2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

And really, on balance, Haiti had the better of play and Scotland scored on a wicked deflection.

 

H2H, GD, goals scored, and then I am not sure. I think disciplinary record and then FIFA rank?

 

The big thing for us is taking care of business against Australia. Won't be easy, but it's a team we should beat.

Win that game, and worst case Turkey beats Paraguay and we head into matchday 3 with advancement already clinched and only needing a draw to win the group. And frankly in that scenario Turkey might be smart to park the bus and play for a draw that would net them 4 points and all but guarantee advancement, if they try to chase a win they risk getting ripped apart like Paraguay did.

(And yes, we're unironically discussing a scenario where a good UEFA team decides to bunker against us in the World Cup. How far we've come)

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/moroccos-dual-national-scouting-policy-024512878.html?guccounter=1

 

Curaçao could very well top that today; only one player on their entire roster was born in Curaçao:

Manchester United academy graduate Tahith Chong has scored three goals and assisted one in five caps so far ahead of the final warm-up friendly against Aruba. He is the only member of the 26-man squad to have been born in Curacao.​

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/clyp967jj45o

 

The H2H removes some of the MD3 uncertainty, because the winner of USA-Australia, if there is one, wins the group unless there's the rare 6/6/6/0 point distribution. It's rare, but within conceivable possibility.

USA def AUS
TUR def PAR
AUS def PAR
TUR def USA

That creates the 3-way tie. Of course the third team in that tiebreaker will still advance.

 

Second half readup sounds like the Australian gameplan worked perfectly. Scotland........they are not. Surprised to read about the speed goal. We should be careful of that obviously as that is our likely weak spot.

They have great shape, great organization, built for the counter. What you would have hoped for with a pre 2019 USMNT.

The way to victory for us is quick ball movement on the ground. Maybe they have some speed that I didnt see yesterday, but they dont have our speed..... we arent gonna beat them in the air, but I feel they can be very mortal on the ground against a player like Reyna.

 

Some updated stuff after match day 1 for our group.

USA Place:
1st - 63%
2nd - 24%
3rd - 11%
4th - 2%

In 3rd we advance almost 100% of the time, so our odds to advance are:
97.9%

From there:
R16 = 71.3%
R8 = 38.2%
R4 = 14.1%
R2 = 5.9%
WIN = 2.1%

Conditional advancement probabilities based on Australia match result:
Win = 100.0%
Draw = 99.9%
Loss = 88.8%

Most likely R32 opponents...
Bosnia = 21%
Canada = 9%
Egypt = 9%
Qatar = 7%
Iran = 7%
Belgium = 5%
Switzerland = 5%
Some One Else = 34%

 

Turkey too. Turkey is not this ---, they aren't even ---, but I did mention more than once that they were if not lucky, just outright uninspiring playing with it all on the line against Kosovo in their playoff 3 months ago. They can be very good and very meh, just like us. Consistency isn't our strong suit either. W/regards to them, consider:

Euro '24
3-1 over Georgia
0-3 loss to Portugal
2-1 win over Czech
2-1 win over Austria
1-2 loss to Netherlands

NL '24-'25
Road and Home scoreless draws with Wales
4-2 and 3-1 wins over Iceland
1-3 loss and 1-0 win over Montenegro
2nd place finish behind Wales

UEFA WC Qualifying Group E
3-2 win over Georgia
0-6 loss to Spain
6-1 win over Bulgaria
4-1 win over Georgia
2-0 win over Bulgaria
2-2 draw at Spain

UEFA Playoff:
1-0 playoff win at Kosovo (doubled up Kosovo in xG but Kosovo did have 0.83 in xG)

Scroll through and there is a lot of ugly, especially against Portugal and Spain, but there are some impressive results too, they seem like a team that can play a lot of ways.

Each game is its own story, I wouldn't take too much away from this re Turkey or Australia, Turkey knows it must get something out of 1 and possibly 2 games, and w/the tiebreaker H2H, unless Paraguay wins or draws, we'll need a result against them.

 

Dont be surprised if Paraguay beats Turkey in the other game. Its not like theyre a bad team. Theyll be playing for dear life, and Turkey has already played overconfident once. But Turkey's plan just went out the window..........do they have the character to get through it? It is Turkey that could be down and out by the time they play us.

 

All I know is window 2 will be its own thing, and we are inconsistent in windows about 90-92.5% of the time in windows. About once in every 9-10 windows we produce strong performances in all games, so I'm really just praying the distance of time between matches changes the issues w/consistency.

 

Paraguay came out of the box. They didn't bunker. They played a midblock for the most part, but didn't apply pressure. We picked them apart.

Australia doesn't straight bunker but they absolutely get back better on defense and are more cautious coming out. It's going to be harder to pull them forward.

 

If at least four groups have at least one draw, it guarantees that every team with at least 6 points will advance. Groups B and C have at least one draw. Groups E through L Matchday 1 and Group A Matchday 2 play before us. If at least two of those nine groups have at least one draw by then, we will clinch advancing if we beat Australia.

In ELO, we gained 54 points, which was our most points gained since we beat Spain in the 2009 Confederations Cup. Australia gained 62 points, which was their most points gained ever, and it was their 638th game. ELO has all four teams close together.

 

What self respecting Scotsman drinks vodka? I wonder if there's any Scotch distiller that does that weaselly crystal like they do for tequila to rob flavor and make it clear for wine snobs? You could smuggle that in as water.

 

Hopefully some if it also is the constant wholesale lineup changes we were doing, which shouldn't be as crazy now.

 

Germany is fielding the exact same starting lineup they started against us a week ago, except Manuel Neuer is now back in net.

 

Just bet over 3.5. C'mon, boys.

 

I just want to see a Curacao goal. Don't care if it's 6-0 by that point.

 

Could've been gin. Lot of Scotch distilleries now also make gin.

 

Sounds like you speak from experience

 

I was thinking last night if USMNT put in that type of performance against Haiti and came away with a 1-0 win at Gillette Stadium like Scotland did, then I would be deeply concerned about our form going forward in the Gold Cup.

 

That didn't take long. 1-0 Germany

 

oof

 

Germany does not mess around with minnows

 

It’s more fun if CUW borrows some of Netherlands team B players.