2026 World Cup and 2027 Asian Cup Qualification process

Discussion in 'AFC: Tournaments' started by almango, Aug 2, 2022.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    While my ultimate conclusion isn't radically different than yours, I think your comments underestimate Iran and Iran's chances at the Asian Cup, especially against S. Korea. Our chances against S. Korea (absent any major injuries or suspensions) are close to 50/50.
     
  2. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    I cant see Iran winning against Japan at the moment. But I cant see why UAE should have a bigger chance than Iran. How much have they improved since the last World cup qualifiers? Im sure Iran are still are much better team than UAE
     
  3. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Iran is definitely better than the UAE in almost every category. I agree with that. And since the UAE doesn't have a really better chance of beating Japan either, it will probably be more confusing than enlightening for me to explain why I am even less hopeful of Iran upsetting Japan right now.

    My real point is to caution against judging our team's results against some of our rivals and opponents based merely on past history. Some of these teams have improved enough to be internationally noteworthy sides today. Others have improved enough to be challenging for any team around Iran's level. On top of all that, and even leaving aside the natural perils of having to overly rely on a handful of outstanding players still close to their prime but aging nonetheless, the truth is that the playing field for Iran's team will never be without its many extraneous (politically induced) challenges and obstacles. All in all, my view is that we need to temper some of our expectations a bit, despite being led by a rather capable, experienced, and football savvy coach.
     
  4. RaminS

    RaminS Member

    Dec 5, 2016
    At this point it looks like we are just winging it. 1966 Brazil scenario.
     
  5. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #130 Kamtedrejt, Dec 11, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2023
    I updated my AFC Ranking after I checked out extensive footage on the AFC WCQ matches played in November

    Here is my updated AFC Ranking as of December 2023 completed by *ratings (0.5 star the lowest and 5 stars the highest score) for quality and teamwork (which will be from now on an indispensable part of my rankings)

    __________________Overall Rating____Change Rating____Quality______Teamwork

    1. Japan_________________84.5_____________-___________4.5*_________5.0*
    2. South Korea___________81.5_____________+1__________4.0*_________4.0*
    3. Australia______________80.5_____________-0.5_________3.5*_________4.5*
    4. Iran___________________79_______________-1__________4.0*_________4.0*
    5. Saudi Arabia__________75.5_____________+2__________3.5*_________3.0*
    6. UAE___________________75______________+1__________3.0*_________3.0*
    7. Uzbekistan____________75_______________-___________3.0*_________3.5*
    8. Iraq___________________73.5____________+0.5_________3.0*_________3.0*
    9. Qatar_________________71.5_____________+1__________3.0*_________2.5*
    10. Bahrain______________69.5_____________-1___________3.0*_________2.5*
    11. Oman________________67.5______________-2__________2.5*________3.0*
    12. Jordan_______________67______________-1.5__________2.5*________3.0*
    13. Tajikistan_____________67_______________-____________2.5*________3.0*
    14. Palestine_____________67_______________+5***_______3.0*________3.0*
    15. China_________________66______________+0.5_________2.0*________2.5*
    16. North Korea___________66_______________+2__________2.0*________3.0*
    17. Thailand______________65.5_____________-1__________2.0*_________2.0*
    18. Syria_________________64.5_____________+0.5________2.0*_________1.5*
    19. Lebanon______________64.5______________-__________2.0*_________2.0*
    20. Vietnam______________64.5______________+1_________1.5*_________2.5*
    21. Indonesia_____________64.5______________-2_________2.0*_________1.5*
    22. India__________________64________________-__________1.5*_________1.5*
    23. Kuwait________________63.5_______________-2_________1.5*________1.5*
    24. Malaysia______________63.5______________+0.5________1.5*________1.5*
    25. Kyrgyzstan____________63_______________+2__________1.5*_________2.0*
    26. Turkmenistan__________61.5_____________+0.5________1.5*________1.5*
    27. Afghanistan____________61_______________-___________2.0*________1.0*
    28. Philippines_____________60.5______________-___________1.5*________0.5*
    29. Bangladesh____________60.5_____________+0.5________1.0*________1.5*

    Hong Kong dropped out of my top 150 ranking. I have now 29 Asian nations inside my top 150.

    *** => Not a typical rating change but much more a rating adjustment for Palestine because I badly underestimated them previously

    By my estimation quality matters to about 70% whereas I give teamwork about 30% of importance
     
  6. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    In that case you should revisit either your grade for the quality on Iran's team compared to Australia or your overall grade for Iran compared to them. You have given Iran a 4.0 for both quality and teamwork whereas you have given Australia 3.5 for quality and 4.5 for team work. Yet, your overall grade for Australia is higher.
     
  7. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    If I wanted to give the top AFC teams grades on a 100 point scale, I would grade them as follows:

    1- Japan: 90.
    2- S. Korea: 85.
    3- Iran: 84.
    4- Australia: 83.
    5- Uzbekistan: 79.
    6- Saudi Arabia: 78.
    7- UAE: 78.
    8- Iraq: 77.
    9- Qatar: 75.
    ...
     
  8. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #133 Kamtedrejt, Dec 11, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2023
    There are some minor inconsistencies between my overall ratings and the ratings for quality and teamwork. One example could be like Palestine have 3* in quality and teamwork yet ranks behind the likes of Bahrain, Oman, Jordan and Tajikistan who have all a mix of 3*/2.5*

    The reason for that is that my ranking has been in place since August/September and my ranking evaluates results AND performances

    The ratings for quality and teamwork are exclusively based off eye test. Particularly based off the eye test of the start of WCQ but also for prior games in the last 1.5 year or so

    A team like Palestine realistically don't have the results to back up a 14th place in the AFC.
    But I learned that they're a different beast in competitive games than in friendlies. So, I took for my quality and teamwork evaluation mainly their two games they played in WCQ in November. And they showed themselves a very decent side in these games.

    Back to your point about Australia and Iran

    Australia registered better results than Iran at the World Cup and they've been continuing to play well post World Cup as well. I rate Australia right now overall as the better side due to their defensive solidity and their superior teamwork and last but not least due to the results they've been getting.

    My ranking basically suggests that Australia have been punching above their weight. The way they play, the results they've been getting are in a way surprising given the lack of quality their squad presents. It's maybe not as dire as maybe 1-2 years ago but still I don't rate Australia a top 3 squad in the AFC based on mere individual quality.
     
  9. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #134 Kamtedrejt, Dec 11, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2023
    Very similar to mine actually

    You have Iran above Australia
    and you have Uzbekistan above Saudi Arabia and the UAE

    If you look at my quality and teamwork ratings there is a similar tendency to be seen

    I have Iran 4.0*/4.0* wheras I have Australia 3.5*/4.5*

    Iran should be ranked higher based on the tiebreaker of more individual quality. However results show Australia the better national team as of now

    I have Uzbekistan 3.0*/3.5* whereas Saudi Arabia is 3.5*/3.0*

    The quality tiebreaker is in favour of Saudi Arabia

    But I have UAE with 3.0*/3.0* very marginally ranked ahead of Uzbekistan desite being inferior to the latter in teamwork. For a simple reason actually.
    UAE are a more proven side. They made the playoffs of last WCQ whereas Uzbekistan didn't even make the final round of WCQ. If two teams have the identical rating I tend to rank that team higher who performed better at the World Cup or had a better performance in WCQ.
     
  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    My view is that a side's performance, much like an individual player's performance, can vary greatly from one game to the next much less one tournament to another. In that sense my own grades are more descriptive than predictive, as the latter is pretty much impossible (or we would all be pretty rich).

    With that caveat in mind:

    • As I have mentioned this before: Palestine is playing at a AFC top 15 or even higher level football.
    • Australia are better than the sum of their parts but even with a better World Cup than Iran, still rank behind Iran on overall results (FIFA/ELO).
     
  11. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Sorry if I wasn't clear enough

    My overall ratings and my quality and teamwork ratings must be seen as two different equations.

    My overall ratings don't hinge on my quality and teamwork ratings. The overall ratings have been in place since September while this 'quality' and 'teamwork' feature of my ranking has been NEW.
     
  12. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Lebanon's home game against Australia on March 26 will now be played in Canberra. I have tickets for Australia's home game in Sydney on March 21, now I have to decide if I also travel to Canberra for the 2nd game. The venue in Sydney is about 90 minutes from home (combination drive and train), the venue in Canberra is about 3 hours away from home (a drive).
     
    Kamtedrejt repped this.
  13. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Looking forward to this window as its the first in my memory since we started with international windows that the two games have been held close enough to home for me to attend both. Anyway Australian Squad announced. It gets the normal social media detractors who seem to think we have better players without naming them and/or don't like the coach. Its a similar squad to the Asian Cup with most of the changes being due to injuries, either ones that ruled out players at the Asian Cup or current ones preventing travel to Australia for this window
    Subway Socceroos squad for Lebanon World Cup Qualifiers revealed | Socceroos
     
  14. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    Impressive result by Thailand. Drawing away against South Korea is impressive. Meanwhile South Korea continues with shaky results and performances.

    Thailand really messed up by loosing at home against China. Unless they win at home against South Korea, they have to win away against China to qualify for the next round. One bad result Can really mess things up for certain teams at this stage
     
  15. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Just got home from the Australia Lebanon game. Happy with the 2-0 win. I think Lebanon will improve in the second game. They are a solid enough team but didn't really have much faith in their attacking abilities, making some good gains down the right flank but rarely having players in the middle for the first hour. It wasn't until they went 2-0 down they started to throw a few more players forward and the last 30 minutes was entertaining end to end stuff. I'm still not quite sure if our first goal was a brilliant chip or a misdirected cross. I guess I will have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
     
  16. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    Very disaapointing result by Syria, Drawing against Myanmar. I Think Dahoud from Brighton has chosen to play for Syria, but dont know from when.
    Seems like Hector Cuper has focused so much om making Them strong defensively, that they havnt found the Keys to open up a low block
     
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    AFC WQF -
    1. Australia v Lebanon 2:0
    2. Pakistan v Jordan 0:3
    3. S. Korea v Thailand 1:1
    4. Japan v N Korea 1:0
    5. Myanmar v Syria 1:1
    6. Singapore v China 2:2
    7. Hong Kong v Uzbekistan 0:2
    8. Iran v Turkmenistan 5:0
    The following matches to be still decided today:
    1. Oman v Malaysia
    2. UAE v Yemen
    3. Palestine v Bangladesh
    4. Qatar v Kuwait
    5. Nepal v Bahrain
    6. Afghanistan v India
    7. Iraq v Philippines
    8. Saudi Arabia v Tajikistan
     
  18. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    AFC WQF -
    1. Australia v Lebanon 2:0
    2. Pakistan v Jordan 0:3
    3. S. Korea v Thailand 1:1 o_O
    4. Japan v N Korea 1:0
    5. Myanmar v Syria 1:1 o_O
    6. Singapore v China 2:2 o_O
    7. Hong Kong v Uzbekistan 0:2
    8. Iran v Turkmenistan 5:0 :)
    9. Oman v Malaysia 2:0
    10. UAE v Yemen 2:1
    11. Palestine v Bangladesh 5:0
    12. Qatar v Kuwait 3:0
    13. Nepal v Bahrain 0:4
    14. Afghanistan v India 0:0
    15. Iraq v Philippines 1:0
    16. Saudi Arabia v Tajikistan 1:0 :([the Tajiks were able to put a lot of pressure against Saudi Arabia in a very tight match where the visitors ended up with as much possession and more shots than their Saudi hosts]
     
  19. jagum

    jagum Member

    CF Montreal
    Venezuela
    Jun 20, 2007
    Panama City, Panama
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Venezuela
    I knew some conflict would happen when I saw Japan and North Korea in the same group.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2024/03/22/soccer/north-korea-japan-match-moved/
     
  20. dinamo_zagreb

    dinamo_zagreb Member+

    Jun 27, 2010
    San Jose, CA / Zagreb, Croatia
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    I feel sorry for Korean athletes. And people in general.
     
  21. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Here early for Lebanon’s home game.
     
  22. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Surface looks a lot better than Australia provided in Sydney.
     
  23. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
  24. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Predictions

    Lebanon 0-1 Australia
    Bangladesh 1-2 Palestine
    Philippines 0-2 Iraq
    China 3-1 Singapore
    Vietnam 2-1 Indonesia
    Thailand 1-1 South Korea
    India 0-1 Afghanistan (B)
    Kyrgyzstan 2-1 Chinese Taipei
    Malaysia 1-1 Oman
    Uzbekistan 4-0 Hong Kong
    Tajikistan 0-1 Saudi Arabia
    Turkmenistan 0-3 Iran
    Bahrain 3-0 Nepal
    Jordan 6-0 Pakistan
    Kuwait 0-2 Qatar
    Syria 1-0 Myanmar
    Yemen 0-2 UAE
     
  25. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Houston Dynamo, Penang FC, Al Duhail
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

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