2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

I guess we only got one look at it, but pretty wild the ref didn't take a closer look at that penalty shout for DR Congo

 

I could be convinced neither is enough. To me the WC is very important and living somewhere five years doesn't scream I'm a _________ citizen. The grandparents thing has always seemed odd to me but I know some countries have given citizenship because of it and it's not sports related. So ... FIFA has to either allow the easiest citizenship rules to set policy or step up and curtail involvement by players who don't have very strong connections. I don't think there will be any agreement on however it goes as we all have very different upbringings, experience and thoughts.

 

Good god, Nigeria may have gotten away with a penalty earlier and DR Congo's goal was just waved off for a foul.

Honestly it's been nothing but hopeful crosses from DR Congo so I'm not gonna feel too bad for them if they don't pull this out, but the last hour of this game has been played in Nigeria's half

 

This is going to PKs isn't it

 

One of the more dreadful games I've seen in awhile to be honest. At least I'm bein rewarded with the agony of penalties for it

 

The issue is not that living 5 years somewhere isn't meaningful, it's that it can be intentionally gamed.

I don't have an issue with someone moving to a country, even to play professional soccer, and making it their new homeland.

But what was clearly happening was that players were paid to come there with express intent and reason to naturalize and play for the national team.

It's not easily to write something to distinguish, but there's a very real difference for me.

 

Norway thump Italy on the road. Norway goes to their first World Cup since 98 and they do it in emphatic fashion

 

And Italy goes back to the playoffs, where they feel so comfortable.

Sky announcer was calling Italy an elite team as Strand Larsen was nonchalantly firing the fourth ball into Italy's goal.

 

DR Congo take in PK's. They were the better team on the day

 

Simply a great day of international soccer IMO

 

So, Scotland and Denmark are playing to see which team qualifies directly and which goes to the playoff. Same with Slovakia and Germany. Wales and Northern Macedonia are playing for seeding in the playoffs. Otherwise, Uefa are basically done until March. Am I missing someone? I know Poland has a nonzero mathematical chance, but....

 

Austria vs Bosnia. Austria just needs a point at home, but if they lose Bosnia qualifies and Austria goes to the playoff

Other than though, that's basically it. Kosovo and Turkey technically have paths but it'd require unrealistic goal differential swings in games they're underdogs in, and if Liechtenstein could go into Belgium and pull one of the biggest upsets in sports history, the winner of Wales vs North Macedonia would top that group while Belgium is sent to the playoffs (if Wales vs North Macedonia ended in a tie, Belgium would still win the group in what would be the most muted qualification celebration you'd ever see)

 

Mathematically if Belgium manages to lose against Liechtenstein then the winner of Macedonia/Wales qualifies. Pretty unlikely but it's still there.

 

We may have to deal with the horror of England winning the World Cup on American soil on the 250th anniversary of the revolution. They're looking really strong.

 

I dont know if this true but according to a Reddit poster, DR Congo has passed Iraq in The FIFA Rankings by 6 points.

If Iraq were to beat UAE they'd jump DR Congo, however if they tie and win that playoff via away goals or penalties, they wouldn’t

So take that with a grain of salt, but that could be a potential side plot Tuesday as to whether Iraq gets a bye or not in March

 

One of the best moments I've seen in a long time in Ireland's comeback victory, Ukraine pulls it out near the death, and DRC knocks out a Nigeria that really just pissed away qualifying completely, and Nigeria needs to look at it itself in the mirror, consistently #1 or #2 in talent in Sub Saharan Africa, and their watching a WC for a second cycle in a row. Of course they can look over at Italy, nod their head, and acknowledge that Italy ----ing its pants completely for yet another WC qualifying campaign has well and truly outdone them (even if they still have a chance unlike Nigeria).

 

So Person A has ancestral, historical ties to Country X going back centuries via that grandparent (who they know, and who they have spent plenty of time with in that country along with other family in Country X) and is viewed as a national both by the typical socio-cultural norms of Country X residents (who nearly all have relatives like Person A who reside abroad) and by the laws of Country X (who grant Person A and those like them nationality and a passport)...

...and still, somehow, be less tied to that country than Person B who moved to Country X for work 8 years ago and otherwise has absolutely no other link to Country X. Person B need just show up, stay put for a little less than a decade, and he's leapfrogged Person A just like that.

That's a pretty wild take to me, but to each their own I guess.

 

And ftr, I think DR Congo and Iraq are the best two sides in that inter-confederation playoff. Hopefully they won't be facing one another in a knock out if Iraq qualifies. With how dire the rest of the sides are (Bolivia+Concacrap+New Caledonia), I would rank DR Congo #1 and Iraq #2.

 

It isn't on quite the same scale, but Jamaica should be taking a quick nod that way as well in the (vastly more likely than I wish to admit) scenario that they fail to defeat Curacao on Tuesday.

There was no clearer path to the World Cup this cycle outside of Oceania. No country not named New Zealand had a more feasible journey, and it is unlikely that a qualifying cycle will be this forgiving again for Jamaica. And we are on the verge of watching that squandered.

I am already looking at Playoff scenarios. Maybe all hope isn't lost if we can avoid the DR Congo side of the bracket. But to even be having this conversation is an indictment on Jamaican football. We can join the Nigerians in the circle of misery.

 

With Thomas Tuchel coaching.... I have to believe that the gods don't hate me that much.

 

Y=aX+b

 

Also, if I am looking at this correctly, whichever of Wales and North Macedonia finishes third in the group will still qualify for the playoffs through the Nations League route. Sweden, Northern Ireland and Romania do as well.

 

Meh England's group was super weak, hard to read much into that. UEFA qualifying is a lot less representative of team strength compared to CONMEBOL's league format.

 

No offense, but the sense I have for Jamaica, is similar of the reports going into the CAF playoff, where apparently in one case there was a player strike happening over unpaid wages and general chaos (Nigeria), and another team was basically having a civil war between its fed chief and the Head Coach (Cameroon). In CAF there just seems like a lot of political interference or general just corruption and incompetence at the fed level. Jamaica has always seemed just really, really erratic and messy and lacking in cohesion. On their day, they can go toe to toe with anyone in the region considering the top end talent, what they can't seem to do is string together 3-4+ windows of quiet, consistent, strong performances and that's how you get all these draws and periodic victories over the best in the region, but a bunch of step on a banana peel performances.

I'm sure you know the nuances much better than me, but I've stopped considering Jamaica anything because they can't seem to build a team that coheres and performances systematically well across multiple windows like ever. In fairness, the US generally hasn't since the '14 cycle either, but we aren't anywhere near as helter skelter as Jamaica.

 

Yeah, I completely fumbled that, I had no idea, which could explain some of the teams kind of playing at a lower ebb (although Sweden has just been ----, period).