or Ronaldo. Guess why?

 

Im going to predict potential surprises in this World Cup.

I correctly predicted Morocco and Japan (to a lesser extent, but they topped a murderous group) to be the big surprises of 2022.

Now for 2026 Im going to define "surprise" as a team going further than they have ever gone in recent times, or possibly attaining a high result they haven't matched in a very long time.

1. Austria - They haven't been to the knockouts since 1982. I feel they will make the knockouts and possibly go a few rounds, perhaps to the R16 or quarters.

2. Ivory Coast - Never made it to the knockouts. Pretty sure they will this time around, and they are a side with a lot of attacking talents, and could surprise some bigger sides.

3. Portugal - Not a serious surprise, but haven't been to the semis since 2006. A possible first time winner, and a decent shot to make the semis for first time in 20 years.

4. Canada- Another team to never make knockouts who should, and could go on a few game run.

Most likely

New Winner: Portugal
New Semi Finalist: Senegal
New Quarter Finalist: Japan
New 16 Round: Ivory Coast & Canada

 

to me, Portugal's group is the most balanced, despite I think, they can even take the who world cup (after slowly coming into the tournament at group stage).

At least, I do not see Colombia far ahead of DR Congo and Uzbekistan.

People are underestimating Uzbekistan way too much, I think.

 

Interesting.

I personally am not taking anything for granted. I can see all matches being close.
That said, what makes me confident about the Uzbekistan match is that is is at high altitude. That factor can play into the hands of a Colombian team that will keep possession and make them chase for 90 minutes. That may be very draining. Also, from what I have seen the Uzbekistan weakness is the right side of their back line. They may have to double team Lucho Diaz which may free up other players for opportunities. Let's see how Cannavaro prepares them.

The Congo match is also at Altitude but not as high. But Colombia has more experience and a little more quality. I see it being a close match but Colombia should eke out a win.

 

I watched the intercontinental playoff vs. Jamaica where DR Congo played in the very same stadium and they looked great. They should have won that match 4-1.

 

They won 1-0 against a bad Jamaica team. Not in regulation.

 

I dont know if the altitude actually helps the better team. If anything it might be an equalizer that sucks the energy out of both teams making the game more even.

The DR Congo v Jamaica game was a lot closer than it should have been, even though DRC were dominant.

I think the altitude games make a draw much more likely than if the same teams play at sea level.

 

We shall see. I know Colombia has a lot more experience playing at altitude (higher than Mexico) and that sorta preparation comes in handy.

But as I said, it will be interesting to see how Cannavaro prepares the Uzbeks. Not too many teams on the planet can contain Diaz right now. Even with double teams.

 

Despite what people say about the 48 team expansion I feel there are very few poor teams, that other teams will be able to just show up and beat.

To me right now its Qatar and Curacao.

And even with these 2 teams, they are in really bad form right now and have had better days, so they could theoretically improve.

 

Probably Saudi Arabia as well.

 

You would hope that COL had learned by now how to apply that *more experience playing at altitude*.

However, during its last match at high altitude, COL players had to use portable oxygen tanks during the first half:
- October 2024: loss 1-0 @ El Alto, Bolivia.

As @vancity eagle said, high-altitude becomes an *equalizer*, dragging both teams to lower performance levels.

https://www.elpais.com.co/deportes/...-el-alto-en-el-partido-ante-bolivia-1004.html

 

That was at the highest city in all of qualifying history . Very different animal than Mexico.

Quito had very little issues in contrast. Colombia could have won that one against Ecuador and in some ways should have.

Keep things in proper perspective.

 

Mexico City has a similar altitude to Bogota.

Also, statistically Colombia, Chile and Ecuador have the best historical record playing Bolivia away. I don't think it's a coincidence. Players from andean countries generally adapt better to playing in high altitude.

 

Yup.
No coincidence Colombia is playing a match in Bogota in late May and also will have their home training base in Mexico so that could help a little bit. At least mentally and strategically.

But of course talent and quality should be focused upon and it is going to be difficult for teams to stop Lucho and and this team if they are at top gear no matter where the games are played.

 

How long is this "bad form" going to last for Qatar? We all expected them to be poor (and they were) 4 years ago also. They're just not that good, I'd argue.

I guess that's one beauty of expanding so fast. We have several poor teams, so they don't stand out like a Qatar in 2022, Panama in 2018 or North Korea in 2010.

If any of Jordan, Haiti, Panama, Qatar, Curacao, New Zealand, Cabo Verde and Scotland were part of a 32-team WC field we'd probably look at them the same way we looked at North Korea in 2010 - in over their heads.

 

Interesting that you left out both Andean nations PER+VEN from those La Paz stats, sucky Andean teams who do not fit that narrative. Check out visitor stats at high-altitude Quito, and see how PER overtakes other teams in the region.

If we are truthful, Quito and Bogota are closer to each other in altitude, much more than Bogota is to Mexico City.

Meters above sea level at each venue:
- El Alto at La Paz: 4150m
- Atahualpa at Quito: 2850m
- Campin at Bogota: 2640m
- Azteca at Mexico City: 2280m

COL stopped playing at Bogota midway of its 2010 qualifiers. Rivals who historically had never won at Quito/La Paz had managed wins at Bogota. By the time COL switched to sea-level Barranquilla, the damage was already done:

- COL (23pts) missed qualifying to 2010 WC by 2 points.
- URU (24pts) earned the last Conmebol WC slot, with a victory at Bogota. URU went on to beat CRC in intercontinental playoffs.

It seems to me that lower Mexico City does not fit the high-altitude venue discussion, considering how *soft-altitude* Bogota was so quickly discarded by COL itself.