2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

Some interesting things to note:

Norway is so far ahead of Italy on GD, that it's difficult to imagine Italy catching them unless Norway botches a home match vs Estonia or Israel, while Italy must wipe the floor with every opponent they face down the stretch. That's pretty fascinating, and exciting to imagine Haaland making a WC, but my god, could it be that Italy misses 3 consecutive WC's?!?!

CAF is fascinating as always, my favorite region to watch and this window has brought some clarity. Nigeria nearly dead and buried, took advantage of the March and September '25 windows to climb back into contention for a playoff ticket for CAF, but they would have to grab it, win the round robin, and then win the playoff next spring just for a ticket, all while largely playing like garbage (even their recent turn around in form, isn't really impressive so much as not awful as they were in the first half of qualifying: all they did was beat Rwanda home and away to kill off Rwanda's brief run of form, draw Zimbabwe at home, and earn a crucial away point at group winner South Africa), to remain tied in 2nd, they'll need Benin to stumble around and fail to grab a home win in a delayed match today.

Group A:
Egypt picked up 4 points head to head with Burkina Faso, and is going to the WC barring something insane happening.

Burkina Faso is reasonably positioned to make the playoff.

Group B:
After early struggles, Senegal took command of B by collecting 4 points head to head from DR Congo. DR Congo, like Burkina Faso (for me, the two best teams in CAF the last 15 years to fail to qualify for a WC), looks well positioned for the playoff. So there's still hope for them.

Group C:
South Africa has won this group. Going into the final window they've got a 6 point lead and don't face anyone they should be nervous about. Nigeria has climbed back into contention, but with Benin currently winning, they'll still be 3 points out of 2nd place if that result holds. It does look like it will come down to the final matchday for both of them, as Nigeria hosts Benin in a match that may determine who grabs a final playoff ticket (or none at all).

Group D:
CAPE VERDE. Cape Verde just needs to pull 4 points from the final 2 matches to be assured of a ticket to the WC. They lead Cameroon going into the final window with a 4 point lead, and both teams have similar remaining schedules, playing a mid table side away and a ghastly squad at home. If they can beat Libya away on the 2nd to last matchday, they are through, but a tie and a win at home against dead last Eswatini would do the job too. They may have to sweat it out if they lose to Libya, however, as Cameroon should grab 3 on that matchday which would bring them within 1 point heading into the last window. It's in Cape Verde's handes, all they've got to do is win one of those final 2 matches and they are going to the WC. CAPE VERDE. To be fair to them, they have shown some spark in recent AFCON's....They qualified for the '22 edition, tied host Cameroon and qualified for the knockouts before bowing out to winner Senegal in the R16, in '23 they managed to beat Ghana, tie Egypt, and win their group, they won in the Round of 16 against a patsy, but were ousted in extra time by 3rd place finishing South Africa. In WC Qualifying a few years earlier, they tied Nigeria in Nigeria, but lost at home, which is why they failed to advance to the final round of qualifying.

Group E:
Morocco is basically boat racing the rest of the group. I had hoped Zambia could make a run but everyone behind Morocco has stunk, quite badly.

Group F:
Ivory Coast grabbed a point away at Gabon, giving them 4 points out of 6 in that duel for first place. I can't see them surrendering the lead, as they host Kenya, and get to play a god awful dead last team away. Gabon looks good for the playoff though.

Group G:
Algeria is winning this group. Technically it's tigher than Group D, but what is interesting is Mozambique. They've made a little bit of noise the past few years, and look set to pass Uganda and grab runner up status. If they scan sweep 6 points in their final 2 matches they could grab a playoff ticket.

Group H::
Tunisia is gonna win this group. The only question is whether Namibia can collect enough points on the road in the final window to snag a playoff ticket. It's unlikely, but possible.

Group I:
I think Ghana has this largely sinched up. 3 Point lead, with the easiest schedule remaining and get to host one of the teams fighting for a playoff ticket or group winner status (Comoros). It will be an interesting battle down the stretch as Comoros, Mali and Madagascar of all nations (currently in 2nd going into the final window) fight to try to jump ahead of Ghana or grab a ticket. Interestingly, all 3 teams will battle one another in that final window, so its all in everyone's hands to advance, collect 6, and you probably take 1st or grab a playoff ticket (Mali).

My Current Prediction:
Group Winners in bold above....

Qualifying teams for the playoff....

For now I'm thinking in terms of most points accumulated:

1. Gabon 23-26 points
2. Cameroon 19-21 points
3. DR Congo 19-20 points
4. Burkina Faso 18 points
5. Mozambique 15-21 points
6. Benin/Nigeria (17 points) Mali/Comoros/Mozambique (15-18 points)

Just looking at remaining schedules, it does look like Gabon, Cameroon, DR Congo and Burkina Faso are the most likely playoff teams, but there are 3 sets of weird teams in groups:
Mozambique could reach 21 points which would definitely do the job, but they don't have a track record suggestive they'll do it, Benin and Nigeria look like they can't get above 17 which looks like it will be short, while Mali and Comoros could jump Mozambique but if they did, they'd still probably stall out at 18 points leading to them battling down to the wire with Burkina Faso for the final ticket.

Lastly while Madagascar looks like a great story right now, their final window involves a pair of roadies against mid table sides who are also trying to grab a playoff slot (Comoros and Mali), and I just can't see Mali losing to them, Comoros maybe, but that would leave them stuck between 17 and 19 points, and considering they're on the road, I think collecting zero or 1 point in that window is the most likely outcome which would leave them on the outside. So for now, I'd have Gabon, Cameroon, DR Congo, and 1 of Burkina Faso, Benin/Nigeria or the 2nd place finisher from group G or I.

I've really wanted surprises out of CAF, but for now, it looks like we won't get many, perhaps one via the playoff (Burkina Faso or DR Congo are more capable of winning it then Gabon, to me, but we'll see), but other than that possibility, the one surprise CAF team will be Cape Verde if they can hold on, and win the group over Cameroon (which they are highly likely to do based on the current standings and remaining games). I'm hopeful we can get 1 more, but I would imagine people would bet on Cameroon taking the playoff and representing CAF in the international competition for the last tickets next year, not sure any of them could hold up against the best of Conmebol and UEFA. Pretty wild to think about it, but it's true, with an expanded WC, we could easily see the two proudest powers of CAF the awoke the region 1990-1998, missing the WC entirely despite expansion in Nigeria and Cameroon, and unlike 2006, they don't have the unforgiving nature of the set up to blame. Nigeria will be ousted because they played worse than South Africa, Benin, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe for chunks of qualifying, Cameroon at least has the excuse that Cape Verde (which has been good in back to back AFCON's and in '22 WC qualifying) grabbed road wins, while Cameroon grabbed road draws instead against Libya, Angola and Eswatini.

 

Halftime: Bolivia 1-0 Brazil : Venezuela 2-2 Colombia

 

El Alto is such a cheat code. Brazil look absolutely sluggish due to the very high altitude and can't be arsed attitude of their players. Bolivia really hasn't been great or good, just decent enough to seemingly flow past Brazil's midfield and defense.

 

Poor Venezuela. They couldn't hold together their early form, and Bolivia inexplicably snags the playoff slot.

For me, the good news here is that maybe an exciting team from CAF, or the AFC will advance, as Bolivia is nothing without their altitude advantage. Looks like the set up is:


Round 1:
Unseeded team vs Unseeded team

Unseeded team vs Unseeded team

Round 2:
Winner of round 1 vs Seeded team
Winner of round 1 vs Seeded team

Who will be the seeds and how will we determine seeding? I imagine New Caledonia won't be seeded, Bolivia is currently ranked 78th, the 3 highest ranked AFC teams are in the 50s in terms of ranking, most likely qualifiers from CAF seem to be in the 50's and 60s. Concacaf sides seem to be in the 60s to 80s...so, seems like concacrap, New Caledonia, and maybe a CAF side or Bolivia will be unseeded?

With only 2 tickets to make the WC available in this comp, I can't help but think CAF, and an AFC side are probably the most likely to advance unless a decent concacrap team makes it.

 

This 48 team World Cup sounds like a great idea

 

Costa Rica might avoid disaster in San Jose against Haiti.

So Haiti came back from two goals down to take a 3-2 lead, but CR managed a very late equalizer, and it finished 3-3.

What a crazy fun window.

 

Anything short of a win is a disaster for Los Ticos.

 

Well, a draw is better than a loss at least.

 

Not to be nitpicky but Cabo Verde only need 3 points from their final 2 games as they currently have a 4 point lead, and one of those games is at home to bottom placed Eswatini so it's looking very good for them.

 

That final CONMEBOL table was pretty interesting.

Ecuador, after beating Argentina yesterday, ended up finishing 2nd in the table.

It was a meaningless game, of course, but its true.

We play them in the next window. They're the kind of team for whom you say "who the hell plays for Ecuador?" Then you look at their lineup and you go "Oh, that's pretty good." They even had Moises Caicedo of Chelsea sent off yesterday.

Just as an aside, both Argentina and Ecuador started MLS players.

 

Theres no official confirmation yet but reports out of Mexico indicate one playoff path will be in Monterrey and the other in Guadalajara.

The latter does have a elevation close to Denver's, which isn't anywhere near LA Paz, but perhaps it could be a small advantage for Bolivia if they end up there

 

Similar age generationally to our guys, at least in the last cycle. I can't say I've followed their roster lately, though. Average age at the last world cup US 25.2. Ecuador 25.6

 

Campagna of the Revs, who was in their squad last night, could make their World Cup roster.

 

Personally, I think it obviously weakens the competition a bit, but it also provides many nations a chance that have been largely shut out entirely for the entirety of FIFA's history. Think of Cape Verde, 580,000 people. They beat Cameroon at home yesterday to take a sizable lead into the final window of qualifying (4 points), tiny Cape Verde, which noone had ever heard of until they ran off back to back knockout runs in the AFCON's of '22 and '23 (and tied Nigeria in WC Qualifying for the '22 cycle) is within a whisker of playing in the WC. That is AWESOME. We have Uzbekistan, repeatedly tripped up in WC playoffs, and AFC playoffs to earn a trip to the intercontinental playoff in recent years, qualifying directly, Venezuela was close to making it 18 months ago before collapsing, now Bolivia, which hasn't sniffed a chance in 30 years, needs to win probably 2 more games to qualify.

It's awesome, to me anyway, to see these nations with a genuine chance, and I'm happy for it. Yes, it will worsen the group stage in terms of competitiveness, but it will probably improve the development of nations around Africa, and Asia, and maybe even concacrap, and that's not a bad thing, and I love knockout games too, and now we have an extra round of them.

 

It's a loaded roster and they're only getting better thanks to their Academy Club, Independiente Del Valle.

Ecuador's defense is damn near World Class and they're not even in their prime yet with Pacho, Ordoñez, and Hincapie. They also have a golden boy in Paez and Zambrano. Ecuador have a very bright and sustainable future.

 

Yeah, I think they're in, but in CAF, I never try to treat anything as "in the bag" things can get really wacky. As an example, South Africa should have knocked Ghana out in the group stage back in '21, but the refs gave Ghana absolutely absurd home town cooking, and South Africa had to watch the WC. Weird things happen, Coulibaly tried to beat out Prendergast and Hugh Dallas in our hearts in terms of incompetence after all.

But yeah, I think Cape Verde is probably 90% through.

I spent a lot of time the past year trying to figure out if Nigeria could turn their campaign around after a horrendous start (ties with Lesotho and South Africa at home, draw away to last place Zimbabwe, and loss at Benin), and now it seems like a waste, as even if they maxed points, looking at the groups likely 2nd place finisher, I tend to think 17 is not going to be enough for a top 4 second place slot. I think Nigeria is dead in the water, which is absolutely ridiculous. They don't even have a terribly difficult group, it's just chock full of decent though not great sides (Benin, Rwanda, and for a while there, Zimbabwe, who've just been horrible instead of just below average) but they still managed to tie 5 of 8 matches, despite only one quality squad being in their group (South Africa).

I think Cameroon, who Cape Verde probably knocked out of a direct ticket, should be good enough to fight for a playoff slot, but it can't be underestimated: trying to qualify through the playoff will be murderously difficult, period. You have to first win the battle for a ticket in your confederation (a 4 way battle), and then you have to either win 2, or if seeded, win 1 heads up match in North America next March. That's a lot of decisive results for teams that basically ---- their pants in qualifying against inferior sides to what they'll likely see in their confederation playoff and the intercontinental playoff next March. The one piece of good news, to me anyway, is that Concacrap and Conmebol will likely send absolute garbage there. Boliva is trash and away from their altitude, I struggle to believe they could possibly advance. Normally I'd say concacrap is equally trash considering Mexico, USA and Canada are pre-qualified) but oddly, Costa Rica is really struggling (Haiti put 3 past them in the 2nd half of last nights match to tie them!!), Panama is struggling, Honduras just isn't what it used to be though they grabbed a critical result. I'm not sure any of those sides save Panama, will scary anyone at this rate.

So for now, it seems like whomever makes it out of CAF, and out of AFC will be favored and probably seeded against the concacrap sides and Bolivia.

 

Do they have a striker yet to replace their old man (who still brought it at Qatar)? That seemed the weak link in '22 (that, and getting thrown into a group with 3 very good teams (the pride of CAF in Senegal, a damn good Dutch side, and them, somebody much better than a lot of 2nd place finishers in other groups was going to have to go home).

 

They do not.. their GF/GA ratio was 14 goals scored, but they only gave up 5 all qualifiers. So I guess they'll live and die by their defense.

 

Of the six automatic qualifiers from Comebol...

Ecuador had the best defense, only conceeding 5 goals in 18 games. We managed 5 goals in just one game against Colombia. Argentina and Paraguay had the second best defenses with 10 conceded.

Ecuador only lost 2 of 18 qualifiers. Arg lost 4. Brazil was the worst with 6 losses.

 

Cape Verde are 99% in.. they literally only need to beat Eswatini at home, whom are one of the worst teams on the continent... That would take the biggest collapse known to man to not happen. Or some Grand Scale witch craft to which we've never witnessed before.

 

I think the key reason I think it's not 99% is that there are simply too many ways a result can go wrong. If you get a red card against a bad team, can you lose? Yes. Can you end up with a draw? Yes. A red card alone would complicate their chances quite easily. There's also the "Greg Norman" choke factor, we've seen countless sides freeze up and fail at the cusp of success. At the end of the day, they need to get a ball in that net, legally. We were at one point a half away from getting knocked out in the semifinal round of qualifying for the 2002 WC. We flat out couldn't find a goal in Barbados if memory serves. Finally early in the second half we found one around minute 50 and then they poured in as the pressure release valve finally let loose. Just 2 years ago we were up a man for an hour, at home against a ghastly T&T side and didn't find our goal until a miracle backwards kind of back heel by Pepi went in in the 79th minute. Then the pressure valve released. These things can happen.

Until they score, they will sweat, and sweat, and sweat because so much hinges on putting that bad team away and the goal mouth will look smaller and smaller, like a team playing against a hot goalie in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, you start thinking there is no place the ball will go in. Additionally, If you look at their results, Eswatini has lost by 1 goal, 2 goals twice, and 3 goals in their away games against Angola, Libya, Mauritius and Cameroon respectively. To my mind, that's not T&T, that's a team that's playing games relatively tight. They've given up 14 total goals, despite how awful they may be, in 8 games, less than 2 goals against per game. Hell THEY TIED CAMEROON AT HOME, so do I think Cape Verde is gonna get this done? Yep. Do I think it's 99% No. Indeed, if someone put together the math, it would likely be what, 85-95%, Eswatini absolutely sucks, but they keep games relatively tight. They are not Myanmar, or Grenada, or San Marino. I will be shocked if they don't get it done, and I will be HUGELY disappointed, but yeah, they should get it done, but what are the odds they don't? Probably 1 in 20 to 1 in 40, that's more than 1%, red cards alone could derail it, corruption, who knows.

 

Germany still with a decent chance to qualify first in their group, but after their loss to Slovakia, they likely have dropped out of the top 9 in the FIFA rankings. For now, they are in most likely in Pot 2 in the draw.

 

Good recruit for Haiti. Former teammate of Chris Richards at Palace, and just recently moved to Lens. Haiti isn't in an easy qualifying group with both Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

🔴 Odsonne Édouard a donné son accord pour jouer pour Haïti avant la fin des éliminatoires de la Coupe du Monde 2026 !

Selon Dynamique Info Sport, l’attaquant du RC Lens a dit oui quant à une éventuelle convocation parmi les Grenadiers très prochainement. 🇭🇹 pic.twitter.com/Cv4S6ePwH5

— Caleb Jephte Pierre (@Caleb_Jephte) September 10, 2025

 

Ehhhh he's not exactly that much better than Duckens Nazon but this guy on the other hand...

Wilson Isidor, a striker for EPL club Sunderland, has reportedly given his verbal consent to join the Haitian national team next October. According to exclusive information from Sport Passion Info, he is ready to board the Grenadiers trainhttps://t.co/Ne6mDS6Nlc pic.twitter.com/JyN0CralsP

— Sunderland AFC News And Banter Page (@sunderlandafc11) September 11, 2025

 

What a story that would be. They need to figure out how to clear 4 points at least from the roadie to Honduras, and the home match against Costa Rica, but they don't have the worst positioning, it just hurts them that they tied Honduras at home in their first game, but man, they could pull something off there. I remain stunned at what they did AT Costa Rica.