2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

Have you looked at the qualifiers for these tournaments and likely qualifiers?

A Good Venezuela stumbled during the second half of Conmebol qualifying, and handed over it's playoff spot to crap Bolivia on the last match day. Bolivia is basically a stadium at the top of the world at home, and otherwise, an utter horse ---- team. The last time they were relevant internationally was with Etchevarry 30 years ago.

So the Conmebol side in the tournament is basically a punching bag. Literally the only reason concacaf squads (or anyone else) have to fear the Conmebol side, is if the match is played at altitude where Bolivia would likely be comfortable. Otherwise, I fully expect the playoff spots to go the CAF squad, AFC squad, or a concacrap squad. The CAF squads are either solid (Gabon), pretty good (DR Congo) or capable of being very good and erratic (Nigeria and Cameroon), I think Iraq is a pretty fearsome opponent defensively, I don't really buy UAE at all, the Concacrap squads depend upon who qualifies. Panama pulled a result out of their backside in injury time to potentially save their campaign last time, but we can tell just looking at it, that the Concacrap reps.

It is weird to look at Concacaf though and get a grip on whats going on. Like, how did Panama come to this? They came within one result of winning Nations League 7 months ago, and yet by rights should be behind the 8 ball to Suriname for qualifying for the WC?!?!?! That's insane to me. Honduras ahead of Costa Rica doesn't surprise me too much, both of those sides have been in serious decline for at least half a decade at the youth level, and to a lesser degree at the senior level. Considering Honduras was a top 3 side at NL in '21, I always wondered if their total implosion in WCQ in '21-'22 was more randomness than anything. It doesn't appear to be so, so much as just a bit of a decline.

So whats gonna come out of the region? Looking at it with just one window left I'd give the advantage to, tickets wise:

Group Winners seem most likely to be Jamaica, Honduras, and Panama, Suriname and Guatemala are a bit of a toss up.

So the teams most likely to reach the playoffs seem like Costa Rica or Honduras, and whomever takes second in group A.

I would take all of them over Bolivia except probably Suriname and Guatemala.

So for me anyway, this is a pretty wild playoff situation in which the CAF side could easily be the strongest side, and the weakest could be Conmebol, a shock, but no Venezuela means a really bad Bolivia who can't do anything historically on the road (winless on the road in the '18 and '22 cycles, 1 win in the '26 cycle, that is 27 games with 1 road win).

I would probably power rank Nigeria, Cameroon, DR Congo, Iraq, and Panama or Costa Rica as the the top teams that could be in the playoff. All the CAF teams to me as pretty strong other than Gabon which is a bit of an upstart, and I can't tell. Iraq is a great defensive team, Panama and Costa Rica will be likely playing in North America or Mexico, so they'll have plenty of support. I tend to think Bolivia and New Caledonia will be punching bags. We'll see though.

 

Man if you're Suriname, you have to be shaking your head at this months window. Bottled two winning results in injury time.. 6 points would have seen them either qualify or very very close to qualifying. Boy oh boy, I've seen enough CONCACAF WCQ in my lifetime to know they'll rue those two results.

 

Clearly not!

Panama is a good unemotional example of the craziness of coach evaluation. Christensen is CLEARLY a good coach. He has a good track record, his teams look well organized and while Panama does have an upswing in talent right now, he's clearly part of how well they've played.

And this is a disaster if they don't make the World Cup. What the heck do you do? When was the last time Panama looked this good? Is it bad luck? Has he lost the locker room?

How do you evaluate the guy?

 

They should roll out the El Pescadito in injury time if up by multiple goals. Worked for Cape Verde lol.

 

No doubt, Suriname in particular butchered this window, but Haiti went from a really good situation, to getting shredded on the road and probably getting filled with doubts, heading into a window where they could snatch group winner if they're in the right headspace, but instead they have to have doubts going in, and are playing their home games on the road, instead of at home because Haiti has imploded even more than usual in recent years. Really bums me out as Haiti qualifying for the WC might have done just a lil to help that country come together .

But yeah, Suriname, ouch, just unbelievably brutal. Panama do not deserve the ticket considering how utter ---- they've been w/everything on the line, but you collect the points, you collect the points, Suriname can only blame itself.

 

I think this is a good example of how playing as an underdog and playing as a favorite affect middle of the road teams. The US has had a tough time being the favorite against CONCACAF teams and now Canada is getting some of that (against Australia). Panama has to try and break down teams willing to mostly defend (this is a guess as I haven't actually watched) instead of being the one doing it to say the US. It's really the thing that separated the best teams from the rest. That ability to get goals against any team no matter how defensive their setup when needed.

 

FIFA Rankings Posted today.
For CAF, that makes official what we already knew:
Nigeria will play Gabon.
Cameroon will play DR Congo.

Feel pretty bad for Burkina Faso, that's a good team that somehow always finds a way out of the World Cup. 12th in CAF Rankings for now. Cup of Nations could help, but their draw is pretty rough, if they win their group they probably get Senegal or DR Congo in the R16's, if they lose their group they probably draw Ivory Coast in the R16's, that's 3 of the top 10 or 12 teams in CAF and probably 2 of the top 4 or 5. Ouch.

Anyway, the relevant news for the WC:

AFC:
South Korea, Iran and Japan locked up Pot 2 status, Australia looks like it will be one of the last Pot 2 sides.

The rest of AFC looks likely to be Pot 4

CAF:
Morocco looks like its slipped to Pot 2 officially, Senegal will join them in Pot 2.

The rest of CAF is Pot 3 and Pot 4 bound. Egypt and Algeria are the most likely to be in Pot 3, Ivory Coast and Tunisia have a chance to sneak in because there is a pretty big pile of teams starting with Italy and running into the low 40's out of UEFA that won't qualify opening up more Pot 3 spots for CAF and Conmebol in particular. I think the rest of CAF is probably simply too low ranked to sneak into Pot 3 other than perhaps Nigeria, but Nigeria is going to have to win like 4+ playoff rounds to grab a ticket, and they have looked like --- for all of qualifying so I'm skeptical.

So for CAF it's:
Pot 1: 0 teams
Pot 2: Morocco and Senegal
Pot 3: Probably 3-5 teams (Egypt, Algeria, maybe Ivory Coast and Tunisia)
Pot 4: 1-5 teams (South Africa, Cape Verde, Ghana etc)

Concacrap:
All 3 hosts will get pot 1 status. Woo-hoo. After that, it gets weird because the final group stage is tight as heck in each group.
Pot 1: 0 teams
Pot 2: 0 teams
Pot 3: Costa Rica and Panama if they qualify.
Pot 4: Literally any other side.

Conmebol:
Pretty easy to follow but after the final ranking, it looks like Ecuador climbed into a lock for Pot

Pot 1: Brazil and Argentina
Pot 2: Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador
Pot 3: Paraguay
Pot 4: Bolivia if they qualify.

Oceania:
Pot 4: New Zealand (New Caledonia if a miracle happens)

UEFA:
Pot 1: Spain, France, England, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, last slot is between Italy and Germany
Pot 2: (Germany's on the edge of Pot 1 and Pot 2), Croatia, Switzerland and Denmark if they qualify), Austria (edge of Pot 2 and Pot 3)

Pot 3: Norway-for now, they look likely to qualify directly and are probably a touch to low to climb into Pot 2.

Turkey and Ukraine are edge Pot 2 and Pot 3 teams likely to be in Pot 3 if they qualify via playoff.

Poland will need to win a playoff probably, and then would get Pot 3.

Serbia would be Pot 3, but for now, they don't look as likely to qualify for the playoff let alone the World Cup.

Wales needs to pull at least 4 points from its final matches to climb into the playoffs, but if they do and win, they are likely a Pot 3 side.

Scotland is in a dead heat with Denmark for a direct spot, if they earn it, they're pot 3 with a chance of slipping to Pot 4, same as if they win a ticket in a playoff

Hungary, Ireland and Armenia are separated by 1 and 2 points with 2 games left, with Hungary and Armenia hosting Ireland at home, while Hungary is the only side that avoids Portugal in next month's window. So Hungary, leading this battle for the playoff, also holds the biggest advantage going into the final window. If they win 2nd place, they will be a Pot 3 seed.

Pot 4:
Scotland is in a dead heat with Denmark for a direct spot, if they earn it, they're pot 3 with a chance of slipping to Pot 4, same as if they win a ticket in a playoff

The Czechs, despite an awful loss to Faroe Islands, still have a better matchup for the final match day and should avoid the horror of losing a playoff spot to a team ranked 136th during that meeting. If they qualify, they're in Pot 4.

Basically, UEFA sides likely to be in Pot 4 if they somehow qualify via playoff are all the sides/dregs that are within catching distance of second place, or currently holding that positions like the Czechs, Albania, Northern Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Slovenia, Sweden, Slovakia and Northern Ireland.

Additionally, as previously mentioned, Scotland is fence sitting Pot 3 and Pot 4.

 

There’ll be an argument that Pot 4 is stronger top to bottom than Pot 3, given the European playoff teams + strong CAF team likely to make it from the playoff + Ghana

 

If you're interested in wanting to potentially avoid Italy in Pot 4, you're rooting for Honduras or Costa Rica to overtake Jordan/Saudi Arabia in the rankings and go to Pot 3. For every CONCACAF team that makes it to Pot 3, that lowers the chance that we draw Italy in Pot 4, since we can't draw a CONCACAF team in our group.

Currently, if all 4 CONCACAF teams are in Pot 4, that leave a 1/8 chance we draw Italy*

*This does not factor into account the whole "at least one UEFA team must be in each group." To properly caclualte an exact number, it's probability equations that are beyond me.

In the meantime, here is what I think is the best World Cup Draw Simulator out there:

https://vibedatascience.github.io/world-cup-group-visualization/

My first draw got Switzerland, Egypt, and New Zealand.

 

Apparently Japan is tired of Arabic corruption within the upper powers of the AFC

There’s a rumor that Japan, frustrated with Middle Eastern money and corruption in the AFC, might leave and form a new East Asian federation. 🇯🇵🇰🇷🇨🇳🇰🇵 and possibly 🇮🇩🇻🇳🇹🇭🇸🇬 — if that happens, it could become an incredibly powerful alliance. Interesting rumor 👀😳 https://t.co/g1UeDJFEvS

— Japan Football News (@9aHcp7QTmc65091) October 17, 2025

 

Haiti thinking of moving on from their current coach in favor of Juan Carlos Osorio...

🚨 La FHF envisagerait de nommer Juan Carlos Osorio au poste de sélectionneur national, en remplacement de Sébastien Migné !

Selon plusieurs sources locales, des discussions seraient en cours entre l’instance fédérale et l’entraîneur colombien. Cette rumeur intervient trois… pic.twitter.com/bjB8sz8tNc

— Caleb Jephte Pierre (@Caleb_Jephte) October 17, 2025

 

Congrats to Morocco, the team that knocked us out, for winning the U20 World Cup!!!

Morocco is on quite a heater as a federation. Success at U20, U23, and senior level at the last World Cup. Unbeaten in WCQing for the 2026 World Cup. 8 games, 24 points with a GD of +20. Not a single banana peel game in there. No slip to a T&T level team. They've lost one game in 2024 and 2025 combined.

We beat them 3-0 in that pre-WC22 friendly. They haven't conceded 3 goals since.

I know we all wish we'd beaten Morocco at the U20WC. We're disappointed. Sometimes, though, you have to tip your cap and say c'est la vie. The better team did win.

By the way, their U17s lost the U17 African Cup of nations on penalties in the Final. Crazy.

Morocco is currently ranked ahead of every CONCACAF team, and rightly so. They're becoming a force to be reckoned with!

 

Don't we have a history in U20 of getting knocked out by the eventual champion?

 

'25 to Champ Morocco
'23 to Champ Uruguay
'19 to Semifinalist Ecuador
'17 to runner up Venezuela
'15 to Champ Serbia
'07 to crap Austria
'03 to runner up Argentina.

 

Sounds good to me, although IMO it seems more sensible to just defect to the Oceania federation.

If FIFA goes through with reviving the Confederations Cup, the champion of the new East Asian federation would replace either the host or the World Cup champion in the CC tournament.

(BTW, the flags of the potential defectees represent Japan, South Korea, China, North Korea / Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore.)

 

It's crazy how nobody is talking about that blatantly out of bounds goal by Qatar to beat India earlier in WCQ. They really have no business being at this WC tbh

 

Wow, that's absolute horse ----. To be fair, they had no business being at any WC, they bought their first appearance and based on the video, probably bought their way out of being ousted early against India. Wow, not many saw that, I know I didn't. That's unbelievably egregious, just ridiculous to allow that to stand. No VAR?

 

That's a Qatar home game so presumably at one of the stadia used for the last WC, definitely has VAR capabilities unless AFC doesn't use it at all for WCQs because not every team's stadium has it (CONCACAF did that in 2022 WCQ IIRC)

 

I'm only going from memory but I think VAR was only used from round 3 onwards.

 

That was not one of the World Cup stadiums. That's Al Sadd Stadium, which holds about 10,000 supporters, it was too small to be a World Cup stadium but serves now as Qatar's de-facto home stadium as it's small, where most of the national team players play their club football regularly, is easier to fill up, and has a more intimidation atmosphere. I'm pretty sure they have VAR in the Qatar Stars League though so they should be able to have it there in international games. Actually, I'm sure I've been to games regularly there where VAR has been used.

 

New contender for most corrupt league/nation in the world.

1,024 players suspended in Turkey.

Turkey FA suspends 1,024 players in betting investigation - BBC Sport

Also..................out of 571 referees working in Turkey's professional leagues, 371 had betting accounts. 152 were actively placing wagers. LOL

You wonder about this effecting their WCQing campaign. Maybe none of the players on the national team are involved.

 

Good lord. That's just insane. I was already utterly flummoxed over the two Guardians pitchers suspended, one of which was making bank and about to make a great deal more bank after getting traded to a contender, and now he's destroyed his entire career to fix pitches!?!?! So insane. This isn't 1919, where the players were absolutely justified in sticking it to the scum bag White Sox owner, this is 106 years later when all these guys are making mad $$$ above what they'd be making otherwise. So crazy. You just always want, more, at least in some cases.

 

You're probably right about them being greedy but could some be getting an offer they can't refuse from gangsters / cartel? Do this or we .........

 

Yeah, definite possibility.

 

Here's how tomorrow looks (all times ET)

UEFA Group D: Azerbaijan host Iceland (Noon on Fox Sports 2) and France hosts Ukraine (2:45 on FS2 as well)

France will win the group with any type of result tomorrow, and even if they were to lose, they'd likely still be in as long as they beat Azerbaijan. Race for 2nd is likely Ukraine vs Iceland. Ukraine will clinch 2nd if they get a better result than Iceland tomorrow. If they lose though and Iceland wins they'll be tied on points and Iceland will actually hold the tiebreaker. That'd put Ukraine in a must win situation in Poland (where they're playing their home games) against Iceland on Sunday. Azerbaijan is technically alive, but they'd have to win their last 2 matches against France and Iceland (though both at home), they'd need France to beat Ukraine, and then make up a massive goal differential gap in the process, they're essentially finished.

UEFA Group F: Armenia hosts Hungary at Noon and Ireland hosts Portugal at 2:45

Portugal sitting pretty in this group and will qualify with a win either tomorrow or in their final match at home against Armenia. The race for 2nd is what's most interesting in this group and Hungary is leading Ireland by a point. They can clinch at least a spot in the playoff with a victory and if Ireland loses to Portugal. The Irish need to hope either Hungary drops points away to Armenia or they can get a result off Portugal in order to be within striking distance of Hungary on the final matchday (Ireland plays Hungary in Budapest). Armenia could actually vault into 2nd place tomorrow if they beat Hungary and Ireland fails to beat Portugal, but even if that happened they travel to Portugal on the final day and would probably need a win to hold off Ireland or Hungary

UEFA Group K: England host Serbia and Albania travels to Andorra (both at 2:45 PM with the former being on Fox Soccer Plus).

This one is pretty straightforward. England's already won the group while Albania holds a one point lead over Serbia for the playoff spot, and Latvia and Andorra are out. If you presume Albania will handle business against UEFA minnows Andorra, they will clinch the group as long as Serbia lose in Wembley. If Serbia can steal a point against an already qualified England, it would open the door for them to steal 2nd place back on the final matchday with them hosting Latvia while Albania hosts England (though if they only tie in Wembley and don't win, they'd need to make up some goal differential too and pray Albania can't run it up on Andorra).


Asia Intercontinental Qualifying Playoff: UAE vs Iraq at 11 AM (You need the streaming service Fanatiz USA to watch it legally)

Pretty straight forward, 1st leg of a 2 legged playoff with Abu Dhabi hosting first and then they'll travel to Basra on Tuesday. Winner goes to Mexico for the intercontinental playoffs in March

African Intercontinental Qualifying Playoff: Nigeria vs Gabon (11 AM on ESPN+) and DR Congo vs Cameroon (2 PM on ESPN+). All Matches are in Morocco

Pretty straightforward 4 team single elimination playoff. 2 losers are out, and the 2 winners will meet at 2 PM on Sunday for a spot in the intercontinental playoffs in March

CONCACAF Group A: Suriname host El Salvador at 5 PM on CBSSN/Paramount and Guatemala host Panama at 9 PM on Paramount (also available in Spanish via Telemundo and Peacock)

The funnest group. Suriname holds a narrow lead for 1st over Panama by a single goal scored (they're level on points and GD), meanwhile Guatemala is only a point behind both of them and is the only team left who has both their remaining games at home. El Salvador is the only one in a serious hole, they're 3 points out of first and both their games are away but if they can pull a road upset tomorrow they'll at least have a punchers chance on the final day. Really crucial games for the home teams tomorrow, Suriname probably needs to keep their 1st place position safe since they close out on the road, meanwhile Guatemala really needs to seize this chance at jumping Panama in the standings since Panama closes out the group with a home game. Panama needs to avoid a loss, especially if Suriname end up winning or they'll be out (at least in terms of the direct spot, they could still finish 2nd)

CONCACAF Group B: Trinidad host Jamaica and Bermuda host Curacao. Both at 7 PM with the former being simulcast on CBSSN/Paramount+ while the latter is exclusively on Paramount

Jamaica currently sits 1st with a 1 point lead and 5 goal cushion on Curacao and 3 points behind Curacao is Trinidad and Tobago. This group closes out with Jamaica hosting Curacao so the main questions are can Curacao handle their business as a road favorite against Bermuda and can they get a better result than Jamaica to only need a draw in that final game? Trinidad probably isn't gonna win this group but if they can win tomorrow they'd still have a few narrow pathways to finishing 2nd. If Jamaica wins and Curacao loses Jamaica will win the group (and if Curacao ties Bermuda they'll effectively qualify too as Curacao would need a big goal differential swing on the final day). Curacao just needs to handle business in Bermuda and this group will come down to the final day which is fun for us neutrals.

CONCACAF Group C: Haiti plays Costa Rica in Curacao (9 PM on CBSSN/Paramount) while Nicaragua host Honduras (9 PM Paramount+ and NBC Universo)

Another fun group in CONCACAF. Honduras has a 2 point and 2 goal differential lead on Costa Rica and a 3 point and 5 goal differential lead on Haiti. Honduras can win the group tomorrow if they can win away and Haiti/Costa Rica ends in a tie, they'll also be in solid shape if they win and Costa Rica loses (they wont mathematically clinch but will be in great shape). That's their best chance to do this though, because if they can't get more than 3 points clear of Costa Rica, they have to travel to Costa Rica on the final matchday. Costa Rica still controls their own destiny but in order to force that win and in scenario on Tuesday night, they have to at least match Honduras's result tomorrow. As for Haiti they're likely in trouble in terms of getting that 1st place spot. They need to win tomorrow and likely hope Honduras drops points to Nicaragua (which Honduras is only a -210 betting favorite so it could happen). If they win and Honduras wins tomorrow they'd need to beat Nicaragua, need Honduras to lose to Costa Rica and make up a decent sized goal differential hole. It's not unthinkable that Haiti could murder Nicaragua on the final day (they did just beat them 3-0 on the road) and Honduras could lose by multiple goals in San Jose, but it's certainly not a great position. Haiti beating Costa Rica though would put them in a great spot to at least get 2nd.