2026 World Cup Group Stage Predictions:

Nope, thanks for the heads up.

 

I think I'm going w/this as my final predictions pending this weekends friendlies (which might cause me to tweak things):

A:
Mexico
South Korea
Czech-Advance as 3rd place team.
South Africa

B:
Switzerland
Canada
Bosnia
Qatar

C:
Brazil
Morocco
Scotland-Advance as 3rd place team.
Haiti

D:
USA
Turkey
Australia-Advance as 3rd place team
Paraguay

E:
Germany
Ivory Coast
Ecuador-Advance as third place team
Curacao

F:
Netherlands
Japan
Sweden-Advance as third place team
Tunisia

G:
Belgium
Egypt
Iran
New Zealand

H:
Spain
Uruguay
Cape Verde
S. Arabia

I:
France
Norway
Senegal-Advance as third place team
Iraq

J:
Argentina
Algeria
Austria-Advance as a third place team
Jordan

K:
Colombia
Portugal
DR Congo-Advance as a third place team
Uzbekistan

L:
England
Croatia
Ghana
Panama

The hardest things for me to figure? Who will win A (I really am not buying Mexico, but they drew pretty nice options from Pot 2, 3 and 4, so maybe they win anyway?), I can't decide if Bosnia is gonna tie Canada on points, or just flame out ugly. My Group D is a mess, I have consistently picked Turkey but my US homerism and hopium has me taking the US, who finishes third is difficult but Australia's record of punching above their way for 20 years just has me erring towards them. Ivory Coast vs Ecuador feels wrong, just like Group D, I consistently have put Ecuador at 2nd over Ivory Coast, mostly because I think their D, plus the fact that they get Germany w/Germany having potentially won the group is better than Ivory Coast getting them in the 2nd match when they will need something from it, but I also think Ivory Coast is more likely to win if either side ends up winning their opening matchup because of the issues Ecuador has at striker and scoring goals in general, so I ended up flipping them. Group F it's more of the same: who to take between Japan and Sweden for 2nd? I am erring towards Japan in part due to better ability to handle the weather, but also because of their history of maxing their potential and the fact that Sweden was straight up horse ---- in WCQ. In I, it's yet another group where figuring out 2nd place is pretty difficult. Senegal in my book has been immense the past 9 years, Norway suddenly erupted out of nowhere over the past two years to dominate their group, eviscerating Italy along the way. Norway looks better currently, but man, if that June 22nd is hot and humid, I'm going with Senegal. For now, Norway, weather permitting.I actually put Algeria ahead of Austria last week after going b ack and forth on it quite a bit, so interesting that Algeria beat the Dutch today. I can't decide if that match will be a draw, or an Algeria win. but the fact that it's being played in KC near July makes me think Algeria will just handle the weather better, KC can reach the mid 90's in June, and while it's a night game, it should still be pretty hot and muggy.

Wrapping up with K and L, those groups seem pretty straight forward, In K, the decisive feature for me is the ultimate match between Portugal and Colombia to wrap the group will be played in Miami, so yeah, I am 1000% giving that to Colombia, a ton of fans in Florida from Colombia AND Miami is insanely hot and miserable in general in June and July, so while its warm in Portugal, I'm giving the advantage to Colombia, group winners. DRC has a hot at shocking the world and taking second, but they are already going to be up against it with this ebola nightmare happening, how many fans even make it to the US? I'll be cheering them on, but I think everything will hinge on them putting together enough goals to grab the last of the 3rd place tickets. I'm betting on it for now. It will be quite difficult though, and would be made far easier if they can steal a point when playing Colombia or Portugal in their opening 2 matches. As for England's group, I've got England winning and Croatia in 2nd. Ghana just hasn't been impressive in a good 12 years at this point, AFCON or WC, while Panama is just not a very good team, and now they're old. The only hope they have is they'll be playing England and Croatia in hot and humid northeast which they'll be fine with but even that isn't enough.

 

It will be interesting to see the breakdown by confederation of the final 32 teams and which confederations send more, the same, and fewer teams compared to the slot allocation of the 32-team WCs.

What are your predictions in that regard? As a reminder, here were the allocations in 2022:


AFC: 4.5
CAF: 5
CONCACAF: 4.5 (including +1 as hosts)
CONMEBOL: 4.5
OFC: 0.5
UEFA: 13

At first thought, I think C'CAF are the least likely to equal their "normal" allocation while UEFA is the most likely to exceed it. I also think this will be CAF's most successful WC ever, but not sure if they will exceed their normal allocation of 5. But take this with a grain of salt, because I still need to fill my brackets.

 

This would be very interesting in principle, but this World Cup is proceeding in a manner that is quite discriminatory when it comes to teams from regions such as the AFC (western AFC in particular), CAF, and some other regions. For certain teams, Iran in particular, the whole circumstances make this tournament a farce. Our team had to change its plans to camp in Arizona and arrive very late (just yesterday) in Mexico after a long (almost 24 hour) flight. No time to actually adjust to the new time or even the jet lag. Then the team, minus some of its staff who were denied visas, has to travel to the US on a 1 day visa each time for each match. And that is assuming the US immigration will let many of the players with visa in the country as several of them (e.g. Taremi, Khalilzadeh, Torabi...) have all done mandatory service for the revolutionary guards. When you look how one of Iraq's players was detained in the airport for 7 hours, and you consider the fact that Iranian players won't be able to spend time in the US and have to fly out right after each game, the circumstances don't look at all appropriate. On top of that, there is then all sorts of other issues that the team faces due to political and war time conditions. Not least, the fact that these players and their coach will then have to face real hostility from the anti-regime political activists in the US all alone and with little sense that they will be properly protected by the host country and its authorities.

The whole thing looks ridiculous to me. To a much lesser extent, however, there are many other teams outside the established football countries which face issues they shouldn't be facing at the World Cup....Otherwise, I would be extremely interested to look at how many teams from each confederation make the round of 32.

 

CONCACAF's 2nd tier is so incredibly poor right now that it hurts. Thankfully Canada found its footing and has basically risen to the level of Mexico/US. IMO Panama is the same as it usually is, its just that Costa Rica/Honduras/Jamaica are actively terrible. Curacao is doing good work in the dual national game but the odds are they will be grouped.

5 good teams in CONCACAF SHOULD be the norm but it just isn't happening. Costa Rica should be so much better than they are but they haven't produced a player of note in like 10 years. Jamaica's dual national game should be so strong that they should be the #3 team in CONCACAF without fail. Seriously Jamaica's best starting 11 could be EPL/Championship mainstays.

 

Group A: Mexico 9(+5), Korea 4(+1), Czechia 4(-1), South Africa 0(-5)
Group B: Switzerland 9(+6), Canada 6(+3), Bosnia 3(-3), Qatar 0(-6)
Group C: Brazil 9(+4), Morocco 4(+2), Scotland 4(+1), Haiti 0(-7)
Group D: Turkey 9(+4), Paraguay 4(0), Australia 2(-1), USA 1(-3)
Group E: Ecuador 7(+5), Germany 7(+5), Ivory Coast 3(0), Curacao 0(-10)
Group F: Netherlands 7(+4), Japan 7(+3), Sweden 1(-3), Tunisia 1(-4)
Group G: Belgium 7(+3), Egypt 5(+2), Iran 4(+1), New Zealand 0(-6)
Group H: Spain 9 (+10), Uruguay 6(+1), Cape Verde 1(-5), Saudi Arabia 1(-6)
Group I: France 5(+3), Norway 5(+2), Senegal 5(+1), Iraq 0(-6)
Group J: Argentina 9(+5), Algeria 4(-1), Austria 2(-1), Jordan 1(-3)
Group K: Colombia 7(+3), Portugal 7(+2), Uzbekistan 1(-2), DR Congo 1(-3)
Group L: England 9(+7), Croatia 6(+2), Panama 3(-2), Ghana 0(-7)

 

Group A
All fairly equal teams on paper, but the venues and their climate/altitude combinations will decide matters, IMO. Mexico had to have prepared well to be the hosts, and they should top the group, but not flawlessly. They probably draw a game 0-0. South Korea have a manager who's being criticized tactically, but they are doing high-altitude training and do not mind hot, humid weather at all. If the manager selects potent runners, they should outlast anyone bar Mexico. South Africa can play well, but defense might be leaky. Czechia weren't great in the qualifers, and have no natural resistance to weather and altitude conditions. If they do something, it will be because they are by far the tallest team in the group.
1. Mexico
2. South Korea
3. South Africa (Q)
4. Czechia
Group B
A group with much milder weather, which favors all but Qatar. Switzerland should top the group, because they are full of solid performers in most positions. Bosnia and Herzegovina to be second, because Canada do not look good defensively - I think any B&H striker could give their CB-s issues. They will beat Qatar, though. Qatar really don't have much to offer.
1. Switzerland
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina
3. Canada
4. Qatar
Group C
A true hellscape with the venues. One would think Brazil should have an advantage, but they have some really suspicious call-ups in their roster (defense especially), their star players are whiny primadonnas - not leaders, and Morocco know how to defend, while at least familiar with heat, not so much humidity. At least Morocco can get a draw against Brazil, and I fancy them finishing first, actually. Scotland have done well in friendlies, but Haiti in sweltering heat will be a test. I was bullish on Scotland's chances before, but I now feel it will be a draw, and Scotland finish last, I fear.
1. Morocco
2. Brazil
3. Haiti
4. Scotland
Group D
Very hard to call. Even Turkey, who stands out a bit, aren't perfect and can be wayward, but I think they do get two wins to go through as first. USA concede a lot, enabling the likes of Paraguay to nab a shock win against them even though they are a defensive SA team. I think Australia can eke out a draw or two, but since a fair few games will be played in Seattle or Vancouver, they don't get help from hot weather.
1. Turkey
2. Paraguay
3. USA (Q)
4. Australia
Group E
Germany to top this, I guess. Against Ivory Coast they won't have to play in blistering heat, and I don't think they get beat. Ecuador could get two draws and a win, because they are a fortress with lattack issues. At the same time, Ivory coast could get the same, and it might come down to GD, so Ivory Coast with better attack go 2. Curacao are simply outmatched in this group.
1. Germany
2. Ivory Coast
3. Ecuador (Q)
4. Curacao
Group F
Japan are mentally focused on felling the giants of football, and Netherlands are one. Their press can strangle anyone's build-up, while the low block mode could stall attacks that aren't direct. Koeman's only hope is playing Weghorst from the start, since Japan have no 190 cm+ tall CB in the roster (no Machida, Takai or Ando). Japan could struggle against Tunisia, however, and it will be a test of Moriyasu's learning curve. Tunisia likely get a point there, so they would need to beat someone to qualify, and that is Sweden. They have issues Potter simply can't fix on short notice, and very high-profile injuries. Weather will absolutely not suit them, either.
1. Japan
2. Netherlands
3. Tunisia (Q)
4. Sweden
Group G
A mess for political reasons. While Belgium should beat Egypt and Iran on paper, I don't think they are above a draw with Egypt, who have good players up top. Iran will try to be sturdy, and their fans will hope the experienced squad will have the focus to block out politics and beat New Zealand, which I think they can. Then, they have to stall Egypt out to get the 4. point, which is doable, as Egypt have the harder first game. The Kiwis won't go through, but they might cause a distressed Iran to crash out.
If I'm wrong here, and Iran and USA finish 2. in their respective groups, there will be a match of bigger importance than the final itself, right in R32.
1. Belgium
2. Egypt
3. Iran (Q)
4. New Zealand
Group H
Pretty boring group. Spain legitimately will get 9 points here, because Uruguay have a manager who is a bad fit for their roster. If they had a defensive genius, they could frustrate the Red Fury. This way, no. Second place is safe though. Cape Verde probably have more professionalism than Saudi Arabia, and thus finish third.
1. Spain
2. Uruguay
3. Cape Verde
4. Saudi Arabia
Group I
Group of death. Deschamps' cautious style may cost him first spot in the group on GD, because others may rack it up better. also, I think Senegal have what it takes to force a draw here. The enigma is Norway, who won't like the heat at all, but have an attack not much worse than France while not afraid to take charge of games. I am going to say they top the group on GD somehow since their first game is against the group minnow.
1. Norway
2. France
3. Senegal (Q)
4. Iraq
Group J
I originally thought Argentina could slip up here and finish second to a well-organized, intense Austria. While I think they will not beat Austria, the heat combined with Austria's aging forward options and a stamina-consuming gegenpress system means they are likely to drop points to either Algeria or even Jordan. Argentina don't mind the heat, on the other hand. Algeria should beat Jordan.
1. Argentina
2. Austria
3. Algeria
4. Jordan
Group K
Due to Roberto Martinez managing Portugal and the toxic dominance of CR7 on the NT leading to him being undroppable, I do not see them topping Colombia, who will enjoy bountiful support and have more resistance to humidity than Portugal. R. Martinez' teams underachieve. Congo should trouble anyone with physicality and running, while conditions don't suit Uzbekistan at all.
1. Colombia
2. Portugal
3. DR Congo (Q)
4. Uzbekistan
Group L
England, for all of their top contender status, have always had a mentality issue. If things go well against Croatia, they will them drop points in one of the other two games - this is almost a rule. The heat will hurt them, as well. Croatia's problem is an aged starting lineup, and a general lack of pace in the midfield and forward areas. The strikers, though on form at their respective clubs, do not match the overall playing style of the defense and midfield (all those in form prefer crosses, not through balls or passes into feet). Thus, the manager will go for a defensive system yet again, with a strong defensive block alternating with possession for the sake of time wasting and resting. If the unfit Kovačić and Kramarić do not start, this has a chance of stalling England to a draw. I do expect Croatia to get 4 points at minimum, because Panama is also an aged squad, but with less talent. Ghana is a wildcard - how much could Queiroz have fixed them since he took over? My guess is they can get in as 3. by beating Panama and forcing a draw against Croatia because Dalić will not have rotated the squad enough to send fresh legs against the bountiful stamina and pace of Ghanaians.
1. England
2. Croatia
3. Ghana (Q)
4. Panama

 

Unlike for 2018 and 2022, FIFA has yet to confirm the slot distribution for WCs after this one, so performance by confederation in the group stage could be the basis for changes for the next WC.

 

Just for fun and to be different with upsets... To have a lot of the favorites not go #1 in the group is way more fun and interesting

Group A:
1. Mexico
2. South Korea
3. Czech Republic
4. South Africa

Group B:
1. Canada
2. Qatar
3. Switzerland
4. Bosnia Herzegovina

Group C:
1. Brazil
2. Morocco
3. Scotland
4. Haiti

Group D:
1. United States
2. Australia
3. Paraguay
4. Turkey

Group E:
1. Germany
2. Ecuador
3. Ivory Coast
4. Curaçao

Group F:
1. Japan
2. Netherlands
3. Sweden
4. Tunisia

Group G:
1. Belgium
2. New Zealand
3. Egypt
4. Iran

Group H:
1. Saudi Arabia
2. Uruguay
3. Spain
4. Cape Verde

Group I:
1. Senegal
2. Norway
3. France (sorry France) imagine being a 1seed playing this 3 seed lol. I really want them 4 just to hit on a +30000 bet. Would greatly help the ticket fund
4. Iraq

Group J:
1. Algeria
2. Argentina
3. Austria
4. Jordan

Group K:
1. Colombia
2. Portugal
3. Uzbekistan
4. DR Congo

Group L:
1. England
2. Croatia
3. Ghana
4. Panama

 

CONCACAF already confirmed that they will retain their current spot allocation for the next WC.

I'd expect the current allocation to at least continue until 2030

 

Probably should just say who do you think will get knocked out

Before r32

South Africa
Bosnia
Haiti
Turkey
Curacao
Tunisia
Iran... Would be exciting to see them overcome all the obstacles being thrown in their way though. Imagine they go #1 and go head to head with USA in Seattle in the r16!
Cape Verde
Iraq
Jordan
DR Congo
Panama

+4
Czechia
Egypt
Uzbekistan
Ghana

 

I think CAF could have a very good tournament this time.

Morocco and Senegal look the strongest bets to get through, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ivory Coast or Algeria also make a run. The expanded format probably helps teams with strong organisation more than people expect.

For CONCACAF, I’d trust USA, Mexico and Canada, but after that it feels much harder to predict. Panama can always make life difficult, but I’m not sure the depth is there compared with UEFA/CAF/AFC this time.

My rough Round of 32 by confederation would be something like:

UEFA: 12-14
CONMEBOL: 5-6
CAF: 5-6
AFC: 4-5
CONCACAF: 3-4
OFC: 0-1

Could be completely wrong, but that’s what makes the new format interesting.

 

My final group stage predictions

* = Qualified best 3rd

Group A:
1. Mexico
2. Czech Republic
3. South Korea *
4. South Africa

Group B:
1. Switzerland
2. Bosnia
3. Canada *
4. Qatar

Group C:
1. Brazil
2. Morocco
3. Scotland
4. Haiti

Group D:
1. Turkey
2. USA
3. Paraguay *
4. Australia

Group E:
1. Germany
2. Ecuador
3. Ivory Coast *
4. Curaçao

Group F:
1. Japan
2. Netherlands
3. Sweden *
4. Tunisia

Group G:
1. Belgium
2. Egypt
3. Iran *
4. New Zealand

Group H:
1. Spain
2. Uruguay
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Cape Verde

Group I:
1. France
2. Senegal
3. Norway *
4. Iraq

Group J:
1. Argentina
2. Algeria
3. Austria *
4. Jordan

Group K:
1. Portugal
2. Colombia
3. Uzbekistan
4. DRC

Group L:
1. England
2. Croatia
3. Ghana
4. Panama

 

Group A

Mexico
South Korea
Czechia
South Africa

Group B

Switzerland
Canada
Bosnia
Qatar

Group C

Brazil
Morocco
Scotland
Haiti

Group D

USA
Turkey
Paraguay
Australia

Group E

Germany
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
Curacao

Group F

Japan
Netherlands
Sweden
Tunisia

Group G

Belgium
Egypt
Iran
New Zealand

Group H

Spain
Uruguay
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia

Group I

France
Senegal
Norway
Iraq

Group J

Argentina
Algeria
Austria
Jordan

Group K

Portugal
Colombia
DR Congo
Uzbekistan

Group L

England
Croatia
Ghana
Panama

 

Yes, I forgot about that!

Thanks for the correction.

 

These Group J predictions of Algeria topping Austria suprise me.

 

Well, their stocks in my view dropped a bit after the injury of Baumgartner, think he's an important player. It's very close between these teams anyway.

 

This is what I'm predicting the make up of the final 32 will look like:
AFC: 3
CAF: 4
CONCACAF: 3
CONMEBOL: 6
OFC: 0
UEFA: 16

I have a lot of UEFA teams finishing third but getting enough points to advance. But that's obviously cutting things close so I'm not confident that all 16 UEFA teams will advance in reality.

I don't see C'BOL teams doing very well in this WC, but enough to get to the knockout stage (including 2 as 'best-third place' teams).

I still think CAF will have their best WC ever despite being in the red. Its just that their allocation in 32-team WCs was so inflated (5), its difficult to match or exceed that number through merit.

 

I'm going to go with my predictions...
Group A
Mexico
South Korea
Czechia
South Africa

Group B
Switzerland
Canada
Bosnia
Qatar

Group C
Brazil
Morocco
Scotland
Haiti

Group D
USA
Turkey
Australia
Paraguay

Group E
Germany
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
Curacao

Group F
Netherlands
Japan
Sweden
Tunisia

Group G
Belgium
Egypt
New Zealand
Iran

Group H
Spain
Uruguay
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia

Group I
Norway
France
Senegal
Iraq

Group J
Argentina
Austria
Algeria
Jordan

Group K
Colombia
Portugal
DR Congo
Uzbekistan

Group L
England
Croatia
Ghana
Panama

 

I have to give all you guys credit for making predictions.

The more I analyze the groups the more I waiver about who will finish in what order.

I am trying to keep an open mind and not just go with all favorites.

 

I just went with most probable in all groups, but I'm sure a number of those won't pan out.

 

is turkey so good this WC? I see most people putting them above Paraguay....

I dont know what to think about group A in regards to south korea and czech republic, i dont know who could finish second in group. Mexico as a local should finish 1st, but they could also choke...