2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

They are not who I fear, though they are so sound, they could exploit our naivete like the Dutch did in '22, or we might just run them ragged in transition. Not sure how it would play out. For me the scary Pot 2 teams are:

Uruguay and Colombia: These guys undressed and humiliated us at the Copa America and a pre tourney friendly.

Japan: They are just so much more reliable than we are.

Italy: I just always fear them, even though they suck now at the WC level.

Senegal: The best CAF team for me, over the past 6 years (yes, Morocco was awesome in '22, but I've been more impressed by how good/great Senegal has consistently been for nearly a decade (qualified for WC '18 and tied on points with Columbia, advanced to knockouts in WC '22, back to back final appearances at the AFCON in '19 and '21, before stumbling in '23 to the hosts on penalties in their first knockout match, that host, Ivory Coast, went on to win it all). So Senegal has basically been consistently awesome in CAF for a good 8 years straight. That bothers me. Thankfully their attack has always been meh, it's their defense that is their calling card.

 

They did try the AFC path without much success but I think they saw themselves as more European. They definitely had access to better club competition at the time through Europe rather than Asia.

 

It's also just kind of weird because it's not like their talent is crap.

I mean, sure, they aren't a title contender and they really lack in attacking options, but the GK, defense and midfield are pretty damn strong.

They have no business not qualifying. How the hell do they give up 12 goals? I guess they only lost to a pretty dynamic Norway squad in qualifying, and may still make it ... but they gave up 4 goals in a match to Israel!

 

For me it would be a nightmare draw for personal reasons, being that I am Croatian-American, and it would nearly kill me to root against Croatia, but I will NEVER root against the USMNT for any reason unless it was 100% necessary to avert a world-ending meteor or nuclear apocalypse.

 

Croatia will be a very tough Pot 2 draw for anyone, but I think the one that we all probably want to most avoid right now is Norway.

 

By the way, as much as I dislike this new 48 team format and the weird consequent qualifying tournaments, the fact is that going into the final night of non-playoff, pre-draw qualifiers, there are a LOT of teams whose World Cup hopes are at least theoretically alive tonight.

Seven CONCACAF nations apart from the hosts can dream tonight, though Costa Rica will need nothing less than a win when they host Honduras to qualify (and have no possible playoff scenario), and Honduras will almost certainly need to win in order to avoid elimination, unless host Guatemala beats Suriname by 3 goals. Panama and Suriname both have their fates in their own hands, and Panama at least can count on a seed and first-round playoff bye should they fail to win their group. Jamaica hosts Curaçao needing a win to qualify outright, but both are assured of at least a playoff.

If Iraq beats UAE, they'll be seeded and a first-round bye in the playoffs. UAE could possibly get a seed if they qualify, but they have to hope that Panama qualifies outright. DR Congo most likely gets the other seed.

Half of Europe is seemingly still alive at this point, though the UEFA playoff process in this new format is going to be brutal...

 

Kinda wild that either Honduras or Costa Rica (and quite potentially both) aren't even making the playoff.

 

Yep. CONCACAF qualifying hasn't gone anything at all like anyone predicted. Not one group is currently being led by the top-seeded team with one game left. The Caribbean will definitely have one, maybe two, and (possibly but doubtfully) 3 teams in the tournament.

 

Our pre-WC friendlies aside, almost certainly against two strong European teams, the March window is going to be really damn interesting. The intercontinental playoff involving 6 teams, probably in Mexico (but Florida would be a great place for that tournament, actually, with no altitude worries, easy travel, more than enough stadiums,) and the big, giant 16-team European cage death match for 4 spots. The UEFA playoffs are really going to inject some serious variability into WC draw next month. Two one-off games. Every group at the drawing could draw Italy, or they could draw Kosovo...

 

Norway? You mean, 47,000 goals scored Norway? Or are you only thinking of their starting forward who has a mere 26,417 goals? Seems like a cakewalk.

 

Last check Norway was a Pot 3 team...so we could get both!!!!! But maybe Norway is up to Pot 2 after this window.

edit. nope looks like Norway is in fact Pot 3 based on the twitters

 

Now that would genuinely suck.

 

As someone with many friends from the country, my impression is that it's a cultural thing. Kazakhs had a choice: win more and be more globally relevant in a much less prestigious space (AFC), or suffer but rub shoulders with far greater pedigrees regularly (big clubs and nations coming for UEFA competitions). They chose more prestige. The culture around the game there just values looking good over real substance. There isnt really an ambitious mindset there.

Beating Denmark that one time was like winning world cup semifinal to them. Real Madrid visiting a couple months ago to absolutely dogwalk Kairat was effectively like hosting a World Cup Final. They just want to be in the room with the big dogs, have a place at the table. They know they can be better and more relevant internationally (the Uzbeks are right there, Kazakhstan could certainly match what they have achieved were they to join AFC), but they would never surrender that glow associated with being in the mere orbit of the game's elite. It just means too much to them.

 

Today is the last day of C'CAF qualifiers and things aren't that rosy for the favorites. There are three groups of four. Winners qualify and top two second place go to the playoffs.

Panama and Suriname are tied in points but Panama is behind in GD. Even a win doesn't assure them first spot. However a win will assure them a top third place and automatic playoff qualification. Any other result puts them in danger. Panama do play at home so their fate is in their hands.

Jamaica needs to beat Curacao in Jamaica for first spot and qualification. Any other result for Jamaica and they will be in danger for playoff qualification.

Costa Rica is in serious trouble and must win against Honduras at home and wait for Haiti, Panama and Suriname results to see if they survive. Honduras also needs a win to secure a spot. Even a tie will probably leave them out.

My expectations are that Suriname, Jamaica and Haiti qualify directly while Panama and Curacao are in the playoffs.

 

Norway is #29 in the world right now, they might end up in pot 3 which is nightmare fuel.

 

They'd need to get into the top 21 qualified teams prior to the draw excluding the 3 hosts to make pot 2, right now they're 26 overall (actually ranked 29 but somehow behind all 3 hosts). From a quick look I don't think anyone ranked ahead of them is eliminated, but Ukraine, Italy and essentially Turkey can't qualify directly and will be competing for a spot in pot 4; Austria (home vs Bosnia) and Denmark (at Scotland) both need at least a point today (technically Switzerland and Belgium as well but they're both near certain to lock up qualification today).

If my math is right and Austria and Denmark both stumble that would automatically put Norway into pot 2. Barring that, I assume they'll rerun the rankings 1 more time before the draw but not sure if Norway is close enough to the next placed teams above them (also Denmark and Austria actually) to pass them.

 

Italy will be in pot 4 if they make it

That leaves open the possibility of a Colombia/Norway/Italy group

 

Part of me wonders if its just randomness, because the UEFA results are SO different. They've qualified for all the Euro's, and they've performed reasonably well in all of them too during this downturn. It's a near identical process to qualify, so why was Euro '16, '20, and '24 qualification not a problem, but WC '18, '22 and '26 were?

Euro Results:
'08: 2nd in the Group of death, lost to champion Spain on penalties in the QF's. No shame there.

'12: Tied eventual champion Spain in the group stage, finished 2nd, beat England in the QF's in penalties, beat Germany 2-1 in SF's, smashed by Spain in final 4-0.

'16: Finished 1st in one of the two toughest groups (had Italy, Belgium, Sweden and Ireland), shocked Spain in a revenge match 2-0 in R16, lost to Germany in the QF's on penalties.

'20/'21: They won the whole damn thing, and deservedly over England. Collected all 9 points in the group stage, had a tough road to the final too beating Belgium, and Spain to get there (along with Austria). The Spinnazola injury hurt them down the stretch and probably in qualifying but....regardless, they won this, so why couldn't they qualify for WC '22, while winning the freaking Euro's? Northern Macedonia? Seriously (Interesting underdog today, ftr).

'24: They tied Croatia, beat Albania (who had a nice underdog tourney, and currently are going to the playoff in March), lost to Spain, then lost to a good Swiss team at the R16 stage. Not great, but not horrible.

So yeah? I'm baffled. I can't figure out how they could do this at the Euro's, and yet totally ---- their pants in WC Qualifying.

In '18 it's kind of explicable, they had to go the playoff because they drew Spain, and have really struggled with Spain for decades. But their playoff foe was Sweden, and they got shut out home and away, gonezo, 1-0 on aggregate?

In '22 it was even worse, they drew the Swiss as their big dog, and couldn't handle them, lol, the Swiss are good, but they aren't Spain, or Germany or France etc, and then its off to the playoff and hosting Northern Macedonia, and lol, LOSING. I remember thinking going into that match, that yeah, Northern Macedonia is rough, but Italy can tangibly feel the horror of missing out on WC '18, and they aren't going to underestimate Northern Macedonia, and then, they underestimated Northern Macedonia lol, a side that proceeded to get played off the field for the ticket (Portugal), 2-0, in the following match.

Now in '26, the big fearsome opponent is freaking Norway, a team that hasn't qualified since France '98, and it's not some heartbreaking collections of near misses like the Czech Golden Generation of '96-'06, no, Norway didn't qualify largely because they sucked. So what does Italy do? They get their ----- handed to them by Norway, TWICE, by an aggregate of 7-1 lol. Seriously, what in the ---- is this?!?! So bizarre. And as I mentioned yesterday, well, they did qualify for the WC in '10, and '14 right? Sure, but they got waxed out in both group stages, in humiliating fashion, and won 1 of them 6 matches combined, lol.

 

Kind of reminds me of Wynalda's post this morning about potentially drawing Ireland or Italy if they emerge from the UEFA playoff, and all I could think was: "I'm Irish, just like nearly 12% of the American population (nearly 39 million Americans have Irish ancestry on one or both sides of the family, 7x as many people with Irish ancestry as Ireland lol). I absolutely do not want to draw Ireland, or Denmark for that matter. Would seriously suck (Canada too, but we can't draw them). I have English ancestry, but I hate England, so that never bothers me other than the intimidation factor with them really on a roll the past decade.

 

ahhh man, I just saw that the new rankings won't post until the end of the month.

 

Just strikes me as crazy. They would be playing in the World Cup against these very same teams they want to rub shoulders with, and Japan and South Korea are legit, Australia's pretty good too, the AFC isn't entirely dross (although it's corrupt as hell).

 

But there will be people calculating them ahead of that because the formula is known (or pretty much known). I think @Mantis Toboggan M.D. is right. Norway will jump into pot 2 pretty much if and only if Scotland beats Denmark and Bosnia beats Austria. I doubt both of those are happening.

 

Group A: For me, logic and reason suggest that Panama takes Group A simply because they have an easier match to deal with. I'm kinda shocked Guatemala is an underdog at home, even w/nothing to play for but pride. Their kit man was crying on the field after they were ousted last week after all. I hope I'm wrong, as I'd really prefer Suriname to advance, wonderful Cinderella story. But I think Panama finishes on 12 points, and Suriname on 9 or 10.

Group B: Can Jamaica really ---- this up? Seriously? They host with a ticket on the line against a team that is inferior to them, period, but doesn't play like it. Put on your big boy pants and grab a ticket much like Norway did, after 28 years of waiting and failing.

Group C: This one I definitely think has a chance for the Cinderella result. Haiti hosts the weak sister of the group, and needs to catch and pass Honduran GD if Honduras wins. With Navas playing to also get Costa Rica at home into the playoff or group winner and a ticket status, its hard for me to see Costa Rica losing, drawing yes, I can see that, as Honduras is probably better at this point, but this could be Navas' last ever game at home. I can't see him losing. I think Haiti grabs the ticket, and goes to the WC barring nerves getting them/a stupid red card etc.

 

Speaking of nerves, Iraq 0 UAE 0 right before halftime. I was hoping Iraq would get the goal and stomp out UAE, behind the crowd, I can't watch, but I can't help wondering if they're playing with nerves? Anybody watching that match.