2026 World Cup Group Stage Predictions:

The US should be fine imo. I think they beat Paraguay and Australia, and maybe take a draw against Turkey to finish with 7 points. But who really knows, it's a very even group overall.

If I have to predict the standings now though, I'd say:

USA
Turkey
Paraguay
Australia

Not sure about the exact points tallies but I think this is the most likely order for the four teams to finish in.

I think Mexico also tops its group, and Canada advances in either second or third but more likely second.

 

Belgium will not get 9 points imo, I could even see them screwing up against New Zealand. It wouldn't shock me to see them finish with as few as 5 points in the group.

Croatia I think are massively overrated currently, and I give England a decent chance of actually getting all 9 points from the group.

Austria are looking solid recently and could give Argentina some trouble. I'm confident they'll finish at least second in the group.

 

Curacao seem really bad and I think will probably get hammered in every game. Qatar, Haiti, and Iraq are not a lot better but might be able to avoid total humiliation.

 

I agree on the most likely order of the US group, though it really could go any way.

Mexico likely tops their group which is fairly weak.

I highly doubt Canada finishes 3rd. I think its more likely they top the group than finishing 3rd. Bosnia isn't that good.

 

Yeah I see England getting 9. Not expecting much from Croatia.

Austria and Algeria will both give Argentina a hard time. The champs better be prepared.

 

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree on Canada. I think I maybe just put too much stock into Bosnia's playoff success. But Canada are probably objectively the better side and are playing at home, so by all means really should be finishing in the top two.

Mexico's group would be somewhat more even on neutral ground, but playing at home I really can't see them slipping up. The Czechs aren't very good on the whole, and South Korea have some talented players but not enough to top the group ahead of the co-hosts.

Ironically the US group actually looks the toughest of the three co-hosts' now despite the initial draw reactions. I think they should probably be fine all things said and done but overall:

Turkey > Czechia > Bosnia.
Australia = South Korea but both probably slightly worse than Switzerland.
Paraguay is a significantly better team from Pot 3 than South Africa or Qatar.

Not a "group of death" by any means, but if the US doesn't turn up they could easily drop points in any of the three games.

Turkey are a genuinely good team lately, I actually thought during the draw that if anything I'd rather avoid them than the Italians (moot point now that Bosnia have taken the latter's place).

 

Im going with the most logical predictions in all groups then I will highlight potential surprises.

Group A

Mexico
South Korea
Czechia
South Africa

Fairly confident Mexico tops. The next 3 could really be any order. South Africa is believe actually do play at altitude and would probably be best suited for conditions other than Mexico, so who knows.

Group B

Switzerland
Canada
Bosnia
Qatar

Canada could top, but fairly straightforward.

Group C

Brazil
Morocco
Scotland
Haiti

Morocco could also top, but more likely Brazil.

Group D

USA
Turkey
Paraguay
Australia

Could be almost any order tbh, it this is most likely.

Group E

Germany
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
Curacao

Germany will top. Very hard to choose between Ecuador and CIV. High chance they draw. CIV has a much better attack. Ecuador have a slightly better defence. Game will be decided in midfield. CIV more likely to beat Curacao by higher margin. Ecuador more likely to lose to Germany by lower margin, or even draw.

Group F

Netherlands
Japan
Sweden
Tunisia

Japan could top.

Group G

Belgium
Egypt
Iran
New Zealand

Belgium is the worst non hosting seed, but this group isn't that tough. Maybe Iran gets 2nd.

Group H

Spain
Uruguay
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia

Maybe the bottom 2 switch places.

Group I

France
Senegal
Norway
Iraq

Top 3 theoretically could be any order, I think most likely surprise would be Senegal topping the group.

Group J

Argentina
Austria
Algeria
Jordan

Most likely this but I think the possibility of Argentina finishing 3rd is not as unlikely as some may think.

Group K

Portugal
Colombia
DR Congo
Uzbekistan

Very likely outcome.

Group L

England
Croatia
Ghana
Panama

England tops for sure. Ghana could possibly surprise Croatia.

 

One match. The exception to the rule.

 

Do you have stats for this? The most obvious and common example is US-Mexico, but I feel like the US has a pretty good home record against Mexico the past ~20 years or so. The "dos-a-cero" thing wasn't born in the Azteca.

A large, swindled baseball crowd eating junk food from kick off to final whistle. Hope the team is not counting on them.

 

I would save this discussion for when BigSoccer finally puts up separate forums for each group.

When is that happening BTW?

 

The dos-a-cero thing was born in the Columbus Crew stadium. Pro- USA crowds.

USA lost to Costa Rica at home in New Jersey in qualifiers a few cycles ago and it felt more like a Tico crowd than a USA one.

 

This is not the type of crowd that will be in the USA. Especially in Seattle.

This is not 1970.

 

We'll see. It was baseball crowd in 1994.

 

This is not 1994. Do you have a calendar?

 

meh. The sports culture is the same as 1994 though. Americans are not talking about the upcoming WC. They're talking about baseball, the NBA playoffs. Even the WNBA draft is getting more talk.

 

Nope. You are completely wrong.

In recent tournaments World Cup sells more tickets to fans from the USA more than any other traveling fans in the World.
That did not happen in the 70s, 80s, 90s.

Take a look at environments like Seattle. Those fans are not baseball fans.

 

They were not really talking about Hockey either and those fans are very loyal, faithful and know how to make some noise.
So it does not matter what the legacy media is talking about.

 

Absolutely agreed. Scotland have a manager who is all about tactics and being tough to beat, but they can score, too.

With regards to USA, Cameron Carter Vickers is a big loss for them as he is for my Celtic. He could make their defense solid. Auston Trusty is decent, but can have his bad moments, and then plays a world class game the next time. I think USA can finish second.

 

Scotland on the long hiatus from the World Cup just does not play against competition outside of Europe much. Maybe they can grit their way to some surprising draws and a win against Haiti but I will have to see them do it before I truly believe they can advance. They are the one Euro team I think can finish last without really batting an eye or raising an eyebrow.

 

Oh you're now talking about soccer fans living in the US? That's a U-turn in the discussion. Yes, there are plenty of soccer fans. But as usual you've shifted the goalposts.

Soccer fans in the US is a very fragmented group. Its not all US-born/US citizens/US supporters. Why do you think MLS isn't a top league despite being the main league in the country where the most WC fans are located?

 

Yes. This is true. It is including all fans living in the USA. But if you have actually watched World Cups and the matches involving USA fans the amount of people traveling to USA matches has increased considerably compared to the 70s, 80s and 90s. No goal posts shifted.

 

Czechia? Scraped by to the WC, and don't offer much. Not saying they will definitely finish last, but greater chance of that than Scotland being last.
Also, Sweden is iffy, despite big names.