2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

I predicted those semi final matchups

CIV v Senegal
Morocco v Nigeria

And I predicted Senegal to beat Morocco in the final.

I'm wondering if Nigeria may have something to say about that. They've been the best team in the tournament so far.

Although Morocco, Senegal, and CIV have had their moments.

This is the first AFCON in a long time where the quarterfinals are packed with really strong teams.

Usually many of the better teams get eliminated earlier, or are in poor form.

I dont see how this won't finish the best edition of AFCON ever.

 

Just wish it was hosted elsewhere, that's my only quibble, but yeah, we can clearly see some darn good QF match ups, and potential powerhouse semifinals.

I have more or less power ranked CAF:
1.Senegal
2.Morocco
3. Nigeria
4. Ivory Coast
5. Algeria
6. Egypt
7. DR Congo
8. Cameroon
9. South Africa
10. Tunisia or maybe Cape Verde


Nigeria's performance of late should probably plop them around 8 or 9, based on the prior five years of results, but it's really difficult to look at their '19 and '23 AFCON's, and their '22 WCQ losing on away goals and not think that its mostly a mix of being unlucky and having a terrible political/fed situation. I'm not sure how to rank DR Congo and Cameroon because I tend they're more capable than Algeria and Egypt of getting results against quality teams, but Egypt and Algeria, and hell Tunisia, seem to navigate CAF much, much better in terms of WCQ, and probably to some extent the AFCON (well Egypt not necessairly the other two there).

I've just always felt that the North African sides are CAF strong but WC weak, until Algeria and Morocco started getting a ton of dual nats from France/Spain/ Portugal etc, now Morocco is legit, for sure, but Tunisia and Egypt look pretty weak in terms of WC competition, whereas the Sub-Saharan sides can really show out on the world stage, we've seen it from Cameroon, Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana, and Ivory Coast being unlucky, while those North African sides just always sucked until the last cycle, and 1 cycle doesn't compare to 1990-2014 for me (7 WC's of evidence versus 1)....but this could change, Algeria was great in '14 after sucking in '10, and look good again (and were incredibly unlucky, like South Africa, in WCQ last cycle (if South Africa were unlucky to get bounced on an utterly bogus penalty to Ghana, and Nigeria were unlucky to get bounced via away goals, what do you call Algeria losing on a goal that's nearly identical to Ireland's last gasp winner back in November? It was Algeria, not Cameroon, that was WC bound in injury time of the 2nd Extra Time period, when Cameroon managed to grab a loose ball off a long ball kick in the closing second(literally second), to score and knock Algeria out of the WC (it did give us Cameroon's thrilling win over Brazil though).

So I don't know, it will be interesting, I'm always a Sub-Saharan African fan, love seeing the men and women celebrating and dancing and cheering for 90+ minutes, so damn fun, and fun times. I find the North African sides pretty dull in comparison, although Algeria and Morocco are much more exciting of late.

 

Apart from the 1990 World Cup, Cameroon feels a bit like Tunisia in the World Cup.
I really hope Tunisia can surprise and advance this time.
I think it's a shame that Nigeria missed the World Cup, but Cape Verde instead of Cameroon is ok, always fun with a new team too.
I prefer Ghana over Cameroon too.

 

I ---- on them, but it's fair to argue, even after crashing out, that Tunisia's on an improving trajectory, they were legit good at WC '22, one of the classic brutal 4 point group stage exits, like Senegal in '18 if I remember right, and they were solid enough in '18 as well, so they may be on the upswing.

I don't know how to rate Ghana. They actually failed to make the final stage of CAF WC Qualifying in '22 if not for an obscene bit of hometown cooking that screwed South Africa (I've got no dog in the fight, I really love Ghana except when they play the US), they've been on a real slide since '14. Seem to have improved and grown in this cycle, and they can pull dual nats too.

Other piece of news, Leeds/Championship Striker Piroe has apparently just declared for Suriname, which makes them a potential WC Qualifier. All they have to do is beat a ---- Bolivia on neutral grounds and a much better Iraq on neutral grounds, that playoff now looks quite even. The other one, I don't see how DR Congo fails barring a red card, or Jamaica pulling its A game out of a hat, which it does once every 5-10 games or so.

 

I should also add, now that I think of it, is really any nation, beyond the big dogs, a perennial anything? Isn't Cameroon pretty close to de rigueur in that sense? Probably a little worse (since I don't think they made any other knockouts), but just spit balling, off the top of my head, I think other than Croatia, the only squads that have made deep runs (QF and SF's) repeatedly, are those historical big dogs with WC Trophies or Final appearances, the Big 6 from UEFA (Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, England, France), and the Big 3 from Conmebol (Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay). I should add if you go further back to 65-90 years ago, you get more, the Czech's, Hungary, Sweden (who have popped up periodically) etc, but over the past 35+ years, with the more modern game, we get Cinderella's but other than Croatia, pretty much all of them, are one offer's.

It's really hard to find anyone other than Croatia. You get these little runs: Bulgaria in '94, Croatia in '98 (which ended up becoming sticky), Turkey, Senegal, South Korea and USA in '02, Ghana in '10, Costa Rica in '14, Morocco in '22, otherwise in the deeper past, but when you dive under the hood, just about every single one of those nations, either was an R16 and out every other time, or not even that. So maybe Cameroon is kinda close to that standard, though not quite as good since they never even escaped the Group Stage after, Nigeria is closer to that standard with 3 knockout round runs over the past 30 years/8 World Cups.


Not sure, I think I'd be more likely to totally buy the argument if Tunisia was more relevant at the AFCON level but they haven't been much beyond solid. Cameroon has 3 golds (Championships) at the AFCON since 2000 (2000, 2002, 2017), along with a Silver in '08 and a Bronze in '21. They've also advanced to the knockouts in 10 of the 11 they qualified for (they did inexplicably fail to qualify entirely in '12 and '13). Tunisia just isn't at that level, though they've been good. They've got a Gold Finish when they hosted in '04, and a pair of 4th place semifinal runs in 2000 and 2019. I think the best way to describe them would be that Cameroon is just more capable of producing elite teams, but Tunisia is more consistent (Tunisia hasn't missed an AFCON since a terrible run in the eighties and early 90's where they only qualified once between 1980-1992, more than 30 straight years of qualification, Cameroon missed in '94, '12 and '13, and had a similar dry run as Tunisia, just in the 70's and early 80's. Cameroon's order of finish has been more volatile than Tunisia too.

Interesting debate. In the end, I just probably overrate Cameroon a bit because '90 was my first WC I watched from beginning to end, and I enjoy the way they play and their fans, whereas Tunisia has been a dull as dishwater/watching paint dry team for decades, a classic Defense First North African score on the counter team, largely toothless out of CAF until the last two World Cups where they suddenly produced some good performances after sucking for all of history save Argentina '78 where they were pretty good. The last two cups they've won two, tied 1 and lost 3, and actually scored some goals in '18 (probably because Panama was in their group), before falling back to stultifying production in '22 (1 goal scored, 1 goal conceded in 3 games where they won 1, tied 1 and lost 1).

 

Nice summary grandinquistor28!

Yep, of course Cameroon has done better than Tunisia in Afcon.
What I just meant was that they have qualified for the World Cup a few times and have always been a disappointment in the group stage.
1998 was an exception if I remember correctly, Cameroon had some bad luck with some decisions against Chile. I think a goal was disallowed that shouldn't have been.
However, as you write, Tunisia has played ok in both Russia and Qatar and had a little bad luck.
In Russia, England scored a goal in the last second, I don't think they would have progressed anyway with Belgium in the group too. Was unlucky with the draw that England - Belgium played the last match too.
In Qatar, they should have won against Denmark or Australia.

 

Quaterfinals have kicked off.....
Senegal playing as favorites against Mali, currently 0-0, 23 minutes in.
Morocco hosts Cameroon in a touch under 3 hours.

I kinda like Cameroon +1.5, and Morocco to advance, and Senegal to win (though I think playing a low scoring angle isn't bad, and parlaying Mali +.5, with say, the Rams or Eagles this weekend aint the worst way to hedge). I can equally imagine a 0-0 draw with Senegal advancing, or say, a 2-0 Senegal win. I don't see either game being high scoring, we'll see though, this tourney has a way of surprising you.

 

With about 35 minutes remaining in regulation Senegal has jumped to a 1-0 lead. Smart bit of interplay on the right side breaks open the Mali midfield and defense, it shouldn't matter as a cross centrally into the box goes right to the goalie, but he spills it, and a Senegal attacker calmly slots it in for the 1-0 lead in the 27th minute. Senegal has been dominant thus far with nearly 65% of possession and a similar nearly 70% of chances shots on goal and all the big chances.

I thought Mali would put up a better fight, I'm not surprised that Senegal has been the better side, or that it's a tight affair in terms of scoreline. 32 mins left in regulation. 1-0 for Senegal.

 

Mali put up a good fight, especially down a man for the 2nd half, but couldn't find an equalizer and fall 1-0. Apparently Mali had a reasonably strong call for a penalty early in the match that was ignored by the ref as well. General sense is Senegal was uninspiring and the game was kind of wrecked by a combo of the rain, some sketchy reffing, and a ton of fouling, and the aforementioned red card (double yellow) to Mali late in the first half.

Morocco hosting Cameroon has kicked off and 20 minutes in, it's a tight, 0-0, scoreless affair.

 

Brahim Diaz body's in a goal following a corner to give Morocco a 1-0 lead in the 26th minute.

 

Now in injury time, Morocco are in complete control, up 2-0 and largely dominating the match. Two of our four Semifinalists are now through in Senegal and Morocco. Tomorrow will pit Ivory Coast versus Egypt, and Algeria versus Nigeria.

 

Up until 2022, Mexico was a perennial R16 team. And even in 2022 they went out with 4 points. Over the last 30 or so years Mexico has certainly been the most consistent second tier team, seeing the second round in 7/8 world cups. Though given their current lack of quality, I would not bet on them making it this time, especially with the extra knockout round.

 

I should have explained better. The poster I was responding to mentioned how Cameroon historically has been more or less a one off in terms of impressive QF or deeper runs WC side. I kind of dug into history looking for any non big dog teams that have done it more than once, and it's basically only Croatia that's done it the past 40ish years more than once among non-big dog teams. Plenty of teams have become R16 capable, but making runs to the quarters or semi's? Pretty much all the cinderella teams who did it, did it just once since the 1980's. Bulgaria, Cameroon, Turkey, Senegal, USA, South Korea, Ghana, Costa Rica, Morocco. None of them have done it more than their one off run. The only exception is Croatia, who have deep runs in 1998, 2018 and 2022.

Go back further and you can find more, but that's largely because international soccer and the WC itself were fundamentally different in the 1930's, 1950's, 1960s etc. Back then there was Hungary which was actually a big dog, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, which has 4 semifinal runs, but 3 of them were numerous decades ago. There are two I forgot though. Belgium made Semifinal runs in 1986 and 2018, and Poland did the same 40+ years ago in '74, and '82, but yeah, Croatia's the only one which has done it the past 40ish along with Belgium, if you expand out to 50 years, you can add Poland, but after that, you have to scramble around in the world of pre-WWII WC's to the 1960's (which would open Portugal's runs (1966 and 2006)....

In the end you could make a good chunk of money just betting any surprise team is likely to lose at the QF level in most WC's. It's exceptionally rare that it doesn't happen, in recent decades, it's just Sweden in 1994, and Morocco and Croatia 2018 and 2022 that have done it, and countless others that literally just about always fall at the QF round level.

 

Was actually at the Mail v Senegal match in Tangier. My first ever AFCON match. Good stadium, but a pretty poor match... even worse video lol....



I guess most people were getting ready to watch Morocco later in the day. Was pretty cool being there while Morocco were playing, the whole city basically stopped and everyone had it on. Afterwards, people outside honking horns in the street. Couldn't get a ticket for the Rabat Morrocco v Cameroon QF, but was glad to be able to attend this match at least.

 

I've heard the athletic staff and the South Africa coach refer to it as a sterile, ---- AFCON environment (the SA coach was significantly more negative and direct in his criticiscm, theathletic guys were more comparing it negatively to the fun and joy of the Ivory Coast hosted tournament of early '24), so it doesn't surprise me that it may have been blah, and then on top of that it appears you attended the worst of the four quarterfinals as well in terms of entertainment value.

For anyone curious, like I've been about the afcon (been interested the past 15 years or so, since Zambia's miracle run nearly 30 years after their team was killed in a plane crash in '93), the QF's went according to expectations with one difference in terms of results:

Senegal escaped Mali with a 1-0 victory, and it was ugly as hell, Mali got a red card near the end of the first half and fought well, while Senegal looked pretty awful. I'm a Senegal booster, and they've played much better in this tournament then they did Friday, but if they play like that at the WC, in the group they're in? They are in serious danger of crashing early.

Morocco beat Cameroon 2-0. Cameroon had a strong claim for a PK when it was 0-0 denied, there's growing murmuring amongst fans that Morocco is getting a ton of home town cooking. Regardless, they were the better team in the match, 2-0, but man, that penalty would have definitely changed the direction of game early.

Saturday's games opened with a shocker, at least for me:

Egypt Erupted early against Ivory Coast, jumping out to a 2-0 lead at a touch past the half hour, Ivory Coast would fight back and grab an equalizer right before halftime. But soon after the 2nd half kicked off Egypt would regain a 2 goal lead via Salah. Ivory Coast would fight back again to make it 3-2, but simply couldn't find that equalizer in the final 20+ minutes and Egypt advanced to the semifinals. This game pretty much went 1000% against what I expecting both in terms of the victor and how the game was played. I expected a tight, defensive game, that Ivory Coast would win simply because they're better, but instead it was an open game, end to end attacks, 19 shots, 9 shots on target, nearly 2 goals of xG, which doesn't sound like a lot until you realize that nearly all Egypt matches against top opposition end 1-0. I was just stunned. Sad to see Ivory Coast crash out, I'm not a fan of Egypt, but I'm happy for Salah.

The Afternoon game featured Nigeria taking Algeria to the woodshed, which as someone who was couch-outraged at that Algerian idiot Amoura mocking the Lumumba Statue DR Congo fan, was greatly pleased by. Karma was served. They of course couldn't handle the --- kicking and lost their minds post-game chasing the refs around which seems unsurprising considering the previous tactlessness. Hopefully they come correct in the future and Karma will be less cruel. The scale of the --- kicking needs to be noted, they beat the ever living ---- out of Algeria in this game, and only some sketchy finishing kept the scoreline to 2-0. Nigeria easily could have won this 4-0 or 5-1, they created numerous chances, and the xG backs this up (3.36). Algeria created largely nothing (0.13). For Algeria, this had to be deeply alarming, the WC is going to be far more difficult than a group stage featuring Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, and Burkina Faso (granted they had a very difficult knockout path: DR Congo (whom they beat in the 119th minute of ET, followed by Nigeria, and if they'd won that match, it would have been Morocco next: a true murderers row for AFCON), but Algeria drew the group of life, so this all may be immaterial, there aint a team in their group beyond powerhouse Argentina that scares anyone (the other opponents are Austria, and debutant Jordan). As for Nigeria, this has been a fabulous run so far, with them clearly the team of the tourney, about to meet the powerhouse favorites and host Morocco in the SF's. It won't make up for inexplicably failing to top a group whose best teams beyond them were South Africa and Benin and Lesotho (nations they combined to beat only twice out of 6 home and home matches in total), and then crashed out against DR Congo despite taking the lead in the opening 2 or 3 minutes, but it is a great stepping stone for getting things sorted, confidence restored and qualifying for WC 30 four years from now.

The Semifinals match up....
Senegal vs Egypt and Morocco hosting Nigeria.

I've got a Senegal vs Nigeria Final, which would kind of be an upset, but I do think they are the best two sides. But man, I don't know what Egypt is at this point, we'll see with Morocco, they should win it all, but Nigeria has definitively looked better.

 

Senegal vs Egypt is at the half and unlike the Ivory Coast-Egypt offensive explosion, this game seems to be the defensive struggle people have envisioned. Senegal has had the better of the ataacks (4 shots to 0), but probably the biggest issue thus far is that 3 different players have drawn yellow card exclusions from the Final if they make it, including 2 of Senegal's and one of their Key players. Will be interesting to see if Senegal can get a breakthrough in the 2nd half.

 

Ugly play by Egypt. They defended the entire match then suddenly came alive when Senegal score in the 78 minute. Their diving antics throughout the match was also annoying.

What is certain is that no matter who Senegal meets in the final it will be a final with 2 attacking sides, so should be a good match. I hate the type of negative football Egypt played. Glad they are out.

 

Me as well, I am pretty shocked at their victory over Ivory Coast over the weekend. Maybe I overrated them a bit, the write ups seemed to suggest this is more of a complimentary side lacking in the dynamic superstuds that made Ivory Coast such a powerhouse from 2004-2015, but Egypt has so consistently been defensively oriented and efficient but not special that I simply couldn't see them getting that far, I presumed that the best sides to me are the Sub-Saharan powers (Nigeria, Senegal, DR Congo, Cameroon) and a couple of North African sides like Algeria, and Morocco. I didn't rate Tunisia or Egypt as well, Egypt's getting old, Tunisia seems maybe improved, but I've never really rated them and as a result I was shocked that Egypt was able to get through though truth be told, their path wasn't that difficult until the QF against Ivory Coast....they struggled with Zimbabwe needing an injury time goal late to pull out a victory, needed a late goal in the 1st half via penalty to beat South Africa, and drew lowly Angola, and then in the knockouts needed extra time to beat Benin. They basically produced one quality performance in six AFCON matches (I'm probably being unfair with regards to their R165 match against Benin, they were legit good in that, but so were Benin. So yeah, with this crummy performance, I'm still seeing Egypt as a bit of a weak sister far too dependent on a player or two for results otherwise they are basically just another defensive/efficient North African side lacking in the dynamic qualities likely to scare WC sides in six months (I thought Algeria would be a better side, and will be paying attention to their friendly results to see just what they are: DR Congo played them straight up in an even match and Nigeria obliterated them, so I am not sure if they are as pretty good as I thought they were, otoh, as previously mentioned, they landed in the easiest/worst quality WC group of the WC in terms of Pot 3 and Pot 4 sides, so they absolutely should make the knockouts).

 

Algeria pot 3.

 

US looks to be losing both Richie Ledezma and Brian Gutierrez to Mexico.
Both had seemingly fallen out of USMNT contention under Pochettino anyway. These are players who'd be on the fringes for both programs, so...................

You never like losing players from the pool, but these are the types of players that can be inevitable to lose. I mean, they both play for Chivas now.

Obed Vargas is also at this camp for Mexico. He's the only non-Liga MX player there.

Mexico calls up dual-nationals Richard Ledezma, Brian Gutiérrez - ESPN

United States-Mexico dual-nationals Richard Ledezma and Brian Gutiérrez earned their first call-ups for Mexico's senior national team on Thursday ahead of non-FIFA date friendlies against Panama on Jan. 22 and Bolivia on Jan 25.

The Chivas teammates had previously represented the USMNT at youth and senior team levels, with the call-ups to El Tri indicating a potential switch to Mexico ahead of the country's World Cup opener on June 11 vs. South Africa.

In order to be selected this summer by manager Javier Aguirre for the World Cup, both players would need to file a one-time switch that is required by FIFA to transfer federations. A source confirmed to ESPN that the process to file the one-time switch "will be the next step" for Ledezma, while a separate source indicated that Gutiérrez intends to play for Mexico going forward (without noting where he is in the process of a possible one-time switch).

 

I don't care about losing Ledezma, we and he know that he didn't really have any chance at a future with the USMNT, the CM thing never worked out, and he's just not a naturally good enough fullback to break through either.

Guiterrez on the other hand, is a genuine loss. He's one of the best WF prospects developed over the past 3 years in MLS and I've found it quite bizarre that we can't seem to give him looks. It's not that he's in line to be top 3 at WF, but he's definitely in the top 2 or 3 for the position amongst domestic U23 WF prospects. Losing him would suck as it would steal genuine depth from us, and gift it to a team desperate for talent in the attacking space. Very frustrating if he goes through with it.

 

I think Ledezma is a decent enough RB with some upside, but likely to be "just a guy" type. It's tough to get too worked up when we have Dest, Freeman and others. I think this was a depth chart thing more than anything. Mexico's RB depth is terrible and he has an outside shot though I'd warn both of these guys that Mexico will not give them the benefit of the doubt.

Gutierrez has really nice vision and I like a lot about his game, but I think he's stuck in the same realm as a Jack McGlynn. His size and athleticism are poor, and it limits where you can play him. He's essentially a CAM who needs to play winger defensively, and we've got a lot of depth there.

I think he probably ends up as a younger developing Zendejas type that certainly is a pretty good player. But I don't see the upside against a Pulisic, Tillman, Reyna, etc. I'd still take Luna over him as well, though I think it's closer.

I don't know if he ran to Mexico from neglect, or as a business decision (he's undoubtedly getting paid at Chivas) or followed his heart (there are photos of a young Gutierrez in a Mexico shirt).

I don't like losing anyone, but I question whether this ends up hurting us. If we worry that a McGlynn, Berhalter or even a Roldan can't hold their own physically against top flight competition, the concern should be the same for Gutierrez.

I've always liked him so that probably ends up being my biggest bummer; not the analytical side.

I would not be surprised to see neither make the WC squad and neither feature prominently ever. But both have a shot because of where Mexico is and because they both have some non-athletic upside.

 

Gutierrez has been a bridesmaid across age groups with the US.
After playing in the younger age groups, he was evaluated for the 2021 U20 cycle by Mikey Varas, 2024 Olympic cycle by Mitrovic, and with the USMNT by Pochettino at 2025 January camp. Never played with these teams when the games mattered.

Nobody on this board was talking about Brian Gutierrez making the World Cup team. He's not been in the picture.

DO I like him? Sure. There's no reason to not like Brian Gutierrez. There's just not a spot for him.

..............when you look at what position he plays, does he really have a shot with the USMNT program? In MLS most of his games were as an attacking central midfielder, and he could also play on the wings. Are we not calling up Reyna or Tillman or Aaronson to make room for Brian Gutierrez? Then there's attacking midfielders from wide areas like Luna that won roles.

And that's before thinking of the next generation that's going to come thru. Quinn Sullivan played for the USMNT this summer prior to his injury. Quinn Sullivan was having a better year in MLS. Cremaschi was the US Soccer Young Player of the Year. What position does he play? CM/ACM.

These "depth players" are exactly the ones we're likely to lose as our pool continues to grow.

Inevitable. Is it a loss? Sure. We all like Brian Gutierrez. Not an irreplaceable loss, though.

 

I never mentioned nor suggested he's a part of the WC pool, he isn't, he's a part of our depth, and one of the best U23 WF's in the pool that's playing in MLS. He's not the kind of guy we can afford to lose, it's not as bad as losing a Pepi would be, but it's definitely close to Araujo level bad if not quite at that level.

He's a piece we need to retain and we probably could have if Chicago had played ball in '23, and if we could have gotten him some run between '23 and '26 to a camp here, or a camp there, an off year Gold Cup in '23 or '25 etc. Hopefully he doesn't take the opportunity, but there's no question it's a loss. Ledezma is a "who cares," I loved the guy after we upset France, but in the end, he just didn't develop into anything USMNT relevant, Guti absolutely had the look of a guy who'd fit somewhere between WF 4 and 8 on the depth chart in his prime, and to lose him to our rivals absolutely sucks (if it happens).

 

We have never used Brian Gutierrez in a game that matters. Ever. Across any age group. Not as a starter. Not as a sub. Not even in a garbage minute. Not for the U17s. Not for the U20s. Not for the U23s. Not for the USMNT. Not with Berhalter. Not with the interim coaches. Not with Pochettino. Pochettino evaluated him in January camp and passed.

Our program hasn't actually treated him even as depth.

Brian Gutierrez isn't even provisionally cap-tied to the US as far as I can tell. I don't know why that column says he'd need to file a one time switch.

Ledezma would.