2026 World Cup and 2027 Asian Cup Qualification process

Discussion in 'AFC: Tournaments' started by almango, Aug 2, 2022.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Btw, unless Japan somehow implodes between now and the Asian Cup, we don't have a realistic chance against them. Even S. Korea right now looks slightly better than Iran, although with a bit of luck we can still beat the Koreans.
     
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  2. Nurafshon

    Nurafshon Member+

    Jun 28, 2007
    Germany
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Uzbekistan
    Iran dominated in the first half, so i was thinking that the time to play with them even equally still didn't come. But what a great second half from our boys. This draw with so strong team is an indication that we are in the right direction to achieve the main goal, that is to qualify for the WC.
     
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  3. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    I hope you guys finally qualify for the World cup. Nothing is certain and Uzbekistan has choked a couple of times. But this times you have a Great oppertunity.
     
  4. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    Huge win for Kyrgyzstan today against Oman. This group is going to be very close between Oman Kyrgyzstan and Malaysia
     
  5. svelten

    svelten Member

    N/A
    Jun 22, 2009
    Club:
    Vancouver Whitecaps
    I'd be absolutely astonished if they don't qualify this time around with 8 teams + a PO spot. AFC is very top heavy like CONCACAF. A team like Japan is playing like they're New Zealand in OFC treating every other team here like it's a walkover of late, even Mexico and USA can't claim that kind of competitive imbalance in CONCACAF in recent years/fixtures.

    Pretty likely the same six that went to 2022 will go to 2026 (with the usual top four of Japan/Iran/SK/Australia absolutely guaranteed), then Uzbekistan would just have to be the best two out of the likes of UAE, Iraq, Oman, China.

    I wouldn't count on the PO spot converting to AFC unfortunately though, I'm sure CONMEBOL will take one so the 9th place AFC team has to fight for only one spot against a likely decent side in CAF, possibly something like a South Africa or Mali, and at least one side that would have taken a fairly recent WC dance from CONCACAF like Honduras or Trinidad & Tobago. Stiff competition that Uzbekistan would not want any part of, and I think Iraq or China would get outmatched for... but we'll see.
     
  6. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Stolen from Wikipedia
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  7. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    NB: I've only watched the two Australian games so this analysis is purely result based, not performance based.

    Group A - Qatar start with 2 solid wins. They are favourites to go through. India got a very good result away to Kuwait before losing to Qatar at home. Kuwait dropped their home opener to India which could prove crucial. Afghanistan suffered two largish losses and don't look like repeating some of the good results their cricket team achieved in the recent CWC.

    Group B - Japan continuing to dominate opponents. Haven't seen any of their recent games but the scores they continue to post shows they are in very good form. Syria got a home win against Nth Korea and second spot seems to be a contest between these two. Myanmar a bit off the pace so far.

    Group C - Sth Korea takes the lead with 2 solid wins. China's away win against Thailand probably gives them the edge in the race for second at this stage.

    Group D - Malaysia starts with 2 wins. Kyrgyzstan Takes the points at home over Oman leaving both on 3 points. An open group which i won't try and predict at this time. It may come down to who drops points to Chinese Taipei to see who misses out.

    Group E - The first group we come to where all teams have points but I suspect a division is already opening up with Iran and Uzbekistan favoured to go through.

    Group F - Another group with all teams registering at least a point. Iraq's good start sees them in a good position to take a qualifying spot. Vietnam may have the edge over the others with an away win on the board, but its early days yet.

    Group G - Saudi Arabia start with 2 wins and should take one of the top 2 spots. Jordan and Tajikistan look like they will have a close tussle for the other position.

    Group H - UAE gets 6 points to start the campaign. Bahrain picks up an away win against Yemen and then loses at home to UAE.

    Group I - Australia starts with 2 wins, one a convincing performance against Bangladesh who tried hard but were a bit overwhelmed physically, the other a more scrappy performance against a well organised Palestine who made things difficult for Australia but seem to just lack a goal scoring threat. Lebanon dropping points to Bangladesh may be crucial at the completion of the group.
     
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  8. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    Yes they should qualify but nothing is certain. It also depends on the group they get in. I dont know which seed Uzbekistan Will be at, when the draw is taking place. But it they arent in the top 6 of asia, then they Will be ik a group with 2 of the top 5 teams (Japan, Korea, Iran, Australia and saudi Arabia). That Would make it difficult for Them.
    Lets say they get the 3rd or 4th place. They Will then go to the 4th round where to groups of 3 teams play one game against eachother. The winner of the groups qualifies. It is far from certain that Uzbekistan Will win that group. So many things Can happen when it is just one game against two other teams. Furthermore Uzbekistan isnt guaranteed a win against teams like Iraq, Qatar and so on.

    So even though many people including myself Think they will qualify for the World cup, it is far from certain
     
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  9. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Even though the same teams seem to qualify it doesn't mean things are easy for them. We've had 4 qualification campaigns in Asia before this one and have qualified comfortably for 2010, had to beat an Iraqi youth team in the last game which we barely did in 2014, Syria went within a goalpost width in extra time of knocking us out at the AFC playoff stage for 2018 and then we came from behind to win a penalty shootout to qualify for 2022.

    The Asian system is a long one combining Asian Cup and World Cup but it is reasonably good at ensuring the best teams go through with two teams from each group progressing and the extra 4th and 5th stage ensuring the best of the rest get through as well.
     
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  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    #110 Iranian Monitor, Nov 22, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2023
    Most of the teams Iran is facing or about to face in the Asian Cup have really improved. Along with Japan that has been consistently thrashing its opponents in a manner and with a consistency that has alluded even the best teams in the world since the World Cup, and a resurgent S. Korea boasting several notable players with top clubs in Europe, Iran will have a tough time matching the expectations of its fans. This despite the fact that Iran has been playing some of the best football it has ever played. Even against Uzbekistan, in the first half, Iran was quite immaculate.

    But the truth is that Uzbekistan is right now pretty good by Asian standards -- and even competitive internationally. That Palestine (who Iran will face in the Asian Cup) is no walk-over; they will be tough to beat by any score. That the UAE (who beat Bahrain 2:0 yesterday and who are in Iran's Asian Cup group) are going to be a near peer opponent. They have never beaten us, with UAE having a dismal competitive record against Iran, but S. Korea hadn't beaten Iran in a while before they did in the last qualifiers under Bento. Now he is with the UAE and will bring the same can-do attitude when the UAE face Iran.

    Of course, Iran should and will probably win its Asian Cup group. (If we can't do it with an experienced coach like Ghalenoi, chances are we wouldn't under anyone else either). But by the time we face S. Korea in a probable quarterfinal match-up, many of our fans (buoyed by agents and foreign coach lobbyists, anti-regime activists masquerading as well-meaning fans, domestic rivals, etc), using the fact that we might have struggled to get there, will have likely succeeded in turning the team and fans against itself. Iran will need to be at its very best to have a chance to beat this very resurgent and aggressive S. Korea. (The same way we needed to be at our very best to have advanced from our group at the World Cup, yet weren't at all close to our best thanks to the usual suspects). But even we get past S. Korea, we won't have a chance against Japan unless someone else has knocked them out already.

    In the recent past, Japan and Iran were of roughly equal strength. Japan much more articulate and better than Iran if it had managed to take a lead, but often too inefficient and wasteful even against much weaker teams to be counted to take that lead. Now days, Japan are as articulate as ever but are also scoring freely. This bodes terribly for how they would match up against us in particular. This despite the fact that Ghalenoi's teams are generally very good taking leads or mounting comebacks compared to our previous coaches, who sucked in that regard -- even if they did better sitting on a lead than Ghalenoi's teams. (Iran's 2:0 HT leads under Ghalenoi against Jordan, which we then struggled against and were fortunate to beat 3:1, and our last match against Uzbekistan where Iran had a 2:0 lead at HT, have brought back to me the wisdom in the counter-intuitive adage that a 2:0 lead can be the most dangerous lead in football).
     
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  11. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    I really dont have High hopes for the asian cup either. But we should atleast get to the quarter finals and go toe to toe with South Korea (is everything goes as expected). Anything less than that is very disappointing

    The iranian fan base is maybe the most toxic in the World. Im honestly not that much impressed by the coach Ghalenoei, specially because we struggle to hold on to a lead, as you mentioned. But he is the coach now, so I Will support him 100 percent before the tournament. No need to create more chaos around the team
     
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  12. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    The important thing is that we both realize this is not the time for another (artificially induced) coaching controversy. But others unfortunately will not be so restrained.

    As for Ghalenoi, both Iran's results and performances have IMO been encouraging. Our struggles with 2:0 halftime leads against two teams (Uzbekistan, Jordan) we were playing at their home as much showing the dangers of complacency against an opponent that feels under pressure to comeback and which has the tools to use that dynamic (and extra motivation/effort) to successfully press us vigorously, as anything strictly about tactics and coaching.

    For those who don't follow Iranian football closely, Iran has played 11 matches under Ghalenoi winning 9 and drawing 2 without a loss. We have defeated Angola, Qatar (coached by former Iran manager Carlos Queiroz), and Hong Kong each 4:0. Before our 2:2 draw in Tashkent we had met and defeated Uzbekistan in Tashkent in the CAFA final. While we struggled in the 2nd half against Jordan, we still beat them 3:1 in a friendly tournament they were hosting. Even our worst performance early in Ghalenoi's tenure this year still saw Iran deservedly but narrowly beat Kenya 2:1. I also think everyone agrees that Iran deserved at least 2-3 more goals in our win over Bulgaria and our draw with Russia. And while Iran beating a "minnow" like Kyrgyzstan 5:1 had raised alarm bells because we had allowed them to score, since then the same Kyrgyz team has gone on to beat Kuwait 3:1 and Oman 1:0 showing it wasn't the complete rubbish we had assumed.
     
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  13. Iran fan

    Iran fan Member

    Barcelona
    Iran
    Mar 30, 2022
    Yes I get it, the results have Been good. But the defence is worrying me alot. For so many years we were used to have a Great and compact defence. Whenever we scored, I knew the opponent Wouldnt come back. This has changed now, although it seems like we are better offensively now. But does that work when me meet South Korea, Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia? Well lets see at the Asian Cup. Now we must just support the team. After the tournament we Can discuss the future and which coach to go with
     
  14. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #114 Kamtedrejt, Nov 27, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2023
    My two cents on the Asian Cup. It's a 3-horse race at this point.

    Japan are at the moment Asia's best team by some considerable margin. However they're not unbeatable. I think Australia and South Korea can legitimately beat them. Another team I would give maybe a chance to upset Japan is the UAE.

    Favourites to win the Asian Cup

    Japan, South Korea and Australia

    Dark horses who could reach a semi-final

    Uzbekistan, UAE, Iraq and Qatar

    Potential fairy tale run to a quarterfinal

    Tajikistan

    Teams who stand little chance of making the knockout stage

    Syria
    India
    Hong Kong
    Malaysia

    I'm set that the Asian Cup will be won by either Japan, South Korea or Australia.

    I don't consider anyone else for Asian Cup glory based on what I've seen.
     
  15. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Houston Dynamo, Penang FC, Al Duhail
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Saudi Arabia? Iran? I'd say any of the big 5 for the first category, especially considering where the tournament is being held...
     
  16. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    #116 almango, Nov 27, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2023
    To be honest I think our best chance is if someone else knocks out Japan for us. Also I think Iran and Saudi Arabia have as much chance as we do.

    I just checked this thread title and the last 3 posts (this one included) could probably be moved to the Asian Cup 2023(4) thread
     
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    1. I think Japan are clear favorites to lift the Asian Cup trophy. I give them (by my otherwise conservative standards) an astonishing 50%+ chance to win the trophy. The teams with the best odds to upset Japan on their way to the trophy are Saudi Arabia, S. Korea, the UAE and Australia -- in that order. Iran will have a very slight chance, less than the sides I listed. Don't think anyone outside of these teams have any chance.
    2. South Korea's odds are the next best IMO. I give them around slightly under 20% odds. The main reason they don't get better odds from me is that, besides Japan, each of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Australia, even UAE or Uzbekistan, have a decent enough chance against them.
    3. Iran, Australia and Saudi Arabia have roughly equal chances (<%10 each). If Iran is going to win the trophy, its best bet would be someone else having already knocked off Japan. My ideal scenario would be to see an Iran v Australia final.
    In terms of actually winning the Asian Cup trophy, I don't give anyone outside the top 5 any realistic chance. But teams that are likely to still impress and see their profile rise are the UAE and Uzbekistan.
     
  18. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    It still amazes me that in 4 1/2 WCQ campaigns and 4 Asian Cups and 5 qualifying campaigns since we joined AFC we are yet to play each other.
     
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  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I agree. Which would make an Iran v Australia final all the more thrilling.
     
  20. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Houston Dynamo, Penang FC, Al Duhail
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just for the record, my prediction is Japan v Iran final. You also have to look at how the brackets lineup too. My original prediction was Japan v Saudi Arabia, but that's more of a potential semifinal.

    Also, there's an Asian Cup thread which no one seems to be posting on, I thought I'd just like to show everyone ;) - 2023(24) Asian Cup | BigSoccer Forum
     
  21. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I think you are being unfair to both Japan and the AFC. Until these WCQs, the teams Japan had been thrashing weren't even from the AFC. Their winning/thrashing streak started with a 6:0 win over Concacaf's El Salvador. Before thrashing another Concacaf side, Canada, 4:1, they had already thrashed Peru and Germany 4:1 as well! Their results have been so impressive that otherwise notable wins over Turkiye (4:2) (after a 3:0 lead) and Tunisia (2:0) are the closest anyone has ended up against them on the scoreboard!
     
  22. glennaldo_sf

    glennaldo_sf Member+

    Houston Dynamo, Penang FC, Al Duhail
    United States
    Nov 25, 2004
    Doha, Qatar
    Club:
    FL Fart Vang Hedmark
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Japan also beat the USA 2-0 in the leadup to the World Cup last September. You should have seen the USA boards explode here, but people then kind of realized a few months later that maybe that match wasn't as easy as we'd thought. Mind you, Japan did lose to Costa Rica... and not in Costa Rica... :D
     
  23. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Yes, but somehow a Japanese side that was always both very good and which also had shown a tendency to suffer unexpected upset losses and other disappointing results, has become a side that has been freely scoring goals consistently over the past 10 matches it has played. I have never seen them as consistent and persuasive as they have shown this year. Recall: unlike now, heading to the World Cup in 2022, Japan was only the 2nd highest ranked team in the AFC. There was a reason for that: they had a greater propensity to drop the ball and draw or even lose games to much lower ranked teams. I haven't seen indications of that from them lately.
     
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  24. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #124 Kamtedrejt, Nov 27, 2023
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2023
    It's not that important IMO where the tournament takes place. I see the aforementioned 3 teams a clear step ahaead of Iran and Saudi Arabia at the moment.

    Saudi Arabia were up until recently a dumpster fire and lost at one point 5 of their 6 post World Cup friendlies. I think their main players are in a way still hangover from that win against Argentina at the last World Cup. They haven't reset yet mentally. In general I find them overrated. I can't see Saudi Arabia playing a major role for Asian Cup glory.

    Iran are as a squad past their prime. Their prime was at the 2018 World Cup and at the 2019 Asian Cup. It's never a good sign if the performance levels of a team drop so much after one of their key players had to be subbed out injured against Uzbekistan. In fact I'd say Uzbekistan had Iran on the ropes in the second half. Iran lack the leggs and pace to go toe-to-toe with Japan and South Korea
     
  25. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Australia have carried over the momentum from the World Cup and they played tough opposition post World Cup. So, they're prepaed. Australia can set up a stingy defence and hit Japan in moments. Just the way they play under Arnold since the WCQ playoffs. I'm well aware that Japan have the upper hand over Australia in the H2H but because of their way of playing Australia would stand in my book a somewhat decent chance to beat Japan.
     

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