2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

We should probably stop even talking about all these perceived slights being spread like wildfire in the media. None of us know the whole story or even close to it. And there is an agenda behind those stories to begin with.

 

Hey guys. Winning the World Cup is going to be hard.

Most Likely World Cup Championship Path for USA -

If we finish 1st in the group, we have a 2.3% chance to take the trophy.
- Most likely path: Bosnia--->Belgium--->Spain--->France--->Argentina

If we finish 2nd in the group, we have a 1.0% chance to take the trophy.
- Most likely path: Egypt--->Argentina--->Portugal--->England--->Spain

If we finish 3rd in the group (and advance), we have a 0.5% chance to take the trophy.
- Most likely path: Germany--->France--->Netherlands--->Spain--->Argentina

That 0.5% seems kinda high actually, yeesh.

Source:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IFbPT/6/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Though might be subscriber only content

 

Not that we’d win but it’s also true if we advance like any knockout tournament things aren’t likely to exactly chalk and upsets will happen.

I don’t consider this a huge upset but I wouldn’t be surprised if Germany upset France in the round of 16 for instance. Something about Dembele telling Mbappe he needs to work harder on defense for France compared to Madrid just makes me feel like France is going to disappoint despite having the most talented roster in the tournament.

And I’m also a bit down on Spain compared to others just because unclear how healthy Yamal is, Rodri hasn’t been as good post injury, and they have no clear 9.

But maybe I’ll look like a complete idiot a month from now.

 

I agree. These most likely scenarios aren't all that likely.

 

Yeah, the agenda is to not have our country treat brown people like shit for once.

 

Look im not defending anything about this countries entry process, but facts do matter.

The Senegal story is kinda bullshit, they bused from the hotel right onto to the tarmac so that's why they went through security right there instead of the normal way. They weren't even entering The US, they were flying from North Carolina to Texas.


There's very real things to complain about here, but peoaple are very clearly are trying to find issues where there isn't one

 

Ok seems like the Senegal thing makes sense if it was just typical flight security, just performed on a tarmac. What about the Uzbekistan case? Seems like that was venue security, but I haven't seen any reports of Netherlands being inspected the same way or some explanation for why Uzbekistan was checked with sniffer dogs.

 

I get it and agree with the sentiment to not jump to conclusions. Although the American government has not earned any benefit of the doubt here, and the history of mistreatment, racism, and double standards is lengthy and well-documented.

 

Looks like Iran was supposed to have a friendly against Grenada but it was canceled when the latter was unable to assemble a squad.

 

There will be a couple wonky teams in the R16 and the top teams who are fortunate enough to play them have materially better title odds than the others. It’s impossible to predict, but not hard at all for a sneak through in third team to just win a one off game in pens in R32 against a big fave

 

This may be more about fish and less about football.

From Gemini: " Norway is the dominant global powerhouse in aquaculture....its firms now own a massive portion of Scotland's fish farms. This has led to local friction and even legal battles where retailers have argued that generic farmed Scottish salmon is effectively the same product as cheaper Norwegian imports."



(I'm joking.)

 

Whelp if you picked Miami to have the hottest games you're a winner.

https://x.com/NWSCPC

 

I'm really enjoying all of the English travelers somehow realizing that:

A) The weather is different in the US than England.
B) Fans experience games differently in the US than England.

Like on social media they seem to all be astonished that fans were sitting at tables in Orlando at the game eating dinner. Right along the sideline. As if it was shocking and appalling.
Instagram

Yes, we're not English. We consume sports differently.

There are German fans on social media that seem to be having a lot of fun with it, travelling across the US and experiencing new things. Chris Richards was commenting on on eof those feeds telling the travelers where to go for food in Alabama!

 

Bombito is in for Canada

Moïse Bombito is IN ✅

Sources tell Kristian Jack that the OGC Nice defender has reportedly made the CanMNT 🇨🇦 World Cup roster, and is set to be on the squad list when it officially has to be submitted to FIFA before 3PM ET today 😎#VWFC standout Ralph Priso misses out as a… pic.twitter.com/Pa2Va34kNq

— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 11, 2026

 

Somali referee Omar Artan, who was denied entry into the USA ahead of the World Cup, has now been appointed by UEFA to officiate PSG vs. Aston Villa in the Super Cup final. pic.twitter.com/7bbnAALomF

— ESPN Africa (@ESPNAfrica) June 11, 2026

 

Wow. That's a shocking turn of events. Wasn't he ruled out just a few days ago?

 

Canada's roster seems a little bit of fluctuating mess.

We had Richards training on the side, and seemingly now in full training. Adams in load management, but healthy.

Canada has had like 5-6 including some of their best recovering from hamstrings and other issues. Marsch is just going to make some educated gambles. And, of course, they lost Flores late.

If this was a 24 man roster instead of 26, Marsch would likely have had some really difficult cuts.
Alphonso Davies has not played that much this season, and is recovering from injury. Even if he's able to play, they don't really know what version of Davies they're going to get.

Canada's most critical game is likely their first against Bosnia. That Bosnia team isn't a cupcake. They're definitely going to miss really key players for that one.

Somebody asked me the other day which #1 seed is the most likely to not advance at all.
Based on the format, you wouldn't pick any to completely miss out.
I worry for Canada, though. That was my answer. I wouldn't bet on it, but i worry about it.

 

Canada just has a very thin CB pool.

Before Bombitos random emergence to star dom from D3 college soccer they were very vulnerable.

They go from Ligue 1 starter on a better than average team to 20 y/o with 30 professional appearances for the worst team in the JPL..

So, yea, makes sense they are willing to destroy this guys leg to try and get him to play.

 

Did Jesse Marsch just cut a dude he publicly said had a job just a few days ago? I wonder if Ralph Priso will be on TV for the next decade stewing about it.

 

Given the way guys talk about being left off a roster I’m sure.

 

Ranking the top 50 players in the tournament

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7338660/2026/06/11/world-cup-top-50-players-rankings-messi-ronaldo/

https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48991846/world-cup-rank-50-best-players-2026-tournament

 

What's the story behind that? I know nothing of Ralph Priso.